J.R. Smith to meet with Cavaliers this week
July 21, 2015Mark Shapiro’s Indians, movies and body switch movies – WFNY Podcast – 2015-07-20
July 21, 2015When the Cleveland Indians were at their peak from 1995-2001, they had the biggest, baddest offense in the league. It was a glorious time to love the sport of baseball in Northeast Ohio.
During that seven-year stretch — the height of MLB’s steroid era — the Tribe ranked top-two in baseball in total runs, doubles, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage1. But in more ways than one, that run of excitement can never be repeated again. And it has spoiled us about standards for elite offensive production in today’s game.
It shouldn’t be news to anyone that offense has gone down league-wide since the years of Bonds, McGwire and Sosa. And yet, it is difficult to break our archaic definitions of what it means to be a great hitter. In my memory, the hallmark of a great slugger always seemed to be hitting these marks: .300 batting average, 25 home runs and 100 RBI.
If your cleanup hitter wasn’t producing those types of numbers in the late ‘90s, then odds are your team wasn’t very good. And certainly, the Indians had their fair share of Hall of Fame-worthy sluggers. Heck, if you throw in Travis Hafner’s 2004-06 run2, then fans were spoiled even longer to players consistently reaching those mostly arbitrary and very lofty milestones.
But as strike zones evolved and steroids disappeared from the game, offensive statistics fell and now our standards must go down with them. That is what brings me to everybody’s favorite punching bag, Carlos Santana. Yes, he is having his worst career season at an unfortunate time for the disappointing 2015 Cleveland Indians. He’s the perfect scapegoat for the team’s myriad of issues.
Let’s run down the list of typical complaints about Carlos Santana: He was good offensively for a catcher, but not so much for a first baseman. He’s very bad defensively, as CJ Nitkowski stated this week. He’s horrendously awful in clutch situations and pads his stats with the bases empty. And besides that, he’s always preferred to just draw walks rather than drive in runs.
I’ll go down the list of topics quickly before returning to my original point. From 2011-14, Santana ranked 34th with a 127 wRC+. Sure, he might not be the best hitter on any given team. But out of the 286 qualified hitters, he was a dang good one and worthy of All-Star consideration almost every single year from his bat alone.
Over the past two seasons, his -0.1 UZR/150 ranks 19th out of 31 first basemen with 750 innings played. Yes, some other statistics such as Defensive Runs Saved are less kind to him. But he’s improving and mostly average at the position, which just happens to be the least important one defensively. The left side of the team’s infield was a far bigger worry.
It is very true that Santana has struggled with runners on base this season. He has a .826 OPS with the bases empty compared to .658 OPS with runners on base. But the opposite actually was true throughout his career until this year. From 2011-14, he had a .761 OPS with the bases empty and a .855 OPS with runners on base. So I’d throw this one, at least partially, to small sample size and/or randomness.
Now, let’s talk about drawing walks and driving in runs and those arbitrary milestones from above. Carlos Santana is not the perfect offensive player. During those four previous seasons, he was 34th best at hitting baseballs. This is very valuable. But it does mean he has some slight flaws. Heck, almost every single player in the game has flaws – excluding Mike Trout. One of Santana’s “flaws” for a long time has been that he’s not a classic home run hitter.
Before making a big splash for the Tribe in 2010, Santana played in 527 minor league games with the Dodgers and Indians organizations. Per 150 such games, he slugged only 21.6 home runs. Yes, that improved in his final months before the call-up. But his swing always reminded me of more a singles/doubles hitter than a traditional power bat. His value would be in hitting 30 doubles and his incredible batting eye. Batting average, not entirely.
In 2009, he broke the Akron Aeros franchise record with 90 walks. He walked 82 more times in only 103 combined games in 2010 because of his knee injury. He drew 97 free passes in 2011, 91 in 2012, 93 in 2013 and a non-Jim Thome franchise-record 113 in 2014. Among the 1,858 players with 3,000 career MLB plate appearances, his 15.7 percent walk rate is 30th-best all time. It’s an incredibly elite skill.
Revisiting those staples of yesteryear — .300 average, 25 homers and 100 RBI — I never really expected prospect Carlos Santana to regularly reach those marks in the major leagues. It’s because it’s very difficult to predict anyone inwin 95 games: Those seasons are rare and projections usually trend far closer to the mean.)). Here’s a quick look at what I mean.
The stat above shows the average number of player-seasons over various stretches of recent MLB history. The 1994-95 seasons are excluded because of the strike. It then goes back to 1982, before the previous shortened season of 1981.
