The Last Five Tribe Opening Days – A Review
April 5, 2012Morris Claiborne Reportedly in Cleveland Today
April 5, 2012WFNY is an operating collective, several individuals all with our own distinct views and opinions on all matters Cleveland sports. Some of us are more traditionalists, others are awaiting the next change. Some a bit more optimistic, others cautiously so if not nervous bordering on the glass-half-empty.
So with 162 games of baseball to be played, here are some fearless forecasts of what we all expect from your Cleveland Indians. Wahoo Baseball.
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1) How many at-bats will we see from Grady Sizemore?
Andrew: I’d be happy to get 350 at-bats out of Grady this season, but at some point you have to be realistic. I’m going with about 260.
Craig: I don’t know, but enough that everyone will be pleasantly surprised by his presence and productivity by the end of the year.
Jon: Seventy-five.
Scott: I want to aim higher as I think this kid deserves better, but I think the Indians brass will be fortunate if he breaks the 250 mark.
TD: I’d say 150. Tops. Do I really have to give you all my stance again? His body is broken.
2) What will be the home run total for Carlos Santana?
Andrew: I hate betting on catchers to stay healthy, but I think Santana is a guy on the rise. I’m going to go with a modest 35 home runs this year.
Craig: Thirty-five. I think that this is the year that Santana really becomes a star.
Rick: Thirty-three. I really hope that this is the leap year for Santana. The offense could use a middle-of-the-order stud and Santana is the closest thing we have.
TD: Twenty-eight. I think the real value is not Carlos’ power, but his gap-to-gap doubles-hitting ability.
3) What will be the home run total for Asdrubal Cabrera?
Craig: Seventeen. Without Orlando Cabrera around to tell him to “swing hard,” Asdrubal reverts back to his non-power form.
Jon: Thirteen. See below.
Kirk: Twenty-nine.
TD: Sixteen. I just don’t see him duplicating that power stroke ever again.
4) What will be the win total for Justin Masterson?
Craig: Nineteen. Masterson will be facing tougher match-ups as the team ace, but the Indians will give him better run support this time around.
Kirk: After he notched 12 last season, things break right for him this time around and he falls just short of 20. I’ll go with 19.
Rick: Thirteen. I have strong memories of Dennis Martinez, Charlie Nagy and other Tribe “aces” having a hard time finding wins. Masterson seems to be of the same cloth. Great individual performances that end up as “no decisions” or tough luck losses. I hope I’m wrong.
Scott: Seventeen. I think that Masterson has a chance to replicate what he provided a year ago, this time with better defense and hopefully some better luck with regard to run support. I’d love for him to sniff 20, but that’s very, very difficult to do.
5) What will be the save total for Chris Perez?
Andrew: This comes down to health. If his arm is good to go, I see no reason why he can’t be more or less the same closer as he was last year. I would think 35 saves is a reasonable number.
Craig: I find Perez to be one of the more unpredictable and enigmatic Indians in a long time. Rather than apply any kind of logic to it, I’ll just say he’ll amass the exact same total as in 2011.
Jacob: Twenty. And about 15 for Vinne Pestano. Perez Right will have an up-and-down season leading to more time as the closer for Vinnie. Are either the closer of the future? I foresee us having conversations about CC Lee, Rob Bryson and Nick Hagadone for this very role come 2013.
Jon: Thirty-seven, but they will be largely irrelevant.
Rick: Twenty-four, but if I am over-estimating any player this season, it may be Perez.
Scott: I’m with Jacob. I think we’re looking at 20. Half due to his luck catching up with him and half because I think Perez may be a valuable asset in the event that the Tribe feels the need to deal anyone come July for an additional bat.
5) More starts at third base: Jack Hannahan or Lonnie Chisenhall?
Andrew: I truly think Hannahan will get the majority of the starts this year and I think I might be okay with that. If you’re not going to be a team that scores many runs, then you better excel defensively and Hannhan is a really good defensive third baseman.
Craig: Jack Hannahan will find himself impossible to replace fielding ground balls for this Tribe pitching staff. He’ll also lead the team in web gems on Baseball Tonight.
Kirk: I think it will be really close, but I’ll give the edge to Chisenhall because I think he should be here right now. I don’t see the point to sending him down for 1-2 months after you committed to having him up here playing every day last season.
Rick: Lonnie Chisenhall, but just barely. I think the team will wait as long as possible before making the move.
6) Who, if anyone, will be dealt before the trade deadline?
Andrew: If Sizemore can get himself healthy and performing, I can easily see him being dealt to a contender looking for some outfield depth. If the Indians are way out of contention at the deadline, though, I can see them trading some pitching.
