Everything’s Coming Up Scarlet and Grey

The Wisconsin defense finished the season ranked fourth in the nation for total defense (294.1 yards allowed per game) and 17^th in scoring defense (20.8 points against per game). In the Big Ten Championship Game, behind a third-string quarterback making his first career start, the Ohio State Buckeyes rolled up 558 yards en route to a dominating 59-0 win.

The Alabama Crimson Tide sported a similarly stout defense – twelfth in yards per game (328.4) and sixth in scoring defense (18.4 points allowed per game). The result of the Buckeyes’ New Years Day tangle with the Tide? Just your run-of-the-mill 42-35 landscape-altering win over the sport’s most fearsome juggernaut of the last half decade fueled by 537 yards of Buckeye offense.

Now you’ve probably already moved to the logical next question: how does Oregon’s defense compare to the two stout units on which Cardale Jones, Ezekiel Elliott and company have dropped a total of 101 combined points in their last two games? I’m so glad you asked. As it turns out, the Ducks aren’t quite as stingy as the Badgers or Crimson Tide. In fact, to find the Oregon defense, it’s necessary to navigate to the second page of NCAA.com’s total defense rankings, where you finally find the Ducks at number 84, giving up 421.9 yards per contest. And now you know how I have managed to gradually convince myself that, by midnight Central Standard Time on January 13, the Buckeyes will be the first team crowned national champions of college football through the use of a real-live playoff system.

The Ducks are a classic example of a bend don’t break defense. In spite of their less than impressive yardage marks, they allow just 22.3 points per game, good for 27^th in the nation and just one spot behind the Buckeyes. Still, Ohio State has proven that solid scoring defenses provide little resistance to Urban Meyer and Tom Herman’s dynamic attack. The Buckeyes have already downed five top 30 scoring defenses this season.¹

The more one reads about this matchup, the more it seems that everything comes up scarlet and grey. Ohio State’s offensive strength is on the ground, where they average 262.2 yards per game. Ezekiel Elliott has turned his game up to 11 at the exact right time, taking pressure off of Cardale Jones with consecutive 200 yard games. Oregon’s relative “strength” on defense is their run-stopped, but they still allowed opponents to average 156.1 rush yards per game. Their pass defense is abysmal in comparison, ranking 108^th nationally (out of 125 FBS teams) at 265.9 yards per game. Factor in the absence of Oregon cornerback and Jim Thorpe Award finalist Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (who was lost for the season to a knee injury suffered in practice before the Rose Bowl), and one has to imagine that Meyer and Herman will call a number of deep routes for long-ball whisperer Devin Smith, giving Jones plenty of chances to use the howitzer he has for a right arm.

Still, the coaching staff must remember that the Buckeyes earn their money² on the ground. A healthy diet of Elliott’s pounding runs will not only suck the Oregon defense in and open up opportunities to go deep, but will also allow Ohio State to control the game’s tempo and keep the Ducks offense on the sidelines.

That Oregon offense, led by Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota – he of the 36-4 career record as a starter and the utterly absurd 40-3 touchdown to interception ratio this season – is as dangerous as they come. Relying on a defense to stop Oregon’s high-octane, rapid-fire attack is foolhardy.³ But in this game, where both offenses are explosive enough to turn the contest into a track meet that would make Usain Bolt proud, maybe one or two stops will do.

For me, that’s what Monday’s game boils down to. I don’t harbor any illusions that Michael Bennett and the Silver Bullets will hold Mariota and the Ducks below 20 points. But, in a game where any stop will be hard to come by, I’ll take my chances with Bennett, Joey Bosa (due for a bounce back game after looking slow and tired against Alabama), Darron Lee, and Vonn Bell over Oregon’s shaky unit.

On Monday night, Ohio State will play for the school’s eighth national title. But to measure this game solely by the one additional year that would be added to the ring at Ohio Stadium is terribly simplistic. The Buckeyes are playing for Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett, their two fallen stars at quarterback who helped set the foundation for this moment. They’re playing for the Big Ten, their conference that has been widely ridiculed for almost a decade and was left for dead this season as early as September 6. They’re playing to exorcise the ghosts of 2006 and 2007, when the Buckeyes fell embarrassingly in two consecutive BCS Championship Games. They’re playing to extend Ohio State’s 8-0 all-time record against Oregon. And they’re playing for Kosta Karageorge, whose tragic death galvanized the team and whose spirit and memory is carried on the jersey of Michael Bennett and in the hearts of every player, coach, and fan.

All of that is within reach. I fully expect Meyer to have his team fully prepared to grab it.

1. In addition to Wisconsin and Alabama, Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan are also ranked in the top 30. [↩]
2. Just kidding! You all know as well as I do that it’s ridiculous for college athletes to make see so much as a single cent of the millions of dollars they bring it for their schools, conferences, and the NCAA. [↩]
3. The OSU defense did get good news on Friday, when it was announced that Oregon’s second-leading receiver Darren Carrington, who hauled in two touchdowns against Florida State, would not make the trip to Dallas after failing an NCAA drug test. Third-leading Ducks receiver Devon Allen is also doubtful for Monday’s game. [↩]