Indians 2, Athletics 0: It took a while, but it was worth the wait
April 1, 2014Indians (once again) among best values in MLB
April 1, 2014The Cleveland Browns have a lot of picks in the 2014 NFL draft, but they don’t need 10 new players by the time the weekend is done. The Browns have plenty of needs and should do plenty of work to address those needs in the draft, but more important than anything, they need as many star-level players as possible. I know a lot of this sounds very obvious, but I get the sense that because many think of this as a “deep” draft that the idea of trading down has become palatable to increase the number of picks. While I can’t lay out an actual game plan for what I want the Browns to do, as a general rule for this draft, I’m less interested in having all those third- and fourth-round picks become players than I am seeing if they could be consolidated into one or two picks in higher rounds.
The NFL is a league where depth is key. Nobody knows this better than Browns fans who have seen some amazingly unprepared players get thrust into action over the years. Given that fact, it would seem natural that the Browns would want to just pick all those ten players. The fact is that the Browns should already be deeper and more experienced organically in 2014. The last thing they should want to do is replace all those players with rookies.
Sometimes it’s easy to forget that players like John Hughes, Mitchell Schwartz and Billy Winn are now entering their third years. Same with Travis Benjamin, Tank Carder, Johnson Bademosi, Tashaun Gipson and Ishmaa’ily Kitchen, just to name a few. As for second-year players, the Browns will have Barkevious Mingo and Leon McFadden, but also Jordan Poyer, Josh Aubrey, Armonty Bryant, Garrett Gilkey, MarQueis Gray, Fozzy Whittaker, Edwin Baker, Jamoris Slaughter, and more. That’s a ton of young guys filling out the Browns depth charts at various positions already. They’re young and on their rookie deals, so it makes sense that the Browns now reap the rewards of their experiences as green rookies.
Some of those guys can and should be replaced by drafted rookies with more potential, but how many before it becomes a detriment to the growth of the team? I’d prefer the Browns do some consolidating if they can. No, I don’t want to see them dump a bunch of picks trading up from No. 4 unless they know they have a franchise quarterback they need to go get. Short of that, I want the Browns to stay at No. 4 and then try to get the best possible players they can get, within reason.
Should the Browns trade up from 26? Maybe.
Should the Browns trade up from 35? Maybe.
Should the Browns combine third- and fourth-round picks to add another second rounder? I’d consider that. The Browns’ two third-round picks should easily get the Browns into the top half of the second round again. Could two fourth-round picks get the Browns back into the third? I’d find out.
Forget having ten picks. Take those ten and give me a draft weekend haul of two first-round players, two second rounders and a third rounder and I’ll be elated. That’s the kind of haul that could reshape a team and change its fortunes for a decade going forward. It becomes a top-heavy draft class as opposed to a giant one. That’s alright though. The Browns do need to get better, but as the acquisitions of Karlos Dansby and Donte Whitner told you during free agency, they don’t necessarily need to get any younger.
63 Comments
Here are all 10 picks.
(Round, Pick in Round, Overall)
Time to play wheeler dealer.
1 (4) – 4
1 (26) – 26
2 (3) – 35
3 (7) – 71
3 (19) – 83
4 (6) – 106
4 (27) – 127
5 (5) – 145
6 (4) – 180
7 (3) – 218
Not bad overall, but I’d love to see us pick up another second rounder, and manage to keep both third rounders.
I think having 4 of the top 45 or so picks would be a great goal in theory. As long as they value their move properly, I don’t have an issue with the concept.
Let’s just sweep out the bottom 10 that Lombardi left behind and add some fresh blood to the team. Hopefully 7 draft picks and 3 UFA’s can make the team. I’d put their(5th through 7th and the UFAs) production up against anything Lombanner kept on the roster. Besides a lot of guys were late additions(middle of season) and would have to learn the new system anyway.
Consolidating as much as possible into the top four rounds is ok by me. Swap spots with the Vikes in a deal that gets us their first rounder in 2015 and still gives us two firsts this year and I’d be pretty thrilled, too. I’d love to have ammo to make a move for a QB next year if need be.
First rounder in 2015 as well as 2014 2nd?
The Browns only need 2 Pro Bowl players and 2 Above average to nail this draft – and not even in “impact positions”. Imaging a Probowl guard to go with Thomas and Mack + and ILB. Add a good (not great) CB and WR and this team is rocking. Or, you could trade all that for one outstanding QB. Either way, this team doesn’t need to have “all time great” draft to be an 8-10 win team. Heck, if Hoyer and Gordon start 16 games, we can probably win 8 with the current roster.
