Ball Played: Sea witch Urshela makes Indians debut in 3-2 loss
June 10, 2015How the Dell(avedova) did we get here?
June 10, 2015“Betting on the success of innovative technologies in the marketplace can carry all the uncertainty and risk that betting on the next card in the deck does at a blackjack table in Las Vegas. There is a factor of randomness that must be factored in, but precisely how to do so is anyone’s guess.” – Henry Petroski
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You know, if anyone could just look up some stats on a website and figure out what’s going to happen in a matchup in sports, then we wouldn’t call it gambling. The Las Vegas sports books were built on the principles of allowing people to put their money where their mouth is, with the firm understanding that most people, quite frankly, don’t know what they are talking about.
Numbers can be deceiving. They can also be extremely beneficial and useful in the right hands, and when used under the right circumstances. Numbers can tell us a lot about players and how they perform in certain situations. They can help teams figure out their strengths and weaknesses, and how to better build a gameplan around those strengths.
But looking at numbers over the course of a season is actually a pretty poor way to predict the outcome of a series. If there’s one thing I’ve learned about sports that I feel is a universal truth, it’s that sports are about the matchups. When people cite Golden State’s incredible season (and it has been incredible, no doubt about it) and look at their stats, they are using stats from an 82-game season and 15 postseason games. Prior to the Finals, only two of those combined 97 games were against the Cavaliers. All those stats against non-Cleveland teams really don’t tell us a whole lot about how they match up against Cleveland.
As Detroit Red Wings fan, I still vividly remember the 1995 Stanley Cup Finals. The Red Wings won the President’s Trophy that year with the NHL’s best regular season record. The Wings tore through the Western Conference playoffs, going 12-2 en route to the Finals. The New Jersey Devils, on the other hand, just barely made the playoffs. As the 5 seed in the East, the Devils never had home ice advantage in any round of the playoffs. Nobody gave the Devils a chance.
The Devils swept the Wings. How could this happen? It was simple, really. It was all about the matchups. The 1994-95 season was a lockout shortened one. The Wings never played the Devils in the regular season. The Wings weren’t prepared for the “neutral zone trap” system that the Devils used. The Devils’ defense forced the Wings to play a “dump and chase” style of offense that they weren’t used to or comfortable with, rather than letting them carry the puck and dictate the pace.
Most people would agree that the Red Wings were the better team that year. New Jersey was just a bad matchup for them. All of the impressive statistics the Red Wings piled up that season meant nothing when it came to matching up against the Devils’ defensive scheme.
Is this starting to sound familiar? For all the great things the Warriors have done this season, none of it really means much with regards to how they matchup with the way the Cavaliers are using their own defensive scheme to bother them.
While the Warriors would have us believe that this isn’t so much that the Cavaliers are bothering them and that they just need to execute better, that might not be so accurate. The truth is, the Cavaliers have the exact kind of players who do the things on defense that bother the Warriors the most. The Cavaliers have athletic and hard working perimeter defenders who aren’t afraid to play physical defense on and off the ball. They have a guy in Tristan Thompson who can slide out on the pick and roll and slow down the ball handler enough for the guard to recover. They have the size to disrupt Draymond Green inside. They have rim protectors who can affect shots in the lane.
Here are some interesting matchup stats for this series: According to NBA.com, against the Western Conference teams in the playoffs, 21.8 percent of Steph Curry’s shots were wide open and 32.8 percent were against tight coverage. Against the Cavs, only 9.5 percent of his shots are wide open and 52.4 percent of them are against tight coverage. 31.9 percent of his shots against the West were catch and shoot, with only 41 percent being pull up shots. Against the Cavs, only 20.6 percent are catch and shoot and 52 percent are pull ups.
Make no mistake about it, the Cavaliers are disrupting the way Steph Curry is playing. They aren’t letting him play like he’s used to, and the Warriors are struggling to adjust to it. Against Western Conference opponents, 41 percent of Curry’s shots came with him touching the ball for less than two seconds, and only 23.7 percent of his shots came with him holding the ball for more than six seconds. Against the Cavaliers, only 30.2 percent of his shots are coming with Curry touching for less than two seconds. And 30.2 percent of his shots are coming with him holding the ball for more than six seconds.
