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May 9, 2012
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You have to believe me: I didn’t know what I was getting into.
I was completely unaware of the narrative surrounding Chris Perez in non-save situations (or is it tie games? Or extra innings? I get confused.).
As the kids say, “I didn’t know that was a thing.”
So when twitter exploded last night after Perez allowed two runs to break a tie game, I wasn’t feeling combative. I was mostly curious. There were so many people suggesting that Perez just couldn’t handle that situation that I wondered how I had missed it. How had Acta missed it? WIth those glasses and everything?
I had to look it up. But how?
Thank goodness Al Gore created a magical series of tubes for just that purpose. In two seconds, I found this link and tweeted it:
|
WHIP |
K/9 |
ERA |
|
| Save Situations |
1.24 |
8.3 |
2.94 |
| Non-Save Situations |
1.14 |
8.6 |
3.24 |
Mind you, I wasn’t really making an argument. I was just pointing out that the story so many people seemed to be spinning—that Chris Perez is lights-out in save situations but awful elsewhere—is not particularly identifiable in the actual, recorded facts.
I was then informed, of course, that I was doing it wrong. It wasn’t save situations vs. non-save situations. It was that he couldn’t pitch in tie games.
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
| Tie Game |
0.172 |
0.309 |
0.336 |
| With a Lead |
0.206 |
0.291 |
0.324 |
Again, I was just not seeing enough evidence to convince me of the narrative.
Again, I was doing it wrong.
I got a tweet with the hashtag “#NumbersDontLie” (TRENDING!, you guys) that pointed out that Chris Perez, in extra innings, in 2011, had an 8.59 ERA. QED, as they say.
Perez’s problem, couldn’t I see, is related to innings with double digit vintages, in the Year of Our Lord Two Thousand and Eleven, and only a moron could fail to see that connection. Numbers don’t lie.
Except that when I looked up those truth-telling numbers, the sample size was (wait for it…) SEVEN INNINGS.
I would love to tell you how I feel about seven inning sample sizes in bloody and gory detail, but let me put it this way. In ten minutes last night I picked out twelve different seven inning samples from Mariano Rivera’s career wherein he sustained an ERA over 8.00. That guy must suck hard! And in Missouri ballparks in 2012 he has a 100% chance of tearing his ACL! NUMBERS GONNA TRUTHITUDE!
But even more than the ridiculousness of using such a microscopic sample to make it fit the narrative you already had in your head, why not just ask yourself this: self, do I think that 7 innings of evidence is enough to make me believe I understand the psychology, fears, mental roadblocks, and emotional timbre of a man I’ve never met, whose job I’ve never had, and whose beard I can only envy?
Because that’s what the narrative is getting at, right? Not that Chris Perez is physically incapable of pitching in these spots, but that he’s mentally weak, but ONLY IN PARTICULAR situations, and therefore should not be used in those situations.
This dime store psychology lesson, I should remind you, is based on seven innings.
Look. I don’t care what narratives you believe. I spent most of 2011 convinced that Orlando Cabrera was the second unidentifiable shooter from the Zapruder film. I believe Matt LaPorta will never be able to hit a major league curve ball. I believe that one day, Shelley Duncan will come over to my house for dinner, with a bottle of Wild Turkey in place of the more traditional Chardonnay. We all have our own hobby horses, and I’m not here to turn yours into glue.
But I’m afraid we’re missing the bigger point with regard to Chris Perez. I’ve written about this countless times before, but look at the chart below, and tell me it doesn’t scare the bejeezus out of you.
|
K/9 |
K% |
FB-Velocity |
|
| 2009 |
10.74 |
28.5% |
94.2 |
| 2010 |
8.71 |
23.5% |
94.5 |
| 2011 |
5.88 |
15.7% |
93.3 |
| 2012 |
6.59 |
16.7% |
92.9 |
He doesn’t strike guys out like he used to, because he doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. This is a problem. In 2011 he had the lowest K-rate among AL closers. This season he’s striking out fewer batters than JOSH-FREAKING-TOMLIN, while walking nearly twice as many. Luckily, he’s given up exactly zero home runs so far this season, so his ERA hasn’t ballooned. Unfortunately, that is not remotely sustainable.