What do I see? That 25 home run seasons aren’t as common as they were during my youth, during the run of those great Indians offenses. And that combinations of 25 home runs along with a .300 batting average and/or 100 RBI are quite rare too. Again, this shouldn’t be surprising! We’ve all been lamenting about the Great Offensive Recession for years. This isn’t just a macro issue, it’s also a micro one in player comparisons.
Yes, the Indians in particular have struggled to find these types of power hitters at all, let alone one without any kind of wart. One of my favorite summer hobbies is remarking when certain players hit their 27th home run so I can share this stat:
Giancarlo Stanton has 27 HRs and hasn't played since 6/26.
Most HR by an #Indians player since 2009? That'd be 27.— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) July 16, 2015
The Indians could use a major slugger. So could every team. They’re naturally more difficult to find in 2015 than they were 10-20 years ago. They’re naturally more expensive to acquire, since there’s even greater scarcity. And of course, it also goes to show how a player like Carlos Santana can unconventionally work the count on his way up to the top-40 of MLB offensive players. This is despite being a relative disappointment for fans from his uber-hyped prospect days and 2010 breakout.
When the Indians signed Nick Swisher pre-2013, he was supposed to fill this slugger void. At the time, I remarked how consistent his offensive production was. From 2005 through his debut Cleveland season of 2013, for nine consecutive seasons, he had at least 21 doubles and 21 home runs each year. David Ortiz was the only other MLB player to do that during that stretch. Only Ortiz, Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre had more combined doubles/homers during those years.
And then injuries happened. The Indians now are saddled with the remainder of Swisher’s $15 million this season and $14 million this season. Who knows what type of production, if any, they might get in return. That kind of money — necessary to procure a rare free agent slugger with a substantial track record — can be a killer to a team with a budget under $100 million.
So when we talk about sluggers and great offensive talents, know that Carlos Santana is a great offensive talent in today’s game. He’s having a bad, for his standards, 2015 season. He’s still a valuable player and will continue to be so for the Cleveland Indians. Finding the ideal version of a traditional cleanup hitter can be near impossible in today’s league. They just don’t exist like they used to. And it can be very costly to try and find such a player.
- To boot, Cleveland also ranked fourth in stolen bases and fifth in stolen base percentage during these seven years. There’s absolutely no reason why Kenny Lofton should have missed the cut on his first Hall of Fame ballot year. [↩]
- During those three seasons, Pronk ranked third in wRC+ at 167. The only two qualified batters above him? Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols. [↩]
19 Comments
If I was the Indians GM I’d be fielding offers for Carlos Santana all day every day. If he’s so valuable let the market show it. Personally despite all these analytics I just don’t see it. If the Indians could parlay Santana into a few players who could address other needs I think they’d be crazy not to do it. If they can’t get anything decent back then keep him.
The refrain is getting a bit old that the Indians haven’t filled the need for the white whale. The guys who bring power that they can afford tend to come with downsides. (see Moss) They spent as big as they could to get Swisher, who was a switch hitter with some power. Gomes hit 21 home runs last year from the right side of the plate, and he and Santana together combined for 48 dingers. Albert Pujols isn’t walking through that door. The Tigers gave Miggy $30M/yr. until he’s at least 40. The Indians don’t swim in that pool and it’s not Shapiro’s fault. (or the Dolans’, frankly)
Good thoughts about the shifts affecting him. If he or any other player can’t adapt nor adjust they will be out of the league soon enough. I find it hard to believe that a professional can’t work on sticking his bat out on occasion to beat the shift.
Defenses can play the 3B to stop the bunt, then still shift. Big pull hitters are in a tough spot because they have to completely change who they are as hitters and what got them into MLB to change their swing. But, as Jacob notes, they might not have to change to be valuable either (as Santana has been valuable).
As long as that great hitting instructor is in no danger of losing his job maybe he can work with these guys on being able to simply hit the ball where it’s pitched. It doesn’t require a major change fundamentally to be able to hit the ball the opposite way or even up the middle but it does require you to be able to put the bat on the ball and take it where it’s pitched. Most often a pitcher will miss his spot the problem is other then Kipnis and Brantley the Indians don’t have anyone who will simply go with the pitch. In that win over the Reds in extra innings where Cueto was walking everyone the Indians left 18 runners on base. 18. That’s a disgrace. No wait that’s become the norm for the Indians.
