While We’re Waiting… History on Browns’ side? Waiters in summer school and the Boren-ator
July 17, 2012Zeller, Sloan Headline Cavs First Summer League Win
July 17, 20127:00 PM – Manny Acta has rejiggered his lineup again for tonight’s game. Since we all know (including Manny Acta) that lineup construction doesn’t really matter all that much from a run-scoring perspective, we can only believe that Acta is trying to send a message. Message recipients in bold:
POS | Player |
9 | Choo |
6 | Cabrera |
4 | Kipnis |
8 | Brantley |
5 | Lopez |
DH | Hafner |
2 | Santana |
3 | Kotchman |
7 | Damon |
7:14 PM – Choo just homered off Alex Cobb to right center to lead off the game, but it looks like they’re going to check on the replay.
7:15 PM – I was worried about this. They send Choo back to second base, which is pretty lame, because rather than playing the ball and getting it back into the infield, BJ Upton threw his hands up in the air and complained. Choo would easily have gotten to third on the play, but instead he gets sent back to second base. I think this is the rule–no matter what, if it’s ruled not to have left the park, it’s a ground rule double. Boo hiss.
7:24 PM – We almost didn’t score that inning, which would’ve been pathetic. After Choo was sent back to second base, Asdrubal grounded out to second base, advancing Choo to third. Then Kipnis hit a grounder against a pulled-in infield that didn’t score Choo. Now two outs. Luckily, Cobb followed with a passed ball to score Choo, and a Brantley walk just for good measure. Lopez ends the inning with a strikeout. 1-0 Tribesmen.
7:35 PM – Despite working a scoreless bottom of the first, we might want to note two things regarding young Zach McAllister’s performance. First, he threw 25 pitches that inning; TD requires me to mention first inning pitchcounts in every recap. Second, of those 25 pitches, only 10 were strikes, resulting in two walks. This is not what we call a propitious beginning.
7:54 PM – Rather than discussing the second inning, which was long and boring, let me present three quick points that deal only liminally with today’s release of former first round draft pick Trevor Crowe:
First, here’s a quote from the Indians’ 2010 Media Guide regarding John Mirabelli and his tenure as the team’s Amateur Scouting Director:
From 2000-07 he coordinated and directed the club’s endeavors in the June First Year Player Draft. During his tenure as the head of scouting the Indians drafted players such as Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Garko, Trevor Crowe, Tony Sipp, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey, Beau Mills, Jordan Brown, Chris Gimenez, David Huff & Jensen Lewis to name a few.
I’ll remind you that this blurb is meant to be complimentary in nature, which is patently absurd. I’ll also remind you that Mirabelli was PROMOTED to Vice President of Scouting Operations based on the track record outlined therein. Finally, I’ll remind you that the syntactical construction “…to name a few…” is a particularly smug phrase, even moreso in the context of the aforementioned overwhelming failure.
Second, a table presented, without subsequent comment:
YEAR | 1st Round Pick | Career WAR | Indians WAR |
2000 | Corey Smith | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2001 | Dan Denham | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2001 | Alan Horne | 0.0 | 0.0 |
2002 | Jeremy Guthrie | 10.4 | -0.2 |
2003 | Michael Aubrey | 0.1 | -0.3 |
2003 | Bradley Snyder | -0.2 | 0.0 |
2004 | Jeremy Sowers | 3.3 | 3.3 |
2005 | Trevor Crowe | -0.5 | -0.5 |
2007 | Beau Mills | 0.0 | 0.0 |
TOTAL | 13.1 | 2.3 |
…………..DRAMATIC PAWS…………………….
Third, a haiku:
To be the worst pick
Of All, Crazy Eyez Rally
Killa, Takes Mad Skillz
8:01 PM – Back to baseball. For the third inning in a row, the Indians get their leadoff man on, this time by way of a Johnny Damon opposite field double. Since June 1st, Damon is batting .264/.312/.425. Make no mistake: this is not an impressive line for a defensively impaired corner outfielder. On the other hand, it’s probably the best option we have right now. I can’t tell if that’s encouraging or depressing, but it is probably true.
