WFNY’s 2015 NFL Draft Coverage: Joe Gilbert’s Top Five Quarterbacks
April 8, 2015
Andre Knott talks A to Z podcast, Tribe job, and Cleveland sports media – WFNY Podcast – 2015-04-08
April 8, 2015As part of the Cleveland Indians 2015 season preview, WFNY’s Andrew Clayman expertly tackled the subject of the contention window and how long fans can expect it to stay open. Since that post, the Indians have signed Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco to extensions locking them up with the team through that contention window. The next obvious question for fans to ask is if the budget conscious Indians have any extra payroll to add a significant player. Or, a fan could ask if there are any payroll obligations through the contention window that may necessitate a trade of a talented, but highly paid player.
It is easy to complain that the “Dolans are cheap.” It is more difficult to lay out the future obligations, predict revenues, and make wild guesses on which prospects will end up making it as league average or better players1. Here are the obligations for the team as it presently stands:
Indians financial obligations through the 2021 season
(Click to enlarge)
Payroll Budget
The Indians have had a payroll budget between $75-90 million in most seasons they expected to compete and less during rebuilding seasons. If the Indians keep to that budget, the Baseball-Reference arbitration numbers are somewhat accurate, and the options are taken as outlined above2, then the team is already at or above the budgeted payroll through the 2020 season. However, there is a possibility that the baseball landscape will give a shift toward a more equitable revenue format after the current MLB CBA expires after the 2016 season. Also, the team has re-vamped Progressive Field and is aggressively utilizing social media marketing in the hopes to increase revenues through the gate as well.
However, if the Indians revenues and budget do remain static, then the team will have to get creative in trades and free agency in order to add any significant player during this stretch.
Potential Future Position Holes
The good news is that most of the significantly contributing players are locked into contracts through most or all of this contention window. For instance, it is likely that the Indians do not lose a starting pitcher or positional player from their current roster until Brandon Moss is a free agent after the 2017 season. The other good news is that the Indians have a minor league system that has prospects that are actually rising up to MLB and contributing positively to the team, and that is expected to continue moving forward.
The bad news is that if those prospects do not pan out, then there may not be the funds to replace them through free agency or taking on a contract through a trade. So, the 2018 Cleveland Indians may have to attempt to get by with a weak outfield as Brandon Moss, Nick Swisher, and Michael Bourn are not expected to be retained3. The 2019 Cleveland Indians may also have to find a replacement for Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, and the bullpen will have to be repeatedly rebuilt through these seasons.
Future Outlook
The Cleveland Indians we have today should be (barring a huge trade) the team that we all get to cheer on for the next several seasons. Honestly, it is refreshing to see the stability that the team has created. Even the issues that are highlighted above seem miniscule compared to the issues from a few seasons ago when it was not apparent that the team had much in the way of MLB talent at either the MLB level or in the minor leagues. All teams face uncertain futures and will have to overcome obstacles—the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers can both attest to how quickly long-term fortunes can change in baseball. I prefer the ones where the Indians have a ton of talent and it may be difficult getting it all on the field, which is what will happen if they remain even relatively healthy and just the best prospects end up being worthy of MLB playing time.
- There are some great scouts and writers who cover minor league baseball and they do a far better job of predictions than I ever could. But, the washout rate is so incredibly high that there is still a great deal of art to that science. [↩]
- Yes, I realize a ton can happen, but we have to start somewhere… [↩]
- Clint Frazier, Tyler Holt, and Tyler Naquin (among others) may silence those concerns. [↩]
14 Comments
“So, the 2018 Cleveland Indians may have to attempt to get by with a weak outfield as Brandon Moss, Nick Swisher, and Michael Bourn are not expected to be retained.”
Wouldn’t letting Swisher and Bourn walk make our outfield better? Plus that ~$30 million in salary could be well used in free agency elsewhere, especially if Frazier or Naquin make it to the big leagues by then.
The Swisher and Bourn contracts are the only things hurting the Indians future payroll.
The table above demonstrates that the $30mil that expires from them will not actually be money to spend because the FO has spent it on these extensions (unless the budget goes up).
Defensively, an OF bereft of Swisher and Moss could improve significantly (when healthy, Bourn is a good defender). But, it will be difficult to improve upon their plate production unless they fall off from their career norms (possible) or our prospects do well (as you mention).
The 2018 and 2019 total payroll numbers do not have Swisher or Bourn on them and are above what has been the payroll threshold in recent years. That is not to say that the payroll is hurting, but it is somewhat allocated already.
The future is looking bright.
Absent a championship (or back to backs!), I don’t think they will tolerate a payroll north of $100M by 2018.
I think we’ll see some key players jettisoned with the hope that some of the youngins such as Naquin, Frazier, Zimmmer (and of course Lindor, Urshela, and some high ball arms) are all rounding into form to step in.
PS. Interesting. I always thought their name was spelled DOLANZ. The more you know…
Nice breakdown, and comforting.
Yet to me the time any window remains open ultimately comes down to their own drafting and development. They’ve signed a bunch of talent through the middle of their respective primes, but if those guys are as good as expected they won’t be able to retain them middle to late prime. So the pipeline must produce talent and eval of other team’s prospects must be shrewd (but you can’t count on a Yan Gomes theft happening again).
I think back to the early ’90s when the farm had produced a seemingly endless supply of top level sluggers but pitching that was average at best. And Hart tried to compensate by giving away cornerstone offensive pieces like Sean Casey, Brian Giles and Richie Sexson just to spackle the rotation with average starters or a situational reliever like Ricardo Rincon. Who knows what might have happened had his farm people spotted pitchers like they did hitters, and they could have held on to the bashers.
TOO BUSY TO GET INTO THIS RIGHT NOW DAMMIT
please reply to one of my comments in here when you get time so that I can make sure to see your thoughts. thanks.
…
I’m a little confused about where you’re getting your numbers…
For example, you’ve got 2018 guaranteed at $39.3M.
Off B-R, I’ve got…
$13.67M Kipnis
$11M Brantley (option)
$10.7M Kluber
$5.95M Gomes
$8M Carrasco
$49.32M total
I’m also curious to see your arbitration estimates. $60M in ’18 seems like a lot (though looking at the list, we’ll have a lot of guys in arbitration at that time).
edit: oh, I’m guessing you’re not including Brantley in the guaranteed salaries. Duh. Still interested on the arb numbers though.
Plus Moss, Rzep, and Tomlin are free agents in ’17 making ’16 their last year of their contracts.
Sorry about the criticism. Just fact checking.
Yes, options are not guaranteed, but I put when an option is expected to be taken in the overall payroll. For Brantley in that year, he has $1M of his $11M guaranteed as a buy-out, so that’s where the $10 instead of $11M difference comes in.
The arbitration numbers were taken from baseball-reference and I adjusted for Carlos Carrasco (took his numbers out and added them to guarantee or option where appropriate). Those arb #’s may be off, but it’s the best guess at this moment.
No worries, always good to get a 2nd set of eyes on this stuff to make sure I have it correct. If they are free agents in 2017, then the 2017 season is their last year because free agency opens in November after the season.
But, I may have that one wrong because Moss’ 3rd arbitration year is 2016, which means he should be a UFA at the end of that season.