Breaking down the Browns 2015 NFL Draft
May 5, 2015Johnny Manziel swaps downtown pad for the ‘burbs
May 5, 2015Grading a draft before the players have been to an OTA1 let alone been given the opportunity to demonstrate their abilities in games is largely panned as ridiculous. In fact, it is difficult to even judge rookies who may initially struggle on the field. 2014 draftees Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel may continue to struggle and join the ever-growing list of Cleveland Browns draft busts, or they might use their rookie season as a wake-up call to turn their careers into successes. However, grading a draft is also a pertinent task as it helps categorize opinions and debate that has been a big piece of leading into the NFL draft.
Or, it at least will provide some fodder for those who may wish to mock my abilities to prognosticate on prospects leading up to the 2016 draft.
As grading a draft is almost purely qualitative, the importance is in acknowledging that it is opinion and creating categories to separate the different opinions. Here, the grades are separated into four headings:
Filling needs: Did the Browns fill the needs that were identified before the draft?
Selecting the BPA : Did the Browns take the best player available according to general consensus?
Intelligent trading : Did the Browns make smart trades according to the Jimmy Johnson draft chart?2
Bode biased view: Did the Browns take players that I personally like and avoid the ones I did not like?
Filling Needs
WFNY’s Joe Gilbert did a great job identifying the positions of need for the Cleveland Browns. He had listed out the needs for the Browns as QB, TE, WR, OL, DL, and OLB. Since we are grading the full draft, I would add in depth at safety, inside linebacker and a kicker.
In the 2015 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns selected the following positions in order:
First three rounds: NT, OL, OLB, RB, DL
Last four rounds: S, WR, CB, TE/FB, TE, ILB, CB
Any draft pick outside of the top three rounds has less than a 50 percent success rate, so it is important to not rely on any of the day three NFL picks to be considered more than depth for the moment. Those late picks aside, it does not appear that the Browns drafted a player to satisfy their need at quarterback, wide receiver, or tight end in 2015. They also neglected to draft a kicker, which will force them to rely on the iffy undrafted free agent market. However, the Browns did fill needs along both lines and at outside linebacker, while adding a potential offensive weapon that fell outside their more urgent needs.
In all, they filled three out of six urgent needs in the first three rounds3 and another two secondary needs in the last four rounds, while providing more potential depth across the team. The Browns did not seem to prioritize need in this particular draft. I do consider building on both sides of the line of scrimmage a need, so I will bump them up half a grade for addressing that.
Need Grade = C+
Selecting the BPA
Steal = Ranked much better than slot taken
Wash = Ranked about where taken
Reach = Ranked much worse than slot taken
Danny Shelton, NT, Washington (Round 1, Pick 12) : Wash. Danny was a late riser in NFL mock drafts despite no interior d-lineman going in the top 10 since Marcell Dareus in 2011. Mike Mayock had Shelton exactly at 12 on his top 100 prospect list and WFNY’s Joe Gilbert cranked him up to 11 on his big board.
Cameron Erving, OG/OC, Florida State (Round 1, Pick 19) : Wash. There were many analysts who panned the pick, but that was based on perceived need more than talent. Cameron was considered a mid-to-late round first-round pick by all major outlets and he went just past the mid-first round. Mike Mayock had him at 26 and Joe Gilbert had him at 20.
Nate Orchard, OLB, Utah (Round 2, Pick 19, Overall 51): Slight Reach. Most major outlets had him listed as a round 2 to round 3 player. CBS Sports had him listed at 69 and Mike Mayock had him at 51, making this the second time that Browns actual selection and Mayock’s ranking were perfectly aligned.
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami (Round 3, Pick 13, Overall 77) : Steal. Whether or not the Browns needed a RB is to be debated, but Duke Johnson was considered a consensus middle second-round pick who fell into the middle of the third round. CBS Sports had him at 56 and Mike Mayock had him even higher at 46.