Well I’m not sure how the value charts would account for it, but if we could move back from 4 to 8 plus get a first next year and even a third this year I’d be tempted…but a second for this year would be a no-brainer for me.
Right. Determine how ‘deep’ the draft is, i.e. at which points the draft drops off (whether that’s fourth round or wherever), and get all your picks into that zone. Within that zone, make sure you have as many picks in whatever you consider your upper tier vs. middle/lower tiers.
And use that same valuation on next year’s picks. If you can develop a current third-rounder over this year to the point that he’s better than a future hypothetical second-rounder, then trade in. If not, don’t.
If the Browns could get Watkins at #4, I would take him and then see if Derek Carr gets taken in the top half of the 1st round. If he is still there at #16, I would be willing to trade our higher picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds (71 and 106) along with #26 to move up and ensure getting Carr.
i’ll take a minor devils advocate on this because the premise diverges from a pretty fundamental truth: good teams hit on late round picks.
random good teams
seattle: r.bryant(4), chancellor (5), maxwell (6), sherman (5),
niners: gore (3), goldson (4), t.brown (5), bowman (3),
broncos: b.marshall(4), dumervil (4), decker(3)
bengals: geathers(4), peko(4), m.johnson(3), atkins(4), boling(4), m.jones(5), iloka(5).
you get the idea. if we look at the browns it’s rubin(6), cameron(4) and that’s it.
there’s no substitute for drafting well and there’s no shortcut and no uniform rule of thumb to apply. sometimes you trade back (e.g., last year when the rams came calling), sometimes you trade up (e.g., if justin gilbert happens to slide to 20). the draft warroom has to be able to know who they want, assign values, and stick to the plan. it needs to flex both ways.
Sound in principle: better to obtain 3 high quality starters than one plus 5 mehs. But this is Browns Fan Groundhog Day. Trade up, get The Man! Trade down, get more quality players in a shallow pool! The problem is twofold:
1) Accurately identifying the impact player, an area where the New Browns have been generally horrific;
2) Finding a sucker or incompetent to trade with, without later being deemed the sucker/incompetent yourself.
It’s true, all those picks can’t make the team, never mind improve it. But best be careful wishing your rookie GM gets all creative in the first draft he runs. A lot of things can happen, and most of them are bad. I’m not sure I’d be unhappy with Ray Farmer take a few deep breaths and then trying to go with the pitch rather than going for a 3-run jack his first time stepping into the box. Play with the extra third and fourths. But hit the first two rounds solidly up the middle and next thing we’ve landed at the first launchpad to competitiveness, mediocrity.
1. we’ve got four/five key UFAs at the end of this year.
2. the steelers and ravens are in decline.
3. cincy is saddled with dalton for at least another year.
the time to go all-in is NOW.
just say no to deferred draft picks. win now.
after 4, 26, and 35… i say trade up down and sideways to get what ever guy they want. we have the advantage. lets use it. either just get a bunch a guys by staying pat, or a few that we wouldn’t have been able to get otherwise…
2 Pro Bowlers and 2 solid starters would be considered an ‘all time great’ draft.
2 rules:
1. Trust Your Board.
2. Do not reach.
But, if management is stricken with “Smartest Guy In The Room” syndrome, then both rules are worthless.
Let’s have one of those, yes?
it’s roundabout, but i’d like to trade down from 4 (to 7-11), then use the extra pick (2nd rounder) to package with maybe 2 thirds, or even our other 2nd to get another late teen 1st rounder.
so:
1 (7-11)
1 (15-19)
1 (26)
…
WFNY should be interviewing Rajiv Joseph to see what he would do!!
(He graduated from Heights High and wrote Draft Day, for those who don’t know)
The guys betting in Vegas think 7 wins minimum. 6.5 wins next year and heavy juice -145 on the over at Jimmy Vaccaro’s joint. The wiseguys don’t bank on any individual players, especially rookie QB’s, to form their opinion. I’m very hopeful but….
You know
yessir, you summed up what I want to do. then, take some of those lower round picks and see if we can either bank a higher pick for 2015 or move up into the top4 rounds this year too.
later middle round ones I don’t mind deferring (5th and later) as long as we get what we want/need with our early picks and perhaps do what saggy described above (best case scenario IMO). that way we are going all-in AND banking for the future. double whammy to the rest of the division.
still over a month to go? okay, I’ll keep dreaming, I know I’m not the only one.
last time the browns had picks 4 and 26 they came away with jonathan ogden and ray lewis.
Armonty Bryant? Hughes late enough? soft on Skrine/Pinkston (even though both may be starters – so, at least getting contributors late there).
yeah, overall pretty weak for us late in the draft.
the last time the Browns had picks 4 & 26, the NFL took them away from the team and awarded them to the Ravens.
