Mike Brown doesn’t want to hear your excuses
November 7, 2013Cleveland Browns Film Room: Blitzing the Ravens
November 7, 2013One of the biggest disappointments of the Tribe’s mostly pleasant season was the regression of Asdrubal Cabrera. It would seem that in the last year of his contract and considering declining production that the Indians might be stuck with Asdrubal, but maybe not. Keith Law of ESPN believes that Cabrera could still be moved.
I think he’ll get moved, as he’s a free agent after the season, makes $10 million this year and Cleveland has top prospect Francisco Lindor breathing down his neck. The problem for GM Chris Antonetti is that Cabrera isn’t very good any more…
He’s just 27 years old and I’m sure some teams will look at him as a bounceback candidate, but if he can’t guarantee you a minimum value with his glove, I’d be uncomfortable giving him that much money to play short.
This is Major League Baseball and I’m not entirely positive that $10 million is enough to make Asdrubal Cabrera a bad risk for some GM in some baseball market. I’m pretty sure that market isn’t Cleveland. It’s amazing how much difference a year makes. At one time Asdrubal Cabrera was thought to be a potential franchise cornerstone for the Tribe. That version of Asdrubal seemed to disappear along with the sage “SWING HARD” advice that came from short-time double-play battery mate Orlando Cabrera, who played 91 games for the Tribe in 2011.
[Related:Â The Diff: Indians offseason, 2014 salary and contention windows]
63 Comments
It’s sort of an odd idea: can we trade a guy who is not very good at baseball? I think we probably can, but we might get back a bag of balls and a 64oz of Mickeys.
Suggesting that Acab started losing value when he started swinging hard is just plain wrong. Swinging hard resulted in his best season ever. And adjusting for BABIP, his avg and OBP have has been pretty consistent both pre and post “swing hard”.
I think you keep him. You wouldn’t get much back for him and there is hope that he can somewhat return to form since he had an unlucky BABIP in ’13. I’m still worried about his K rate and his seeming lack of desire, but maybe those will change in a pre-FA year.
You misunderstood. I was saying he was good when he had the “swing hard” advice and it slowly wore off after the departure of Orlando. It was mostly a joke though.
Astrubal now has so many red flags, since his good seasons tailed off dramatically and his “fitness” year created much worse results, that I’m guessing most teams assume that his career has fallen off the table in his prime a la Baerga. Why would any GM gamble $10m on that (or even $8m, if the Tribe uncharacteristically kicked in $2m just so they could move on)?
I’m thinking the best that can happen is that next spring Lindor comes out of the gates blazing, and after a half-season the Tribe calls him up (with Aviles as a safety net) and peddles Astrubal with “only” $5m left in contract baggage to some team with major infield injury problems.
To me his fate was determined in his crucial bases loaded at-bat in the playoff game vs. Tampa. It was like his one last shot to prove his worth and value to the Indians. A big hit there would have gone a long way, and instead he grounded out. To me it just sort of summed up his recent play with the team and showed us in a microcosm of that at-bat where he is headed. I like the guy, but definitely time to move on and trade him for pitching. Of course it won’t be quality pitching, but landing a Lance Lynn, or Jason Motte for him from a team like the Cardinals who are desperate for a SS would be quality return value in my mind.
There’s nothing there that 30 points of BABIP doesn’t fix immediately. He has a career rate (including last year) of .313, and it was .283 last year. His LD% last year of .23 would also typically result in a much better BABIP.
He was still top ten offensively at the position, give him back those 30 points, and he’s top five.
That defense on the other hand, it was never that good, but it’s become a serious liability.
Mickey’s bag of balls weighs 64oz? I mean, he’s a good coach but that’s TMI for me.
I would still love to have him at 3B. He fields stuff hit right at him and give him a chance to bounce-back at the plate. We’d have to find a real good glove at SS though (not sure where) and basically give-up on Chisenhall (I’m not opposed if we can get back some decent RP options).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q27YiPRiewg
I question if his “true” Babip rate is .313, especially cause of age, but I agree with your overall point. A “more normal” babip rate makes his 2013 look a lot better.
I know this is a HUGE stretch but I hope Asdrubal gets traded and Lindor is the opening day shortstop. With a line up full of veterans, he wouldn’t be asked to do to much offensively. Put him in the 9-hole and let develop at his own pace. Defensively, he is already a upgrade from Asdrubal. The last player to make the jump from AA to the bigs for the Indians was CC Sabathia. That worked out pretty well.
