Like Cam Newton in 2011, its Open (pre) Season on Johnny Manziel
August 22, 2014Preseason Game 3 Preview: Cleveland Browns vs. St. Louis Rams
August 22, 2014
Whoops! There it was.
For the second consecutive series, the Cleveland Indians failed to close out the final game of a could-have-been sweep. There are bound to be games where things simply don’t click—bats go cold, an erstwhile rock solid bullpen implodes, Ryan Raburn spikes a ball into left-center field. Things happen. But during a time in the season where that number in the Games Behind column seems to be stuck at 4.5, with each game signaling one less chance at closing the gap, late-season games tend to have a larger mental impact than the ones which were completed in the late-spring or early-summer months. But what would today’s picture look like had those previous, ostensibly less important games gone differently?
And by different, it’s easy to look at the starting rotation—where would the Indians be if Justin Masterson maintained his 2013 form?—but the Tribe presently boasts the eighth highest fWAR amongst all pitching staffs. It’s also easy to look at the bats, the ones which tend to morph into blocks of ice at the most inopportune times (typically when Corey Kluber is on the mound). In addition, the lost production from key contributors during the 2013 campaign is glaring—we’re talking a 10-win swing that’s been burdened by the rest of the 40-man roster. But the Indians have scored the seventh most runs in all of baseball, more than the Orioles, the Royals, the Mariners, the Yankees–teams they all trail in the hunt for a post season berth. Cleveland has scored just 61 fewer runs (less than half a run per game) than the league-leading Oakland Athletics.
So what gives? Why are the Indians, with pitching and hitting stats among upper tier, running in place around that .500 mark? Why do they continue to find themselves four or five games out of October Baseball?
***
Rather than the Indians participating in their annual ritual of eating the Detroit Tigers’ dust, all while battling a slew of other postseason hopefuls, they currently find themselves looking up at the AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals as well. The 2014 Royals are a team that will never be confused for 1998 Yankees. They are currently proud owners of the league’s lowest walk rate (6.2 compared to the Indians’ ninth-best mark of 8.4). And while they’re not getting on base via the walk, they’re not exactly tuning Kaufmann Stadium into a nightly edition of a Home Run Derby as they’re on pace for 99 bombs—this would be the fewest by an AL team since 1994. But once they swap plastic batting helmets for warn-in leather gloves, all bets are off.
According to Fangraphs, Royals fielders have been worth an amazing 50.2 runs above average thus far through 2014. The Cleveland Indians, conversely, have been worth a league-worst 66.6 runs below average. Let that sink in a bit. The Royals have been really freaking good at preventing runs for quite some time—it’s the other facets of the game that had haunted them until now.
The Indians, through Thursday, have a team xFIP (Expected fielding independent pitching) of 3.52, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. They have collectively pitched 1,138 innings, which would suggest an “expected” earned run total of 445. Their actual earned run total is 470, meaning that there have been 25 additional runs scored against them because of things like shoddy range. It gets worse when you add in the team’s league-leading total of 60 unearned runs. The average AL team has allowed 40 unearned runs, meaning that the team has underperformed by another 20 runs or so. In other words, by way of sequencing and (mostly) bad defense, the Indians have thrown away something like 45 runs—or 4.5 games—compared to what you could have expected from an “average” defensive team. Using this same approach, the Royals have recognized a 48 run swing in the other direction, resulting in about five additional games won.1
Wherein we have been able to easily pinpoint the regression (or outright collapse) of players like Jason Giambi and Ryan Raburn, as we can visually see them flailing and failing when ensconced by a batter’s box, finding the culprits on the defensive end can prove to be a bit more tricky. Thankfully, given the unearned run totals and the numbers above, it’s fairly easy to just say ALL OF THEM. But if drilling deeper is your thing—it’s undoubtedly ours—we can utilize a slew of advanced metrics to tell us just who has been preventing considerably fewer runs than their peers.
