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March 14, 2015Another day, another positive article being written about the Cleveland Indians. Apparently, David Schoenfield had drawn the Friday slot for waxing poetic about one of the Indians pitchers, but the pitcher that he wrote about may surprise you.
He started off with the basic premise of attempting to identify the 2015 pitchers who might best fit the profile of becoming the next Corey Kluber type of Cy Young candidate. The pitcher who has had the peripheral numbers, but has yet to translate those solid peripheral numbers into an elite season.
Anyway, if we’re looking for the next Corey Kluber, we should focus on somebody who meets at least two of the following three criteria: a better-than-average strikeout rate, a below-average walk rate and a high BABIP — with an emphasis on the strikeout rate being above the MLB average. If he’s a pitcher who was never highly rated as a prospect, even better. Of course, Kluber’s transition — winning the Cy Young at age 28 in his first full season — is unprecedented, so we’re not going to find a perfect match.
At this point, you might start wondering if he is going to mention one of the Indians long list of young arms that could have a breakout campaign especially since all of them except T.J. House fit the profile of having an above average strike out rate1 . Carlos Carrasco immediately came to my mind as his peripheral numbers were incredible once he reclaimed his starting role for the stretch run last year. Let’s take a look at the full 2014 season numbers of the candidates that Schoenfield could choose from on the Indians here:
Name | Strikeout Rate | Walk Rate | BABIP |
Carlos Carrasco | 26.5 | 5.5 | .274 |
Trevor Bauer | 21.6 | 9.1 | .312 |
T.J. House | 18.7 | 5.1 | .332 |
Danny Salazar | 25.3 | 7.4 | .343 |
Josh Tomlin | 21.1 | 3.1 | .320 |
Zach McAllister | 19.6 | 7.4 | .332 |
Carlos has the low BABIP and was a known prospect, but, otherwise, he fits the profile really well2 . But, Bauer, Salazar, Tomlin, and McAllister all fit the profile as well. So, he basically could choose whichever player he wanted from our rotation. Therefore, it was slightly surprising to see that he would pick a player who gave up three runs (one earned) on just eight batters on Wednesday and is still battling to be on the Opening Day 25-man roster. However, it is also great to see that Danny Salazar was his pick.
Danny Salazar, Indians
2014: 6-8, 4.25 ERA
K rate: 25.3%
BB rate: 7.4%
BABIP: .344Kluber’s teammate is hardly an unknown after bursting onto the scene in 2013 with his electric fastball, but Salazar’s 2014 was disappointing, resulting in a demotion to the minors for a spell. He did have a 3.50 ERA in 12 starts in the second half, as he cut down on the strikeouts. He’s actually been a reverse platoon guy in the majors; his changeup has been effective against lefties while righties pound his slider (.600 slugging percentage allowed in 2014). Keith Law scouted Salazar’s outing on Wednesday and saw inconsistent results.
11 Comments
Hi MG, thanks for taking my call. Long time listener first time caller.
Yeah I’ve lived in Cleveland my whole life, been a fan of the Tribe forever. I was there for the Sports Illustrated 100 win year, the magic of the late 90’s, the midge game and was just wondering WHAT THE HELL IS WITH THIS YEARS TEAM BEING THE NATIONAL MEDIA DARLINGS?!?
Wow.
His BABIP is ridiculous for a strikeout guy. His K/9 dropped from 2013 to 2014, but it was still about 10 (and BB/9 was basically the same). But his HR/9 went up by 2, which is huge. Just makes me wonder if he’s hanging that changeup.
I didn’t watch much Salazar last year so i don’t have firsthand knowledge. Certainly, the Tribe D didn’t help him (see .343 BABIP!!), but I’m wondering if anyone has any other insight.
I need to do some research on the specifics and will if he makes the rotation (or when he gets called up), but it has to do with his velocity effecting the movement on the fastball along with how he gets himself too deep into counts too often (the “forced to throw strike counts”). Tony Cingrani is similar in that these types of pitchers tend to give up more LD%. Again, this is based on recollection and I need to redo the research here.
They are young, they were over .500 2 years in a row, the front office is among the most stat-friendly teams in MLB, and we have the most stat-friendly media in history. Add in media friendly guys on the team like Francona, Swisher, Kluber, and Bauer (media loves an easy story and he provides them — see Indians twitter today, they gave it to Trevor and he killed it).
For more detail, please refer to:
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2015/02/corey-kluber-cleveland-indians-charts/
But, I am just going to enjoy it while it lasts. I hope it lasts for 5 years.
Love how you slipped in Kluber as a media friendly guy. Hahah. That guy is nails, and I love him dearly but he’s only slightly more electric of an interview than Belichik. Better than Popovich though:)
Well done.
I would also add in they lost the Royals as “the team to watch”.
Here’s to hanging around long enough to give them all a great big $hitbhrg3r to eat.
I’d bet on Kluber or Carrasco before Salazar in a landslide. To me, Salazar is a guy with a straight fastball that dropped a mile or two last year and hitters definitely adjusted well to his approach. He doesn’t have the location, movement or off speed stuff to be an elite pitcher unless he reclaims that velocity
Salazar’s still a good pitcher with a lot of potential, but the real “sleeper” cy young candidate should be Carrasco.
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmBs5e7CIAADXX2.png:medium
Bauer is 5x more likely to have a huge season than Salazar IMO.
BABIP is a tricky thing. Some pitchers get guys to pop up a lot or hit weak grounders. If a guy is getting hit hard, his BABIP probably is not going to be good. It is a very flukey thing though. If a guy is hit hard but somehow the hits go right at defenders, that number may be a little misleading.
Agreed, that’s why it’s good to check on LD% at least as a sanity check.