General

While We’re Waiting… DRAFT DAY!

cavs logo 70s

“While We’re Waiting” serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com.

WFNYBanner www

“Alex Len, Maryland. Upside scenario: His ankle not only heals properly but the rest of both feet are also dipped in reinforced titanium. Maryland’s point guards actually were as bad as everyone claims and Len was injured for far longer than he’s letting on, which explains his mediocre stats. He gets stronger and adds a couple of post counter-moves while still maintaining his nifty footwork and solid hands. In a league where Dwight Howard is still one of the best big men around with a giant fork in his back, Len becomes an All-Star-caliber center for a decade.

Downside scenario: The stress fracture is just the first sign that the 7-foot Ukrainian isn’t going to be healthy enough to even see if he can get good enough. NBA big men routinely bang him out of position on the block and back him down at will. Len starts getting compared to other big men who had mediocre numbers and left school early. Maryland’s point guards end up with better NBA careers.” [Glockner/Point Forward]

—-

“The scandal has shaken a company that fuels the nation’s trucking industry, and it has put the spotlight on a hard-charging family that says it borrows tactics from the football field to excel in the tough business of peddling diesel.

On a glorious recent evening, when many people were outdoors barbecuing, Jimmy, now the 59-year-old chief executive of privately held Pilot, was inside his home, flanked by his wife, Dee, his dad and his stepmother, Natalie.

The room had gone dead silent as he considered the dark cloud hanging over his company and his family. Investigators appear to be pressing for indictments, maybe even his, he acknowledged. He says he hasn’t done anything wrong and he is “very comfortable” with his personal position.” [Morris/Wall Street Journal]

—-

“Chudzinski started at tight end for three seasons during his time as a player at the University of Miami from 1986-90. His first job in the NFL was the Browns’ tight ends coach in 2004. As an offensive coordinator, Chudzinski has helped Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow put together Pro Bowl seasons.

And now, as a head coach, Chudzinski’s offensive coordinator, Norv Turner, shares the desire to utilize a tight end. But do the Browns have a tight end to utilize?” [Delco/The OBR]

—-

“Advanced statistics have become increasingly popular at every level of basketball, but there are important differences in the data sets from the NBA and NCAA. There are more than 10 times as many Division I programs as there are NBA teams, so the talent is more spread out. The problem is even more acute with big men, since there are so few NBA-caliber ones in college. Robinson’s collegiate numbers against substandard competition were a classic example of a “false positive”.

In his first two years at Kansas, Robinson backed up Cole Aldrich, Marcus Morris and Markieff Morris, all of whom were Top-15 picks. As a result, he didn’t start until his junior season, following the departure of the Morris Twins. The Jayhawks played one of the top schedules in the country that season, finishing with a 32-7 record and a berth in the national championship game. Yet, despite playing in a number of high-level games, Robinson saw very few NBA-caliber big men.” [Tjarks/Real GM]

—-

Finally, something fun to discuss. What do you think of Nebraska’s new alternate uniforms? [Dr. Saturday]

  • Harv 21

    The piece on Robinson’s NBA difficulties speaks volumes about looking at big man college stats without drilling down to look at who’s guarding him and the circumstances of success/failure. This is what scares me about Noel. Going head to head against Len he was dominated, and in general a whole lot of his points look like they were created by NBA-ready teammates who demanded so much attention that his path to the hole was left wide open and follow up dunks were right in front of him.

    But the flip side is the false assumption that a 19-20 year old pretty much is what he is. Not sure why this must be IF a kid has the physical tools and work ethic. Maybe there’s an assumption that modern kids are spoiled and virtually ruined by lack of emphasis on fundamentals in the AAU circuit. Not sure why Robinson cannot learn skills necessary to be productive. If a bull in a china shop like Tristan is doing it …

  • mgbode

    yes, you nailed it. then, extend that to the Euro leagues which exasperate the issue even further with the talent levels (and they even play by different rules).

    GM`s had it much easier 20 years ago when they were all evaluating years of college work done by older players against more NBA-level competition (and it was still hard).

  • saggy

    was gonna say the same thing. just a lot less eloquent-like.

    IMO it is also easier to tell what kind of a DEFENDER a player is at any level, due to the core values of defense: hard work, proper positioning, communication. Noel seems to have that. I haven’t watched enough Len to know about him.

  • saggy

    If I am the Cavs and I positively CAN’T trade my picks or improve the team with a trade, i have NO problem drafting some young Euros (with late picks) who can take 2 years to develop over there, a la Rubio.

    Frankly, I am not sure why more NBA teams don’t go this route. you basically farm out a pick so that he doesn’t play and your team suffers, only to have a high pick the next year along with an improved previous first-rounder. It worked like a charm for the Spurs with Duncan and Robinson.

