WFNY Stats & Info: Ubaldo Jimenez’s continued improvement
September 4, 2013NFL News: Barkevious Mingo joins teammates practicing in pads
September 4, 2013There is a big difference between expectations and predictions. I’ve been very consistent with my Browns expectations since last season ended, and I’m not willing to change them now.
Based on the roster that was in place and the opportunities that this front office has had with their first off-season, I believe it’s reasonable to expect this Browns team to win eight games this season. Eight wins seems like an outside possibility, and I hope I’m wrong, but that wouldn’t be my prediction right now. Regardless, that will be my baseline for criticism this season. I want to see if the Browns look and feel like an eight-win team. I want to see if the Browns seem like they’re on an upward trajectory. I want to see how this team competes and carries itself as they either hit, surpass or fall short of my eight win expectations.
I’m taking a realistic approach to what I think a reasonable NFL fan can expect from a team at the Browns’ current development level. As Browns teams go, this one has been on a path since Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert arrived. They were old and bad when Heckert arrived. Then they were young and bad for a while, but many Browns fans and media members have assumed that they were even worse than they should have been due to coaching. Now, with a new front office and coaching staff in place and another year of experience on a roster that didn’t need a complete overhaul, this Browns team is still young, but they should be markedly better.
Again, I’m not predicting eight wins. There are too many questions that the Browns need to answer. Will Buster Skrine be a capable second corner? If he’s not, the front office will have a lot of explaining to do. Will Brandon Weeden make progress? If not, is it coaching? Should the front office have seen the writing on the wall? Will Trent Richardson make progress and also remain healthy? If not, were his backups capable and ready? My point is that we all knew and know the questions â including Rob Chudzinski, Joe Banner and Michael Lombardi â and the job of the team is to take the inherited team and improve them by answering those questions. If they did so successfully, it could be an eight win season.
Of course, we still have to watch the team and judge with our own eyes. If the Browns don’t win eight games it doesn’t necessarily mean that Banner, Lombardi and Chudzinski have failed. There are always going to be things that happen like injuries that make the task of meeting expectations impossible. There’s a chance that this team could win five games again and still pass muster with our eyes. I talked about this a couple weeks ago when comparing Brandon Weeden with Andrew Luck. If you just look at stats from their rookie seasons, you might be able to find a way to convince yourself that Brandon Weeden and Andrew Luck aren’t all that different. Anyone who actually watched both of them play knows this is false.
That’s why eight wins is not the only way for 2013 to be a successful season for the Browns. If for whatever reason Brian Hoyer has to play quarterback for a large portion of the season, it’s probably unreasonable to crush a front office for not being able to win with their third string quarterback. Then again if Brian Hoyer is playing and the defense is playing a good amount of dominant football and they’re still losing close games, that does mean something more than just a big fat L on the schedule.
So, we’ll see. I know I’ve written a lot of these types of things before, but as we head into another Browns season wondering what this team can be, it’s important to reset the baseline for criticism. I expect a season of competent football with moments that should make us think we’re watching a playoff team and other moments that show us how far they have to go.
More specifically, these are things I’m expecting. It’s time for the Browns to start winning a bit more in the division and beat the more marginal teams on their schedule in more decisive fashion. It’s time for the Browns to avoid starting the season with five game losing streaks. It’s time for the Browns to give the fans more satisfying victories than, say, 7-6 over the Chargers at home. It’s time to have a team that doesn’t cause us to look at the draft in search of a savior, but rather as an off-season event to improve depth and reliability.
I think it’s possible. I think it’s reasonable. It is what I expect out of this year’s Browns.
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(Image via Candice Vlcek/WFNY)
62 Comments
If 1) Brandon Weeden throws at least 5 more TDs than INTS, 2) Richardson plays at least 14 games, 3) the defensive unit as a whole finishes in the top 15 in the league, and 4) Cameron and/or Gordon develops into a legitimate top 15 player at their respective position, I’d call this season a definite success.
This is what I expect from the Browns this year:
1. Chudzinski will have bragging rights against the doubters/haters that claim the Browns will win 2 – 5 games. (I thinking 8 or 9 wins myself)
2. Lombardi will redeem himself, if he hasn’t done so already.
3. Brandon Weeden will show why he will be the starting QB for the Browns for the foreseeable future.
4. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns get a WR, CB, and K in next years draft.
5. The ramen burger will become very popular because of the Cleveland Browns.
6. ????????
7. Profit. (and be very fun to watch)
End of line.
Oh hey hi I’m commenting on a football post!
Just wanted to say that if I wrote this exact same post about the Indians–pie-in-the-sky goal of .500 but with some upfront allowance that it’s kind of unreasonable to demand such improvement–I’d be drawn and quartered.
AND IT’S FUNNY HOW IT SWITCHES LIKE THAT!
