Indians exemplifying “next man up” thus far
May 20, 2013NFL News: Brian Hoyer contract details surface
May 20, 2013This week in the film room, I’m going to look at a prospect who some thought was a candidate for the top pick before the season started. Shabazz Muhammad had a bit of a disappointing season, along with his UCLA Bruin squad.
Still, Muhammad showed that he is a dynamite scorer who will pack some instant offensive punch for whoever selects him next month.
First, as usual, let’s take a look at what others are saying around the web.
NBADraft.net:
“Fierce competitor with a scorers mentality … Displays a killer instinct missing from many other prospect’s games … Uses screens to create catch-and-shoot opportunities well … Quick lefty release, solid mechanices with range out to three point territory … Can use his body to create space and get shots off near the basket … Length (6-11 + wingspan) helps him get his shot off and create post-up opportunities against smaller wings … Not afraid of contact and has the ability to get to the line at a high rate. Has trouble creating his own shot off of the dribble, shooting percentage plummets when he puts the ball on the floor … Not a fluid athlete.”
DraftExpress.com:
“Muhammad’s style of play is highly unconventional, as he rarely scores in isolation or pick and roll settings in the half-court, seeing just 6% of his offense in these situations. Instead, he gets most of his points leaking out in transition, moving off the ball, as a spot-up shooter, posting up relentlessly, crashing the offensive glass, and coming off short curls in the mid-range area where he’s only forced to put the ball on the floor once or twice to get all the way to the basket. He gets to the free throw line nearly seven times per-40, which is a testament to his aggressiveness and scoring instincts more than anything, as well as his ability to overpower opposing players.”
Goodman/CBSSports:
“Was regarded as a possible No. 1 overall pick entering the season, but there are questions. He’s been able to physically overpower guys in high school and in college, but that won’t work in the NBA. He’ll still be a solid pro due to his work ethic, but he needs to improve his lateral quickness and ability to put the ball on the floor.”
Hoopshype:
Shabazz had a rough ending to the season with the report coming out that he’s actually 20 instead of 19 as his father had purported. He also struggled in UCLA’s tourney loss to Minnesota shooting 6-for-18. But he’s still one of the most talented prospects in this year’s draft with a killer instinct and high-level scoring ability. He has turned living with Tourette Syndrome into a positive as he plays with a chip on his shoulder exerting a high level of intensity at all times. Detractors point to his less than 1 assist per game, labeling him one dimensional and even a “ball hog”, but in a draft devoid of talent, don’t expect him to fall very far. His character and abilities on the court could ultimately be undervalued by the time the draft takes place.
Chad Ford/ESPN:
“A great athlete with NBA strength, Muhammad can score from anywhere. Although he appears to be more of a one-dimensional player, he plays hard on every possession. Muhammad’s not an elite defender or a great rebounder and doesn’t really get others involved, but he’s a guy who can get you 20 points a night.”
Videos:
Stats:
17.9 PTS, 5.2 RBS, 0.8 AST, 0.7 STL, 1.6 TO, 44.3% FG, 37.7% 3PT, 71.1% FT
Past film rooms:
Alex Len
Nerlens Noel
Alright, enough with the formalities. Let’s dive into the film. I actually studied two of Shabazz’s games this past season, at Arizona and the Minnesota tournament game, but I’m only going to use the Arizona game as it gave me a good snapshot of everything I needed.
We begin with a look at Shabazz’s greatest strength, scoring the basketball. We see one-dimensional scorers all throughout the league, from the J.R. Smiths to the Jamal Crawfords to the Marcus Thorntons. Shabazz Muhammad, in my opinion, is going to be one of those players that scores and does little else. Here, we see Muhammad begin on the left side in the low post (#15 in blue).
This is a commonly used set by UCLA (at least in this game). The ball gets reversed out top, and Muhammad uses a screen to the run the baseline and curl around into the paint.
Shabazz looks a tad small for a small forward (measured 6’6 1/4″ at the combine), but he plays big inside (6’11” wingspan) with an ability to post up strong, finish inside, and grab the occasional offensive board. He uses his left as he curls toward the middle.
Shabazz lets the left-handed half hook fly and buries it from 13 feet. Muhammad is left-handed.
Next, we’ll see Muhammad running the baseline again. Once more, he starts on the left side, cutting to the right side. This of course allows him to make effective use of his left hand dribble. You’ll rarely see Muhammad attack from the left side with his right hand, unless it’s in transition.
One of Shabazz’s greatest attributes is his skill with finding an opening and getting open when many other players can’t or won’t.
This time, instead of curling, Muhammad continues his flash all the way out to the right wing. Notice the Wildcat defender overplaying the wing pass. That’s respect for Shabazz’s three-point shooting ability.
Eventually, however, after the pass out top is denied, Muhammad goes back into the post.
Muhammad is very comfortable with backing players down in the post. He uses his body well down there, and he rarely turns the ball over, even with the attention of the opposing team’s best defender and usually another set of eyes.
As mentioned, the second Arizona defender moves over to help prevent Muhammad from going middle. Shabazz uses a powerful stride with his right leg to plant to set up his next move.
