If I’m Chris Grant, my first call is to the Dallas Mavericks
May 22, 2013The Diff: Historical finishes for 26-18 MLB teams
May 22, 2013Yesterday, as WFNY’s Scott Sargent was announcing his trial separation with the NBA Draft Lottery, I found myself nodding along in agreement as I consumed every word of it. Scott is exactly right. The Draft Lottery is the worst. It was kind of fun the first couple years, dreaming of top picks and thinking about potential. In previous years I’ve spent countless hours playing the lottery machine, reading about the top 2 or 3 prospects, and dreaming of what winning the top spot would mean for the team.
But the more time you spend wallowing in the murkiness of luck, lethargy, and the tantalizing siren song of the NBA Draft Lottery, the more you realize it’s not a scene you really want to be a part of. As much as I love seeing Nick Gilbert proudly represent the city of Cleveland and the Cavaliers franchise, I’d be perfectly content if I don’t see him on TV again until it’s on a podium holding a trophy.
And thus, shortly after Nick Gilbert told the national audience that he, too, was tired of being there, the Cavaliers won the #1 pick in the draft. And in doing so, the Cavaliers opened the door to a world of options and opportunities. The team may or may not be in the lottery again next year, but you have to believe that at worst Nick Gilbert will be sitting in the top row instead of his usual front-left spot on the stage.
That’s the fun part of this. Thinking about all the options and potential for roster improvement is exciting. But the reality is, with so many options in front of him, choosing the right move is an enormous responsibility for GM Chris Grant.
Of course, there’s also a darker reality to this situation. The truth is, this is the worst draft to have the #1 pick since 2006. There’s no real, clear-cut choice at #1. The decision of who to pick at #1 will require weighing factors such as team need, injuries, immediate impact, long-term upside, etc. In most drafts, there’s an easy choice at #1. This year, it feels a little like picking the lesser of two evils.
The good news for Cavs fans is that Chris Grant has done this before. It’s easy to forget already, but just 2 years ago, Kyrie Irving wasn’t the obvious #1 pick that everyone makes him out to be today. There was a lot of debate back then about whether taking Derrick Williams first and someone like Brandon Knight 4th wasn’t the better route for the Cavaliers. Thankfully Grant and Company made the right move then, and the hope is that they make the right move now.
But what is the right move for the Cavaliers? That’s a tricky question. In some ways, winning this lottery almost feels like a cruel joke, because the best fit for the Cavaliers right now, at this moment in time, is probably Otto Porter. Porter, of course, would be considered a reach at #1. But Porter fits the biggest immediate need. As a SF, he is a solid two-way player who can help space the floor a bit on offense while buying in to Mike Brown’s defensive scheme. But does Porter have the highest long-term upside? Probably not.
The player with the most potential and brightest future might be Ben McLemore. But McLemore isn’t a need for this team right now. Drafting a SG in the top 4 of the draft in back to back seasons is a bitter pill to swallow, even if McLemore is the best player available and the smartest pick1.
The consensus #1 prospect, however, seems to be Nerlens Noel. With Anderson Varejao getting older and constantly being considered in trade rumors, selecting the center of the future is appealing. And Noel’s raw defensive ability is mesmerizing. But his wire-thin frame is an enormous concern. I’m uncomfortable with the amount of footage I’ve seen of Noel being abused in the post by NBA prospects like Mason Plumlee and Alex Len. Preying on mediocre collegiate talent by using your superior athleticism is one thing, but banging in the post with the NBA’s elite centers when you weigh 206 pounds is a completely different beast. And then there’s also Noel’s surprisingly abysmal offensive skillset. Noel may be most observers’ favorite for the top pick in this theoretically weak draft, but that doesn’t make him a lock to be a long term impact player for the Cavaliers.
Of course, all of this is assuming the Cavaliers use this pick. One of the options the Cavaliers have is to trade this pick (and/or other picks/players). In my opinion, if the Cavaliers had their way, they would trade this pick. I think the front office would absolutely love to bundle picks and/or players to acquire an impact player, preferably a young-ish player with star potential. If we take Dan Gilbert at face value, then making the playoffs is the worst-case scenario goal for next year. Drafting Noel or McLemore doesn’t necessarily improve the odds of that happening this season. But trading for an established player does.
Of course, every team in the NBA realizes this is a weak draft at #1. Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports recently quoted an NBA GM as saying nobody is worthy of the #1 pick this year. Another GM told Goodman that he wasn’t sure he wanted the top pick. If this line of thinking is pervasive throughout the NBA, then the Cavaliers may have a tough time trading out of the spot.
And that’s where things will get interesting. If Otto Porter really is the player the Cavaliers liked going into the lottery, will Chris Grant pull the trigger on a “reach” at #1 to take a player he might like more? Grant has shown in the past two drafts that he’s confident in his scouting staff and they will take the player that they like, not the player the draft experts think he should take. It served them well in drafting Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters, it might serve them well in drafting Otto Porter.
