Takes on Takes on Takes: While We’re Waiting…
April 13, 2015Déjà Broom: 4 Years, 9 Tiger Sweeps, 15 Tribe Reactions
April 13, 2015We all know the old adage in baseball that good pitching beats good hitting. But when I’m reminded of it I find myself cringing and turning to the list of fallacies in deductive logic that might explain why it makes me uncomfortable. This time I’m thinking maybe it’s the “Ludic fallacy,” the failure to take into account unknown unknowns in determining the probability of events taking place.
Those who projected the Cleveland Indians as contenders for one of those eight-ounce World Series rings do so on the basis of their presumed superior pitching. Their good pitching, so the argument goes, should usually shut down the good hitting of their opponents. But after a series like this past weekend’s against the Tigers, one of those unknown unknowns is now known: Tigers hitters have burrowed deep into the psyches of Indians pitchers, who looked, for the most part, like they didn’t believe they could win.
There’s no denying the Tigers have a great hitting team, anchored by the best in the game (and one of the best ever), Miguel Cabrera. In 2014, the Tigers led the Major Leagues in batting average (.277), hits, doubles and RBIs. They came in second in total runs, on-base-percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases. And, on paper, the 2015 Tigers actually look like they could be better. But against the Indians over the weekend they surpassed last year’s MLB-leading stats like they were facing the Akron RubberDucks. They went 18-for-43, 14-for-39 and 11-for-36 for a series team batting average of .364. My goodness! As a team they batted thirty-four points higher than Cabrera’s career average! On Friday, Saturday and Sunday, they scored eight, nine, and eight runs (I’d say respectively, but the Tigers showed no respect whatsoever).
Then there’s Miguel. He went 11-for-14 in the series, an average of .786! He just shouldn’t be doing that to one of the best staffs in baseball, should he?
So, for starters (and relievers), I think it’s safe to say that the Indians have to take a different approach against Miguel and the Tigers, beginning with a reminder to themselves that, while the Tigers are good, they don’t generally hit .364 as a team. They should also remind themselves that Miguel’s best batting average over a season was .344. If the Indians’ “good pitching” had managed to hold the Tigers “good hitting” to last year’s averages, including runs scored per game (4.67), they might have taken two out of three instead of getting swept.
Of course there’s nothing said here the Indians don’t already know. They all know they can do better. But actually believing they can do it against these fearsome Tigers is another matter. Yogi Berra was right when he said, “Ninety-percent of this game is mental …” (Just ignore the other part of his sentence, “… the other half is physical.”) Perhaps a Vulcan mind-meld is in order. Or a Yogi mind-meld. If neither is available, the team could at least consult with Corey Kluber about how he shook himself out of his first-inning hypnotic state. In any case, there’s still hope in knowing, especially after only six of 162 games, and absent more of those unknown unknowns, the Tribe could very well sweep the Tigers in Detroit when next they meet. I believe, I believe … Help thou mine unbelief.
Miscellaneous observations while trying not to sulk:
- Yan Gomes: Bummer. Fifth game of the season and it looks like he’s out six to eight weeks. How do you say next man up in Spanish?
- Favorable early signs: After six games both Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis are hitting with authority and batting over .300.
- First two hits for both Ryan Raburn and Brandon Moss in this series. For Raburn, all according to plan, the on-again, off-again pattern of his career.
- Pleasant surprise? Jer-ry, Jer-ry, Jer-ry. Whatever else happens with Jerry Sands it seems he’s always hit lefties and the Indians will see a lot of them. How long can he maintain the hot hand?
- Six games into the season and not a single rainout. Isn’t that some sort of record?
- Tom Hamilton calls games and offers opinions as if he has no worries about job security. His candor is sometimes refreshing, as it was on Sunday near the end of the game when he called the home plate umpiring “brutal.” We know Major League Baseball uses an automated camera system to monitor and evaluate umpire performance and the evidence suggests this has helped improve umpiring performance. But the latest published data indicates an overall error rate of between 8 and 9 percent. And fans are well aware of wrong calls because plenty of games have been telecast showing a graphic of the strike zone with pitch locations using this technology. But few seem to think that mistakes are evidence of an umpire’s incompetence. Rather that it points up the extreme difficulty of being accurate nearly 100 percent of the time under almost impossible circumstances. After all, errors are being made nearly 10 percent of the time by, presumably, the best umpires in the world. And yet whenever, some news outlet does an in-depth story on the problem, there’s always a spokesperson from Major League Baseball who says that using an automated system isn’t feasible. Isn’t feasible how? Technologically? Politically? So for insiders with a public voice like Tom Hamilton it would be nice to face this squarely without rancor toward the men in blue.
- In the seventh inning of Friday evening’s game, Carlos Santana hit a drive over the wall in left-center. Unfortunately, a fan, seated in the first row, reached over the top railing with both arms in an attempt to catch it like a football. It bounced off his forearm and back into play. The replay showed there was a pretty good chance it would have been a home run had it been left alone, but it was ruled a double. If I were to ever sit in the first row at a Major League ballgame I’m pretty sure I’d be reminding myself (and those around me) when to avoid interfering with a ball in play. But how can I be sure? I guess there’s something instinctual that takes over some fans’ self-control when a $10 baseball comes their way.