This is a radical shift in the way the Warriors are used to playing. The Cavaliers have taken Steph Curry completely out of his comfort zone. Instead of quick, open looks, he’s taking more contested shots and being forced to handle the ball longer to get them. This may be partially execution on Golden State’s part, but watch the way Matthew Dellavedova is relentlessly staying right on Curry’s hip. Few players have the discipline to play defense like this on every single play. But Dellavedova is doing just that, and the Cavs’ system is giving the Warriors huge problems.
I don’t know if the Cavaliers have the stamina and/or enough healthy bodies to sustain this style of play much longer. But if they do, the Warriors are in serious trouble, because there’s not much else they can really do to free up Curry. If the Cavaliers do wear down, though, as they did in the fourth quarter of Game 3, then Curry will find the slivers of space he needs and the Cavaliers will be in trouble.
Like everything else in sports, the rest of this series is going to come down to the matchups more than anything else.
14 Comments
I’m worried about the minutes and bodies being left big time.
Ugh…did you have to bring up ’95? My hatred of the Devils (Scott effing Niedermayer) has yet to subside.
I thought that the 4th quarter was as much about losing some focus when they ran up the big lead as it was about just being tired. They have kept the defense up in the 4th when they haven’t been able to relax, as soon as they start thinking a lead is safe, the Warriors get right back in it, because crap, if you give this team even a sliver of daylight, they will make leads evaporate in seconds. They were able to turn it back on, but it’s always harder to turn it back on when you let down a little bit. Hopefully they learn from that and can keep intensity up even if they get a big lead.
Agree with all. It’s kind of wild that while the ugly part of all of our injuries is the spike in hard minutes to LeBron and Delly until the battery power light is now flashing red, the match ups are better. If Kevin Love and Kyrie were in, the scores would be over 100 each team, but would the Cavs even be up in the series?
If our race is against fatigue, the Warriors’ race is to regain their equilibrium before by Thursday, or at least get a break to even the series. Because if the Cavs go up 3-1, can they defeat a LeBron led team 3 straight times in the Finals? That, to me, seems as outrageous as anyone thinking last week that we could win a trophy with Kyrie under the surgeon’s knife.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CHJ0bMkWMAEIeET.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p671JaPTdbI
“If Kevin Love and Kyrie were playing the scores would be over 100 each team, but would the Cavs even be up in the series?”
Obviously we’ll never know for sure, but I think David Blatt would have found a way to adjust rotations to make sure Curry was never comfortable, even with Kyrie in. But you’re right, it’s an interesting question to think about.
The Scott Stevens hit on Koslov. The Wings just wanted no part of attacking that trap head on after that.
For those unfamiliar:
https://youtu.be/aYQf9cxzJFg
Reminds me of that famous Simpsons Valetine episode when Bart is showing Lisa the tape of her crushing Ralph on tv: “You can actually pinpoint the second when his heart breaks in half”. But I will forever curse Niedermayer. I mean, what are the odds of that puck coming straight back to him like it did? Game Two in general, just…bad times, man. Bad times.
It was the first real important sports lesson of my life. More so than the Drive, Fumble, Shot, et al. The Wings were just so overwhelmingly favored. I have never been more confident that one of my teams was about to win a Champiobship. It was so freaking mentally jarring watching that series. Can’t even imagine what it was like for the players involved.
The good news is they learned from it. The players bought in to the Left Wing Lock in a much more serious way after this and focused on becoming better two way players. Stevie Y changed up his entire play style to better help the Wings win in the playoffs. He will forever be my favorite athlete of all time. The greatest leader ever. I’m happy for the success he’s having with the Lightning right now, but man it kills me that he’s not part of the Red Wings organization anymore.
Steve Yzerman was and still is one of my favorite all time hockey players!
The dubs will continue to leverage their advantages thusfar- bench depth, Green commiting 60 fouls per 6 foul calls, and our willingness to surrender the post to them to keep their three numbers down. They will try and leverage all of this with multiple illegal screens as often as they can- a gimmick that worked in the 4th last night. We counter this by either getting the calls on the screens, or designing our d so that the last switch ends up putting Delly back on Curry. It should be interesting.
It’s still hard to see him in anything but red and white, and worse now that the realignment puts him in direct competition with us. It’s Ozzie to the ravens all over again. And the fact that they eliminated us this season doesn’t help.
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