Xavier Cooper, DL, Washington State (Round 3, Pick 32, Overall 96) : Wash. He was considered a third or fourth-round pick and he went right at the tail end of the third round. He has some great potential though and I almost put him as a slight steal due to CBS Sports having him at 79 and Mike Mayock having him at 93.
Ibraheim Campbell, S, Northwestern (Round 4, Pick 16, Overall 115) : Wash. A fourth-round prospect went in the fourth round. Again, Ray Farmer and the Cleveland Browns did not reach. CBS Sports had him at 127 and Mike Mayock had him at 96.
Vince Mayle, WR, Washington State (Round 4, Pick 24, Overall 123) : Reach. Most analysts had him as a fifth-round draft pick and the Browns took him near the end of round 4. Not an egregious reach, but a reach nonetheless. CBS Sports had him at 150 and he was outside the Mayock top 100 picks.
Charles Gaines, CB, Louisville (Round 6, Pick 13, Overall 189)
Malcolm Johnson, TE/FB, Mississippi State (Round 6, Pick 19, Overall 195)
Randall Telfer, TE, USC (Round 6, Pick 22, Overall 198)
Hayes Pullard, ILB, USC (Round 7, Pick 2, Overall 219)
Collective wash on most picks in the sixth and seventh round. The analysts range wildly on almost all prospects that end up getting drafted in this range dependent upon if they believe that the player will reach their ceiling or not. For instance, Mike Mayock has Charles Gaines ranked 98, while CBS Sports has him ranked 162.
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon (Round 7, Pick 24, Overall 241) : Steal. A special case for this seventh-round pick as most analysts agreed that his talent was in the second or third-round range until he suffered an ACL tear that will cause him to miss the entire 2015 season. However, when teams trade draft picks, they devalue a 2016 pick by one round. So, the Cleveland Browns are acquiring a third or fourth-round value at the very back end of the seventh round. That, my friends, is a steal.
Final Tally:
2 Steals
5 Washes
2 Reaches
BPA Grade = B
Ray Farmer avoided reaching for need and came away with a couple of steals. His ability to draft on talent early is commendable.
Intelligent trading
Well, this category is not as fun as it would have been in recent years as the Browns did not make a trade with either of their first-round picks. However, they did make some interesting trades in the middle and late rounds of the draft. This section will just analyze the value of those picks without looking at the players available or the ones chosen with those picks (as those are pretty much covered in the other categories).
Trade with Texans
Cleveland Browns received: 2015 second-round pick (51), 2015 fourth-round pick (116), 2015 sixth-round pick (195)
Houston Texans received: 2015 second-round pick (43), 2015 seventh-round pick (229)
Draft Chart Says…
Cleveland Browns 466.4 points
Houston Texans 472.5 points
Trade with Patriots
Cleveland Browns received: 2015 third-round pick (96), 2015 seventh-round pick (219)
New England Patriots received: 2015 fourth-round pick (111), 2015 fifth-round pick (147), 2015 sixth-round pick (202)
Draft Chart Says…
Cleveland Browns 120.8 points
New England Patriots 116.2 points
Trade with Cardinals
Cleveland Browns received: 2015 fourth-round pick (123), 2015 sixth-round pick (198), 2015 seventh-round pick (241)
Arizona Cardinals received: 2015 fourth-round pick (116)
Draft Chart Says…
Cleveland Browns 63.5 points
Arizona Cardinals 62 points
In summary, Ray Farmer appears to utilize the NFL Draft trade chart in order to help diagnose the value of trades. Each trade was fair in value for both teams.
Intelligent Trading Grade = B
Bode biased view
This category is simply what I thought about each player in the draft and the strategy of picking them in the spot.