Jon: Jack Hannahan and Chris Perez. This is probably going to be an odd year for deadline deals — if the team is contending, they’re not likely to want to drop good players. On the other hand, these two guys could be seen as valuable by other teams, and if moving both helps Cleveland add more important pieces, I could see this happening.
Kirk: It better be no one — if this team’s window is this year and next and they’re selling off spare parts in July, it’s an epic failure and a franchise-altering meltdown.The moment they acquired Ubaldo Jimenez, they said they were all in for the next 2.5 seasons. They’ve yet to follow through with subsequent moves. If they want to be serious about winning the Central, they need to be acquiring talent in July, not trading it away.
Rick: Derek Lowe. If the Indians are sellers, which I don’t think they’ll be, Lowe sounds like the typical Paul Byrd/Jake Westbrook trade that the Indians love to make at the deadline.
Scott: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp. I’m a firm believer that you have to deal from a position of strength, and the Indians’ bullpen is easily their biggest playing card. With Nick Hagadone and CC Lee awaiting their shot, replacing any of these three guys should not be a big problem.
TD: Either Tony Sipp or Rafael Perez will be dealt. Nick Hagadone is a ready-made replacement. The Tribe will be out of it and someone will be looking for relief help.
7) Surprise player for 2012?
Andrew: Casey Kotchman. I don’t think he’ll be an All-Star, but I’ve heard rave reviews about his defense at first base this spring and I think he has the chance to be better offensively than most people realize. Of course, I’ve now jinxed him and he could have the worst season of his career. Sorry, Casey.
Craig: Travis Hafner. He will play well and over 125 games for the Tribe.
Jacob: Jeanmar Gomez and Michael Brantley both prove their worth as not just serviceable, borderline replacement MLB players, but they actually lock up starting 2013 jobs in the process. Gomez emerges as the second-most consistent starter and Brantley finally blossoms as a lead-off man. And for a dark horse: Matt LaPorta. Slim odds, but I still think he’ll break out and surprise sooner than later.
Kirk: I’m gong to go with Jose Lopez. I think he could provide some punch from the right side and can get some serious time at first, second or third base if he can hit. The guy hit 25 home runs and drove in 96 just three years ago, and he’s only 28-years old.
Rick: Jason Donald. It’s hard to pick a surprise player on this team as many of them have potential. But let’s face it — we also wouldn’t be surprised if some of them completely bottomed out. I’ll take Donald for his versatility and the fact that no one expects much of anything from him.
TD: Michael Brantley and Casey Kotchman. This is the year Brantly becomes the player we had hoped we’d see and I think we’ll be happy with the production, on-base percentage and glove work of Kotchman at first base.
8) Disappointing player for 2012?
Andrew: Ubaldo Jimenez is the obvious answer, but I’m going to go with Jason Kipnis. He has done nothing but impress me ever since he was brought up from Columbus, so the pessimist in me says that Kipnis is doe to have a bit of a letdown season. Reverse jinx?
Craig: Josh Tomlin.
Jacob: Can I pick the entire team? I’m a bit pessimistic this season overall. Thus, my “disappointments” will be a tie between Santana, Cabrera, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Perez.
Jon: Asdrubal Cabrera. That will be one hard season to follow. He’s never been a particularly strong OBP guy, so if the power goes, he’ll really fall back to earth.
Scott: Chris Perez. There may not be a single member of this Indians team that is more fun to root for. That said, Pure Rage’s peripheral numbers do not support successful closer totals. If he doesn’t start missing more bats — while walking fewer batters — it could be a rough start for last year’s All-Star.
9) Who will represent Cleveland at the 2012 All-Star game?
Andrew: Chris Perez has a pretty good chance to repeat. I think Choo bounces back and could make the All-Star team but the outfield is loaded in the American League. I’m going to give my official nod to Carlos Santana — he has a chance to be the best offensive catcher in the AL this season.
Jacob: Justin Masterson, and that’s it. Cabrera will enter the discussion by default. That said, the Tigers will have at least four and the Royals could have to or three representatives.
Jon: Carlos Santana. But never underestimate the power of saves, so we’ll hedge this bet with Chris Perez.
Kirk: I think Cabrera, Choo, Santana, Masterson and Chris Perez all have a chance, but put me down for Asdrubal and Carlos.
Scott: Carlos Santana would have to out-hit Mike Napoli, Matt Weiters, Joe Mauer and Jesus Montero. While he will be the team’s primary offensive weapon, I’m going to say he gets snubbed and go with Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera.
10) And the final win total and place in the AL Central
Andrew: I’mn not as optimistic as some are; it just feels like so many things have to go right for them to reach their potential. I am going to say the Indians will win 75 games and finish third in the AL Central.
Craig: Eighty-three wins and second place in the AL Central.