According to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved stat, here are the best (and worst) defensive outfielders in the AL this season2:
Rank | Name | Team | Games | Rdrs |
1 | Alex Gordon | KCR | 120 | 20 |
2 | Lorenzo Cain | KCR | 98 | 20 |
3 | Jackie Bradley | BOS | 11 | 15 |
4 | Jarrod Dyson | KCR | 83 | 15 |
58 | Chris Dickerson | CLE | 28 | 0 |
65 | Zach Walters | CLE | 3 | 0 |
71 | Elliot Johnson | CLE | 3 | 0 |
83 | Tyler Holt | CLE | 7 | -1 |
101 | Nick Swisher | CLE | 6 | -2 |
106 | Mike Aviles | CLE | 27 | -2 |
113 | Ryan Raburn | CLE | 41 | -3 |
117 | Michael Brantley | CLE | 116 | -4 |
120 | Nyjer Morgan | CLE | 14 | -5 |
134 | Michael Bourn | CLE | 70 | -10 |
141 | David Murphy | CLE | 108 | -13 |
144 | Torii Hunter | DET | 95 | -16 |
Three of the top four outfielders, when ranked by defensive runs saved over average, reside in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Indians have received above average contribution from nary an outfielder—Nyjer Morgan managed to somehow cost the Tribe five runs (or half a win) in just 14 games played; David Murphy may be a Good Guy, but he’s been better than just three other outfielders in the entire league. Zach Walters, Elliot Johnson, Chris Dickerson and Tyler Holt simply haven’t had enough time in the outfield to catch whatever disease has plagued the entire unit. The Royals had one of the best defenses in the history of baseball in 2013, but to have a safety net like the one they have in the outfield this season—when compared to the rest of their competitors—is simply stunning.3
If we take position specifics out of the mix, only nine players (including pitchers) to take the field for the Tribe have been above average in preventing runs. Yan Gomes has prevented four runs above average, good enough for sixth in the AL. His gear-wearing colleague Roberto Perez, despite having a smaller window of opportunity, has prevented three runs. Mike Aviles has saved a run, but the rest of the above-average bunch (doesn’t that sound endearing?) are all pitchers—Justin Masterson, Scott Atchison, Josh Tomlin, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Outman, and Blake Wood—guys who either pitch every five days, or an inning here or there.
Want to see just how bad the infield has been? Do you really? Fine, suit yourself…
Name | Games | Rdrs |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 94 | -7 |
Carlos Santana | 115 | -7 |
Nick Swisher | 92 | -7 |
Jason Kipnis | 98 | -10 |
Lonnie Chisenhall | 95 | -17 |
So, in theory, if the entire Indians’ infield had been at least average through the course of the season (say, more like the Chicago Cubs!), they would have prevented 48 runs, or (wait for it…) 4.8 wins.
So back to that Ryan Raburn play—the one where an unhittable Corey Kluber was on the mound, dominating the much-discussed Royals, only to have Mike Moustakas flick a ball into the left field corner and have Ryan Raburn execute one of the most incredible non-plays in recent history? The Royals went on to win that game, in extra innings, by the final score of 2-1. While it may have been one of the many games the Tribe has bobbled away, it was also one of the many the Royals have won simply by putting the ball in play, being smart on the base paths, and catching the damn thing once it comes off of the opponent’s bat.
On May 11, the Royals won by just two runs in Seattle in a game where the Mariners made five errors in the game. On July 23, they beat the White Sox, 2-1, after Tyler Flowers dropped the relay throw that would have nailed go-ahead runner Mike Moustakas at the plate in the ninth. On June 29, Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick bungled a potential inning-ending double-play ball in the ninth, and the Royals walked off one batter later—but remember, the box score can’t assume a double play! On August 11 against Oakland, As outfielder Josh Reddick fielded a single with the speedy (and apparently well-above-average-fielding) Jarrod Dyson on first base; his throw to the infield was similar to Raburn’s (but with a trajectory that was more up than down), allowing Dyson to advance to third, later scoring on a fielder’s choice, and the Royals would win by one run.
So yes—it is true that the Indians did not do much to acquire a sufficient right-handed bat at the trade deadline. They certainly didn’t acquire a starting rotation-ready arm. They’re likely to be counting on players who were not on the team’s Opening Day roster, hoping for lighting in a bottle from the Zach Walters of the world. But as they presently sit 4.5 games behind the second Wild Card slot in the American League, hoping for a replication of the magic that carried them in to the postseason just a year earlier, it will be tough to not go back through the team’s first 100-plus games and wonder what the situation would be had they simply relied on fundamental fielding. A lack of range may never have the same tangible, gut-punching impact of striking out with the bases loaded, but the holes in the Tribe’s defense has provided a headwind which they can ill afford.
The eyes and ears tell us a lot; the numbers, well, they tell us even more. It’s almost like those 4.5 games could come back to haunt them.
—
All stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. WFNY’s Jon Steiner also contributed to this piece.
15 Comments
Good piece, but I think that even though one is about ‘earned’ and the other ‘unearned’ runs, it feels like a bit of a double counting to use both.
That was my part of the analysis, so I’ll try to field this.
They’ve allowed 470 *earned* runs, but their defense independent pitching says they “should” have allowed 445 *earned* runs. That’s 25 more earned runs based on sequencing and defense, right?
None of that has anything to do with all the unearned runs.
They’ve allowed 530 runs TOTAL. The extra 60 runs (470 ER and 60 UER) they’ve allowed are also due to defense, we could argue. If we agree that a certain amount of unearned runs is to be expected from an average defense (40 is league average thus far this season), who is to blame for the additional 20? It has to be below average defense, right?
Therefore, I’m coming out at 45 total runs or so. I don’t think it’s double counting as long as you look at them separately, right?
