WFNY Stats & Info: Statistical Mythbusters on Cavaliers-Warriors

Oakland, California is the place to be, as the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Golden State Warriors tonight in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. There are many statistical and passionate preview pieces along with some fantastic write-ups to help Cavs fans brush up on the Warriors team. However, as the national media and fans have held discussions, there are many narratives that have been carried forward. Therefore, it is necessary to take a logical look at some of the narratives and determine if they are based on truth or myth.

Narrative One: The regular season Cavs were mostly just LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love

J.R. Smith does relatively well in the VORP category and Timofey Mozgov kept pace with Kevin Love in the WS/48 and PER categories. However, the only three players to do well in all three advanced statistics were LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love.

Myth or Truth?

Truth

Narrative Two: The playoff Cavs are mostly just LeBron

The playoff Cavaliers have enjoyed a much better supporting cast than they had in the regular season. Despite losing Kevin Love, who had himself looked great in his limited time before injury, J.R. Smith, James Jones, and Iman Shumpert each improved greatly to make up for that loss.

Myth or Truth?

Myth

Narrative Three: The regular season Warriors were a deep team (not just Stephen Curry)

The Warriors do not look all that much more impressive than the regular season Cavaliers until the VORP column is noticed. The role players that they had on their team were giving them great value over replacement players, which is why their depth was justifiably lauded.

Myth or Truth?

Truth

Narrative Four: The playoff Warriors are a deep team (not just Stephen Curry)

The Warriors depth has not played nearly as well as it did in the regular season. Golden State is still getting value from six players, but the accompanying PER and WS/48 have dropped precipitously. In particular, Klay Thompson has struggled in the playoffs as have the Warrior’s frontcourt depth (Lee and Speights). Curry’s continued greatness has left these storylines mostly muted.

Myth or Truth?

Myth

Narrative Five: The playoff Warriors are a better, deeper team than the Cavs and the only chance the Cavs have is that they have the best player

Stephen Curry won the 2014-2015 NBA MVP award and he was a worthy recipient as can be seen by his superior numbers across the board in the regular season compared to LeBron James (plus, LeBron James missed more games). And, Curry has continued to excel in the playoffs though LeBron James has narrowed the gap statistically. Therefore, it is hard to emphatically state that the Cavaliers even have the best player in the NBA Finals.

However, even without Kevin Love, the Cavaliers’ players have exhibited increased efficiency throughout their depth. And, perhaps the simplest way of demonstrating how even these teams have been playing is to add up their VORP columns (which is the Warriors strongest statistical measure).

Cavaliers combined VORP above = 4.8
Warriors combined VORP above = 4.8

Myth or Truth?

Myth