[it is kinda freaky that we have the exact same picks as in 96, though. this is the first i’d noticed.]
The 1964, 1957 and 1953 drafts all had multiple HOFs. Those were some all time great drafts. Lets have one of those.
Wow. Was Rubin really a 6th rounder? Not sure I ever knew that.
Arguably Phil Savage’s greatest pick
At some point, Pettine (I think) was quoted about his perception of the team having many holes to fill.
Remember, the Browns talent evaluation also has to include players currently on the roster. If Farmer and staff are good, they’ve already identified more than 10 positions of immediate need.
If they can grab a guy they believe will be an improvement, that has to take priority over trading up or down, no?
Winn?
Hopefully this doesn’t make Barkevious Mingo our Craig Powell?
all good players but not ‘impact’ like sherman or dumervil or chancellor or atkins, etc.
I may get shredded for this, but can’t help but wonder… With no franchise QB this year in the draft, should the Browns consider trading picks for a first rounder next year in hopes of trading up for Mariota/Winston? Not saying I am hoping for this, but I just want to know what the Browns can do to get that GREAT QB, other than getting a lucky break on a guy no one saw coming.
I wouldn’t claim to know how to do it, but I think doing it would be very prudent.
nothing wrong with thinking outside the box. However, I would say no, simply because you just have no idea what’s going to transpire between now and then. Who gets hurt? Who has a bad season? Who decides to stay in school?
Last year at this time, lots of people were convinced Bridgewater was the slam dunk #1 pick, and that Brett Hundley and Marcus Mariota were going to be in the draft.
So, if it were up to me, I’d say no…but depending on what the trade was, I wouldn’t immediately disregard such an idea.
but Richardson was our Touchdown Tommy. uh oh.
Please don’t misunderstand, I’m not saying pack it in and start planning for 2015. Every point you made here is true, and I agree that this season could be a great opportunity for the Browns to become relevant quickly. As I’ve noted here before, there are several approaches to this draft that I can get behind, and all of them involve using all of our available picks in the first 3-4 rounds. What I’m saying here is that there is a way that we can get some serious talent at multiple areas of need this year while still pocketing something to help us in the 2015 draft, where I anticipate a better crop of QBs to be available. Then if the Hoyer experiment doesn’t pan out and/or the developmental QB(s) we draft outside of the first round this year don’t wow us initially we can still currency to move up for “our guy” next year.
There is no excuse for this team to not make a push to contend in 2014. But we can work toward that while still hedging a bit toward 2015, and be no worse off for it.
those 3 second rounders a few years back gave a big boost to the team.
That syndrome has plagued this franchise since Touchdown Tommy.
The short answer? Yes. Slightly longer? Hell yes. Max makes a good point on unpredictability, but I still like the potential of the guys (likely) to be in next year’s crop than what this draft has to offer. Take a guy or two this year to develop, no doubt. But we can both get quality guys this year and plan for next without sacrificing much.
That’s why we haven’t invited Eric Mangini back to run the draft.
I don’t like to get this specific because I’m not smart enough when it comes to truly scouting and projecting players in a pro system. I do feel qualified to talk more generally about draft strategy and “playing poker” on draft day. That was my biggest complaint about the Weeden / TRich draft. I felt the Browns were outplayed at the poker table and paid for it by giving up picks unnecessarily.
oh man, you have just created a fun game. guess which 6th/7th round projected pick with terrible measurables Mangini would take in the 2nd round of this year’s draft.
I have to get to my kids’ baseball game, but you can bet I’m going to pull up kanick’s combine spreadsheet and spend too much time on that question tomorrow 🙂
Just need a name for it. Hmmm, the Mangini-Veikune Player of the Year?
G.O.A.T! For Savage at least
I would love to see the Browns trade away another 4th round pick this year for a 3rd round pick next year, preferably with a team the FO sees on the decline. Having a stockpile of 3rd round picks year after year is invaluable for potential trades, trading up in the draft, or simply grabbing the players you want.
i get you. howsabout we inquire about the vikes’ 2nd rounder this year versus their first next year though. thats where im at.
Chris Borland.
Don’t forget about some UDFAs that pan out, like Josh Cribbs did. Gipson and Robertson are still in the air, and the Browns signed a WR that was UDFA in Hawkins. Of course one of the biggest UDFA success stories is Arian Foster in Houston, he being the reason they let Tate walk and sign with the Browns.
Too bad Pittspuke won’t want to do that again. Maybe the Eagles will be desperate? Or any other NFCE team? Carolina might come to mind since they’re grinding against the cap.