Jacob: Between 70-74 wins and a fourth-place finish within the division. The Tigers will win 94 games. The Royals and Twins will finish between Detroit and Cleveland.
Jon: Eighty-three wins and second place in the AL Central. The Tigers should win the division, and that’s where this prediction comes from, but let’s not forget that a lot of things can happen during a long season. If either Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder misses much time — be it a strained muscle or myocardial infarction — this division starts to look a lot more winnable.
Kirk: I’m an optimist, so I’m saying 92 wins and the second Wild Card spot after winning a one-game playoff against the Texas Rangers.
Rick: I’m with Craig. Eighty-three wins and a second-place finish.
Scott: They’re going to end up an even 81-81. These guys will play hard and win a lot of baseball games, but the injury bug will undoubtedly creep up at some point during the season. Unfortunately, they’ll finish — once again — in second place, just outside of the second Wild Card slot.
TD: They’ll win 75 games and finish in third place. I just see too many “What Ifs” on this team. Everything has to go right to contend — is that really going to happen again?
44 Comments
I must say that I love number 8
This:
“Kirk: It better be no one — if this team’s window is this year and next and they’re selling off spare parts in July, it’s an epic failure and a franchise-altering meltdown.The moment they acquired Ubaldo Jimenez, they said they were all in for the next 2.5 seasons. They’ve yet to follow through with subsequent moves. If they want to be serious about winning the Central, they need to be acquiring talent in July, not trading it away.”
I’m also very nervous that Josh Tomlin is Righty Jeremy Sowers.
I’m going to play along and try to answer before reading your responses:
1. 250 – figure he comes back with 120 games left and plays in 60 of them.
2. 41 – for obvious reasons. But, nearly as important will be the 50 doubles he hits.
3. 13 – for obvious reasons. but, he’ll match Santana with 50 doubles and we’ll still be happy. See 2009.
4. Ah, Masterson. Let’s go with 18 wins and 8 losses.
5A. 54 – for obvious reasons. actually 34, but I was on a roll 🙂
5B. Hannahan – the GB% pitchers, the need to win now. If he can just hit well enough to not warrant constant beratement there, then he will stick for most of the year.
6. Kotchman for the next Carlos Santana prospect while we move Hannahan to 1B and open up 3B for Chisenhall (ok, not really)
7. Derek Lowe – just a steady force who ends up pitching really well and winning 15 games for us.
8. Shelley Duncan – just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it won’t be true.
9. Santana and Masterson – I just hope they can play as a battery
10. You ask this last week and I say 88 games and 2nd place. But, you ask this on Opening Day and I can’t say less than 91 wins. And, I think 91 wins will be good enough to win our division.
I don’t “get” the pessimism with this team this year.
Last year’s team won 80 games. Without Shin-Soo Choo for a good chunk of the year, and he was largely unproductive as well. They did it while giving extended playing time to Ezequiel Carerra, Austin Kearns and Orlando Cabrera.
I look at this roster, and they look to be improved at every single position. Some of them just by virtue of having another year of experience (Kipnis, Santana, Masterson, Brantley). Kotchman is surely an upgrade over 2011’s Matt LaPorta. The rotation is better in every spot. And the bullpen is potentially the best in baseball. Heck, even their depth will be better, now that AAA guys like Barnes, Chisenhall, Phelps and Zeke all have another year of seasoning and another year to get better.
The Indians, while not signing the likes of Prince Fielder, don’t have a single position where I’d say “clearly they’re worse now than they were last year”. You might argue about left field, but that position was a mess last year too. If you consider Choo and Fukudome as the outfielder 1, Brantley as oufielder 2… that third position was manned by a host of chumps last year, and I’ll take Duncan/Cunningham/Whoever ends up getting called up from AAA over that mess. I get that people wanted “more” out of the off-season, but the Indians are in a fine position.
86 wins is my prediction. They’ll be contending for the Central, but unless things break their way, the Tigers should win.
guess I’m not nearly as crazy optimistic as I thought comparatively at least.
Just for kicks:
170 ABs for Grady.
29 HRs for Santana.
22 HRs for Asdrubal.
16 Ws for Masterson.
35 Saves for CPerez.
Chisenhall with more starts: About 85 to 65 (with Donald or others taking a handful early in the year).
Nobody will be dealt that matters, unless in a package for a RH bat they trade someone like Donald.
Brantley as the surprise player – 90Rs, high OBP, 25 SBs, solid glove. Or since everyone is down on Tomlin and Jimenez, I’ll say they’ll both do better than they did last year.
Perez as the disappointment, though he’ll retain the job Bob Wickman style and because the Indians typically have their best relievers not be their closers.