- But I wonder if that Friday night first-row bleacher fan happened to watch the rebroadcast the very next day on Saturday of an ESPN 30 for 30 documentary about the 2003 incident where, during a playoff game at Wrigley between the Cubs and Marlins, a diehard Cubs fan, seated in the first row down the left field line, reached beyond that imaginary plane that separates the seats from the field of play for a foul popup. He clearly got in the way of Cubs left-fielder, Moises Alou, who was trying to make a play on it, and it fell to the ground. What ensued after that play was one of the ugliest, most heart-breaking episodes in Cubs history and in the history of Major League baseball. The fans turned on the young man, Steve Bartman, like a lynch mob, hurling vulgar insults and food at him until he had to be escorted from the ballpark for his own protection. By all accounts, Mr. Bartman was a model son, a model citizen, and a knowledgeable baseball fan. When the incident occurred, it was the eighth inning with one out. The Cubs held a 3-2 advantage in the series and a 3-0 lead in the game. But after that play, the Cubs imploded, the Marlins went on to score eight runs, the game ended 8-3, and the Marlins went on to beat the Cubs in game seven. And a skinny young hitter named Miguel Cabrera was in on that 8-run rally.
- What do you think? Should front row tickets come with some sort of warning, a link to an informational YouTube video or a Wikipedia article about the “Bartman Incident” that fans can view on their Smartphones before a game? Maybe an admonition on the beer cups, “Keep your body parts out of the field of play?” Who can be sure that a fan mishap has ever really determined the outcome of a game? The Marlins scored eight runs that inning and they won 8-3. Steve Bartman wasn’t on the mound and he wasn’t playing shortstop when that crucial error was made on Cabrera’s ground ball. Likewise, on Friday night in Cleveland, the Tigers didn’t just squeak by the Indians. They pounded out 18 hits and won 8-4. Maybe all we need right now is the simple, one-word Vulcan mind-meld Spock gave to Kirk after his deeply despondent Captain tragically lost his lover, “Forget.”
28 Comments
Between the way the Cavs opened this season at home, this opening home series for the Tribe, and the Browns performance history in home openers since ’99, it sure seems like Cleveland teams just do not like high hopes among the fans and/or buzz in the media. LOWERED EXPECTATIONS AND MORATORIUMS (moratoria?) IN THE MEDIA TO START THE SEASONS FROM NOW ON, PEOPLE
Indians will get swept by ChiSox too.
I have always sided on the pitching side of the pitchers and hitters debate, but this era of abundance of pitchers does have me questioning if it is better to have the scarce resource.
It’s just three games!
If the guy would have picked that ball quickly and cleanly, it would have been a HR.
Houston games were in a retractable dome.
Basketball slow starts do not matter as much as baseball. In baseball, only 5 teams in each league make it to play offs (53% in basketball, 33% in baseball)
fair, but slow starts take nearly twice as long in baseball compared to basketball given 82 v 162 games.
My Friday and Saturday:
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/mefnirV.gif
By Sunday, I had stopped even checking my phone for updates.
I can’t help but wonder if behind the scenes MLB is pressing to shrink the strike-zone in order to create more excitement via offense. It’s just a tinhat theory, but makes so much sense that I can’t shake it.
Even if they do lose both games, I struggle to call that a “sweep.”
Save your tinfoil. MLB is talking about doing it.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources–mlb-could-alter-strike-zone-as-response-to-declining-offense-232940947.html
That would’ve been ground rule double.
I looked at my phone Sunday afternoon and saw updates of the Tigers lead increasing and Gomes being ruled out 6-8 weeks. I then put my phone away and enjoyed the rest of the beautiful afternoon and didn’t think about the Tribe again until today.
Not if it was hard to see. If it was hard to see and project trajectory, it would have been called HR, maybe would have been overturned.
Getting swept sucks…bad esp by the tigers. Lot of season left, but that gives them huge advantage.
This niftily written account makes me happy that I had the foresight to forego watching even one minute of this series. It doesn’t matter. The Tigers will find their nemesis elsewhere and in the standings all will be evened out….we just need to end up with more wins no matter how badly they beat us head to head. Is it safe to turn on my TV now?
It is an off-day, so no. Instead of actual sports, you will be treated to sports-analysis!
Or enjoy the Cavaliers, a playoff team.
They are off no?
Offense is down specifically because the strike zone has increased in size over the last few years.
Don’t encourage the “takes!” 🙂
No play Pistons tonight.
So I had a rather lengthy response to this, but it dealt with the issue of attendance, and I’m not lighting that powder keg around here or anywhere else, because it is my least-favorite Cleveland sports story. I will say that I agree on the slow starts being more important in baseball than basketball. And that my point was more about building momentum with the fans than anything. Our teams just do not seem to handle situations where they could seize or maintain fan energy very well.
pretty sure the real Cavs are off until the playoffs begin
Thought I heard yesterday that tonight wouldn’t feature another mass night off.
Whether or not players play, I don’t think we will see any intensity from them and perhaps another 4th quarter resting.
Or because the steroid era is over…
With guys still willing to use Stanozolol 25 years after Ben Johnson got busted, I would venture to say that the era of PED use is not over, and the use of them may not even be down in the slightest.
And of course, guys were using steroids long before offense starting shooting up in the mid 90s. We don’t actually have much evidence of correlation between PEDs and offense. We are starting to see evidence of a larger strike zone these last few years though.