2015 Indians Season Roundtable Preview

We finally made it to Opening Day for the Cleveland Indians in Texas against the Houston Astros (not to be confused with the Home Opener on April 10). I hope that everyone has enjoyed the Cleveland Indians preview series that we have staged the last two weeks. It was great getting six different writers involved so that many different views and thoughts on the team could be presented. There are plenty of topics left to continue writing during the season but, in true WFNY fashion, any regular season cannot officially begin until we hold a roundtable discussion. Feel free to put your own answers in the comment section for posterity.

(1) As Kirk alluded to on Wednesday, we are going to focus more on counting statistics this season. So, how many and which players do you think will surpass the 25 home run threshold in 2015 for the Cleveland Indians?

Craig: I’m hoping at least two. I’ll say Brandon Moss and Carlos Santana. Yan Gomes or Michael Brantley potentially could, but I wouldn’t predict it.

Clayman: As kids of the ’80s and ’90s, 25 still doesn’t sound that impressive. But the Indians haven’t had a guy hit 30 homers since Grady Sizemore in 2008, and there hasn’t been a 100 RBI man since Hafner and Martinez in ’07. So… I’m going to lowball this one and say Carlos Santana is our sole 25 HR man. I like Moss to hit 20 but I am expecting him to miss some time here and there. Brantley and Gomes will be just a hair shy, as well.

Kirk: I do love counting stats, and home runs are king! Put me down for Carlos Santana, Brandon Moss, and Jason Kipnis surpassing 25 homers this season. I do believe the strength of this team is having 15-20 homer power at nearly every position rather than having anyone who will hit north of 30. Between the three aforemetioned, plus Brantley, Gomes, and yes, maybe even Nick Swisher, the Indians have the ability to give a little bit of pop from several positions in the lineup.

Greg: There’s no reason not to expect Carlos Santana to do it again, and the team obviously expects newcomer Brandon Moss to join him. I think Yan Gomes will, as well. Notably absent from this list, of course, is Nick Swisher. I just don’t see it with him.

Joe: I think three players for the Indians will get at least 25 home runs this season. I believe Brandon Moss will lead the team in home runs with Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley also getting 25 home runs this season.

Josh: Two. Carlos Santana and Brandon Moss.

Scott: I’ll echo the rest and say two—Moss and Santana. Only nine players (I believe) topped 30 last season, so being near there is not exactly an easy feat. Gomes and Kipnis have a shot, but the rest will fall victim to platoon at-bats and a general lack of power.

Michael: I had said that I believe three players will hit 25 home runs between Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Brandon Moss, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, and Roberto Perez. If forced to pick three, then I would think the most likely are Carlos Santana, Brandon Moss, and Yan Gomes.

Will: I’m jumping in for this one, then leaving the rest of the preview to the folks who actually know baseball: I think every hitter on the roster will club at least 25 homers this year. MOAR DINGERZ!

(2) Which Indians player is going to be the 2015 version of Russell Branyan? The player that tends to get more than his fair share of the focused blame from the fans.

Craig: Raburn, David Murphy are the types who get put in this category. I’ll bet on Raburn.

Clayman: A hobbled Swisher seems like a good candidate, since he was already hearing the boo birds a year ago. But I will play the percentages and predict that Cody Allen won’t be perfect this year. A few blown saves always seem to turn a fan base on a guy pretty easily.

Kirk: For different reasons, I’m looking at Nick Swisher and Trevor Bauer as two prime candidates here. Swisher’s huge salary, injury history in Cleveland, plus a certain faction of Cleveland fans not enjoying Swisher roping Ohio State into the Cleveland sports culture make Swish an easy target. For Bauer, his personality and vibe that he gives off with his unique preparation and approach could cause some fans to turn sour on him if the rotation behind Kluber struggles in the early season. Either Carrasco or Bauer needs to step up and emerge as a strong number two starter behind Kluber.

Greg: So, this is like picking Kentucky in your 2015 NCAA college basketball bracket. Just because it seems like the obvious pick doesn’t mean it’s not the most likely to be correct. It’s Nick Swisher. I really hope not, though, and not just because his salary continues to matter to the flexibility of the team. It’s also because in various ways, he has embraced the city. I hope his knees continue to improve, and he plays 130 games or so when he returns. When that doesn’t happen, fans won’t be patient. Many weren’t last year. By the way, I think it is partly mental with him now — going back to his being over-aggressive and coming up empty with men on base in the 2013 Wild Card game vs. the Rays.

Scott: Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are the easy answers here. Both are being paid a lot; both have yet to really live up to the expectations. They’re too expensive to not play, but they’re both on the down side of their respective careers.

