Who Believes in Jesus?

If Francisco Lindor is the Indians’ undisputed “can’t miss” prospect and Giovanny Urshela is the thinking man’s “under the radar” favorite, Jesus Aguilar seems relegated to yet another year as the .500-slugging elephant in the room. Everybody knows he’s there, everybody has seen the numbers he’s put up, but as Aguilar approaches his 25th birthday, the question has to be: does anybody really believe in Jesus?

For all the talk about the over-reliance on statistics in modern baseball analysis, the old-fashioned “eye test” can still carry enough weight to fully derail a fan-base’s enthusiasm for a young farmhand. This spring in Goodyear, the 6-foot-3, 250-pound Aguilar has erased the ugly memories of an 0-for-15, seven-strikeout 2014 preseason by jumping out to an 8-for-19 clip. In theory, he’s battling for a bench gig with the big club, but—even with a gimpy Nick Swisher looking like a question mark on the 1B/DH depth chart—Jesus is only likely to rise again in Columbus come April. This is bad news for the pitchers of the International League, but is it bad news for Indians fans?

Four out of five scouts seem to say “no.” Since Aguilar first signed with the Tribe as a comparatively scrawny 18 year-old in 2009, the descriptive summation of his talents has gradually evolved from “raw” into a less hopeful “limited.” Critics punched holes in the slugger’s monster 2013 campaign in Double-A Akron, looking past the gaudy 105 RBI total to point out a hitter with a long swing and an OPS 50 points lower than his teammate and fellow outlier prospect Carlos Moncrief. Jesus then went and clubbed 17 homers in 56 winterball games in his home country of Venezuela, eliciting more yawns.

Looking at the stat sheet, last season’s performance in Triple-A should have been the one that finally brought Aguilar into the good graces of the blue chip list-makers—the Baseball America and Prospectus scribes who’d long turned up their noses at him. He improved in virtually every key category—lowering his strikeout rate, raising his walk rate, lifting his batting average from .275 to .304, and his OPS from .776 to .905. Sure, his first cup of coffee in Cleveland was forgettable (4-for-33 in 19 games), but there’s got to be a future for a big right-handed stick in this line-up, doesn’t there?

“I wouldn’t get excited about him,” says Jeff Ellis, an old compatriot of mine now plying his wares for Scout.com. “It doesn’t help when a TV personality like Bruce Drennan goes on his show and says [Aguilar] is one of the best hitting prospects to come up since Ramirez and Belle. This never was true or even close to true. Aguilar never was higher than tenth on my Top Ten, and when I talked to scouts, he wasn’t high on anyone’s.

“The main reason is that you can’t scout stats. I use numbers all the time, but fans look at the home runs and RBIs and think a guy is going to be a star. Aguilar has worked to be better at pitch recognition, but it will never be more than a below average skill. He has some holes in the swing, and while he is good enough to mash minor league arms, it was clear to anyone who watches games that he probably projects more as a plus Scott Morgan or Danny Peoples.

“I hate to sound so negative, because if Aguilar could play another position, he could have a long career as a platoon guy. He can’t, though—he’s a below average first baseman.”

With Carlos Santana locked in at first base and a backlog of veteran DH options on the roster, it’s unclear when or if the Jesus Aguilar experiment will ever get its moment in Cleveland. Maybe the scouts are right, and a steady diet of Major League breaking balls on the outside corner would quickly prove to be the big man’s undoing. But for every Andy Marte, there is the occasional Richie Sexson—a big swinging, not particularly well-touted prospect whose Minor League numbers have more than a passing resemblance to Aguilar’s.

Sometimes a “limited” guy will surprise you. You just got to have a little faith.