Love : Danny Shelton, Xavier Cooper, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu
Like: Cameron Erving, Nate Orchard, Duke Johnson, Malcolm Johnson
Mixed Feelings : Charles Gaines
Didn’t Like : Ibraheim Campbell, Vince Mayle
Didn’t care one way or another : Randall Telfer, Hayes Pullard
The day of round one of the NFL Draft, I laid out the blueprint that I would follow if I was Ray Farmer and even gave a realistic best case scenario draft in the comments of that post. Ray Farmer started the draft by executing that plan to perfection. Danny Shelton is a player that I termed the defensive line version of Joel Bitonio. He is nimble, strong, and plays angry. He is the embodiment of what a team needs in a nose tackle. There will be worries about his weight, but his tape show a d-lineman who uses his hands and feet to perfection, staying in his lane but still making plays. Danny will command double-teams, which will open up the rest of the line and linebackers to get into the backfield.
Building on the strength of the lines is important and Ray Farmer continued to address that by selecting Cameron Erving at pick 19. My blueprint had suggested moving back a few spots to take Erving, but that had more to do with making what seemed like a luxury pick to improve a strength — while guarding against Alex Mack potentially leaving — than it did with the talent from the Florida State center. He is a worthy pick at that selection and the Browns continued to make improvements to control the line of scrimmage.
Ray Farmer also followed the draft blueprint when he traded down with the Houston Texans and selected Nate Orchard. I do think that Orchard is a good prospect and that it was a sound trade and decision. The only thing holding me back from elevating him into the “Love” category was that I viewed Hao’oli Kikaha (Washington, OLB) as an elite prospect and he was available at our pick before the Browns made that trade.
Duke Johnson was a bit of a surprise in the third round. I had not expected that the Browns would utilize one of their top four picks on a RB, so I did not even mention him before the draft. However, he is a good talent who should immediately be able to serve as a third down back and has the potential to be moved around on offense as well. He certainly has talent and I believe that Ray Farmer must have felt that he would provide a bigger spark to the team than any of the receivers who were left at that spot.
Xavier Cooper is a player that I thought the Browns might have to use the third-round pick on, but Ray Farmer was able to move up later in that round to select him. He may not have been a consensus steal, but he was a steal on my chart because he possesses a strong pass rushing ability and can provide great depth if Des Bryant gets injured again.
Ibraheim Campbell was not a safety I was interested in before the draft. He did not appear fast in games, he was too quick to charge on play-fakes, and he did not possess any one trait that he could lean on while he developing other parts of his game. By all accounts that I have read, he was a leader in the locker room and an extremely hard worker, so hopefully he can prove me wrong.
Vince Mayle is a WR, but he doesn’t know how to catch yet. That statement may seem harsh, but there is a natural flow to catching a football where you extend your arms before the ball is there so that you can cradle it inward as it hits your hands. Players such as Sammy Watkins, Hakeem Nicks, and Larry Fitzgerald are masters of this art. Vince Mayle tracks the ball well, but he is too busy using his arms to box out cornerbacks and he winds up allowing the ball to get into his body far too often. If he doesn’t fix this trait, he will struggle in the NFL.
Charles Gaines is a boom or bust prospect. He has the potential to become a contributor, which is good when you select a player late in the draft. However, he has so many flaws and made so many mistakes when I watched him that I had wanted a few other defensive backs over him. Hopefully, the Browns hit on this prospect.
Malcolm Johnson being selected is a solid plan. He can play FB, TE, and H-back, so he is versatile. Much like kicker, I view making selections of the fringe positions as a good choice because it allows the Browns to get the player that they truly want rather than hoping that player will sign with them as a UDFA.
Randall Telfer and Hayes Pullard are decent picks for late in the draft. They were not on my list as targets nor do I feel as if they were mistakes. They were adequate picks late in the draft. Nothing more.
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is potentially the rare late-round pick that will be expected to seriously contribute, albeit a year later than the rest of the draft class. As long as Ray Farmer stays true to this plan and does not try to cut him and sign him back during Training Camp, then this will have been a great value pick.