Joe: I think Lonnie Chisenhall will get his share of blame this season, warranted and unwarranted. His defense and offensive slumps will lead to him being blamed by Indians fans. But, I do not know if the blame will be as harsh as a Russell Branyan blame game.

Josh: Nick Swisher (when healthy). Since he received that big contract, he has been a huge disappointment so far in Cleveland. Until he exceeds his expectations, he will get the brunt of the blame when the team struggles.

Michael: Lonnie Chisenhall is the obvious answer because he has continued to struggle on defense, and Jose Ramirez may be auditioning for his spot as he keeps SS warm for Francisco Lindor. However, the player that I think may become the whipping post for fans if he starts the season slow is Jason Kipnis (all this assuming Ryan Raburn is not given much time).

(3) Which Indians player is going to be the 2015 version of Casey Blake? The under-rated player who is a key part of the Indians having success.

Craig: Weirdly enough it might just be Lonnie Chisenhall. Could he be underrated? Seems weird, but I am going to assume he might be Blake-ian.

Clayman: To me, last year’s Casey Blake was Scott Atchison. I’m not sure I see him carrying that over, though. Instead, I’ll go with the backup catcher Roberto Perez. He gives the Tribe a very solid second option that will enable Yan Gomes to get a little extra rest or DH at-bats in the dog days.

Jose Ramirez fits that description perfectly. He will be a huge upgrade defensively over previous years of Asdrubal Cabrera

Kirk: I like Jose Ramirez in this slot, with honorable mention for Zach McAllister and T.J. House. Ramirez will hold down shortstop to begin this season, and even if Francisco Lindor gets promoted in the middle of the season, I don’t forsee Ramirez losing many at-bats. With his flexibility, he could slide over to third base and steal time from Lonnie if he’s not producing or killing them in the field. Ramirez’s infield defense and speed are a welcomed addition to the Indians lineup that has limited quantities of both. If he can get on base a little more frequently, he could maybe even move into the No. 2 spot and break up all of those lefties up top.

Greg: Jose Ramirez will continue to solidify the infield. There might not be any jerseys of his mingling among the masses at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario on April 10, but a good chunk of the hard core who’ll be on hand after that first weekend already appreciate him. He’ll be the placeholder at shortstop until Francisco Lindor arrives, and then he’ll be an option at third or second for Tito, if Chiz or Kipnis can’t get it going. Ramirez helped to steady the defense last year; it seems a safe bet to figure they’ll need him to do it again.

Joe: Jose Ramirez fits that description perfectly. He will be a huge upgrade defensively over previous years of Asdrubal Cabrera. His range will be unseen by most fans, but he will save a lot of runs because of wide range to track down balls. Offensively, Ramirez will be solid. He will be a prototypical second or bottom of the order hitter, who gets on base for his teammates to drive in. He also will add speed and a threat to steal bases.

Josh: Jose Ramirez. With Francisco Lindor quickly climbing up the ranks, Ramirez will play his role well this year (at shortstop) and give Lindor another year to develop down in Triple-A Columbus.

Scott: I want to say Jose Ramirez, but since everyone else is piling on, I’m going to say Trevor Bauer. Not a hitter, but I believe he’s being overlooked a bit with the recent news surrounding Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber. I’ll even go as far as to say it’s Bauer who could make or break this team’s season.

Michael: Lonnie Chisenhall fits in this category too because the expectations are so low and he will likely not be given much credit if he is just league average, which would be huge for the team. Jose Ramirez is the obvious answer, and I love his defense. However, I am going to go with Carlos Santana, who continues to provide great offense and improving defense yet never seems to get much credit for it. He may get overshadowed by even more players performing this season.

(4) Through our experiences with Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, and many others, we have know inconsistent pitchers can be. What are your chief concerns about the pitching staff and who do you worry could provide those uneven performances?

Craig: I’m most concerned about Carlos Carrasco. Despite the Indians not making it to the post-season, Carrasco had a period last year that reminds of Fausto “figuring it out” in 2007.

Clayman: All of the attention has gone on the potential of the rotation, and I actually do expect good things from all of them, including Zach McAllister. The middle relief situation worries me the most, simply because it’s so rare to keep a pen healthy and see sustained production like we did from Shaw, Atchison, Rzepczynski, etc., last year. The young arms in line to step up don’t like an army of Cody Allens, either.

Francona gets a lot of well-deserved credit for how he manages, but I’m still not comfortable with how hard he rides his relievers

Kirk: You have to start with Danny Salazar, who is one of the five most talented arms but is once again starting out in Columbus. Salazar taking the next stop from being a thrower to learning how to pitch and work batters is one I fear still has more bumps in the road.