There are real conversations to be had about Chris Perez, based on significant trends we can see over the last several years. Intelligent people can disagree on whether these are problems that should be addressed or not (believe it or not, I fall into the “not” category right now). They can debate whether it would’ve been advantageous to trade him last off-season, or if it might be some time soon. They can seriously consider whether it makes sense to have arguably a team’s third best reliever pitching in the highest-leverage situations.
And yes, they can do all that while still telling themselves stories about psychology and 7 inning samples. As Homer would say, I like stories. But it’s important to remember that stories are what we use to fill in the spaces between facts. They’re not facts themselves.
The facts are scary enough by themselves, after all.
Also: Kirk, every time we fight it just diminishes this a little bit.
43 Comments
Nice article.
My issue wasnt that he brought Perez into a tie game or that it was extras, but that Hags pitched so well in the 9th. Plus why not try and give Perez an extra off day? Both he and pestano werent available on Monday because of heavy workloads….why not see if you could squeeze an extra inning out of Hags?
Perez simply has to get the job done either way though.
I was more worried last year with Perez’s K-rate drop. Still not great this year but seems to be getting more swing and misses though perhaps i am mistaken.
Ha ha, outstanding article, Jon.
Is anything second-guessed as much as pitching changes? (Guilty as charged, your honor. Acta pulling Masterson in the Opener was the biggest bone-head blunder of all time, not that I obsess about it or anything).
But just as it’s the manager’s job to put his players in the best position to succeed, it’s also up to the players to do their jobs.
I can’t blame Acta for this one. You could argue that he should have left Hagedone in, but Perez just didn’t do his job.
I agree with MrCleaveland that players must do their jobs. Let’s be honest…if Hagadone or Sipp had blown saves on Monday when Acta gave Pestano and Perez the day off, he would have been BLASTED in every media outlet imaginable. But, those guys did their jobs and saved those games.
2011Entered 5ExitedDecRslt9t — 0 out tie9t end tieW(4-7)W6-59t — 0 out tie9t 3 out tieW4-39t — 0 out tie9t end d 1L(2-6)L2-39t — 0 out tie9t end d 1L(2-3)L3-49t — 0 out tie9t 3 out tieW5-29t — 0 out tie9t end tieW(2-1)W5-49t — 0 out tie9t 3 out tieW3-29t — 0 out tie9t end tieW(1-1)W9-510t — 0 out tie10t 3 out tieW3-210t — 0 out tie10t end d 1L(2-4)L4-510t — 0 out tie10t end d 1L(2-2)L2-310b — 0 out tie10b end d 4L(3-7)L3-710b 12- 1 out tie11b 3 out tieL7-810b 1– 2 out tie11b 3 out tieL3-4
Perez Record 3-5Indians Record 7-7
In good format.
Bottom Line
Perez Record 3-5 Indians Record 7-7
i agree with you jon. perez just is not that overpowering. and the save stat is one of the more useless for measuring performance.
mind you, im not calling for hagadone. i actually think perez’ temperment makes him uniquely suited for closer. but my expectations for perez are calibrated way down.
he had 90% save pct last year which is very good actually. the blown saves always stay in the memory longer. i’d expect the same this year. note that that means 10% of the time he will fail.
he’s a heart-attack closer but steps up and takes on the challenge with gusto. win some lose some. move along people, nothing to see here.
thank you, and this is great btw. I really wanted you to say a line like “good thing its not 2011 anymore” about the “numbers dont lie” thing in response to whatever situation it was in 2011. because you cant pick certain innings out of one year, when he has a career of innings to consider.
I love stats probably as much as anyone, but I feel a lot of people see statistics as a black and white and apply wide reaching realizations because numbers in a certain situation. honestly, its true numbers dont lie, but it depends on the question because you can find stats to say almost anything if you dilute them enough. numbers are powerful and people should be careful.
