Brian Hoyer: Regression to the Mean
October 22, 2014Watch Kyrie Irving pass between his legs to Kevin Love
October 23, 2014It’s almost here. Next Thursday, the Cleveland Cavaliers begin the much-hyped 2014-15 NBA regular season with LeBron James back in wine and gold. The preseason is now over. The real games begin soon.
It’s a pretty surreal time to be a fan of Northeast Ohio professional basketball. It’s perhaps even more surreal to be amid the subset of Cavs fans from Akron that grew up with LeBron as a part of their lives.
Ever since he was a high school sophomore in 2000-01, he was a national celebrity and a sure-fire NBA player. By that season, his home basketball games were starting to be played at the University of Akron’s James A. Rhodes Arena. The St. V Irish were out-selling the Zips.
LeBron has been a part of people’s sports lives in Northeast Ohio for almost 15 years now. I know for me, as an early teenager, going to those games at the JAR were sensational. The energy was insane as we went wild every time for this prodigious talent, this over-sized man-child.
By a stroke of good lottery luck, he went on to play for the Cavaliers. By an even further stroke of luck, he returned to Cleveland, championing his love and passion for community building in this region. Opening Night is sure to be an overwhelming scene.
But as a still young fan of basketball and of Akron, it just pulls at the strings quite a bit to see the new videos popping up each week. Take for instance, this new Beats commercial.
There’s Hawkins. There’s St. V. There’s Swenson’s. There’s Highland Square. There’s downtown. There’s the streets we know and love. There’s the common bond to an area that I share – that we all share – with this incredible talent, the best basketball player in the entire world.
Yes, the season will be filled with many pressures and expectations to compete immediately. But if we just sit back for a moment and cherish the incredulousness of this story, the emotional status of this community right now, it adds a necessary dose of reality. This matters, this is awesome. This is going to be a whole lot of fun for a whole number of people.
Assorted links:
— FiveThirtyEight’s NFL playoff implications data visualization is really, really good. The Browns’ playoff odds are about 10% entering week 8 per the machine, created by InPredict’s Mike Beuoy and site writer Reuben Fischer-Baum, formerly of Deadspin.
— Our old friend Denny Mayo had a sentimental read at Eleven Warriors about Ohio State’s homecoming weekend and “home.” Missed you around these blogging parts, Denny.
— Hardwood Paroxysm unveiled its massive 2014-15 season preview. This basketball network is the best on the interwebs. You should go scope out this preview e-book. It’s glorious.
— The Cauldron’s Kevin McElroy had a detailed read on the top Eastern Conference contenders opposite the Cavaliers. Again, I think many people are sleeping on the Raptors. They finished 42-22 last season and brought everyone back.
— Have you yet seen the LaBlatt Lue t-shirts that @firejb_ made? Because they also are glorious. And don’t ya get it? Blatt … Lue … there have been a few Canadian basketballers too. It’s funny! (And Dawn Griffin is offering a free Cavs print at Sunday’s Comic-Con event. You should take advantage of that.)
— The annual League Pass rankings from Grantland’s Bill Simmons and Zach Lowe made me super-duper excited for Cavs home games this year. I’m hoping to go to as many as possible during my winter break.
— Last month, BizTech Magazine’s Ricky Ribeiro wrote about the on-court 3D technology that will be used by the 76ers and Cavs this season. Super cool, super expensive.
— The Akron RubberDucks are the first Ohio sports team and first minor league baseball team to introduce Apple Pay as a payment option for fans. This is totally unsurprising with team owner Ken Babby, previously of Washington Post digital media.
— Speaking of digital media, I was really intrigued by this AdAge article about how Nate Silver plans to use video to better increase engagement and page views at FiveThirtyEight. The data site has seemed to be mildly underwhelming so far. I’m not certain exactly what interactive videos they’ll be able to create, but it’s certainly where Internet sites are trending these days.
— On the topic of video, Fox Sports’ Katie Nolan is awesome with her No Filter YouTube videos. Last week, she worked to out-duel Madison Bumgarner’s beer-chugging abilities. It was quite funny. (As was her story earlier in the year on bar mitzvahs.)
— And finally, I was really proud of last week’s over-filled Sports Analytics Blog roundup. I spend a lot of these articles each week. They’re designed to be a great primer for anyone interested in topical analytics research. Go check it out if you have a moment to browse.
Tweets of the week:
BABY COME BACK @INDIANS pic.twitter.com/VqpIDq280f
— sportsyelling (@sportsyelling) October 19, 2014
Please explain to NFL novice: Possible to laud Peyton's career but also acknowledge that today's passing game equivalent of MLB PED era, no?
— Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) October 20, 2014
How many RTs will it take to get @JoeBanner13 on the WFNY podcast?
— Scott (@WFNYScott) October 20, 2014
https://twitter.com/AdamReisinger/status/524437776507629568
Taylor Swift's "Shake It Off" is starting to grow on me. I blame @WFNYJacob
— Football Figures (@FBFiguresOnline) October 21, 2014
The Baseball Bloggers Alliance voted Corey Kluber over Felix Hernandez as top AL pitcher, 80-74 in scoring that mirrors CY vote rules.
— Geoff Baker (@GeoffBakerTIMES) October 22, 2014
Yes, Jalen and Doug, there's no pressure for Lebron in Cleveland. Those fans are noted for their measured reasonable responses to things.
— Joseph Flynn (@ChinaJoeFlynn) October 22, 2014
I've recently discovered WFNY's @wjcgibson on Cavs twitter and he's smart and funny and worth following.
— David Zavac (@DavidZavac) October 23, 2014
https://twitter.com/steven_lebron/status/525176487230849024
34 Comments
I completely agree with you on Toronto. They have the size to push the Cavs, the PG to run their offense well, and enough youth that we should expect them to continue to get better. If they weren’t bringing back the purple dinosaur jerseys this year, then they could very well be the team that grabs the 2-seed.
We’re all still solidly in the emotional pocket of The Return, but what’s the purported message of the goozilly Beats by Dre ad? Hey poor, He’s amazing and He’s back, have hope. And if you are reborn as the winner of the genetic lottery don’t forget your town. Move back, work out at your high school to stay humble. Buy ‘em some new equipment maybe. I enjoy the artistry of these sepia-toned, emotionally manipulative mini-masterpieces. As long as I don’t think at all about what it’s trying to do, who’s doing it and why.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xALgAY2GA6U/Unv-T-c8OFI/AAAAAAAAEEs/sccRnl4N6BQ/s1600/yourcynicismiscrushingmyapathy.PNG
Sorry, sometimes I just gotta spew. But who’s the cynical one, me or the headphone pusher?
[“Who’s the dog, Harry? Am I the dog, Harry?”]
https://s-media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/originals/3f/82/a8/3f82a89410940bb9f7bee54b77c6fd2c.jpg
So, there I was, walking around the mall, and there it was, displayed and the Foot Locker…
REALLY? In Savannah? I bet I’m the only person in this city that can pick out Summit County on a map.
I actually had to do a double take. The wife asked “What are you looking at?”
No way in hell I’m wearing that…I’m from Stark County. 😀
http://www.dickssportinggoods.com/graphics/product_images/pDSP1-18405747p275w.jpg
I think you feel about Toronto’s backcourt how I feel about Atlanta’s frontcourt. Talented veterans in their prime (Lowry/DeRozan v. Millsap/Horford) and a young core being built around them. I like both teams’ coaches. I think it’s going to be a fun season in the East.
Anyone else see that the Arizona Fall League is utilizing a pitch clock? I very much want to see one of these games just to see how they are truly using it. For instance, if the pitcher is uncomfortable with the pitch call, then will it just lead to more “pick-off” attempts when there is a runner on base to reset that clock?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/players-in-afl-struggling-with-adjustment-to-new–pace-of-game–measures-110749754.html
Yes. And, it doesn’t hurt that Terrence Ross was one of my favorite recent college basketball players either. I am quite glad that they were able to figure out a way for DeRozan and Ross to be on the court together.
The East is definitely much better than it has been in the past. The issue is that there really isn’t another “top talent” team outside the Cavs. The Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, Hawks, Heat, and even Hornets all have some good, talented teams. However, it is likely that none of those teams has a top10 NBA player either, which makes it extremely difficult to project them as true contenders (obviously, Wade could be healthy or Rose could return to his old-self and change that dynamic).
Basically, those teams have to hope that on the Spurs post-2007 model to consider themselves a contender. Even Pops has had to really push to get to the Finals twice and win one with Duncan on a decline.
Agreed, the West is still far superior to the East on the whole, but I’m just happy to see teams that I think can at least be competitive against those western teams. Unfortunately, with the injury to Paul George and the loss of Lance Stephenson, I think the Pacers are going to fall into a losing record this season. The same thing could happen to the Heat if Wade gets hit with more injuries. However, I think the addition of Stan Van in Detroit moves them to an above-.500 team and even the Milwaukee Bucks should be a lot more competitive given their bad luck with injuries last year. Injuries are going to play a big part in who makes the playoffs this season, and this may end up being the season where the injury bug strikes the stars in the West much more than the East… impossible to tell at this point.