Greg: Francona gets a lot of well-deserved credit for how he manages, but I’m still not comfortable with how hard he rides his relievers. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue this year. For all of the great arms among the starters, there’s nobody who’s really had more than one good (or great) season. You still have to like the long-term promise of the staff; there’s just still a lot of uncertainty as 2015 begins.

Scott: Can Carrasco pick up where he left off? Can the bullpen survive despite being abused by Terry Francona a season ago? Can we trust the coaches to make the right calls when it comes to the back end of the rotation?

Joe: My chief concern for the pitching staff is the dwindling depth after the injuries to Floyd and Tomlin. The Indians will not have a lot of options if they are in need of starts this season. The pitcher that I worry about the most is Carlos Carrasco. After the Indians signed him to a long-term extension, it puts a lot of pressure on the young pitcher. He has had an up and down career with his only consistency coming in the second half of last season. He still must prove he can do this over a full year.

Josh: Our pitching staff could either be really good or not very good. Most of the starters have a lot of “if’s” with them. For example, who knows if Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and TJ House can continue to develop and pitch like they did at the end of last year. Having Mickey Callaway as the pitching coach gives me high hopes for this year’s pitching staff though.

Michael: The bullpen terrifies me after the workload that Terry Francona put on them last year. However, keeping it on a starter theme, I am more worried that the youthful rotation that we have will not be fully physically and mentally prepared for the grind of the entire regular season. Corey Kluber is the only pitcher on the staff that has completed a full season as a starter and he had an 88 inning pitch workload increase in 2014.

(5) Can the 2015 Cleveland Indians be an average defensive team?

Craig: Probably not. I wish I could say yes, but I just don’t know how they turn it around magically from year-to-year. Hope I’m wrong.

Clayman: I think so, but that’s probably a best case scenario. Having Ramirez/Lindor at short sounds like a major improvement, but we’re also talking about very young players who might occasionally bite off more than they can chew. Loves Gomes, love Santana’s improvement at first. Hope no one ever hits the ball to right field.

Kirk: No, they cannot, BUT they can be much closer than they were last season. If they can improve (primarily at shortstop and in right field), it will help them drop a few less games because of those defensive miscues. Keeping Swisher off the field and at DH, subbing Aviles (and eventually Holt) defensively late in games, and Kipnis being healthy at second should all be contributing factors toward improvement.

Greg: In the outfield, sure. It seems Bourn is running well. Most like Smooth in left, and Moss is said to be an improvement over David Murphy and Ryan Raburn.

At catcher? Again, yes. After a crazy-bad start to the season behind the dish in 2014 (and what was that about, anyway?), Yan Gomes settled down and performed at the high level he’d flashed the season before. In the infield? Nah. Has on-field performance promised otherwise? I don’t trust Chiz, and Kipnis’ ceiling would seem to be average. Neither Santana nor Swisher inspire at first, up to this point anyway. It just underscores how important a solid shortstop like Ramirez will be this season (Also, while Lindor seems to be an All-World fielding shortstop, he did have a rough start on defense in 2014).

Joe: I think the Indians can be an average defensive team. Jose Ramirez is an upgrade at shortstop and Carlos Santana has really impoved at first. I think the key is for Michael Bourn to stay healthy, so that he can be a defensive threat in center, allowing Michael Brantley to play his best position in left field.

Josh: Yes. After last season, the only way they can really go is up. They will definitely improve from their defense in 2014 because I am sure they focused on that a lot more during spring training.

Scott: No, but I do think they’ll be better than last season. Right field will be an issue regardless of who they have out there (I continue to miss Drew Stubbs, for the record) and I do not trust the corner infielders at all when the ball is hit on the ground in their general direction. The only true improvement will come with a healthy Michael Bourn and the fact that Asdrubal Cabrera is playing for another team.

Michael: The Opening Day 25-man roster cannot likely be an average defensive unit. However, almost all of the organizational position player depth will help the defense. I believe that by the time Tyler Holt and Francisco Lindor make their way up to the Indians and move defensive lacking players to the bench, the Indians can and will be an average defensive team for the season on the whole.

(6) The AL Central has four teams that should be competitive this season including the four-time defending division champion Detroit Tigers and the defending AL champion Kansas City Royals. Which divisional team do you think poses the biggest threat to the Indians?

Craig: I am sure there’s a better, more well-researched answer to this question using serious facts, but I’m just going to reflexively say the Tigers.

Clayman: I’ll say Chicago. Along with the long list of big names they added in the offseason, they’re also getting back a guy named Avisail Garcia, who missed basically all of 2014. He will wind up making a bigger difference in their line-up than Melky Cabrera or Adam LaRoche. They still have a weak back-end of the rotation, but the bullpen is much stronger with David Robertson closing. They have bought themselves into contention, for sure.