Choo drives Damon home with an opposite field double of his own.
After an Asdrubal strike out and a swipe of third base by Choo, Jason Kipnis drives a double to the gap in right center to score Choo and open the lead up. Still only one out and our cleanup hitter (!) Michael Brantley comes to the plate.
Since June 1st, Michael Brantley has hit .336/.396/.517 (.914 OPS). Do you know the last Indian to have .900 OPS season and at least 400 plate appearances? None in 2011. None in 2010. Not 2009 either. In 2008 Shin-Soo Choo had .946 OPS, but only played about half the season (370 plate appearances). Not even in 2007 when the Indians won more games than any other in baseball did the team have an everyday player with an OPS above .900. Nope, it was 2006, when both Grady Sizemore (.907) and Travis Hafner (1.097) mashed the ball all over the place. That’s how good Michael Brantley’s been over the last month and a half.
Anyway, Brantley walks for the second time tonight, but Jose Lopez hits into some tough luck on liner to third base that doubles off Jason Kipnis. 3-0 Good Guys.
8:48 PM – McAllister, despite having minimal command of his fastball, manages to send the Rays down in order in the bottom of the third, using mostly his changeup.
In the top of the fourth, the Indians meant to continue the onslaught. Except they didn’t. Hafner leads off with a walk, followed by a Santana single1, and a Kotchman walk to load the bases with no one out. Let’s pause and consider the following run expectancy chart:
OUTS |
||||
0 | 1 | 2 | ||
Empty | 0.555 | 0.297 | 0.117 |
RUN EXPECTANCY |
1st | 0.953 | 0.573 | 0.251 | |
2nd | 1.189 | 0.725 | 0.344 | |
3rd | 1.482 | 0.983 | 0.387 | |
1st_2nd | 1.573 | 0.971 | 0.466 | |
1st_3rd | 1.904 | 1.243 | 0.538 | |
2nd_3rd | 2.052 | 1.467 | 0.634 | |
Loaded | 2.417 | 1.65 | 0.815 |
Which means we were expected to score between two and three runs that inning. Here we go….
After a Damon strikeout, Joe Maddon pulls his starter after only 3.1 IP. Choo pops out and Asdrubal strikes out swinging or looking, it doesn’t really matter, since the inning is over and my crest has fallen off.
Since July 1st, Asdrubal is sporting a .143/.192/.184 line. That’s a .376 OPS, kids. Neat.
8:53 PM – As Joni Mitchell once sang, “Don’t it always seem to go that when you can’t score in a bases loaded, no one out situation that the Rays will make you pay in the subsequent half inning?” Anyway, McAllister opens the inning by allowing three straight hits to put the Rays on the board, the third of which drilled McAllister’s pitching arm. Men on first and second, 3-1 Tribe, still no one out.
8:56 PM –It turns out that Joni Mitchell was Canadian, so that song was actually about ice hockey, not baseball. McAllister induces a groundball double play from Desmond Jennings followed by this gem from Asdrubal to end the inning. .376 OPS, but still got glove, it would seem.
9:01 PM – Jason Kipnis leads off the top of the fifth with a double to the left-center gap. This is important for two reasons: (1) The Indians have had their leadoff man reach base IN EVERY INNING SO FAR and (2) the Indians have had FIVE DOUBLES tonight. Needless to say that we should have so many more runs than we have.
9:07 PM – Michael Brantley draws another walk, which is three on the evening. In his last 21 plate appearances, Brantley’s made four outs. Which is re-gosh-darned-diculous.2 First and second with nobody out.
9:12 PM – You’re not going to believe this, but the Indians found a way not to score again. Jose Lopez grounded into a double play and Hafner popped out to second. Inning over.
9:17 PM – McAllister is now through five fairly uneventful innings. He’s been lucky not to have his hits coincide with his walks, as he’s given up three of each. Nonetheless, 1 ER through 5 IP is nothing to to turn one’s nose up at, regardless of the inciting circumstances.