Am I the only one feeling a little deja vu here? Sounds like the exact conversations we were having about Jhonny.
I’d much rather give Chisenhall another chance. He’s still pre-arb and under contract for a while. Those are the guys we have to develop. Cabrera is pretty much gone after this season either way.
I don’t think he’ll be great at 3B. Very unimpressed by Cabrera’s hands, he makes some flashy plays but also lets routine ones bounce off his glove. And while the arm is good, I don’t think it’s 3B-good. I’d guess he’d be just as much a liability at 3B.
Career LD-rate of 20.6%. He’s hitting a few more flyballs than grounders compared to his early career rates, but this is still a guy that should be expected to top a .300 BABIP.
Maybe aging has taken something away from his “true” rate, but it’s higher than what it was in 2013, by a meaningful margin.
Using our handy-dandy xBABIP calculator here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/eating-crow-xbabip-and-the-shift/#more-32358
Using 2009-2011 data, his BABIP in 2013 would be expected to be .318. Using half a season of 2012 data, .303. There is something to be said for the decline in offense, and improvement in defense recently which might make the half season of 2012 data be more useful than the 2009-2011 data. I still pretty good about betting on another 20 points of BABIP for Asdrubal next year.
“That version of Asdrubal seemed to disappear along with the sage “SWING HARD” advice that came from short-time double-play battery mate Orlando Cabrera, who played 91 games for the Tribe in 2011.”
Now A-Cab’s double-play battery mate is whoever just got on base ahead of him…
I hope so! I’m just getting tired of his lackidasical (spelling?) play and all around terrible defense. He had so much potential… How many times have we heard that though?
Yes. And now that Jhonny is history in Detroit, watch Asdrubal end up there, revived, revitalized, and killing the Tribe.
ba dum dum
lackadaisical
Quality Control is here to help.
So pray that he has a strong season up till all star break?
His range sucks too
He did that all season. Any time I watched him I was afraid when he was AB with RISP
Gary, my friend, what would I do without you?
You would still be you, but life would be less full.
MUCH less full. Don’t forget to watch that Oregon game tonight to see the #1 QB for next spring’s draft
Oh, I’ll be watching, but rooting for Stanford all the way. Sorry.
I am definitely looking forward to seeing Mariota, as I haven’t seen him play yet this year, and do agree (based on analysis I have seen) that he probably is the best of the bunch. Too bad the Browns won’t be in the running for him.
Or is it? Will be nice to be drafting out of the top 10 for once.
funn you mention him as I wouldn’t be opposed to signing Mr. Peralta to play 3B either.
Lonnie is young. But, he also was terrible at the plate and for large portions of the year he was hurting us in the field too. he is young, but the signs are not good right now.
I’m kind of torn between rooting for Oregon or Stanford. I love Oregon but we do need 2 of the top 3 teams to go down by the end of the season for OSU to get that title shot. And yea it’s a win-lose kind of thing. Nice to be a decent team but we won’t have a great pick.
If that’s the case, why trade him? (Assuming we don’t regress as a team.)
honestly, I think we’d need 3 of the 4 including Baylor.
at this point, I’m sort of hoping that Bama v. FSU is the title game and that the Bucks and Ducks are undefeated playing for the 100th Rose Bowl crown.
I’d be surprised if either A) Baylor doesn’t lose or B) if they leapfrogged us even if they do run the table. However I do not think that FSU would or should go to the title game if both they and Oregon win out.
Not to mention I do not think that FSU can beat Bama (who I really can’t stand) but I do think that Oregon have a chance. Don’t get me wrong Bama would be favorites but I think the Ducks would make it close and possibly pull out a W
Not to sound like a broken record, but I really don’t see the Cards deal happening. If they wanted him, they would have come and got him last year. I realize their hole at SS is more glaring now then before, but ACab sure looks like less of an answer. Why give up quality players for a one year rental on a guy who may rebound? If I’m the Cards, I’d rather pay more for a better, longer answer (or less for a just as good one).
He may rebound. We shall see. I’m for keeping him. Think he has more upside there than selling low on him now. My main complaint with him is that if he doesn’t hit, he really doesn’t have much value (what with the questionable defense).
it is a tough debate on who has the stronger schedule between the 2 teams.
Oregon – Wash, UCLA, Stanford, and maybe AZ State?
FSU – Clemson, Miami, Florida?, and maybe Miami again.