Instead of turning the corner to drive to the goal, Shabazz uses a turnaround fadeaway from about 10 feet and drills it. There are not that many players in the association that are effective shooting shots like that. If he can carry that with him to the next level, he will always be able to get shots off without fear of being rejected.
Another facet of Muhammad’s game that plays a big role is his work in the open court. Muhammad is quick in space and either finishes the hoop or gets to the line. Here, the Bruins get a turnover and Shabazz is running along the left side of the floor at the top of the shot.
Muhammad catches and immediately looks to shake his man on a drive to the hoop. His mid-range game demands that the defender not give him space.
Here, we see a step through from as he cuts across the face of his defender on a line to the hoop.
Shabazz finishes off balance with his left with two in the vicinity. After watching 6-8 games of Muhammad’s this year, I can say that the most electrifying aspect of his game is what he can do inside and outside on the break.
Muhammad’s defensive tendency is to hang far too close to his man. In Mike Brown’s defense, he would have a lot to learn (as do most of the Cavaliers, in truth) with respect to helping his teammates on dribble penetration and in the post. Here’s one scenario where Shabazz went Alonzo Gee and jumped the passing lane out top.
Muhammad is a blur, throwing the ball out in front of him as he lunges for it on the steal. This starts a 1-on-1 sprint to the goal.
Shabazz does get caught as he gathers to go up, and he goes to the foul line after missing this layup with contact. Muhammad goes to the line nearly six times per game, though he converted just 71% of his attempts.
I mentioned Shabazz’s spot-up three point game, and here is an example. We see the drive and kick by the UCLA point to Muhammad, who has all day to setup in the corner here.
Muhammad’s shot is one that does not have that many moving parts. He can get it off quickly, and there’s not an ounce of shyness about chucking it up.
Muhammad has all day in this instance, but he’s also comfortable shooting with a hand in his face and confident enough to knock it down. Muhammad connected on nearly 38% of his three pointers and made just over one per contest.
One defensive possession where Shabazz got caught not giving enough effort is highlighted below. Shot goes up from the right wing, and Muhammad fails to get in front of his man (#44 in white, Solomon Hill).
Making matters worse, it’s a long rebound, and somehow Hill goes out and grabs it.
Hill then squares up Muhammad before taking him to the rack, splitting two UCLA defenders and laying it in with ease.
Shabazz doesn’t get squared up to take a charge or at least provide resistance. Right on through, Mr. Hill!
In short, the scoring ability that Shabazz has is great (14 of 32 games, he had 20+ points and just 1 game with out double digit scoring numbers). He can score in space, he can create his own shot, he can make you pay from beyond the arc, and he has some very unique moves that I believe will translate at the next level. He’s probably going to go somewhere in the Top 10, and I don’t think that team will be disappointed with him. He won’t be a superstar, but I could see him averaging 18 points per game in the NBA at some point.
Now, notice what I didn’t focus on a whole lot here. Shabazz may be able to create looks for himself, but he doesn’t look for others enough (5.8% assist percentage). His assist numbers are painfully low for a perimeter player. His defense has issues both due to size/frame/height and bad or lazy habits. Shabazz can get tough on the offensive glass (9.9% offensive rebounding percentage, top 400 in the nation) and grab the occasional offensive board, but he’s far from a good defensive rebounder. There are far too many 20 points, 3 rebound, 1 assist type games on his game log resume.
If the Cavs wound up at five or six after Tuesday’s lottery, Shabazz could be the choice. It certainly fills a need at small forward. However, I consider that far less likely than I did a few months ago. Remember, he’s already 20, and he’ll be 21 within two weeks of the season starting. His ceiling has got to be a little bit lower than these 19 and 20 year olds. I’m also not crazy about some of his body language, and I wonder if he can accept being the second or third guy on a team (he took nearly 31% of the team’s shots when he was on the floor this year) that is going to have Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters who need the basketball as well. Then again, given the way he scores is different from Kyrie and Dion (isos and pick and rolls versus curls and spot-ups), maybe they could coexist offensively with success. The talk of late, however, is that Shabazz could be in a freefall in this draft.
Shabazz Muhammad really struggling so far. Shots not falling and couldn't create much in the one on ones. Did compete defensively, though.
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) May 16, 2013
Until next time, the film room is closed!
(Photo: Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
14 Comments
Corey Maggette Part 2. Probably getting picked on more than he should though.
That being said he is not a fit here, and watching him play, he is more of a 2 than 3. For 2’s I would put him still behind Mclemore and Oladipo. Hardaway Jr. (at 19) might actually be a more complete player too.
Naw, he’s more skilled than Maggette was coming out college and not quite as athletic. He’s gonna be an under-sized 3 not a 2.
Corey Maggette as far as a black hole…
he’s more like Rip Hamilton’s offensive game in the halfcourt with range out to the 3pt line and a Gerald Wallace/MKG in the open-court. All with the size to play SF.
Note: one of the arguments I have had is about his size; he has the length of an average SF in the NBA and the weight/strength as well. he’ll be a SF..
his issues are his maturity (questioned by some – lauded by others — and his dad did him no favors here), defensive intensity (well, lack of it), and ability to go to his right with the ball (left side dominated).
