Well Look Who It Is
April 16, 2015David Blatt: “What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. I think we got stronger”
April 16, 2015As each year passes, the idea that there is no offseason in the NFL becomes more true. With the massive media attention devoted to the NFL Draft and free agency, escaping football for even a couple weeks in the year has become difficult, especially in Cleveland, where the product on the field leaves much to be desired. Last year, the ratings for ESPN’s coverage of the first round of the NFL Draft increased 48 percent from the year prior, crushing the viewership of two first round NBA playoff games and an NHL playoff game. No city tuned in to the draft coverage more than Cleveland, which topped all markets with a 13.0 rating.
With the increased coverage of the draft comes more build-up, hype, and speculation than ever before. Nowhere is this more noticeable than the attention paid to and criticism hurled at mock drafts. Check out the comments section of any mock draft or look at the mentions on Twitter aimed at anyone who releases one. From what I can tell, some people see drafting the wrong player to their favorite team in a February mock draft as the eighth deadly sin. Complaining about a mock draft is one of the most useless things fans of NFL teams can do, for many reasons, but it just continues to happen.
Let’s take a step back and realize that the reason mock drafts are so popular is they give people a view into what the future may look like for their team. There are an endless number of scenarios that can and do occur, which make the draft so enticing. You can sit down on your couch one random day in May with Brian Hoyer as your quarterback and, in a few hours, you have an athletic beast of a corner named Justin Gilbert and Johnny Freakin’ Football coming to save the day.
Mock drafts simply allow you to fantasize about this possibility and many others. They’re created because people love the mystery of the NFL Draft. Despite never having watched an entire University of Kentucky football game, you really like this kid named Bud Dupree who has a heck of a highlight reel on YouTube and if Mel Kiper Jr. doesn’t place him high enough in his mock draft, you’re going to send Twitter hate his direction.
Mock drafts are entertainment, not a science. Rarely does any draft expert ever get more than seven or eight correct picks in the first round. I liken the practice of mock drafts to Bracketology, the pre-NCAA Tournament predictions. Joe Lunardi, the lead Bracketologist for ESPN, usually gets the seedings for each team correct or close to it, but he rarely picks the correct matchups or regions, especially as the lower seeds. Could he just give his rankings of each team? Of course, and he does. But, people want to see the matchups so they can imagine what the tournament would be like in each scenario. He released daily updates prior to the most recent March Madness to satisfy demand. Mock drafts are the exact same concept. Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, and all the other draft experts have their own rankings, but they do mock drafts to quench the thirst for content of all NFL fans.
I’m sure mocks aren’t for everyone, but I love them, even if I wish they were more accurate. Since I was a kid, I’ve spent hours upon hours combing over mock drafts, and my views of this practice have evolved over time. In terms of criticism, I used to despise the inaccuracy, but now I understand the impossibility of designing a perfect mock draft. There remains only one area that I believe is still open to criticism and has now become my favorite part of mock draft: The descriptions of each pick and the logic behind each selection.
Everyone is going to whiff on at least 75 percent of their guesses about about first round pick, but if the author of the mock draft gives me a good explanation of why each selection was made, the article becomes exponentially more useful and entertaining.
One example of this criticism came in the description of the Browns 12th selection in Mel Kiper’s latest mock. He slipped in a comment stating Cleveland may consider cornerback Trae Waynes, if he’s still available, despite the complete lack of explanation or logic behind it. That small comment angered me much more than the much-criticized pick of Todd Gurley at No. 19 due to its lack of explanation. Tell me why the Browns need another cornerback to go with Joe Haden, Tramon Williams, K’Waun Williams, Pierre Desir, Justin Gilbert, and Robert Nelson — if the argument is coherent, I will listen. All I ask for is an explanation so we can have a discussion.
I love a good talk about the draft, and mock drafts give all of us that, but we can’t read too much into them. Although everyone who creates one wants it to be 100 percent correct, we all know it never will be, so there is no need to hold it to such a high standard. Just accept it as a fun, entertaining exercise because that’s just what it is. The reason Todd McShay will release a 2016 mock draft just days after the 2015 NFL Draft concludes is because it is his most popular article of the year. ESPN and all the other networks covering the NFL are just giving the people what they want, as Jalen Rose would say. If we can collectively drop our outrage level, the whole pre-draft process would be much, much smoother.
33 Comments
Only real purpose is to kill time.
Ha haaaa, great question, Colin!
Do mocks serve any purpose? Let us count the ways.
1. They give Mel Kiper an income. Seriously, if it weren’t for mocks, what would he do for a living?
2. They give bored media types something to do, although doing several mocks a year for decades on end has got to be pretty boring in itself.