1/6th of the season left and reasonably in the playoff race. that’s roughly 3 games left for the Browns.
so, imagine we are 1GB of the 2nd wild card with 3 teams tied or ahead of us with only Chicago, @NYJ, @Pitt left on our schedule.
in the AFC, I think that means we’ll need to be 7-6.
much tougher climb for Gordon to get there than Cameron (just because of the quality of top15 WR in the NFL), so let’s hope on him I guess. The rest seem reasonable.
I’d first add (among other things):
(5) We re-sign Ward & Mack to extensions who continue to be under-appreciated good players on our team.
(6) We finish in the top8 of QB-pressures (not just sacks)
I just dont want to look back on the season and say, We should have been X-X (unless we win more than we should have). I shouldn’t ever have to curse (negatively) at the coach on TV for a stupid mistake.
(7) We finish at least +5 in TO
(8) We don’t give away any games due to coaching mistakes
What I expect to see from the Browns:
1) A swarming, aggressive defense that makes the offense react to and game plan for them, not the other way around.
2) Barring injuries, Richardson and Gordon will both establish themselves as elite players at their respective positions
3) Weeden plays well enough that we won’t need to draft a QB in the first round next year.
4) Good play calling that plays to the strengths of our personnel
5) 3 wins in the division, at least one each against the Squealers and the Ratbirds
6) 7+ wins overall
7) Meaningful football in December
8) A team that finishes the season EXPECTING to make the playoffs in 2014, not “maybe we can if everything breaks right”
Not funny how we always hope/pray for our teams to hang around or be close to mediocre (.500)
Craig I think you forgot your season record prediction.
Stop trying to divide the city – your all losers! (I had to it was just to easy!)
Have trouble with predicting records but here’s what I’m at least expecting to see:
– Crisp football things on both sides of the ball and special teams. You have experienced coordinators everywhere now. Prompt play calls, minimal confusion, correct number of players on field, players generally knowing what they’re at least supposed to be doing.
– By about game 4, Weeden looking like he knows where to go with the ball and attempting to do so with confidence, even after Cousins has turnstiled a blitzer into his face. Quick, where is your hot option, Brandon? If your favorite receiver X is doubled, where is Y on the field? I care less about overthrows, underthrows and even batted balls than whether this particular QB, who “worked so hard” with the playbook, has what it takes in football IQ to do something other than wing it to wide open college receivers. Without football IQ he won’t manage a game, never mind be a playmaker. And next year will be yet another reboot.
– When Mingo resurfaces, Mingo is a load. If he’s not clearly explosive off the snap and causing at least some false starts and QB hurries there’s a problem. Shouldn’t have to wait at all to see this, even while experienced o-linemen get the best of him most times. Eventually he might be a game force, but if his athletecism doesn’t jump off the screen then this was a fat Lombardi exploding cigar.
With these 3 things we have our yearned for mediocrity, gentlemen. We might only be Salieri to a division Mozart but we can finally hang around and figure out the next jump.
If the Browns do this, we’ll have a parade. Indians do it? They suck!
honestly, we are football town, so it’s expected. but, I do find it funny that people understand how MLB is unfair towards small market teams and the NFL is on a more level playing field. yet, the Indians are actually doing it despite that uneven field and still do not get credit.
‘your’
Cleveland possesses ALL THE LOSERS! đ
sshhh!! Let him have his fun đ
I’ll set the bar at ‘Tennessee’, as in Tennessee is the state from which Jimmy Haslem’s lawyers will have passed the bar exam.
/whistles, meanders away
I’d like to see a season devoid of ridiculous off-field front office drama. That’s probably asking too much though.
It’s not just that they don’t get credit. They get scorn, resentment, and hate.
I can’t help it like when I’m at the commode I always drip a little afterwards.
I don’t ask for much thank you.
Oh now buck up buddy the sun will come out tomorrow…
I thought for sure you were going to go with “as in Tennessee is the state where Jack Daniels is made”
I’m not the angry one. I’ve been loving the Indians’ season all summer and am happy just to have Browns football back.
How about a little bitter then? I heard Bud Shaw comment on MS&LL how he couldn’t understand why this town was divided between the Indians and Browns. Why choose, why not both? That made me pause for a brief moment until I checked on the BoSox pitching match-up for the day.
Hell yea and it’s hump daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay 2!
Bitter? Maybe. I think it’s more annoyed and exhausted. I told people in April/May- “Stop lying. We all know people won’t show up in September even if we’re in the race.” And sure enough… Wish I was wrong more often. And less attractive. But enough with the complaining. Go Browns.
The Rock smells what you are cookin’ on being wrong more then he’s right but especially on being less attractive. Honestly, they are both curses which I must shoulder on a daily basis!
