Nike officially unveils Kyrie Irving signature line
December 3, 2014Josh Cribbs planning a leap into the Dawg Pound if given the chance
December 4, 2014
Happy Thursday, WFNYers. Here’s what is on my mind of late…
The Cleveland Cavaliers and their sensational first quarters. Check out this NBA.com/stats data:
In first quarters, the Cavs rank first in ORTG at 117.9. They rank first in Net Rating at +17.9. They rank ninth in DRTG at 100.1.
Overall, the Cavs rank sixth in ORTG at 107.1. They rank 13th in Net Rating at +2.5. They rank 18th in DRTG at 104.7.
So yes, the defense is better in first quarters (by 4.6 points per 100 possessions). That’s intriguing. But the real story for why the Cavs are the NBA’s best first quarter team is the offense. It is better by 10.8 points per 100 possessions in those opening frames.
Here is the shot chart data via Nylon Calculus’ Austin Clemens (this quarter-by-quarter sorting option has not yet been made public):
And on the more nerdy perspective, here is a quick screenshot of some shooting data:
The Cavs are assisting shots on a ridiculous pace and are making them at a ridiculous pace. For comparison, the league average is 58.3 assisted field goal rate and 49.8 eFG percentage. The Cavs are shattering those marks in first periods. They’re below average after that.
I’m curious for more and more data on why this could be. This will be a pet project of mine for the next few weeks.
Of intriguing note: Anderson Varejao (2.5 FGA per game) is averaging more shots than Kyrie Irving (2.4 FGA) in the first quarter. LeBron James (2.5 assists per game) also is near the league leaders for the first frame. James has been taking on the early distributor role, while Irving also takes a more aggressive offensive role in the second half.
Do you have any theories – especially those backed by concrete data – about why the Cavs have been so much more comprehensively efficient on offense in first quarters? I’d love to hear your perspective.
Outside Links:
As part of a recent feature, the San Francisco Gate’s Eric Branch shared a detailed Q&A he had with 49ers legend Steve Young. The focus was on how to develop mobile quarterbacks. While he mostly harped on Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III, it’s neat to read it with a perspective on Johnny Manziel, too.
Grantland’s Zach Lowe and SB Nation’s Tom Ziller had two great reads on the NBA’s great conference imbalance dilemma. Even with several impressive upsets on Wednesday, the West still has a 70-31 (.693) record in head-to-head matchups this season. The past four seasons: .631, .582, .578 and .580. So yes, this appears to be getting worse and worse.
The Brooklyn Game’s Devin Kharpertian did the math on how 2014 is the worst year ever in the modern era for New York sports teams. You won’t see much sympathy from us Cleveland fans. Also: ESPN Insider’s Paul Swydan ($) shared that the Yankees currently project to be the AL East’s worst in 2015. Boo hoo.
Twitter was livid earlier this week with this question that snuck into Paul Hoynes’ most recent Indians Q&A: “Why is everyone satisfied with the way Carlos Santana plays? He is the most selfish player on the Indians. … He is not as good as everybody thinks.” If you didn’t know, Santana is perhaps one of MLB’s most underappreciated players, apparently, not just one of the Indians most valuable stars.
If you didn’t see, the Cavs and the Greater Cleveland Sports Commission announced their bid to host the 2018 NBA All-Star Game. If you recall, back in August, Charlotte joined the Cavs in the running to host either the 2017 or 2018 affair. Orlando also is another candidate. We should hear more in the next quarter so stay tuned. …
Also, I was totally Ryan Fitzpatrick’s son when I was a little kid and this nerdy video is perfectly adorable.
And for some shameless self promotion, here was this week’s Sports Analytics Blog Roundup and my latest Nylon Notebook post at Nylon Calculus.
Oh, and Taylor Swift:
Sure, “Shake it Off” was addicting. And then I had a phase of being purely addicted to the catchiness of “Blank Space.” But now? I’ve got Taylor Swift’s “Welcome to New York” stuck in my head. I have a problem.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Bzr5VtFvSyw
In non-Taylor Swift news, I’m also a big fan of this new single and music video from The Decemberists.
Have a great morning, you guys.
10 Comments
Good song, better video. Ron Swanson forever.
I’m sorry but Taylor Swift is a mediocre hack
The effectiveness of the Cavs’ offense in the first quarter is interesting to me too. I wonder if Andy Varejao isn’t a big reason for it. LeBron and Kyrie certainly seem to look for him early in the game to get his motor running. I’m not sure if teams don’t realize it or think it was a one-year aberration, but it seems like defenses are still more than willing to allow Andy to pop 15 footers all day long in spite of the fact that he’s statistically one of the best shooters in the league from that range. When I was watching the last Wizards/Cavs game, I had to watch the Wizards’ broadcast because my area falls into their blackout region. Andy hit one of those shots early in the first quarter and their color man Phil Chenier made a point to say, “The Wizards will let Varejao take that shot all day.” I had to laugh to myself… that’d be a really quick was to lose a game. Clearly he hasn’t paid much attention to Andy the last couple of years.
“I make you butter”
I died.
I used to cringe when Andy was popping those, but he is money. Dude can hit those all day
What’s interesting about those charts are that the shots being taken seem very similar, so it could simply be teams adjusting as the game moves on better to covering those shots.
and by “medicore hack” you mean “a perfectly crafted pop music teen product”.
The industry hires these individuals for a certain look that they know can be molded to fit what makes money.
They are not given license over creation of their look, nor much of their music. It’s best to think of these people as “personnel” as opposed to “artists”.
The fact that Taylor is so wildly popluar means the exact opposite of your statement, she has performed her job (fit a certain look created by the industry) extremely well.
Or the personnel taking the shots in the later quarters. The chart doesn’t account for the person taking the shot which depending on talent level can alter the outcome completely.
Which again is why I’d rather watch the game to know that Dion isn’t hitting his cursed “step back jumper”, his “no pass pull up three ball” or his “me me me semi-fast break no finish at the rim layup”.
Sidenote: I claim intellectual property on all the aforementioned “Why Dion Waiters is on the trade block” shot types.
LOL…
Andy is shooting 80% in 1st quarters. He’s a big reason for this.