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May 31, 2012An Old Cowboy’s New Tricks: Josh Tomlin’s 2012 Approach
May 31, 2012Holding onto optimism as a Cleveland sports fan is a dangerous proposition. After winning the lottery last season, seeing the Cavaliers pick Kyrie Irving, and watching him blossom into the runaway Rookie of the Year, cementing his status as a franchise PG worth building around, things were feeling good in wine and gold country.
So heading into last night’s lottery, a certain quiet, reserved confidence set in. Nick Gilbert was representing us with pride again while Joe Haden, Josh Cribbs, Bernie Kosar, and Kyrie Irving were all coming back to try to replicate both the luck and results of last year’s lottery.
And I believed. Not that the Cavaliers were going to win the lottery1. But I believed the Cavaliers were going to get the #2 pick, or #3 at worst. I really believed and dreamed that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was going to be a Cavalier.
As the envelopes were sequentially revealed last night, one by one we saw nothing but chalk. Spots 14 through 5 incredibly all went according to plan. There was a certain relief that 4th was now the worst the Cavaliers could do, but still, hope grew. “This is happening,” I told myself. The Cavaliers are getting a top 2 pick. Then the 4th envelope opened, and rather than seeing the Hornets logo, we saw the Cavaliers logo. The Cavaliers fell out of the coveted top 3 and now need help to get MKG or Beal.
Oh, Cleveland sports….how quickly you give and how quickly you take away. It’s not that the 4th pick is all that bad. Getting 5th or 6th would have been much, much worse. Now, even if Anthony Davis, MKG, and Beal go 1 through 3, the Cavaliers will have their pick of the leftovers. That’s better than being forced to settle on leftovers.
No, the reason this is so crazy is the irony that by winning a coin toss, the Cavaliers lost the lottery. Oh, Cleveland sports, you cruel, cruel temptress. When the Cavaliers and Hornets finished the season with the same record, a coin toss was used to decide the order. The Cavaliers sent Nick Gilbert to get it done, and he did. The Cavaliers won the coin toss, giving the Cavaliers the inside track to one of those top 3 picks.
In reality, winning that coin toss cost the Cavaliers a shot at Anthony Davis and chance to give this team two franchise players who would so complement each other’s skill sets. It was oh so close to happening. But in reality, the Cavaliers now find themselves on the outside looking in.
So where, exactly, does that leave the Cavaliers? Well, we know the Hornets are taking Davis. They will not trade that pick. Not with a new owner coming in and looking to build a fresh, exciting new identity. Putting Davis out there with Eric Gordon, Jarrett Jack, Gustavo Ayon, Jason Smith, and perhaps any combination of Carl Landry, Chris Kaman, and Marco Belinelli2 gives the Hornets a nucleus to work with. The Hornets were one of the hottest teams in the NBA at the end of the season, they have an incredibly smart young coach, and it’s now easier to sell this team to the local fans there.
The Bobcats at #2 are a wildcard. Make no mistake, they need a SF in the worst way, and MKG is the no-brainer pick there. But Michael Jordan marches to the beat of his own drum, and he might do something incredibly stupid. Michael Jordan once drafted Kwame Brown on the basis of potential and theoretical upside. Might he do the same now for Andre Drummond? Or will continue his affinity to Carolina guys and reach for Harrison Barnes? It’s possible. But I think it’s ultimately unlikely. At some point, in the face of constant harsh criticism, Jordan has to take the safe pick and go with MKG. Doesn’t he?
The Wizards at #3 are also a little tricky to read. They have some size with Nene, Kevin Seraphin, Andray Blatche, and Trevor Booker, but that size didn’t help them on the boards at all. The Wizards could really use someone to provide some interior defense and rebounding as well some consistent post scoring. If MKG slides to #3, I believe the Wizards would take him in a heartbeat despite having Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton there already. Pairing MKG with John Wall is too enticing to pass up. If MKG goes #2, though, I’m not so sure Beal is the pick there at #3. Jordan Crawford showed some signs of life last year at the 2, and you could argue PF is a bigger need, particularly with Blatche’s stunning regression. Having Robinson grabbing defensive boards and kicking out to Wall to start the break the other way is an intriguing prospect.