Slight edge to the Ducks, but it’s pretty darn close. Given how the votes go, whoever blows out their conference champ game bigger would likely get the edge.
Also, don’t rule out the Rose Bowl undercutting Oregon by making voters aware that they would get 2 undefeated matchups if Oregon finishes 3rd, but only 1 if Oregon finishes 2nd (FSU would be assigned the Orange Bowl).
As for Baylor, the Buckeyes really, really need Michigan State to win out until they play us because we don’t have a quality win without them. With Michigan spitting the bit, Wisconsin at home is our best win on the schedule. Baylor would have Oklahoma & Tech at home and OkieState on the road (no, I don’t believe in Texas). Honestly, the BigXII is just as bad as the Big10 this year, so I could see them running it. But, voters will remember the last couple years of the BigXII being better and that could give them the edge.
He’s entered my mind as well. Problem with him is I have no idea what kind of deal he’ll get. His performance was schizo before the PED issues.
I hear what you’re saying about the 2 all undefeated games and that would be intriguing. I don’t really want Oregon to play OSU though because I want to be able to root for both in a big bowl game. I think if Oregon beats Stanford it will be 100 times better than any win FSU could get (exaggeration obviously but you get my point). I just don’t believe in Clemson or Miami at all. I think you could throw Oregon State as a maybe for the Ducks depending on what they do between now and the last week of regular season.
As for Baylor, I think they’re all smoke and mirrors. You give me OSU vs Baylor I’ll take OSU by 2 TDs. I think an MSU win (and I do think they’ll win out) will be much more impressive than any Big 12 teams. MSU is very quietly putting together a great team.
I love Mickey’s btw. First time I ever had it was a game of Edward 40hands with 2 Mickey’s. Good beer
I do think Sparty is a very good team. Top10 good. And, I think that’ll be enough to hold off Baylor as it’ll trump anything the BigXII has to offer. But, I also know Mich.St’s history and I’m not taking an unblemished record down the stretch for granted 🙂 They are the Clemson of the Big10!
Another factor in Cabrera’s favor this year is a lack of quality SS available. Boston gave Stephen Drew a Qualifying Offer; which pretty much explains how bare the SS market really is.
Fair enough. To be frank I’d be very surprised if there are 4 or more undefeateds at end of year. What a circus it would create though. Thank god we’re going to a playoff. But could you imagine if THIS year was the playoff and FSU, Bama, OSU, Baylor and Oregon ran the table. Holy crap that’d be bad. They really should have either 6 or 8 teams
That’s a very good point kildawg. Supply and demand is always a factor. And even though ACab lost some value over the last 2 years he is still a decent option when looking at the entire market
Sparty will give a good game. Remember that tOSU barely beat them last year. Oregon and Ohio State would have an epic Rose Bowl. That was the last time a B1G team won the Rose Bowl with TJ Ward playing in that game as well.
Look what Choo did with Cincy this past year. Cabrera can bounce back with a team like STL that has the obvious hole and surplus at SP/RP and corner IF. Another way to drive up the price is using a team like PIT who could also use a 1 year stopgap SS.
Fair point, but I’m not sure Choo had to “bounce back” nearly as much as Cabrera does. But yes Cabrera and PIT would be a good fit. They’d be perfect for eachother at this point.
Honestly as much as I love the Buckeyes, I don’t think OSU wants anything to do with Oregon right now. They’re so good offensively and their defense is ridiculously underrated (as is my sports knowledge by my wife. She just doesn’t care to hear it for some reason)
that is exactly why the Buckeyes DO want Oregon. if Ohio State runs the table and is stuck with a 2loss Stanford team, then it’ll still be a battle (games with them always are), but we cannot put any icing on the undefeated run with a win. Beat an undefeated Oregon team? 2nd time we have beat the Ducks in a BCS game? Now, we are talking about building the necessary hype for our run in 2014.
(I agree that some team(s) will likely trip up perhaps the Bucks vs. Sparty, but it’s more fun to talk about the possibilities while they are there because it’s fun)
we have a good working relationship with their FO as well. Get Errr Done Antonetti!!!
I hear you and if we beat them it would be great. However watching both teams, I think Oregon would beat us. Besides we wouldn’t necessarily get Stanford anyway. We’d likely get the team that Oregon would beat in the PAC-12 title game (whoever wins the south). But your point is still valid. A win against an undefeated Oregon would be much more meaningful.
My question for you is, would a loss to Oregon hurt more than a win against the PAC-12 south winner would help?