General

While We’re Waiting… Come on Cavs!

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While We’re Waiting serves as the early morning gathering of WFNY-esque information for your viewing pleasure. Have something you think we should see? Send it to our tips email at tips@waitingfornextyear.com.

“The minimum salary floor for a team in 2013 – 2014 will be 90% of the salary cap, or approximately $55 million. With two new first-round contracts in 2013, Cleveland employs 9 players for $33 million in 2013 – 2014. They include Varejao, Irving, Tristan, Dion, A-Gee, Miles and Zeller. There is $22 million that must be spent. Even if they bring some combination of Gibson, Casspi, Leuer and Samuels back; the number likely sits above $15 million. So this is really a CBA-mandate as opposed to a prediction, but a significant trade or free agent acquisition will occur in the next ten months. As a side note, if Cleveland trades Varejao, up to $30 million of new salary would inhabit the 2013 – 2014 roster compared to the opening-night-2012 crew.” [Hetrick/Cavs the Blog]

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For you math fans- “As Moneyball has shown, sabermetrics and advanced statistics have become a big part in evaluating athletes, teams and matchups in all sports. So something new for this season is going to be a closer look at how those statistics are calculated, what exactly they mean, and just how our dear Cavs stack up against them.

I will be your guide throughout this process. In the real world, I am an engineer by training, and know a little bit about numbers and what to do with them. I’ve been both a Cavs and basketball fan for some time, and hope to use my skills and this column for the greater good. So let’s do some math.” [Nandoor/Stepien Rules]

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“The biggest disappointment of the Cavaliers’ season will likely be a combination of things. I know that’s a cheap answer, but I’ll sum it up by saying “the trade deadline.” Why will that be the biggest disappointment? Because there’s so much potential for the Cavs to make a splash and move some of their assets — and I don’t think it happens. Anderson Varejao could get traded, but I doubt they get much more than a mid-first round pick. They have all that cap room, Luke Walton’s expiring deal, and Dan Gilbert’s willingness to spend — and I’m afraid they don’t get much to show for it. Josh Smith in a contract year could be a target. Rudy Gay could finally get traded. Danny Granger may be on the market. In the end, I think we’re all underwhelmed by the Cavaliers’ trade deadline exploits and end up having to wait until the summer for any serious moves to be made.” [Kaczmarek/Fear the Sword]

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“Choo may be underrated by the baseball public, but I guarantee that he’s not underrated by other General Managers, who will be trying to outbid each other to land Choo next winter. By that time it’s likely that he’ll be on another club, as the combination of his pending free agency and a poor 2013 team outlook will probably prompt the Indians to deal him sooner or later.

Having Scott Boras as your agent does simplify your career path if you’re a good player. There have been exceptions (Jared Weaver to name one of them), but generally his clients eschew long-term contracts before free agency, even at times long-term contracts that don’t buy out any free agent years. That means that a player has the risk of waiting for that big payday until their late-20s or early-30s, but most of the time, it’s worked out. It is very rare for a Boras client to declare free agency and re-sign with his former club, much less a club that could be classified as small-market or mid-market.” [Ryan/Let’s Go Tribe]

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And finally…. Come On Cavs!

  • porckchopexpress

    I’m very wary of using advanced stats in basketball simply because the team on the floor can dictate an individuals stats. I’m not oppossed, but I’d need to see how the models are built, specifically how they account for things like judging Varejao’s defensive efficecy, when he is playing with a porous backcourt. Is he fouling and out of position because he is “too old” or is it because its impossible to rotate fast enough to compensate for the speed with which opposing point guards get past Kyrie. Just one example, but in basketball you need to still trust your eyes.

  • mgbode
  • mgbode

    it’s the issue with any stats in any sport. you need to look at a ton of stats and also utilize your eyes. NBA FO’s have 2nd and 3rd level stats that help out as well.

    the best way (for us rube fans) to look at things for AV is to go look at the 5man groups he was in and look at their efficiencies with someone else there. it’s still limited but gives a decent view of what added benefit he is providing.

    for instance, when you look at our best defensive 5man groups from last season, they all have 1 thing in common. Samardo Samuels at center (and many with TT at PF).

    however, if you look closer, then you’ll see AV is paired with Jamison in all his groupings and Jamison himself was good to destroy almost any defensive pairing out on the floor. my favorite is looking at lines 11/12 and seeing that substituting Ryan Hollins for Jamison is good for .14 defensive improvement and .05 offensive improvement (Jamison was an inefficient scorer). Now that is still simplistic as you have to see who they played against in those minutes, etc.

    but, overall, looking at those groupings, it appears that our best defenders purely by the numbers were: Samuels, Gee and AV. TT somewhere in the mix as well. Other than TT (who was hit-or-miss on defense IMO) that is not surprising at all. seeing the numbers backup what you thought you watched is always a good thing.

    http://www.82games.com/1112/1112CLE2.HTM

  • mgbode

    and if anyone wants to see why I don’t want Sloan on our team, then just take a look at the efficiency stats when he is on the floor. defense goes to crud and we’re lucky if we hit average offense.

  • Harv 21

    just watched that and then the Johnson Bademosi interview – wow, what a smart and impressive young guy. Looked him up and saw he was a corner at Stanford. If he has enough physical tools won’t be surprised to see him work his way into the defensive secondary. Gonna keep an eye on this kid.

  • mgbode

    Bademosi doesn’t seem to have the physical skills required to be a starter in the secondary. However, I am rooting for him to stick as our ST guru.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    Alot of defense and perfect role players but only one All-Star franchise player, sound familiar?

  • mgbode

    alot of defense? frontcourt, sure. but, we are terrible at defense on the wings and PG (Gee is okay, but going 2-deep we are still bad).

    we need TT, Dion, and/or Zeller to make a mini-leap at some point this season or we will not even be playoff contenders. we need a bigger leap by next season if we want to do any damage in the playoffs.

  • The_Real_Shamrock

    I was trying to be optimistic lol.