For the Cavaliers at #4, what they do will so heavily depend on what Charlotte and Washington do. I see no scenario where MKG falls to #4. As much as I like Thomas Robinson, I don’t see the Cavaliers picking him. This means at #4, it’s either Beal or else you take a gamble on someone like Barnes, Drummond, or Jeremy Lamb.
This is why the #4 pick is so unfortunate. The Cavaliers do not control their own destiny to get Beal. If the top 3 go chalk Davis, MKG, and Beal, the Cavaliers must decide which project to gamble on. The most likely candidate will be Harrison Barnes, due to a combination of factors such as positional need, raw talent, and upside. But Harrison Barnes is no sure thing. And missing on this #4 pick would be a disaster.
There will be plenty of time to discuss scenarios between now and draft night, but I’ll leave you guys with this thought. In my opinion, the best way to get MKG is to work out a draft night trade with Charlotte. The Cavaliers have to hope the Bobcats decide they prefer Beal or Barnes or maybe even Drummond over MKG. The Bobcats can then draft MKG at #2, the Wizards take either Beal or Robinson, and then the Cavaliers select whichever player the Bobcats want at #4. From there, the Cavaliers work out a trade with Charlotte. Offering up the extra 1st round pick and one of the 2nd round picks might be enough to entice a team with such a lack of talent. That’s the hope, anyway. So here we are again, stuck with nothing but hope. Nobody ever said being a Cleveland fan was easy.
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Image Source: (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow /SPECIAL TO THE PLAIN DEALER)
75 Comments
That is just about the most asinine thing i’ve read yet regarding the draft. Congratulations!!
says the poster who loves a finesse PF with no outside shot
it’s my worry with Beal, honestly. last year, Barnes came on strong near the end of the year and played well in the tourney and I was convinced that the “switch” was turned on (I still like Irving better). He goes back and the switch gets turned on and off and on and off again.
this year, Beal plays great in the SEC/NCAA tournies and many move him ahead of guys like J.Lamb and Barnes who we had him behind the whole year (at least me). Is that switch turned on (he had some good games early but not consistent and he is only 6’3″)?
I can still see an argument for J.Lamb over Beal and won’t be upset if we actually make that call (if both are there). But, I have Beal above J.Lamb on my “cavs board” as he proved more in college. Not sure that’s the right way to do it though.
I think you meant to post that comment here: cleveland.com
don’t worry, it’s easy to get lost on the internet.
I agree with you for the most part, but the #3 and #4 slot DON’T have the exact same combinations every single year, however. Most years #3 has 156 balls, and #4 has 119 (with some variation). This year though, since the Cavs and Hornets had the same record, the Cavs had 138, and the Hornets 137.
Yeah the Cavs will take Barnes or Beal at this spot. They will also try to trade up especially with Washington looking to possibly move their pick and dupe the Cavs giving them an asset or two.
Rumors are Robinson to the Bobcats at 2
Thomas Robinson might go 2nd overall and he’s not in your 3 person draft???
Played PF for a majority of time at UK. Will struggle for awhile in the NBA before he figures it out.
I love Robinson (see my thoughts in the email post). But I don’t think the Cavs will even consider drafting him.
Well, for starters, check out Terry Pluto’s Facebook for his thoughts on Barnes. Listen to Simmons and Fords podcast from yesterday. Those are just in the last two days. I’ve read countless articles with quotes from scouts saying this is not a deep draft despite common perception.
I like MKG as much as everyone else here, but you’re giving up another mid-lottery pick. Don’t think he’s going to put us in the playoffs next year. And in case you haven’t noticed, the Cavs would still have a lot of holes that a lottery pick could fill quite well.
exactly, that’s why I think Drummond (or possibly Beal but then I think we take him) is the only guy possible for that ‘love’
there’s no other C with his physical attributes in this draft. if they decide they ‘need’ him and worry about Sacramento taking him to pair with Cousins, they might consider trading up.
that trade gets us from #24 to #11 by going from #4 to #6. to me, that is getting back up into the lottery.