44% from the floor, 53% TS% are not that impressive either. If he’s going to need a lot of shots to score, I’m not a fan in general, but especially not on this roster.
Ok, I watched more Shabazz that I probably should have over the season, but here is my assessment.
He is an absolute marvel as an off-the-ball movement player on offense (think about how many players you can say this about). He will work through screens and read defenses beautifully. When he gets the ball, he makes a move quick enough that he rarely was double-teamed (part of the reason he had low assist numbers – yes, he also does fall in love with his shot too much at times). He has a multitude of shots: hooks, spot-up, fadeaway, drop-step all in his repertoire and ready to dial up. in transition, he is LeBron-esque (not quite the speed).
Yes, it would be nice if he could work on his right handed movements, pass the ball more effectively, and he needs to learn when not to shoot. But, honestly, these are minor things on offense. His FT% wasn’t the best either, but he does have good form and his overall shooting suggests that it will rise.
So, let’s get to the other side of the ball.
On defense, he needs to learn to never let his heels hit the floor. If I was his next coach, I would make him do pushups anytime I caught him flat-footed, which would be often given his UCLA tape. The weird thing is he seems like he’s trying and just has no idea what to do? I’m sure Mike Brown is giving some calls into his “buddy” Howland to see what is really the case here. On defensive rebounding, he needs to learn to use what he does in the post on offense on defense to box out for those rebounds. He has perfect form on the other end, so he should be capable of doing it on defense. He just needs to actually do it.
Overall, in my opinion, he has more upside than anyone in this draft. McLemore has perfect shooting form but never seems like he wants to shoot and is constantly deferring. He’s the only other one that I’d consider to have close to the same ceiling. If Shabazz has the work ethic some indicate, then I have no doubt he’ll be a better player than Otto Porter, Oladipo, and likely McLemore on the wings. If not, then he will be the next Michael Beasely. That is the great question for NBA GM’s to try to decipher. I am merely hoping here that Mike Brown can get some inside info from Howland. I don’t know if they are actually close enough to share such info.
I stay away from saying one collegiate will be better then another absolutely no need just makes for problems later especially on a blog. That being said I liked Muhammad heading into this past season the most but I also saw flashes from Porter. Not sure one is any better then the other. Neither, IMO, really is a possible top three pick but this is the problem with this draft. Just like a year ago hardly much separation between possibly as many as ten guys.
those are Rip Hamilton-type numbers (if you are taking more mid-range shots, then the shooting % will usually be in that range). and, it if takes him 14 shots to score 18 points, then we are in good shape.
I’m not worried about putting my opinion out there. If it ends up being wrong, I’ll own up to it. For instance, I was wrong about Drummond.
I think last year there were 3 clear top guys on most people’s boards (Davis, MKG, Beal). After those 3 is where there were ~10 guys that probably could have gone in almost any order.
This year, there isn’t that top class of guys, but just as many (if not more) in the 2nd tier of guys who could go in almost any order.
I’ve got Hamilton at 57% in college while using a few more possessions a night. Closer than I expected, but still Hamilton was noticeably more efficient. Irving had a ludicrous 70% TS%, but that’s a small sample against zero conference foes.
And comparing NBA to NCAA stats doesn’t make sense to me, but I’ll listen to arguments otherwise.
I think Shabazz has serious potential with a more open game, especially considering he should have the range, but that inefficiency on the offensive end is a huge red flag.
I was speaking for myself having an opinion is what these discussions are all about I just try to stay away from saying one player is better then another because of all of the different factors. Perfect example is Harrison Barnes. I didn’t like him enough out of NC to warrant a #4 selection and was hoping either Beal or MKG would last. Well Barnes had a heckuva season but I don’t think he’d have had that season in Cleveland. GS ended up being a perfect place for him. Credit the Warriors and Mark Jackson.
I agree with the rest of what you say. It’s unfortunate that for the second season the draft class isn’t strong as far as one or two or three top notch guys. Instead it’s another draft of solid guys who need time to mature and develop into possibly something more.
Hamilton’s difference in college was almost entirely from his FT%. career: 42%FG, 38%3pt, 83% FT. I do think Shabazz will be a better FT shooter given his form there, so I’m cheating a little, but I also think he’ll get to the FT line more in the NBA (given his strength).
Very good points, Shamrock. I would say that Barnes had a heckuva POSTseason. Dion’s numbers were very favorable compared to him in the regular season.
Forgive me if you were just using Barnes as an example and didn’t want to bring up Dion. Certainly, Drummond and Lillard outperformed their expectations too.
Upside looks to me sort of like a poor man’s Adrian Dantley: slightly undersized strong dude with a voracious appetite to score, cocky and skilled enough to back down anyone and score from weird angles. But the offense slams shut whenever he gets his touch.
How long could/should Kyrie and Dion tolerate never seeing the ball again after passing to him? I could see him taken at 19 as the crazy bench scorer for the second unit, but wonder if he’d pout after being The Man since he was a wee tot. Also, that walk-away after his teammate’s winning shot – what WAS that if not petty jealousy? Just asking, don’t know the story.