Overall, the Cleveland Browns under Ray Farmer once again drafted players that I would have taken, especially in the early rounds. As the Browns have gone through many GMs since their return I, like most fans, have wondered how it would feel to actually have the chance to be GM. With Ray, I feel like this is about as close as I can get to it. That does not mean that success is guaranteed (I was on board with both the Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel selections last year, after all), but it does mean that Ray Farmer is getting a good grade in this category.
Bode Biased View Grade = A
Overall Grade = B+
Grade Recap
Need Grade = C+
BPA Grade = B
Intelligent Trading Grade = B
Bode Biased View Grade = A
The Cleveland Browns executed an overall strategy that saw them fortifying the line of scrimmage early, while not reaching for needs. While they did not garner many steals in either the BPA or trading categories, they also did not make any mistakes. It was merely a strong, solid draft. They get the extra bump in their grade because I personally enjoyed the strategy and the targeted players especially early in the draft.
37 Comments
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks: “Gilbert should quickly establish himself as a starter, while Manziel and Bitonio will push hard to get on the field ASAP.”
CBS’s Pete Prisco: “I like the decision to move up and take Johnny Manziel with their second pick. They have to get a franchise quarterback, so taking a shot on an
exciting player made sense.”
NEO Media Group’s Chris Fedor: “Best pick: Johnny Manziel – The Cleveland Browns finally have an answer at quarterback. Manziel is exactly the player the franchise needs, a guy who can create buzz off-the-field and make the Browns relevant while also fixing the problem at quarterback, which has led to years and years of futility.”
I have not closed the door on Manziel. I left the door open for weeden a little long though.
Thanks Michael. I especially like the “Bode biased view grade”.
Glad to hear you like Shelton. I’ve recently read some negatives about him, but respect your evaluation, which makes me feel better. We all hope he develops into a great player and helps to fix our run defense!
Thank you. I have liked Shelton from the early portion of last season. If you read the same reports that I did recently, then it is somehow was based on the Senior Bowl, which is ludicrous. He played okay in the game but dominated practices by all accounts. Lazy reporting IMO.
https://usatq.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/sheltonstrength.gif
http://sportswire.usatoday.com/2015/01/22/dueling-2015-nfl-mock-draft-how-will-coaching-hires-affect-the-draft-board-new-york-jets-chicago-bears-todd-bowles-vic-fangio-marcus-mariota-danny-shelton/
MMS: Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton is mesmerizing. At 6-2 and 343 lbs., he mauls almost anyone in his way, as the GIF above illustrates. But he’s surprisingly nimble and will be more than a space eater at the next level. He won’t replicate his collegiate pass-rushing productivity, but that won’t matter for his NFL role. It’s almost impossible to build a proper 3-4 defense without a nose tackle, so Shelton should be in high demand. I expect him to be one of the defensive standouts at the Senior Bowl and a top-15 pick.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24986379/senior-bowl-10-prospects-who-helped-themselves
DT Danny Shelton, Washington (6-2, 343)
Shelton entered the week with a good amount of hype and he lived up to the expectations, showing off rare movement skills for a 343-pound body. He also has the upper body power to match, but got away with bullying blockers in college and needs to develop his hand technique for the next level. As the week winds down, Shelton is the prevailing favorite to be the first player drafted from the Senior Bowl rosters.
Really good stuff, mg. I like your methodology as well as your practicality. And I think everyone will love the new BBV metric!
Good solid drafts are exactly what the Browns have needed, but too often not achieved, during this interminably long “expansion-team” phase. Kevin Costner has left the building.
I absolutely love Danny Shelton. If he stays healthy all season, I think he will single-handedly turn our awful run defense into an average run defense. A healthy Karlos Dansby could tip our run defense into the “good” region.
Well thought out, I appreciate the intelligent thought process used and you sharing it. Its tough to separate what you want and hope for as a fan with what Football common sense dictates. Good read.