I don’t think it is so easy for a dead-pull hitter to change his approach/swing enough to just take the ball where it is. Perhaps some can change, but it’s going to take a ton of work to do it and we don’t know if these guys are. Plus, Santana is far from the only pull hitter on the Indians.
They should have started with him three or four years ago maybe by now he’d at least be able to go the other way 35% of the time.
They tinkered with his stance and swing a bunch in his first three seasons, and it mostly just messed with his timing. It’s on him to get better but it really is rare for somebody to be able to completely change their approach. Guys who can do that based on the situation are really special hitters.
Also, when you have that tendency and they use a shift the pitcher generally offers up stuff designed to encourage any hits to go that way, so it’s not just as simple as going with the pitch. Clubs are using shifts a lot because they work.
Still, I’m occasionally curious what would happen if he started choosing the side of the plate based on base runner positioning rather than platoon advantage. I’m waiting to see a switch hitter bat right handed against a RHP just because there’s a runner on 1st and the 2nd baseman has to stay home.
That’s a very interesting idea changing which side to bat from based on not who he is facing but the situation. I wonder if Ty Van Bungalow ever thought of it? Perhaps we should email, Tweet him.
Kind of a off the subject, but is there any specific reason why Tom Hamilton is so anti-Carlos Santana? I listen to a lot of games on the radio and Hamilton makes it no secret that he’s frustrated with Santana. He’s even emphasizing lately how Francona is getting impatient with Santana as well.
because he, like everyone else, misses Victor, and Sandy, and 2014 Yan Gomes who was presumed to be the second coming of Mike Piazza. Carlos is the reason we traded Victor.
Advanced statistics advocates are wrong. Walks are not useful. If this team’s abyssmal RISP numbers have proven anything it is that getting on base is not helpful either. You need hits to advance runners and get them home. Being able to not swing at balls does not mean the inverse is true (that you can connect with strikes).
It is interesting to me that just about every writer at WFNY jumps to Carlos’ defense, every other writer who mentions him locally or nationally does so with disdain/disappointment. Is there a SABRMetrics kool-aid pitcher in the staff offices around here? 😉
David Murphy just swings for contact. He doesn’t try to push or pull.
Carlos Santana is having a disappointing season, no doubt. The amount of disdain for this season is ludicrous though IMO. And, he is demonstrating in July signs that he is breaking out of his power slumber.
Getting on base does matter. You cannot score runs if you do not get on base. Walks are not as valuable as hits. You usually do not advance runners (or yourself) more than 1 base on a walk (outside Little League).
I am open for the discussion on if walks are over-valued by some metrics (I think they are), but walks do matter. Just ask Cincinnati.
I love Hammy for many reasons, but he looks at the old-school numbers and does not venture much past them. He sees that batting average and goes all Brandon Phillips on Santana.
No doubt everyone is a little frustrated that Santana has not been his normal self this year though.
Ask Cincy because they base-loaded walked in four runs, or because of their 42-51 record? 🙂
I agree walks are probably over-valued by some metrics, but just to further the point – much of the time a single will only advance the baserunners by one base too, so the only time it is less valuable is really when 1st base is open or a runner is on 3rd and 2nd is open. You could make a case for runners on 2nd scoring from a single sometimes, but I’d wager it’s not the most common outcome. The one variable I’m not really sure how to account for is a runner on first going to 3rd on a single, and I’m not sure where to look to find out what percentage of the time either of the two above scenarios happens. However, if we just look at the times we KNOW a single would have been more valuable than a walk for Santana’s career we find this:
Career PA’s: 3132 (we’re interested in BB’s, so it makes sense to use PA instead of AB)
Runner only on 2nd: 285
Runner only on 3rd: 102
Runners on 1st + 3rd: 90
Runners on 2nd + 3rd: 81
Those situations only make up 17.8% of his total plate appearances. In fact, 52.8% of his plate appearances have come with empty bases. (1655) In those cases, a walk is exactly the same as a single, and he’s done that 255 times so far. If we use only that specific scenario and count them all as base hits, his career batting average jumps from .246 (H/AB) to .285 (H+bases empty walks/PA). If we run that same calculation on this year alone, he jumps from .228 to .258, which is still disappointing but still demonstrates the value of those walks.
On the other hand, you could probably look at the times he walked when it was of less value than a single, but you would need a lot of data about average outcomes for all kinds of different scenarios and some advanced math to try to create a situational comparative value matrix. (somebody want to get published?)
they would be 43-50 w/o those 4 walks 😉
and, perhaps their record would be even better if they didn’t issue the 2nd most walks in MLB (Rockies worst)
yes, exactly.