3. And, as Sham said above, they kill time for the rest of us.
Trying to predict anything beyond the first five or so overall picks in any given draft is futile, and I don’t know why anyone would bother. Yeah, sure, the 27th pick is going to be Jimmy Bob Jimibob outta Central Alabama State. Book it.
In those rare years when the Browns don’t have a single-digit pick, I don’t care about them at all.
http://i.imgur.com/5gM40.jpg
And intentional or not, I love the juxtaposition between the two heads. Unlike Varys, old Mel is and always will be a Dapper Dan man.
I have been less into mocks this year than in the last 10 or so. I’m not sure why that is. Burn out? Learned helplessness? Low, unexciting picks? A draft loaded with bad QBs?
This year, I’ve given up all draft speculation. I read headlines if only I can’t avoid them. I didn’t even read this piece. I don’t care who the Browns MIGHT draft. The prognosticators are never, ever, ever right. No one knows anything.
None. Zero. Zip.
there is no more annoying time in the year of sports than the 2 months prior to the draft. every moron has their own mock draft that they pledge from the mountain top, is gospel. every year those same morons miss on majority of their picks – just like pre-season rankings, post draft grades, world series predictions, etc…
‘experts’ is the most over rated & useless term in the industry – almost as much as ‘general manager of the cleveland browns’
Purpose? The only purpose I can discern is to clog bandwidth, like the ubiquitous hair in the shower drain for any family with girls. If only there was an internet drain…
The answer, as is to most questions concerning sports in general, is money. You say clicks, bandwith, satisfy demand; I say potato, potatoe.
I’ve been looking for the answer to that question for years. Still don’t know. I used to say it must be nice to be a meteorologist; who else can get paid so much money for being so wrong so often? I’ve changed that to “draft guru”.
It just makes it more fun when Kiper is wrong and gets picked on the whole 1st round.
I agree. They are an entertaining way to divulge information on prospects so that we all can have more informative discussions on players.
I WISH we could score Jimmy Bob Jimibob!!
That’s a good point, mg. We all do want to know who’s got a good motor, who’s hand size matches up best with their forearm length and elbow index, and who’s got world-class eye speed. I can’t get enough of that stuff.
Ha. You know when the draftniks starting salivating over some guy’s “length” and other metrics, it crosses over into some really weird territories. Horse-trading dehumanization? Some twisted sportsfan erotica? I have no idea, but it’s just too much for my comfort zone.
as if elbow index means anything without shoulder stats
“No city tuned in to the draft coverage more than Cleveland, which topped all markets with a 13.0 rating.”
Damn, it really has become our Superbowl. Can’t wait for the day that the Superbowl becomes our Superbowl.
I believe there is an internet drain…it’s called twitter.
I believe you are conflating drain with cesspool.
Indeed. My bad.
There’s a better way.
For example: Reading comments from you, RGB, and Saggy (and a few others). That’s all the draft biz I need.
The new discussions of “length” have been enough for me to almost avoid watching the draft. Almost. (What can I say? I’m a Browns fan and therefore contractually obligated to watch. I’m not going to be the guy that kills the ratings!)
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As I’ve said before…I hope the Browns try to draft Bitonio again.
Wait till we draft Tonga Takai and Westlee Tonga
I’m having a hard time getting motivated after Ray crushed my dreams last year…
Knowing those brain surgeons, they might.
He bought the team, remember?
Mel Kiper Jr. would probably be just fine and still one of the most known on air talents at ESPN. He used to do a national radio show on Sundays (I used to listen to it when I lived in California around 2000) and he can host a show on any of the major sports most likely. The man invented a entire industry, he’s the industry standard, not some 9th rate blogger.
Good stuff Colin. I must admit back in the Tim Couch days, I spent too much time on the computer looking for “Who the Browns will draft” articles and then spending my hours away chatting to someone I don’t even know. I can’t get all those endless hours, which turned into days then months and years of …
Time to take my depression meds cause I see no reason to believe the Browns can competently pick a guy in this draft that will equate to something that comes close to being called a “success”. Not one.
Kiper and McShay actually more apt to be wrong than right on most occasions yet somehow get labelled as “experts” SMH
I should also add that it would’ve been a wiser time spent if I had just sat on the porch and watched the grass grow. The people passing by my house randomly would’ve been discussion potentially more beneficial to all simply b/c it might be a neighbor whom we could help one another with actual things that matter like… can I help you mow your yard since you’re disabled, or maybe you can help me with a writing project my kid is having troubles with…
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