The whole “closing” of a game has become contrived it’s one of those aspects of the game that was created by the statistical junkie manager and now it’s become the trend. There are multiple closers and teams struggling right now throughout baseball but as far as Perez is concerned as the numbers indicate it should be expected.
I personally don’t understand or buy into bringing your closer into a tie game just to make sure you keep the game tied for the home team’s next ABs. I think a majority of the time this takes place when a team is at home right? Not 100% sure of that but it seems like that is the trend.
He is Bob Wickman Jr.
Gets the job done usually, but not always pretty
thank you Jon for pulling the masses in by looking up the information (including myself).
however, you ARE doing it wrong 🙂
career-wise, yes, the numbers are similar. however, since he lost that K/9 rate, he has seemed to struggle in non-save situations. is it purely mental? does he get a bigger adrenaline rush knowing a ‘save’ is on the line? is the sample size for 2011/2012 just too small? i don’t know the answer.
but, here is what we do know for save and non-save situations in 2011:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=perezch01&year=2011&t=p
Situation PA SO/BB OPS tOPS ERA HR/9
Save 145 1.79 .570 76 2.75 0.25
Non-Save 104 1.17 .764 135 4.18 1.56
As you can see, this storyline has not developed out of thin air. Perez has less control, allows more hard hits, more runs, etc.
I’d like to see how many times Perez pitching in a tied game has COST the Indians the win. Because I’m sure it’s substantial. Look, he’s been bad in those situations, small sample size or not. Throw in another pitcher, and if he gets lit up in the same situation, then fine. But Perez apparently doesn’t have the right mind set to hold down a tied game.
Yes, you usually only see the closer brought into a tie game at home.
Reason is that when a game is tied heading into the 9th inning or later there is no chance for rhe home team to get a save. Your closer is typically viewed as your best reliever too so managers want to use them.
On the road you typically save your closer in case your team scores in the top half of the inning allowing you to use your closer in a save situation in the bottom half of the inning.
i agree. i like Perez’s temperament for the closer job. he doesn’t seem to get bothered by what happens on a day-to-day basis and he seems to get extra juice from the role. some would shrink from the pressure (and yes there is extra pressure in the role), he doesn’t.
then, you add in the advantage of him usually putting people on base and that he gets to start every opportunity with a clean slate. that helps him too and allows us to use our power pitchers when we need the punchouts more (though Perez was one of those guys just 2 years ago. ah well)
you cannot pick innings out of one year by themselves, but you can look at the broader scope and see if you can depict a pattern, no?
his K/9 rate went down drastically in 2011 and at the same time he started struggling in non-save situations when he has less adrenaline (conjecture!) flowing. those could be related, no?
I think teams that pay big money for closers are silly. But, I think the idea of the closer is brilliant. A manager gets to call upon one of this guys who might not be his “best” reliever, but someone who can have the memory of a DB in football and handle pressure well. He gets to call upon said guy and he gets extra kudos from media/fans in what was once a thankless job.
Wonderful article, Jon.
The quality, insightfulness and pure entertainment factor of the articles on this site as well as the statistics you use make this the best sports blog on the internet, hands down.
yes they can be correlated, and dont get me wrong 2011 is already written, if you want to say that in 2011 he wasnt good in certain situations, that will be a logical leap to make. however to transform that into 2012 like its a certainty based on those couple innings is where trouble will arise. maybe something to take a closer look at in 2012 along with velocity and k/rate and other important statistical measures, but you also have to compare it to non-save situations, then determine what you should do next.
I may be wrong but that velocity and those other numbers are decreasing regardless of situation, now if his stuff decreased a lot more in non-save situations then its important because the difference between non-save and save is what we are talking about. Im more of the opinion that he may not be what he was before regardless of the situation and we should be more careful but i dont think its statistically there to say hes unable to perform in only non save situations.
I think the closer should be the best reliever period but mentality is probably a more important quality then stuff. Although the latter helps too.