9:29 PM – Yuck. Asdrubal Cabrera strikes out again. Leaves two base runners on. Again. Indians should have eleventy runs, but don’t. In fact, they have only three. Still 3-1.
9:42 PM – After McAllister sends the Rays down again in the bottom of the sixth, Kipnis leads off the seventh with a walk. That would be eight walks for the Indians tonight. Also, six out of seven of their innings have begun with the leadoff man reaching base safely. THEY. HAVE. THREE. RUNS.
9:51 PM – Strike ‘em out, Throw ‘em out DOUBLE PLAY to end the inning!! This game stinks!
9:54 PM – You can’t say you weren’t expecting it. On the first pitch of the inning, Desmond Jennings takes Esmil Rogers DEEP to left field for a solo HR. 3-2 Indians. This is where we might have been able to use all those scoring chances….
10:00 PM – After retiring Molina and Johnson on consecutive groundouts, Rogers walks Will Rhymes on four pitches. If you’re counting at home, that’s 0.2 IP, 1 HR, 1 BB for Rogers. I’ve seen better outings.
In related news, Tony Sipp enters the game to face Carlos Pena. Joe Maddon, who has evidently not seen Tony Sipp pitch this year, pinch hits Sean Rodriguez. I’m ascared.
10:07 PM – Sipp walks Rodriguez on four pitches, and then throws ball one to Ben Zobrist. Evidently, this is sufficient proof of his (in)abilities, because Acta goes back to the pen for Vinnie Pestano. This is the right move, probably, but you wish that between Sipp, Hagadone, Perez and Barnes you had at least ONE left hander you could count on. We have none. So Vinnie will face a left-handed batter, which is not ideal.
10:10 PM – Vinnie does his Vinnie thing. Strikes out Zobrist on four pitches, which should leave him fine for the eighth inning.
You don’t like to see him being asked to go more than an inning at a time too often, but this was necessary: the team’s lost two in a row and is starting to fall out of the division race. Losing this game would be entirely unacceptable, and you get the feeling that everyone knew it.
Still, there’s two innings to go.
10:17 PM – The Indians buck the trend, and get no one on base before not scoring in the top of the eighth.
10:31 PM – We shouldn’t gloss over the considerable trouble that Vinnie got himself into that inning. But we’re going to anyway, because narratives.
Vinnie struck out BJ Upton and Brooks Conrad that inning. I tweeted this the other night, but it’s worth repeating because of how ridiculous it is. For his career, Vinnie has now faced 237 right handed batters. He has struck out 110 of them. That’s 46%. That’s gross, and more important than a Luke Scott opposite field single. So there.
10:38 PM – You’re never gonna guess what happened, you guys. We got our leadoff man on! Jack Hannahan ripped a single up the middle.
10:38:03 PM – Shin-Soo Choo grounded into a double play. Stop getting your hopes up.
10:41 PM – Asdrubal Cabrera is terrible. Fourth strike out tonight for him. Tenth for the Indians, which means the fans in Tampa get a churro or something.
Inning over. 3-2 Indians heading to the bottom of the ninth. Rage coming on.
10:44 PM – Perez strikes out Johnson to lead off the inning. Two of the four pitches were breaking balls. Slightly odd for CP.
10:46 PM – Will Rhymes grounds out weakly to second base. Two down. I’m truly exhausted.
10:47 PM – Hey look! Hideki Matsui’s ears are still enormous! Anyway, he’s pinch hitting now.
10:48 PM – CP wasted no time this evening, though his competition was, er, compliant. Perez strikes out Matsui looking for his 26th save of the season.
Games like these need to be won, if only because losing them would incite contempt and self-flagellation to rival Dimmesdale. This was an ugly game. But it was an ugly win, which can’t be discounted. And yes, there were positive things to take from it. Getting men on base to begin an inning is a good thing. Pestano and Perez are good things. Kipnis, Brantley, Choo, and yes, even Damon looked like good things.
But let’s not wallpaper over the glaring issues here. Outside of two (maybe three) bullpen arms, this mafia looks short a few firearms. Half the lineup is laughable. If you believe in clutch hitting, we sure don’t have it. This team remains, despite our best hopes, horribly flawed.