Of course, that philosophy also opens the door to Ben McLemore. Everyone assumes there’s no way the Cavaliers will take him because they took Dion Waiters last year. But Chris Grant took Tristan Thompson when they already had Anderson Varejao. I believe there’s a real chance McLemore is the player the Cavaliers end up taking, using Waiters as high-impact 6th man who can also run the offense when Kyrie Irving is resting. I think if Grant feels McLemore is the best player, he’ll be comfortable with taking him and letting Mike Brown figure out how to make the rotations work.
Speaking of Mike Brown, though, I have to believe that Coach Brown will be begging Chris Grant to take Nerlens Noel. The prospect of having that kind of defensive presence anchoring his system has to have Brown salivating. And ideally, Zydrunas Ilgauskas could be around to help Noel develop some of his offensive game. Drafting Noel is probably the safest move and perhaps the move that makes the most sense overall when you factor in all considerations.
The bottom line is, this isn’t likely to be an easy decision for the Cavaliers. The team has a lot of options and could take this draft in at least 6-7 different directions, depending on trades and valuations. But at the end of the day, this is a great “problem” to have. The Cavaliers alone get to dictate how they want this to play out. They don’t have to see what other teams do in the draft, they don’t have to cross their fingers that their guy is there when they pick. The decision is the Cavs’ and theirs alone. And if they make the right moves with these assets, it will hopefully be a little while before the Cavaliers have to make this kind of decision again. And that’s really the only outcome that matters.
______________
Image Source: Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
- I’m not saying he definitely is the best player, just that if Chris Grant feels that he is, then McLemore has to be considered here [↩]
52 Comments
You are preaching to the choir on this one Andrew absolutely NAILED IT!
There are way too many people upset at the prospect of the Cavs getting to pick their favorite player in this draft, or even getting Noel. The Cavs are going to get a great player, even if you dont happen to like hyper athletic defensive anchors
I would like to kick all these people in the shins for actually complaining about getting the #1 pick. Would they seriously rather be #5? cmon cleveland – we get whomever we want at #1. It’s a good thing!
I think the one thing Chris Grant has shown is that he is going to take the player he believes is the best player to pick regardless of anyone’s opinions. And, that is a good quality to have as a GM.
hyper athletic defensive helper, not anchor.
he’s a help defender in the NBA. an anchor needs to be able to hold the ship in place, which Noel won’t be able to do for a few years while he adds on weight/strength (if ever). people want to compare him to Dwight, but Howard was much, much further along in strength than Noel is right now.
Howard looked like him in junior high school, no comparison agreed.
An even better quality is to win. Pressure will be on for Grant to hit another homerun because this organization could use it especially after the hasty rehiring they did a few weeks ago.
absolutely. Whether he’s employed next year or not, he does it his way. Which makes his position stronger – other teams will have no idea who he wants. Last year he took Waiters without a personal interview or work out.
Really torn about Noel. That height/wingspan/explosiveness combo can create the game-changing matchup nightmare, but the thin frame/bad hands can create the nightmare the other way. I re-watched some footage wanting to see if he had a feel for passing out of the post – pretty valuable when you share a floor with Kyrie, Waiters and a cutting Tristan – but don’t see that feel or skill. He could be a skinny albatross with lots of blocks who lets mediocre centers exceed their scoring average every night.
On the other hand, he JUST turned 19, and it’s idiotic to assume a teenager this athletic is close to being finished developing anything except good hands.
Maybe I’d feel better if I knew he had a crazy work ethic and that the Cavs
were prepared to hire an established big man coach to work with him long-term.
And if a shooting coach would break him down and start from scratch, revamping what all those AAU shortcuts to fundamentals.
I love Otto Porter, including how his instincts and passing would mesh with
the guards. Noel is a longer-term project, which I guess is ok when your head
coach is starting the first year of his contract. But somehow he seems more of
a guilty pleasure, and if Brown isn’t inventive enough on the offensive end to
exploit his strengths.
McLemore – man, seems impossible to be the pick. Redundant with Waiters, and how on earth do you manage to get thrown out of Oak Hill Academy, an “institution” that exists for freak jocks who can’t cut … high school? Which means he’s probably our pick.
Howard weighed 240 at the combine. Noel played at 225 before his injury, which is about what Ibaka weighed coming into the draft. So yes, Noel doesn’t quite match the most athletic freak in the league, but he’s close enough in my eyes, and there is no doubt in my mind that a 19 year old with that frame will add weight/strength.
Hey Andrew, is taking Noel with a shredded ACL really the safest move here? We’re beginning to get conditioned to seeing guys like Adrian Peterson and (probably) RG3 make quick recoveries. But for every one of those, there’s a few Derrick Roses who can’t get seem to build confidence in their surgically repaired knee and may never be the same.