The chat with his average fb velocity is definitely wrong. Perez’s fastball averaged about 90 mph last year and he even claimed himself that he was unable to reach full speed all last year and that he feels much better this year. Plus who cares if he’s not striking batters out? Neither did Borowski or Wickman and they were both effective closers.
Impossible thing to really quantify. How di you know a different pitcher wouldnt have blown the game instead of Perez?
Game 2 of the season against the blue jays Acta used Pestano in a tie game…gave up a HR. Cabrera tied it and then Perez pitched a scoreless inning in a tie game.
In any case, the offense blee this game by not scoring in the 7th. Man in 3rd and no outs….yet didnt score. Terrible
What is the deal with people focusing on the ‘lowering K rates’ recently? Yes, its nice to not have to rely on the defence and everything, but there are frankly there are more ways to get an out. Also, on the last chart, his K rate has increased over the last year, while the velocity was going down. Could it be a control issue, then? Or is it a mental thing? Or are we really just guessing when, apparently, there must be knee jerk reactions to every negative scenario?
K rate is an extremely powerful tool. If he can keep the opposing batter from putting a ball in play with a strikeout, there is less of a chance that said ball can be a hit/home run/fielding error. It’s just an out, and a closer needs 3 of them. If 1 of them is a strikeout, it means that the opposing team only really has 2 outs to do damage.
2012 is not a certainty. but, I maintain that his SO/9IP is on the 2011 track as is his performance in save vs. non-save situations thus far. incredibly small sample size, but I am not going to be surprised if it continues.
I don’t know about that. It’s been written and shown statistically that it often is more important for your best reliever to be in another role. It’s open for debate of course.
Doesn’t seem logical to me therefore it must be true especially in baseball. I love stats don’t get me wrong but I think one can find just about any statistic one wishes to justify a position when it comes to baseball.
Super duper article!!… “…in the year of our Lord…” hilarious
My biggest concern too was Perez not missing bats like he had in years past, I was just to busy with a 3 month old to do the research. I have always been concerned with the amount of runners he puts on base.
The mental arguement is always the easy one becuase it is subjective and cannot be quantified, perfect for the person who lacks the means to agrue a point strongly.
We’re still talking about a sample size of 23 innings! Playing Jon’s game, I bet we can find 23 inning streaks that make any great pitcher look terrible or vice versa. CC Sabathia has a 4.00+ ERA in 40 innings thus far into the season.
There’s two competing hypotheses here: one, it’s a statistical thing caused by the obviously small sample size. Two, this guy who played baseball his entire life, who has faced adversity at every level of a game where it’s “produce or go home”, has some weird mental block about pitching in situations that are supposedly slightly less stressful than the situations he regularly pitches in.
Which one seems more believable?
Fangraphs has his FB averaging 93.9 last year. 92.2 this year. They get their number from Baseball Info Solutions.
first, we are talking about a 59IP sample size. you cannot ignore the 36IP he did while saving games (I prefer to look at Plate Appearances rather than IP to be honest though). and, the problem with any “non-long” reliever is that sample size will always be compact. as Jon demonstrates above, the velocity and K-rate have changed yearly, so how can we expect him to pitch the same as his career moves forwards? we wouldn’t for a starter, but would have a better idea because of a bigger sample size.
as for believeability, well, it all depends on how you look at it and how you phrase it:
Perez is an emotional guy (see Alex Rios). Perez is the team’s closer. Perez pitches better in the emotional/stressful environment of a close situation for the last 13months.
I already mentioned sample size, but it is a trend. Jon’s article makes it sound like the discussion had no statistical merit. In the long-run, perhaps that is true, but the current trend makes it look false and that is where the discussion started.
which is why baseball is the most fun sport to debate 🙂
1.) Yes, you’re always going to run into sample size issues with closers and relievers. That’s why so few have consistently similar years.
2.) It’s unrealistic to expect a sample size of 23 innings to sync up with a sample size of 36 innings. There’s obviously going to be variance. The question is, is it enough to draw realistic conclusions from? I don’t think so. In short, it may be fun to talk about, but it’s useless as legit analysis imo.