Sorry, one more: How beautiful is that helmet? Do not understand why anyone would ever contemplate changing that helmet one bit. When the Browns start winning that color will look to us like morning in America.
As opposed to the ‘mourning in America’ emotions that it currently elicits.
My expectations:
1) If healthy, Richardson rushes for more than 1250 yards. (This would put him in the 7-10 range in the NFL for yards, based on last season.)
2) The offense jumps from 30th to at least 16th (or, top half of the league) in 3rd down conversions. They were 30.7% successful last year (ugh), and to get to 16th they’d need to jump up to around 38%. That seems reasonable to me, given the upgrade in coaching and experience.
3) I want to see the defensive line collapsing the pocket. I don’t know that there’s a tangible “stat” to apply, here, but this team should have the horses up front to play the 3-4, at least on the D-line. As much as they’ve tried to upgrade the OLB position, it’s going to be far more important for the D-line to suck up blockers and collapse the opposing O-line.
4) I want to see three wins by 14 points or more. That will be a sign that this team isn’t on the bottom rung. The Jets are terrible. Jacksonville is terrible. The Bills aren’t that good. The Chiefs aren’t that good. I personally don’t think Miami is that good. Beat a few of those teams by two touchdowns and I’ll be impressed. They should be able to do that a time or two.
1b) Weeden completes 63+% of his passes and averages 7+ YPA
2b) Richardson averages at least 4.2 YPC
9) Finish in the top quarter of the league in field position and/or net punt/kickoff yards, both for and against
10) Don’t lose a game due to a missed kick
It ain’t easy being us.
This is why I’ve stated on multiple occasions that the Indians might earn themselves some goodwill if they ever chopped off the front office and started over. Maybe it’s just P.R. garbage, but the Browns have started over. Maybe Shapiro and Antonetti are the best guys for the job, but there’s just no questioning that Shapiro promoted himself to President in 2010 after the season of 69 wins, which chased a season of 65 wins.
The Indians might be able to “reset the clock” the way the Browns continually do if they didn’t look so satisfied with the organization that’s had one playoff appearance in the last decade.
At least new losers might not be losers until they have a chance to prove to us that they aren’t winners!
An Indians reset would likely have to include an ownership change in order to produce the desired effect.
I bid $10.
Well said on all counts. I fear that would be the perfect storm. I will take 5/8.
what if the 3 missing are 2, 6, and 7?
1b*) You know only 10 QBs did that last year right?
2b*) I am interested in Richardson’s YAC. Need to see him have pos yards after that first hit.
11) average more points on Offense than points given up on D.
A whole lot of mights in that post.
When has the Cleveland fan base ever given Dolan the benefit of the doubt?
My expectation is that we look better than last year and appear to be headed in the right direction. We definitely need more than our usual 5 wins to accomplish that. Seven wins seems about right for the team as constructed, give or take a game.
The key to our season is health. That is due to our complete lack of depth in some areas. Our backup RB is a UFA who was headed to another team’s practice squad. Our backup TE was brought here primarily to block, and our third TE is a UFA who was brought in a couple days ago. I don’t know (and don’t want to know) who would replace Thomas, Mack or Schwartz. No one can come remotely close to replacing Haden. I’m not sure any two of our DB’s could adequately cover his man (#1 WR). Take away DQ and the middle of our defense is two second year UFA LB’s, one of whom will presumably call the defensive plays. We have a similar situation if TJ has to sit out a few games, which he normally does. Injuries could easily send us into free fall.
I agree with the front office housecleaning the problem is Francona hitched himself to their bandwagon. OR maybe it was vice versa and we were all just led to believe the opposite. It would more sense that way.
I tried after this winter but then they followed it up with being relatively silent at the trade deadline. This winter will tell me something.
That second paragraph makes me think of A Shawshank Redemption:
“I find I’m so excited that I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it’s the excitement only a free man can feel. A free man at a start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope I can make it across the border. I hope to see my friend and shake his hand. I hope the pacific is as blue as it has been in my dreams. I hope.”
it will likely tell you that they ate up the budget last year with raises that are going to take effect this offseason.
Well . . . . . .
Considering that a GREAT season in MLB is finish somewhere around .600 and a GREAT season in the NFL is a finish somewhere around .800, I’d say you’ve got an apple in one hand and an orange in the other, trying to find the similarities in a sea of obvious differences.
He’s a witch! Burn him!
For #3 I believe you’re looking for QB hurries, not necessarily sacks but pressuring the QB into a throw, be it incomplete or a Haden/Gipson INT.
All I said was that the halibut was fit for Jehovah!
Hope not for their sakes otherwise the slight attendance boost they may have seen from this year in season tickets sales may go by the way side.
Jacob has laid out the numbers several times now. Unless we do something drastic with guys like Perez, Asdrubal there just isn’t much of a budget left (assuming the same starting payroll from this season, which we should expect).