The Cavs happen to have a former big man who relied on a lot of smarts and guile, and can teach the young man how to adapt his game to the NBA, and happened to have a nice stroke himself. I’m excited to see what Z can do for Noel.
Noel’s frame – narrow-looking shoulders compared to Howard or Tristan at that age – are what make me think he will not be able to add a ton of weight and retain that explosiveness. But to me he looks faster and a more explosive leaper than even Howard, and that gets you a ton of back door cuts, alley oops and put-back dunks. I just wonder if Brown can create an offense that accentuates this and avoids post-up moves that expose his physical weakness and fumbling hands.
No, Z said he doesn’t want to coach much, he says he wants to scout, and he hasn’t worked with Tristan a ton. Noel needs intensive care, a full-timer, especially as a #1 pick investment.
“Letting Mike Brown figure out how to make the rotations work.”
Another reason why we can’t have nice things.
And I’m going to keep banging the same drum as I did for Drummond last year. Do not let a couple ball hogging college guards affect your view of the kid’s offensive game. Noel being able to work with a PG like Irving, not just getting him good looks at the rim, but Irving’s ability to hit perimeter shots will make it easier for Noel to work inside, will make his game look so much better than it did at Kentucky.
Noel only had 51% of hit shots at the rim come off assists, compared to say 63% for Len. Getting your big man the ball at the hoop is not taught well enough at the AAU, or even college, level.
agree. We win the lottery and immediately fans default to angsty. It is a good thing indeed.
Z said he’ll probably scout but he’s “open to anything”. And he already worked with Tristan about the latter getting his shot blocked so frequently. Maybe the plan was to scout, but I see no reason why they wouldn’t call him in to have him work with Noel.
Based on JJ Hickson I’d say NO!
Even if he was fired he knows he always has a chance to be rehired anyways!
Z was always an outside orientated player being European and all last time I checked Noel was the polar opposite.
I like Porter as well. That’s really the guy I was hoping the Cavaliers would get. Now, if they make this pick at #1, I think they’ll probably take Noel, which I’m ok with. But Porter would make a more immediate impact.
By all accounts, Noel is ahead of schedule and doing great in rehab. The Cavaliers will do their due diligence and get to the bottom of his injury situation. If the ACL is an issue, they won’t take him. But if it’s not, then yeah, he’s probably the safest pick.
This is sort of where I am today. Drummond had pages of “concerns” associated with him. And that has turned out pretty well.
As far as Noel goes, I think coaching will end up mattering more than the “concerns” do. It was part of the reason I was okay if Scott stayed; b/c the dude can coach guards.
Mike Brown doesn’t know offense from egg salad, but I am pretty confident he can turn Noel into a defensive beast.
He’s a project who will miss half a season due to injury so it’ll be interesting to see if a team continually talking about the playoffs does in fact select him. Cleveland of course. For me the ?s around Noel go beyond the injury. Besides his physical immaturity the injury cost him his entire collegiate career a career that I feel needed at least one more year. So not only is the kid injured but he’s raw physically and has a game underdeveloped. If you like to watch Bismack Biyombo or a DeAndre Jordan then this is your guy.
Z worked the glass skillfully, and was a smart defender in the paint. I’ll gladly have him pass along anything he knows about the game to Noel.
Anyone else think McLemore could defend small forwards since oladipo can, and same height and McLemore might be even more athletic, so Mike Brown could start 3 guards, I also wouldn’t rule out trading 19th pick to the bulls for Luol Deng as it has been known that they are interested in acquiring him
McLemore is a more offensive orientated player despite not being able to really show it all that much in college. Oladipo is a defensive first player who will need to develop his offensive game. Nothing says Oladipo won’t or can’t but McLemore is the better player right now. As far as three guards go Cleveland is going to need another guard anyways it just depends whether or not Grant would want to draft another and not have him as a starter. Personally I’d rather see Irving teamed with McLemore then Waiters. Waiters could come off the bench. I’d prefer to address SF or even another big man myself.
Should we be looking for an immediate impact though? I know the Gilberts were adamant about this being the last time in the lottery, but they need to build a roster than can truly contend for a championship at some point, and not just look respectable next year. Though maybe ticket sales/tv ratings are dictating otherwise.
Yes and no. I think the franchise needs some serious forward momentum. Taking a guy who can’t even play until Christmas time really stunts any growth. But you’re right that teams, in general, are usually better off thinking long-term.
By his second contract Noel will be at his best!
the GM’s job is to make the best decisions short-term and long-term and mold them together. the coaches job is to take those pieces and win. yes, wins and losses reflect on both, but they reflect on the coach first.