3.) Current trends have Josh Hamilton hitting 600 HRs this season. Just because we’re saddled with small sample size it doesn’t mean when should start forming opinions based on them. Finding trends in small sample size is the definition of baseball madness.
4.) I have always found the mental explanations of sports completely unbelievable. Statistical analysis into clutchness have never found it to exist. I just don’t buy that Perez is some how less emotional/excited whatever in a 2-2 game than a 2-1 game. If you could quantify the stress, I’d have to imagine the difference would be neglible.
5.) Like Jon said, I think there are plenty of things to worry about with Perez without peering into his psyche and evaluating how he pitches in what we arbitrarily deem “extremely stressful situations” vs. “slightly less extremely stessful situations”.
It can be but I still believe in “gut feelings” and seeing a player too.
I don’t like to take it as far as the Moneyball type stuff. What wasn’t mentioned in that flic and what alot of people forgot was the starting pitching Oakland had, namely young underpaid pitching – oops.
Am i the only one really tired of the overuse of the word ‘narrative’? I see it in practically every article i read nowadays, not to mention my colleagues using it constantly. The accusation of Chris Perez being bad in non-save situations is more a ‘claim’ than an ongoing story… but i guess that just the narrative of me having pet peeves
young underpaid superior pitching is at the crux of the moneyball style of play (see: Tampa)
it appears we are going to agree to disagree here. i understand your arguments and believe in the statistical approach as well. we just disagree on some of the finer points here.
1. but, to discuss the players, we have to start somewhere.
2. the variance between the situations is huge in this case. my argument is to track it in 2012 and see if that variance holds up. if it does, then it shows there is merit to this discussion.
3. hyperbole rarely proves points. a seasonal variance vs. career arc is probably the way I should have phrased it.
4. and anyone that plays sports know that you feel more stress/anticipation near the end of a basketball game or an AB in the bottom of the 9th of a close game. I think it’s importance can easily be overblown, but I also think it is there.
5. as long as he’s closing games w/ a 90% success rate, then I think we actually have less to worry about than most other teams. and really, if his peripheral numbers do start affecting that success rate, then we take him out and plug in one of the other guys. Closers come and go and are usually pretty easily replaceable.
A+ article. I wish that every cleveland talking head was required to read it.
Also; you’d need to define “best reliever”. Relief pitching has evolved into situation based pitching versus simply a relief pitcher that comes in and closes out the game.
The game now demands you have a “long man”, righty and left matchup specialists, setup man and closer at your disposals.
I understand what your saying but I’d still want my closer to be my best reliever since he’ll be in regardless of who is batting when it matters the most.
I agree that it’s best to let it go. I think we’re at the point of just going in circles.
Only thing, I have to disagree with the notion that “we have to start somewhere” on general principle. If all you have is bad evidence, it doesn’t mean one should draw conclusions from it. Being the only evidence doesn’t make the intrinsic issues go away.
what fun would that be?
For those wondering, Chris Perez in ’11: Tie games, 14.1 IP, 3W, 5L, 4.39 ERA Non-ties: 45.1 IP, 1W, 2L, 2.98 ERA. Add in 2012… Tie games: 16.1 IP, 3W, 6L, 4.96 ERA, Non-ties: 57 IP, 1W, 2L, 3.00 ERA
I agree completely. I said they should have traded him last off season when his stock was higher. We have Hagadone to replace Pestano and Pestano to replace C. Perez. It’s always a tight-rope walk with this guy. He makes me nervous. He reminds me of Joe Borwowski (SP?). We need a closer we can depend on and we have guys in the pen that are lights out. Vinnie, Hagadone, Smith. Why is C.Perez out there. All I can hope is if we can sucker the Yanks in to taking a rider on him. I’d take him for a bag of balls. Unload this dude now! Value is just going down. Well written article A+
Glad we didn’t trade him, the fans love him, and his trade value is skyrocketing.