A lot of people will have shots at an All-Star slot, but I’m going to go with Santana and Asdrubal, and the latter due to no other real options in the AL
86-89 Wins and a tight race with the Tigers. I predict that the Tigers will disappoint due to a key injury and a staff that’s weak behind Verlander and Fister.
Depending on the health and the performance of the rest of the staff when/if he shows up, I could see us dealing Fausto/Rob to someone for a decent bat.
Can I bump up all my estimates after an amazing 1/2 of a 1st inning by Masterson while donning my favorite tribe uni?
Totally forgot to include Shelly Duncan as a surprise.
2nd inning and already a trip to the mound for the Jays pitching coach. going well so far.
and that trip didn’t yield the results they were looking for:
4-0 Tribe!!!!
after a Brantley hit, the Jays put somebody up in the bullpen. yeah, still the 2nd inning 🙂
and Jack Hannahan continuing to dominate April 🙂
Chris Perez has got to go.
I don’t understand forcing the issue with a closer at all.
Unreal.
Unbelievable… if the Indians lose, this loss is on Acta. Masterson was cruising, you don’t force in the closer just because you’re up by 3 @#$# runs in the 9th inning. Masterson can go one more inning at 99 pitches. Man that’s idiotic.
It was nice of Chris to show up for Easter dinner, clog up the toilet by trying to flush the decorated eggs, yell at the little kids, and puke on the dining room table. Thanks for coming.
Like x 100
Coaching Error #2… huge bounce on the infield chopper and you don’t send the runner? Even with the infield in he could have crossed home plate standing up. Wow. I always think of the first game as a microcosm of the season, so it’s adding to my frustration and worry.
Before everyone freaks out about C Perez(and they rightfully should), I want everyone to know that Aaron Cunningham made one of the worst throws that I have ever seen that could have prevented the tying run. Although, Perez should have been traded months ago. Man do I want him OUT
well, Carlos Santana at least showed that he has been wokring at his defense. Several nice stops on what would have been wild pitches last year.
here we go. Hannahan owns April.
or not.
SP goes 8IP, masterpiece
and we still end up taxing our bullpen. Brilliant!
Do you let Perez close another game for this team?
I’d go less than 20 on the Perez… clearly wasn’t ready/in shape. Pestano takes over and doesn’t give up the role within a couple weeks (if we even get another shot at a save in the next few weeks). Usually I’m a really optimistic Tribe fan… but I’m just not this year.
Since when does one blown save turn a lock down closer into Joe Borowski? Stop freaking out everyone.
Exactly what I was thinking upon coming back in from yard work to find Tony Sipp pitching in the 13th. Ridiculous.
In pressure situations, WHY do people named Asdrubal swing at the first pitch?
Acta over-manages the pitchers and under-manages the hitters.
Manny, it’s called a TAKE sign. Read up on it.
Is it over yet sheesh? 161 more to go I can’t wait!!!
Easy man they don’t play tomorrow let ’em pitch their arms off!
Since when has Perez been considered a lock down closer? He is borowski with a couple mph more
Hypno_Toad > his numbers are actually a spitting image of JB’s
Like x 101. Perez was God-awful, but he never should have been in the game.
No. Never. He should be fired right now while being flogged with barbed wire as we point and laugh.
#overreaction
# jackhateshashtag
He has to get healthy. This one is on the coaching staff that didn’t go to Perez this last week and say “you’re only hitting 90, we need to get you another week of spring training under your belt”
But if you bring him up to the bigs, you put him in in that situation. A 3 run lead should have been safe with Wheeler on the mound. You don’t tax Masterson’s arm any more in the just the first game of the season when you’re sitting on a 97% win expectancy.
If you saw the Opening Game…The Season’s NOW Over!
Don’t Hold Your Breath For Next Year!
Came to this page and was met with a banner ad featuring one Mariano Rivera…poetic
When did he over-manage the pitchers?
And I think you let a veteran hitter like Cabrera take his own approach there. Yeah, he definitely should have made Perez, who had yet to find the plate at that point, throw him a strike first, but if you’re micromanaging your veterans approaches at the plate, I think you’re going to eventually alienate a lot of the players.
2011 Perez: 4-7 ERA: 3.32, 36 saves in 40 opps. 39/26 K/BB
2007 Borowski 4-5 with a 5.04 ERA, 45 saves in 53 opps.
58/17 K/BB
You know what, I’ve never sat down and actually looked at their stats before but that’s eye opening. Their stats are pretty similar. I guess Perez isn’t as great as he seemed.
Say it aint so Rage…..
His peripheries are terrible. As is his fastball that has lost four to five miles and has no movement. Sample sizes being what they are and all, it is never a good sign when your closer blows a three run lead in the first game of the season.
Don’t mind me, I’m just mad.
Leland yanked Verlander after 8 and the same thing happened.
70 wins if they’re lucky