Which brings us to the trading deadline. You have to imagine something is in the works, but without any major trade chips, you wonder how much we might be able to land. An addition would be great, but without seriously improved play from the pieces we have, this second half could be rough.
But a win’s a win, and this team needed this one. Tonight they’ll go up against decidedly tougher pitching in Matt Moore. Opportunities cannot be so prodigally tossed aside.
41 Comments
The 7:54 post illustrates everything wrong with the Indians organization. It’s really, really, really hard to get fired, even if you are terrible at your job. Sometimes you even get promoted. Hell, Wedge would probably still be the manager if Shapiro and Dolans didn’t feel so much heat from the fans. Sigh…
Great recap. And this quote is right on – “You have to imagine something is in the works, but without any major
trade chips, you wonder how much we might be able to land. An addition
would be great, but without seriously improved play from the pieces we
have, this second half could be rough.”
I’m not expecting the Indians to make a move. They’re competing with 7 other teams for the Wild Card and that’s just in the AL! I think they’ll be priced out of the trade market for anyone that could legitimately help. The help is going to have to come from within – Asdrubal, Hafner and Santana need their bats to wake up. Raffy Perez needs to come back and be an effective arm for Acta in the pen. And Tomlin needs to pitch well on a consistent basis while the rookie Zackattack needs to keep his decent performances coming.
For real. That is a Resume of SUCK.
I nearly drove off the road yesterday when I believe in the top of the 3rd, when we had a guy on second and nobody out and Ass-Dribble at the plate.. .Hamilton comments that the Rays are playing like Cabrera will bunt. Tommy was appauled by this, because the Indians are, as you know, last in the MLB in bunts, and I’m not making this up: “There’s no way Cabrera should bunt, you can’t take the bat out of his hands, swing away!”. NO!!! THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT HE SHOULD DO IS BUNT!! He’s so so so so so bad right now.
I think they should go try to get Roberto Hernandez
I never thought that someone’s drafting resume could look so bad. He’s the anti-Presti.
Great chart on the years 2000-2007 to show why this team is devoid of being able to do anything. But they knew this and instead chose to make excuses and flood us with Tribe speak. Sure there is inequality in baseball when it comes to money is huge but people continue to overlook how pathetic the Indians have been when it comes to drafting players. If you can’t afford to spend on players then you better make sure you have a pipeline loaded with young talent to continually replenish. The Indians don’t even have a hose at this point.
With that said, how ridiculous is it for the Tribe to be in the playoff hunt when our front office doesn’t sign big-name free agents and doesn’t draft well? They are exceptionally talented at picking up players from other teams’ minor league systems… too bad the other components aren’t there.
with Votto going out for the next 4-6 weeks, the Reds desperately need a LHB. they are a team full of RHB. we, as mentioned perhaps a couple times, need a RHB. could we potentially make the rare MLB for MLB player swap to help both teams?
“in prime” players who struggle on offense but great defense:
Drew Stubbs for Casey Kotchman (not sure where he goes when Votto is back though)
or a more minor player swap:
Chris Heisey for Jack Hannahan (Jose Lopez makes more sense, but he’s RHB)
or an all-out blockbuster trade:
Choo (feeling we cannot re-sign next year), Marson*, Kotchman
for
Bruce (yeah, a LHB, but locked in through 2017), Stubbs**
*Mesoraco is their C of the future, but they need to win now and he’s hurting them and Hanigan is what he is at this point.
**may have to substitute Stubbs for Ludwick to get them to bite on that one because of how long Bruce is signed.
You hit the nail on the head TRADING has saved them big time. Cabrera, Choo, Santana, Brantley, Masterson, Perez and Jimenez just to name a few. You’d think trading for guys would be more difficult then drafting but not for the Indians. I also think coaching (this is where the topic of yesterday’s article about talent talent evaluation vs talent development comes in) has helped. The problem is the coaching for the Indians isn’t given enough talent to start. The other problem is as soon as what talent is here grows and blossoms the team can’t afford to retain it.
about as ridiculous as it is that the Royals have had some “great” drafts according to the experts and yet they cannot buy a year where they even pretend to compete.