  • mgbode

    “The company’s debt nearly doubled to $4 billion in a two-year period
    through last year, as its owners paid themselves two payments totaling
    $1.7 billion from it, according to Moody’s. Last year, Pilot issued $1.1
    billion of the debt—largely to fund the second one, a dividend for $700
    million, according to S&P. That was partly so Jimmy could buy the
    Cleveland Browns.”

    ok, separate out all of the legal issues. Pilot has $4bil in debt and 1/4 of it was basically to buy the Browns? Ugh.

    Really, the timeline with WSJ demonstrates w/ the Moody’s ratings seems to indicate that Pilot-FlyingJ was growing too fast as it was (let alone try to withstand something like this FBI-raid). Sounds like it’s going to be a tough time all around for the Haslams. I hope it doesn’t affect our team (though that seems unlikely to some extent).

  • Harv 21

    re defending, agree 100%. The element of “want to” is intrinsic to becoming a competent defender – you can see that on film, and that’s something you can’t assume can be instilled for the first time at the NBA level. Noel clearly relishes defending – my prob is (morphs from Harv 21 to Herve Villechaize and points): “The Frame! The Frame!”

  • saggy

    And, i assume, you’re saying Noels is no Mr. Roarke.

  • mgbode

    it’s a risky proposition higher in the draft to do so. you are trusting that this high pick will come over at some point (not always the case), that you’ll be able to afford the buyout (harder w/ 1st round rules), and that the player will be getting proper development in Europe (really tough as they tend to play veterans more, play a different style game, and have no long-term obligation to a player that you just drafted).

    late 1st round / early 2nd round the risk of missing is much less. that’s why you see guys like Splitter drafted there.

    Giannis will be an interesting case-study on this one though. By all accounts, he is not ready to play in the NBA (too young, too raw). But, he has incredible measurables and could be an absolute steal (or bust).

  • humboldt

    All of this does not portend well for the Haslams and our beloved Brownies.

    I was also bothered (though somewhat entertained) by their evangelizing life lessons derived from the legendary Tennessee football coach. The quotes reminded me of Patches O’Houlihan in Dodgeball: “The 5 rules of dodgeball: Dodge, dip, duck, dive, and….dodge”.

  • mgbode

    I like the Nebraska “blackshirt” look just because they have called their defense that for years.

    Now, can the NCAA get it’s head out of it’s butt and allow UCLA to wear their powder blues for that game? A black-n-blue game would look very cool.

    I still don’t understand why the NCAA insists one team HAS to be in white. The USC v. UCLA red/blue game is visually one of the better looks out there. I wish Ohio State/Michigan did the same.

    Other color combo’s of rivals that would look great on the field together:
    Oregon State (orange) v. Oregon (green)
    Georgia (black) v. GaTech (gold)
    A&M (maroon) v. Texas (burnt orange)

  • Harv 21

    I think one factor in using second rounders is the money needed to bring them back if they’re doing well in Europe, where salaries (and lifestyle) is quite nice and the player has some leverage. If they look dominant, they may demand a lot to come over right away, more than the team has set aside. But generally I agree, this is where you want to take someone who looks like he can ball. Just NOT a freaky jumping bean whose fighting the urge to head the ball into a vertical net (see Eyenga, Christian).

  • mgbode

    yes, I always feel much better when the player has some international playing experience as it helps us see that they can play (like Rubio, Ginobli, Gasol’s, Calderon, Andy, etc. did before they were drafted).

    note: http://www.sportando.net/eng/europe/spain/57899/asefa-estudiantes-extends-lucas-nogueira-till-2015.html

    Lucas Nogueira extends contract through June ’15. So, he’s likely not in the NBA for the next 2 seasons (otherwise, why would he extend right now?). Wonder if it affects his draft stock or if teams were expecting it.

  • Vindictive_Pat

    The “want to” is what I love so much about Steven Adams. That guy just flies around the court, even though you can tell that he hasn’t had much basketball training in his youth. He gets a lot of comparisons to Meyers Leonard, but the difference to me is the “want to” on the defensive end and in rebounding. Leonard was always too hesitant there… like he doesn’t realize how big his body is. If the Cavs ended up doing something like Oladipo, trade up to grab Steven Adams, trade for Paul Pierce or Shawn Marion (or get Matt Barnes in FA), I would be a pretty happy camper.

  • saggy

    By the way – the Lakers news on D Howard (likely) not returning bodes well for the Cavs. Dallas will be in full-court press by this afternoon.

  • Harv 21

    the manic “want to” is the reason for my Oladipo man-crush. When Andy is out again for his annual 50 games or traded, this guy can be the team’s soul. And if Andy’s on the court with him it would be a Mike Brown bee hive.

  • BenRM

    Wasn’t it Noel’s first college game ever?

  • mgbode

    indeed it was.

  • blooshG

    If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge an indictment.

  • BenRM

    The it’s tough to use “Len dominated Noel” as any sort of argument in favor of Len, isn’t it?

  • Harv 21

    yes, it was

  • mgbode

    to some extent. the issue is that Noel didn’t see that many really big guys. Len happened to be one of them and he did to Noel what many fear NBA centers will. He just used the fact that he’s bigger/stronger against him. Yes, the ‘first game’ factor has to be taken into account, but the matchup shouldn’t be ignored either.