J.Lamb is every bit good on offense as Barnes. Their numbers were remarkably similar.
I don’t know about that. I think it’s “risky” but I also think it’s deep. Take a look at guys #5-20 and they are of similar quality and most can achieve allstar status.
The part that everyone was hoping for was a LeBron-Wade-Bosh-Melo draft coming into the year and it is not that by any stretch.
Not at number 2 I don’t!! And btw, I posted a video where Luc talked about how suprised he was by Henson’s jump shot. But just pretend r’s only me saying these things if you want…furthermore, If Henson is finesse,, so is Davis…
Anyway this misses the major point that MKG shot 27% on jump shots his one year at UK. You wanna spend the number 2 pick on a SF/SG who can’t shoot?? Be my guest…
I listened to that podcast and I heard Ford wet himself about Drummond and Waiters and et al. Thus it’s more than just the Top 3 and then a major drop off esp since I predict the so-called “top 3” aren’t even set yet! and I said this on another blog and that is the meme that this is a not deep draft will completely flip in a bout 2 weeks as the real workout season begins. Mark my words…
Right, but if we would have lost the coin toss, we would have had the exact same 137 combinations that the Hornets had. So we still would have won. The distribution is the same, and it’s sequential. The combinations are not randomly distributed. If they were, then you could argue that perhaps losing the toss wouldn’t have mattered.
Maybe. It’s so hard to say. People who get paid a lot more than I do and know a heck of a lot more about scouting than I do routinely screw up picks and projections. So it’s always a crapshoot. All we can do is go by what we see. I’m not crazy about many players in this year’s draft. I love Davis, MKG, Beal, and Robinson. Outside of that, there are aspects to different players that I like, but I see so many fundamental flaws and drawbacks. I feel like in last year’s “weak” draft class, there was at least more certainty about the types of players you were getting.
I agree with this completely. I think this is going to be a lot like the 2008 draft. One no-doubt-about-it pick at the top, and then a bunch of guys we expect to be solid pros (hopefully there’s a couple legitimate all-stars who fall to 4 like then too).
The meme you refer to is really the opposite. Most fans and casual observers feel this is a deep draft. It’s all we’ve heard for 2 years is how deep this year’s draft class is. The only ones I’ve heard saying otherwise are the scouts.
Again, I respect anyone’s opinion who feels there are a bunch of great players and that picking at #4 is no problem because of this wealth of talent. I just personally happen to disagree with that sentiment. That’s my only point.
I actually agree with you that those top 3 players are hardly guaranteed to go 1,2, 3. The Cavaliers might end up with one of the guys I covet at #4. I just wish it was a sure thing, rather than having to hope someone ahead of us makes a different pick.
I know it’s not only you, just as it’s not only me that thinks he is Brandan Wright redux.
Anyways, Anthony Davis is not finesse. He is very willing to attack whereas I didn’t see that nearly as much from Henson.
and MKG is a SF. if we take him, then I would want an offensive minded SG with our #24 pick (Jenkins).
I don’t know about that. Kanter, Vesely, Jonas were all top picks and uncertainty was the name of the game with them.
Kemba and Jimmer certainly haven’t lived up to their scoring repetoire profiles.
and the rest were so 1-dimensional (Klay, Faried, etc.) that you may of known what you were getting, but it also limits how good they can get.
I’ll take a chance on guys like PJIII, J.Lamb, T.Ross, Waiters who have a chance at being allstars over most of who was in last year’s class any day.
as noted, I think it’s a deep draft, but risky in that there are inherent flaws in most of the players that need to be overcome.
hopefully, Grant and the FO earn their paychecks by figuring out which flaws are easiest to overcome.
Oh, trust me, I’d rather have the 10th pick in this year’s draft than last year’s. No question about that.