Practically the only reason I still keep my cable package is to watch the Tribe but Jon,man, your recaps distill the essence and are more fun than watching a game like this. Maybe I’ll shoot you a courtesy cut of my savings if I pull the plug on Time Warner.
Also, maybe the Dolans should hire Lew Merlotti or Lou Freed to tail Astrubal as July approaches to figure out what he’s been up to. Performance looks like it’s dropping off that mid-season cliff, again.
So just for fun… “Jeremy Sowers, Ryan Garko, Trevor Crowe, Tony Sipp, Ben Francisco, Aaron Laffey, Beau Mills, Jordan Brown, Chris Gimenez, David Huff & Jensen Lewis to name a few.”
Who is the best player on that list? Laffey? Garko??? Yeesh.
Stubbs showed some real promise until he got hurt even still I don’t know if the Reds would move him for the light hitting (feeling generous) Kotchman.
Heisey is ok…wouldn’t lose anything trading Hannahan in fact I’d probably prefer to keep Lopez since he can also play 1B some.
We discussed Choo a few days ago I honestly see no way the Indians retain him which means another trade. It’ll just reawaken the Lee and Sabathia deals but lets face it the Indians can’t/won’t pay him. Bruce is a stud throw in someone like Stubbs or even Ludwick and I’d be tempted. I’d think a pitcher would be more of an interest but I don’t know who the Reds have (minors I’m assuming) to deal.
One issue with trading Kotchman is that Lopez/Duncan/Santana have to then be our primary 1B. That will be a hit.
As far as Kotchman vs. Stubbs, I would say that both have been “light hitting” guys. Stubbs may have more perceived upside due to his speed, but he has struggled at the plate.
Name Age OPS+-2009 2010 2011 2012
Stubbs 27: 99 105 85 76
Kotchman 29: 90 73 128 86
Not saying it’s certain they won’t trade Choo, but it would be pretty shocking when he’s supplying a lot of your offense, when you’re 3 games out in July, in a year of your closing contention window.
They’re not going to replace his recent production, and the message heard by fans would be “no good players walk for free, even if we torpedo a contending season.” That’s a PR fiasco that would be hard to overcome.
What are you talking about? The Royals are the team of the future!
Signed,
Every Royals Fan and MLB Analyst since 2001.
even if we got back Jay Bruce?
oh, I agree. each and every year, they are the team of “the future”
in fact, they just should change their names to the KC “Flying Cars”
The Royals have drafted young hitting just about as well as anyone they’ve just been unable to keep it. Damon and Beltran come to mind right off the bat. One of their best arms, Greinke, they felt they couldn’t resign so they traded him. If they had better pitching they’d be better off but they are a mirror of the Indians really.
Or the KC Dippin’ Dots
He got bumped out of that role. The new guy has done a much better job.
And its so easy to sit here and just say the drafts sucked. It’s not easy to go back and figure out what the Indians did wrong. The majority of those guys were very highly rated by everyone. Guthrie fell to the Indians because he was the highest rated pitcher in the draft and was considered a difficult sign. Dolan ponied up to help the farm system. Snyder and Aubrey were considered great talents who ended up being unable to stay healthy. Do you punish Mirabelli when everyone and their mother was wrong on Guthrie and Aubrey, Snyder and Miller couldn’t stay healthy?
hardly a mirror when they have had 0 upticks where they even challenged for a playoff spot this century.
Don’t take that trade as a serious possibility. Don’t see why the Reds to trade him for half season of Choo and some flotsam, and don’t see Dolans taking on another $40m guaranteed through 2016 for Bruce.(Never mind the 2017 team option at that price).
it’s actually not too difficult to see where the Indians went wrong in the draft (though there is a valid point that the MLB-bust rate is the highest among the major sports)
Take Trevor Crowe for instance. We (and most teams) passed on Jacoby Ellsbury because of sign-ability. The Red Sox drafted him at the end of the 1st round and have been quite happy with him. We changed our draft strategy to put more $$ behind the draft in 2008 (among top spenders since then), but Selig changed the rules in the last CBA to neuter those effects.