  • Harv 21

    and that is big, totally agree. But when I saw Noel video it looked like anyone/everyone of standard college center weight was pushing him around in the post. I keep seeing Ben Wallace in his game and lack of offense, but while Ben did not have this guy’s speed and leaping he had wide shoulders and real strength to bang with anyone in the paint. If Noel can’t do that, he’s a defensive specialist looking to leap and disrupt from angles, or hope for a point-blank block without fouling. Much tougher in the NBA.

  • BenRM

    While I certainly don’t think that Noel will ever reach 250 lbs., I think it’s pretty reasonable to believe he could get into the 230’s.

    And while he’ll still be smaller than many in the 230’s, I don’t think his size will be an issue at that point because he has the athleticism to make up for it.

    EDIT: FWIW, Bosh, Noah, and Chandler all weigh less than 240 lbs.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    This is why when Randy MIA Lerner was owner I always hesitated to say, “It can’t get worse!” Really I just think the NFL hates Cleveland.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Lets hope so c’mon Mark Cuban!

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    It’s not about the LBs it’s about the frame, bulk, muscle. Chandler took awhile to grow into his manliness remember what he looked like as a rookie? Bosh would be a nice comparison for Noel in the future although Noel is much more athletic. Noah doesn’t fit in these comparisons.

  • bode here: The Other Investigation.

    had all this data about haslams debt before the browns purchase, after the browns purchase, and the moody’s investigating info for you back in april.
    no prob, happy to help.

  • BenRM

    why doesn’t Noah?

  • Natedawg86

    NE jerseys not too bad. At least the jersey won’t show the blood when tOSU beats up on them

  • mgbode

    this is what I get for not checking out your site often enough. thanks.

    I did read the ones you had before/after the purchase, but without knowing what he would do in the offseason (and now the scandal), it was hard to know if it would truly affect. Also, Moody’s, at the time, was still signalling a stable outlook. Sadly, things seem to be going in a bad direction.

  • Natedawg86

    Can Noel (or will he be able to) stick the jumper like Bosh?

  • not a biggie. although i admit to being both proud and horrified that i was -i think- the only writer to look into what a moody’s investigation meant and just how much debt was at risk of having its Probability of Default Rating lowered for the second time since 2011.

    hoyer articles get the page hits, ya dig?

  • Natedawg86

    Florida vs Georgia – Blue vs Red

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    If I remember back to Noah’s Florida days he was always well proportioned unlike Noel who is far more slender.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    My magic eight ball says no.

  • Steve

    A lot of the issues with Robinson has to do with his size though. He’s a tweener, who can’t guard either 3s or 4s, which means he can’t stay on the court. Maybe some consistent minutes could help his offensive game, but he certainly doesn’t deserve them.

    I think this is quite different from Noel though. He’s got the height for his position, and should be expected to contribute enough on the defensive end that you can wait and see on how the offense develops.

    In regards to getting points from teammates, its a two way street. Defenses have to respect the athleticism. Not every big man can rack up an easy double digit point night on putbacks and rolls to the basket. While it looks like the PG is doing most of the work, offenses are designed around having a guy like Noel moving toward the basket, and taking advantage of his athleticism. And this is a huge reason why you take Noel over Len – wait until you see those holes in the defense when he gets to run those pick and rolls with Irving.

  • BenRM

    I don’t disagree – but it is worth noting that Noah was much older than Noel when he entered the draft.

  • mgbode

    I think Ryan Miller articles get more page hits than in depth financial discussions.

    Honestly, I trusted the NFL to have done their due diligence on Haslam and his financial standing. They, unlike the NBA/MLB, had such a good history in this regard. Figures that we have to be the exception (seemingly).

  • mgbode

    Duke v. UNC – Navy v. Baby

  • the due diligence -does- seem to be: you got $700M and the rooneys vouch for you? ok done.

    i mean: moody’s did a july 2012 report (right when the browns transaction happened) that showed PFJ’s debt just bumped up by 1.1B and there a ‘Loan C’ for $343M which is just about what he still owes lerner.

    i found this out for free and found it strange. ie, it sure looks like the entire browns purchase is a capitalized against PFJ… ie, not haslam personally.

  • Petefranklin

    Kanick deserves so many props for his intuition that they cant be listed. If Woodward and Bernstein were browns fans one would dig himself up from the grave and the other would put his Marlboro down to congratulate JK for a job well done.

  • Petefranklin

    Why couldn’t Jimmy have won the team in a poker game? Rooney was a broke dick asshole also too. I guess I could cut down on my indulgences if I knew there was a 10 year run of championship football after 40 years of patheticness, just so I could live to see it.Hell, were almost halfway there(18). I may go to public square in a wheelchair with an oxygen tank, but that doesn’t mean I wont throw it(either one) at Jimmy for making me wait so freaking long to celebrate. I guess that would be if I could get out of jail in New Orleans after attempting to tear down some goalposts after a once in a 4 generation win.