Great piece defense has been worse then atrocious. If it was just bad this team would be contending for the division. It’s a drawback of Francona but still I give this guy credit for what this team is doing. No way would an Acta or a Wedge be able to manage like Francona has but that’s just my opinion.
So I think not (funny, I’d assumed Jacob did it 🙂 ).
FIP includes all plays. Unearned runs can often include all runs scored after an error is made (say, with two outs), and in fact a large % of unearned runs are exactly this type. They’re not a separate group of plays, they’re just a manner in which runs are charged, so FIP is calculated based on those plays as well.
I do get the total logic (530-40 expected UER-445 expected ER = 45 extra), just not sure it’s correct.
xFIP includes only walks and strikeouts as its inputs, so I guess I disagree with your “includes all plays” thing, though I’m not sure that’s our fundamental disagreement.
What’s more important than the inputs is the output. xFIP is meant to model ERA, not RA/9. In other words, xFIP is an ERA estimator. It doesn’t tell you anything about unearned runs, and doesn’t try to capture how many runs a staff will allow.
So by my logic, I’m trying to model how many earned runs and unearned runs we should allow based on an average defense, and then how many we have allowed. The net is due to defense.
We should have allowed 445 earned runs and 40 unearned runs. We’ve actually allowed 470 earned runs and 60 unearned runs.
I think I’m right. Or at least not double counting 🙂
I should say that it’s calculating an expected ERA for all plays based on the BBs/Ks.
I get the total calculation you’ve made; I just have a suspicion that because of how xFIP is calculated vs. how UER are tabulated, it ends up overlapping. The problem is that xFIP isn’t calculated really on a given play, but overall, so there’s no way to pinpoint how that would be.
It’s especially true because xFIP is using a constant and factoring total flyballs into the equation. (Though now part of me wonders if we’re undercounting the extra runs, since extra FBs would bring down xFIP, while extra PAs should otherwise impact the IP? Don’t know.) It also uses a constant HR/FB ratio, but what if Tribe Ps give up a higher rate of HRs? That’s not on the fielders, but in this calculation it would be, and harshly. (And in reverse if less.)
Anyway, I just am not sure xFIP is a good tool for analyzing fielding in reverse.
The Indians give up a HR on 10% of FBs, which is higher than the league average of 9.6%, so about 4 HRs which is worth what, 6 runs? So that gives them a little bit back right there to the fielders…
I can get onboard with using FIP instead of xFIP in the analysis for the reason you mention. But neither is concerned with unearned runs. Only earned.
Fair enough on that point.
I guess a better objection would be to take the reverse case. Baltimore’s FIP is .46 worse than its ERA. Its defense is good – just 21 unearned runs – but that does that mean the defense has saved them 40-21=19 + .46*1,131.3 IP/9 = 58 = 77 runs?
I don’t think we’d say the Orioles’ D earned them 77 runs.
I asked this in a comment a few months ago – since no player has improved this year and a few decent ones have regressed (Bourne bad paths to the ball, Swisher, Kipnis, Raburn, Cabrera, Gomes to start the season) is it fair to ask if the laxity Tito shows with veterans in spring training is taking a defensive toll?
The drafting has been so bad that the Tribe as an organization has little experience in getting their draftees ready to play at this level. Almost all of these guys learned their positions in other orgs, and maybe the team needs a rethinking of how to reinforce fundamentals at the major league level. Maybe guys are what they are, but they shouldn’t all be getting worse.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/rapgenius/buckwheat551.jpg
Of the guys you mentioned only Kipnis would concern me and I believe he’s playing with an injury. Gomes is having a very nice season. The rest were/are bums.
No clue on the defense but they should be doing something. Not sure if more drills or work is what is needed but it can’t hurt at this point.
Bourne won a couple of gold gloves. His off-days should still be pretty good. Even when a guy slows down the correct path to balls shouldn’t change, it’s technique and practice.
True not sure what his problem has been but he’s been a tremendous disappointment since signing for me.
In reference to your footnote about the Tigers, I actually had a conversation with the local radio guys here in Toledo about this (106.5). Basically they were talking about getting David Price for essentially Austin Jackson and a guy who will ‘probably never see the majors, or for at least 5 years’. They basically said that the Farm system doesnt matter and that they’ll just go out and ‘buy a better center fielder next year’.
I was sort of appalled that sports guys would basically say that a farm system doesnt matter in baseball. I called and reminded them, hey, thats all fine and dandy paying for a new centerfilder if your ownership wants to do it, but the problem you have now with no farm system is that youre starting Eziquiel Carerra now, and while I think hes a fine player, hes not exactly the guy yoou want being the next man up. So basically, the gist of the story is thats really what a lot of Detroit fans are going to think, as if they werent one of the crappiest teams in baseball for a decade.