It’s Detroit’s division until someone else takes the top spot

Kirk: Until further notice, it’s the Detroit Tigers, with their star power, playoff experience, and large payroll. The Tigers have a more talented roster from spots 1 through 8, but the Indians have much better depth 9-to-25 and can sustain the inevitable injuries a little bit better than the Tigers can, I do believe.

Scott: Anyone not saying the Tigers is looking too deep into things. Regardless of KC making the World Series and the White Sox improving, it’s Detroit’s division until someone else takes the top spot.

Greg: The Tigers will still scare everyone, but they are poised to drop down a peg. The Royals scare me more. They performed — well, even — in the crucible of post-season play. And the young guys are now veterans (I recently did not know the difference between a Nick Markakis and a Mike Moustakas. I sure do now). They did take a hit in the rotation, losing James Shields and gaining Edinson Volquez (the latter being a guy I am not expecting consistent success from). Their bully was the best in baseball last year. I just see that team continuing to get better. Homegrown, young, and they can pitch, hit, and play defense.

Joe: I think the Detroit Tigers are still the biggest threat to the Indians. They have Miguel Cabrera, who can carry an offense. Their starting rotation is weaker, but David Price is an ace with Anibal Sanchez as a very good second starter. The key for the Tigers will be their bullpen and the status of Justin Verlander. If those two keys fail, then the Tigers are not a huge threat to the Indians.

Josh: Detroit Tigers. They may have lost Max Scherzer, but they still have David Price and Anibal Sanchez in their rotation. By adding a hitter like Yoenis Cespedes, to go along with the (power) lineup they already had, they will be hitting the ball all over the field in 2015.

Michael: The Chicago White Sox made some great moves and should be an improved team, but Chris Sale also missed Spring Training with a foot injury and will start the season on the 15-day DL. The Kansas City Royals defense will keep their pitching staff happy and their team in many games, but I believe that some of their success last year was a fluke and they will fall closer to 82 wins this season. That leaves the Detroit Tigers who remain the best offensive team in the division, and the likely toughest opponent (thankfully, without Max Scherzer).

(7) Finally, how many wins do you think the Indians will get to this season and how far in the playoffs will they get?

Craig: Franchise record 112 wins and they’re going to win the World Series. 🙂

Clayman: Unfortunately, thanks to that super-competitive division mentioned in the previous question, an awful lot is going to have to go right this year for the Indians to play more than 162. I think we’ll tick up a bit from last year at 87-75, sneaking into a Wild Card game. We will then win that game (let’s say over the Tigers for drama’s sake), with Kluber on the bump, then lose the Division Series to our old friends from Seattle.

Kirk: jWAR told me 94 wins. That may have been a little optimistic, so I’ll readjust and say 91 wins, which will be good enough to win a tight AL Central with four teams finishing above .500 (Sorry, Twins). The Indians will face the Red Sox in the ALDS and take the series in five thanks to superior pitching. In the ALCS, the Indians and Angels will battle it out with the Tribe coming up short in six games. The Indians will use the valuable playoff experience gained to be a more formidable threat to take it all in 2016.

Greg: I will not be bashful here—and only partly due to the fact that ultimately, nobody will remember my thoughts on this (after all, while people remember the 1987 SI prediction that Cleveland would win the Series, nobody remembers they also picked the Tribe in 1999). For all of the concern I confide under Question Four (above), it says here the entire Tribe pitching staff gels in 2015. Yet-to-be-established young talent comes of age. Established stars keep the party going. Pitching coach Mickey Callaway is the MVP. Callaway and the staff leads the Tribe to 95 wins and the American League pennant.

Joe: I think they will get to 89 wins and win the AL Central division. The Indians will then make it the World Series, losing to the Washington Nationals. It will be a great season and a fun one to watch!

Scott: I’m a believer: Ninety wins and the AL Central title. What happens from there is all luck. And pitching.

Josh: 88 wins. With the Central division crown, they will advance to the American League Champion Series.

Michael: 92 wins seem like a good number for this team with the depth that they have throughout. It will likely be a bumpy ride at times to get to that number, but the steady hand of Francona and Mickey Callaway can help us get there. By the time October rolls around, the Indians should be an improved defensive team, so the postseason will come down to what the pitching staff has left and if the hitting gets hot. Anything can happen once a team gets to October, so I might as well predict that the Indians win the World Series though I really hope that a National League team knocks out the Washington Nationals for us (as Duke likely appreciated Wisconsin knocking out Kentucky in the NCAA tournament).

Okay Blawg Pound, it is your turn. What did we get right, what did we get wrong, and what do you believe about the 2015 Cleveland Indians?