If there isn’t a section in the stadium nicknamed “Danny’s Boys” then we have all failed.
Thank you sir. And I agree. While we didn’t “win the draft” it may help us more on the field.
Thank you, I appreciate it.
Chris Fedor:
This life, which had been the tomb of his virtue and of his honour, is but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
– WS
nice in-depth piece , MG …
… i will interested in WR vince mayle’s progress.
Would it be too corny to blast a quick excerpt from Danny Boy over the loudspeaker every time he makes a big play in the backfield?
I think Fedor meant to say: “Manziel is exactly the player the franchise needs, a guy who can maintain a buzz off-the-field pretty much all the time…”
Too soon?
That gif might be the best thing I’ve seen in a long time.
Exactly the right amount of corny.
thank you
Not at all ridiculous, mg, very rational and reasonable. Great read and worth a few more reads. I’ve heard a few “experts” say that Cameron is so good, he’ll likely start at RG or RT. Whaddya think?
thank you. I expect him to start at RG over Greco. I am not quite sure if he could handle RT or displace Schwartz who is adequate there (though not good; tough for him as on most OL he would be ignored as someone would be worse).
I still prefer this one for the hilarity that he did it in an actual game:
http://giant.gfycat.com/BrightNarrowFlamingo.gif
Wouldn’t all players actually be higher rated than above? This articleworks under the premise the Browns would keep all prospects on their board. Did Farmer say they didn’t take anybody off their board? Most teams take many players off their board. You could easily make the leap that due to non-public information, most players were rated even higher.
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also , nice last paragraph on farmer … i take a beating on these boards for fully supporting him. the man knows what he’s doing , and if given time , he will build a fine team built for sustained success.
90% of Cleveland fans only know how to attack and criticize. Their analysis only reviles potential flaws and weaknesses. I’m convinced that when the Browns do win a superbowl, the fan base will complain that while they are pleased, the team is incapable of winning again and they will start preparing for a “rebuilding phase”.
hi BOSS … i feel the same way. i don’t blame the doubters & negative folks , it’s been pretty bad for so long now they don’t know anything else but negative.
some will tell me they are being realistic … maybe they are right , but i feel a change comin’ in the wind … finally.
hi MG … any news on michael bowie ? can you imagine a staring O-line of thomas , bitonio , mack , erving & bowie … and then still having schwartz , greco & mcdonald as depth ?
The “BBV” needs to be a thing. Some sort of unit of measure like “how are you feeling today?” “Well on a BBV scale I’d say an 8”. Good stuff Mr. Bode 🙂
I doubt we will get much news on Bowie until Training Camp.
I am not sure what you mean? The “consensus BPA” section uses MSM rankings.
Haha, thanks.
The consensus BPA presumes all players are on a draft board. I’d presume the Browns had a # of players removed from their boards (like most NFL teams disqualify players based off non-public information). Therefore, there’s variance between how the Browns felt their picks rated vs. consensus, than somebody who’s working off the concept of all players being on their board. It’s a minor point, but worth noting.
Ah, I see where you were going with it now.
However, only public consumption information is available. In addition, the “consensus” is MSM, not what the Browns believed at that pick to be BPA. Just a measuring stick.
Right, we can only work off certain lists, but by any metric, the Browns (or any team that removes players from draft board) probably feel their value was better than perceived. I don’t want to seem like I’m arguing w/ you, we’re on the same page, I just wanted to illustrate a likely disconnect between a team’s perception of draft value vs. fans.
no doubt. and I understand the Browns will always feel they did better than the perception. Phil Savage released an old Ravens board last week that would help demonstrate this effect (and, I’m sure Ozzie loved him doing that too).
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Why not try your own draft with the choices Farmer had at at every pick? Then let’s compare at the end of the season. If you beat Farmer…..as Russell Wilson’s Dad said to him, “Why not you?” Lotta money in draft good draft picks.