Noel weighs 206lbs right now. So, he has to work to get back to his 225lbs, then, once his ACL is okay (which is longer than when he can come back), he can try to put on weight/strength to go above it.
During that time, Dwight was already getting bigger/stronger. It’s a HUGE, HUGE difference. 34lbs is not close and he doesn’t have that frame (as Harv indicates as well). Just look at Dwight’s shoulders and you can tell he has the frame to support all that muscle.
Drummond’s main concerns were his work ethic and intensity on the court. He had the frame and the touch. All the measurables in the world.
Noel has no concerns about his work ethic and he has a non-stop motor on the court. He doesn’t have Drummond’s measurables and if Andre had Noel’s reputation, then he would have gone 1st or 2nd overall last year.
while Oladipo “can” defend SF’s, I’m not sure you want him doing that all the time.
I guess I wasn’t trying to make a direct comparison, just a situation one. Although, I suppose there’s a bigger difference in “perhaps not having the physical tools” and “perhaps not having the mental tools.”
The more I think about it, the more I want them to get Mclemore. For comparisons sake, I like the combo of Irving/ McLemore more than Irving/Waiters. The former is comparable to Steph Curry and Thompson (with Mclemore having way more athleticism and about the same handle) leaving Waiters in the Jack role, I would be very happy with that. They all get over 30 min and I think Dion would like that role (after an adjustmet) since he can control the offense more than if starting, and stil play off the ball at times with Kyrie and Mclemore on the floor in crunch time.
I’ve never said anything even suggesting that the ACL injury wasn’t a big concern. Not just missing games, but missing key development time, including, as you mention, an inability to put on size.
But let’s not pretend that the guy plays at 206. I see no reason to believe he won’t be back at 225 by the time the knee is ready.
A big difference is Klay Thompson is 6’7, McLemore is 6’3. Thompson, and Barnes, can cover perimeter guys that Curry wouldn’t be able to, I’m not sure McLemore is going to be a plus defensive player.
who’s pretending? I’m just laying out the tough road ahead of him.
Unfortunately you can’t have both. But the only reason I see looking for the immediate impact would be because there is too much red on the books.
And I’m just laying out that the 206 number should not be so harped upon. Professional athletes have proven they can put the weight back on after injuries, especially at such a young age.
It all depends on what the Cavaliers are going for. They have infinitely more information than we do about the players and about their inner rebuilding plans.
JJ was not weak. He was unwilling and kind of dim (with bad hands to boot).
Still, this kid might be great in his own way. That height with that wingspan, those very fast hands, and his clear love of defending might make him a player different than all these players we’re comparing him to. Shawn Bradley had zero physical ability, few basketball skills, just height and length, and he still messed up a lot of half court offenses. Noel is a fabulous athlete whose skills will certainly develop, not a lerpy stiff. He may be well worth grabbing #1, despite the inability to body up a 260 pounder eight feet from the hole, if he’ll block the shot or scare the guy into a miss anyway.
I’m not a homer in this regard. Z isn’t a coach, he’s a former player who’s willing to work with current players sometimes, like how Lofton gives stealing tips to base runners in spring training. No one said Z is a guy who knows how to teach, which is a different skillset from being a player. If you run the org you make development of the overall #1 pick a full time job for a proven coach with a track record. You don’t leave it to amateurs because, you know, cool, he was a Cav and he’s sometimes in the building
yes, one you can work on and change. the other you are sort of stuck. that was my main point there.
and, though I am harping on Noel, I do see a future for him in the league. put him with a guy like M.Gasol, Chandler, etc. and he could be an absolute terror on the weakside. He can guard all the stretch-4’s and then provide help defense in the paint.
To your point Mclemore is listed at 6’4.57 but of course 6’7 is still the advantage. and it appears that he has the tools to be a plus defender especially with Brown as the head coach again. And for a few games in the playoffs Barnes played the 4 in late minutes after Lee went out and wasn’t on perimeter defenders. Worked out decently in those games with thompson jack and curry as well. I just don’t think they should pass on a player based on team needs. Draft best talent… Noel isn’t even close in my opinon. Poor hands (can’t learn that skill), doesn’t even shoe a decent feel for the game on offense like Davis did last year, and let’s not forget Boobie Gibson weighs more than him.. .by a alot
Just trade pick(s) for Love or Aldridge or even Milsap..we would be better instantly
Shawn Bradley? He was more than a half a foot taller than Noel. You could be a dead stiff and alter offenses at that height/wingspan. I’m not buying that part of the comment.
Tayshaun Prince looks like he is going to fall apart every time he makes contact. I know he isn’t exactly banging with bigs but he has a strong frame. Maybe Noel does, too?
good point about Brown and defense. Noel will have expert tutelage.
I know i played for a defensively challenged coach once, and he couldn’t teach me or get me to play defense. Or maybe i just didnt want to. hmmm…