Indiana should take the year like the Spurs did when Robinson got hurt. Just tank it out and come back next year, but they don’t seem willing to do it quite yet (a slow start may change that thinking).
I don’t share your optimism about Detroit. I think they can flirt with .500, but, man, is that an extremely poorly put together roster. SVG is going to have to coach his pants off (hopefully, not Mike Singletary-style literally) to get that to be a competitive team.
The Bucks to me are the East version of the Twolves. Extremely athletic and intriguing, but without a real vision of how to pull everyone together on the same page. But, I was worried that is where Toronto was headed before Lowry went there, so we’ll see.
Injuries definitely play an absolutely gigantic role in the NBA since 1 player effects so much. Already with guys like Durant and Beal (secondary player, but a key one for the Wiz) getting hurt, it’ll shape at least the seeds if not the race itself.
Going to be a fun season though and I’m excited to see some of these teams to see what changes they made.
At least the Coliseum was in Summit. How many other athletes have a jersey representing their home county? So bizarre.
Sometimes? You mean all the time when it comes to LeBron James.
Almost as bad as the NBA trying 11 minute quarters.
huh? why? don’t we all want the MLB game sped up?
Of course but a pitch clock, c’mon man? Isn’t there already a rule governing how long a pitcher can take between pitches you know the one Rafeal Betancourt breaks every time he’s on the mound? I think there’s a rule about the batter stepping out of the batters box too but I could be wrong on that one.
not sure how a pitch clock is any worse than a shot clock. impossible to enforce any rule about time if the players cannot see how much time they have
there inherently seems like something wrong with any kind of clock and the sport of baseball but I do believe there are already rules in place governing the time between pitches. It’s just not enforced.
I am curious/hopeful a pitch count would work….I’m also interested/intrigued about changing the rules to 3 balls is a walk.
The Cadavers at the Mausoleum.
Those were the days.
I don’t want to change the rules of baseball just to speed up the gameplay. That is why I like the idea of the pitch clock in that it works within the pre-existing rules.
the existing rules are ambiguous. they note that a ball is to be called if a pitcher doesn’t pitch within 12 seconds, but doesn’t give a definitive timetable when to start. they state that the batter will have an automatic strike called if they linger outside the box, but do not determine what is lingering.
either way, you don’t want an ump hand-timing those. even if you use those instead of this clock, you want an outside guy whose only job it is to start/stop that clock and it visible for ump/batter/catcher/pitcher.
I think the rules they are trying in AFL are specifically to cater to the existing rules, but to make them actually feasible to enforce.
they became ambiguous only because the baseball forefathers never imagined guys having to constantly check batting gloves, their cups etc etc etc etc but like I said they just aren’t enforced.
based on the fact that umpires are already ignoring the rules i’d tend to agree about the timing aspect i just can’t forsee a physical clock making sense. and what are you going to have two separate clocks one for the pitcher and one for the hitter?
the AFL rule is that the batter may not leave the box after the pitch and the pitcher may proceed whenever they wish. there are exceptions for time being called, the batter getting brushed back and after foul balls. all cases where the batter naturally would need to leave the box.
I wonder what county has the most current NBA players born there?
Summit has got to be up there with LeBron & Curry being MVP and MVP-candidates born in the county.
Less warm-up pitches between innings would be nicer. I’d like to see less games as well been saying that for years. 162 is way to many.
less chance of that happening as MLB TV money is more tied locally than nationally than the NFL or NBA.
Everything is about $$$ that’s the problem with sports these days. Less games makes a ton of sense overall accept when it comes to the bottom line. That’s pretty sad but unfortunately true. It’s why sports hold less and less of an important role as I get older. You learn what priorities are maybe that’s partly why baseball has fallen off as a spectator sport I don’t know.
you have way too much time on your hands, friend.
my brain just needs at least 10 different things going on at any one time. if I’m only doing 8, then it seeks out another 2 🙂
After reading the first two lines I thought Summit would have a good chance in an all-county tourney, even with 3 (relative) scrubs. Clearly they would get smoked by LA.
Hoop it up 3×3 would be only real hope
I hear you….but just like changing TD’s in football to 6 points, and adding the 3-pt shot in basketball, some rules changes end up being great for the sport. I believe going to 3 balls for a walk would force pitchers to go right after hitters, reduce pitch counts, limit strain on arms (especially young ones), speed up game play, make the game more watchable to a larger fringe audience, and make the game better overall.
And, I worry that guys like Carlos Santana won’t even worry about swinging the bat because they will have an OBP well over .400.