Ellsbury: http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050607&content_id=1079601&vkey=draft2005&fext=.jsp
He was projected as a top 10 pick by Baseball America and one reason he
might have slipped is because he is represented by Scott Boras and certain teams
perceived that there could be some signability issues
we have Choo through next season. Reds have the $$ to sign him long-term and he is an upgrade to Bruce.
Bruce makes less $$ than Hafner this season (even in the last 2 years of his deal), so we would just be replacing salary there.
Maybe at some point they did, but 2 weeks before the draft, they had Ellsbury 25th, just a couple spots ahead of Crowe, who they called “college baseball’s
best hitter”.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/2005draft/top200h.html
Crowe wasn’t considered one of our better picks. Almost everyone knew his bat wouldn’t play in LF, but the idea was that he could play 2B. You can blame the guys who thought he would work out there, but there the same ones who recognized that Kipnis would be a solid defensive 2B.
great, make me bare my doubts: 1) Don’t believe Dolans operating under “replacement salary” methods at least at these salary levels. They are trying to shed; 2) Even if they did intend to replace that type of salary, Bruce is not the Haf the Dolans thought they were getting, and don’t think the market has inflated like that for Bruce to justify that type of Dolan plunge. I think they’d like (ok, I’d like) for them to lock up Kipnis if possible. Ok, take the last shot, I have to work.
Now that’s what I like in my Cleveland sports blogs; references to The Scarlet Letter!
I’d go: Francsico > Garko > Laffey
If signability was such a major factor in the Indians’ drafts through the 2000’s then I think that makes it a lot harder to judge Mirabelli’s record. For all we know, maybe he had several future stars pegged as such and just couldn’t draft them because of dollars and cents? He did draft Lincecum.
None of which excuses him for the poor track record as a whole.
The WAR numbers tend to agree. I was slightly amazed that Francisco ranked that highly (umm, respectively). I didn’t remember him doing *that* much.
I like how you worded that, “this century” because that disallows for the Royals who featured some pretty good teams. Crafty, very crafty. Anyways my mirror comment was more for being unable to retain home grown players.
Look at my man Steve dropping the knowledge get down with your bad self!
I could live with that trio at 1B although if Santana plays there and you deal Marson who is the backup? I hope not that HS looking guy who was in there earlier this season when Santana was hurt.
He really wasn’t around long enough to be appreciated imo. He really only had one full season plus maybe another full one spread out over two half-seasons or so.
fair enough. and man, they nailed the top14 of that class.
well, I could have worded it a few different ways:
the Royals have not won a division or wild card berth in the wild card era. or in the 9 years that preceded it.
the last time they made the playoffs Ronald Reagan was running this country and our main adversary was the USSR.
the last time they made the playoffs Pete Rose was still playing baseball.
no need for a it. alot of sense in those arguments. i don’t think they are trying to shed (they have shown their “normal” range is in the 60s), but we do need to lock-up our youth for their arbitration years (and hopefully steal a few extra).
umm….maybe the Reds give us Hanigan as a throw-in since they would have Marson & Morelsco?
I think I cut this front office more slack than most, but I can’t go this far.
For eight straight years, our first round picks (which is really what the amateur scouting director focuses on) were beyond pathetic. At what point do you question the guy in charge? At what point do you look around the league and see that literally no other team had as many first round failures as Cleveland? Sure, every team has its misses, but to not find one viable Big Leaguer in all those years? The buck eventually has to stop, right?
And if anything, Brad Grant’s recent successes should make us that much more aware of how terrible Mirabelli was.
By saying, “He got bumped out that role” you’re ignoring the plain facts: after close to a decade of drafts that produced no Major League talent, he was PROMOTED to VP. I wouldn’t call that being “bumped out”.
I’d call it hitting the lottery.
We can talk more about Mirabelli’s apparent obsession with college players or finesse arms, but to get too specific misses the point: with the possible exception of Guthrie, the picks for which he was most responsible as amateur scouting director ALL failed.