Indians 9 Mariners 8: Showing some grit on the road!
April 18, 2012Cabot: Matt Kalil and Browns to Hold Private Workout
April 18, 2012The Cleveland Browns rattled off four wins to end a tumultuous 2009 season. Prior to the four wins the Browns only other win was one of the least entertaining football games I’ve ever watched in my NFL-watching history as the Browns beat the Bills 6-3 in some ridiculous wind. Still, the Browns seemed headed in the right direction as they beat the Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars by pounding the ball and riding Jerome Harrison and Josh Cribbs. Mangini kept his job and when the schedule for 2010 came out, Browns fans started counting up wins and losses. Surely the Browns would be able to handle an easy early schedule featuring the Buccaneers who went 3-13 in 2009 and Chiefs who went 4-14.
The Browns came out and dropped both of those first two games by five total points and all of a sudden even the most modest of expectations for the Browns were dashed completely and totally. You can call WFNY a homer site if you want because most of our writers took the over when the line came out at 5.5. At the same time, to a man, our expectations of over were all for 6 wins. That’s not important though. What’s important is that the Browns lost two of the games that many (including many at this site) had counted up as Ws prior to the season.
Remembering back, the Browns lost their first three to Tampa, KC, and Baltimore before beating the Bengals with Seneca Wallace and Peyton Hillis even as the Browns gave up 222 yards receiving to Terrell Owens. The Browns lost to the Falcons and Steelers before they shocked the world. The Browns beat the Saints and Patriots by double digits in back-to-back games (with a bye week in between.) Then the Browns had the Jets on the edge of a cliff before eventually succumbing to self-inflicted wounds in overtime. The Browns won two more games before dropping four straight to end the year.
Five wins in the books. Anyone who took the over is thought to be dumb. Forget that the random path that took the Browns to those five wins was a unique path. Forget it all, because the Browns have another hard schedule coming up and they didn’t get Robert Griffin III or Pierre Garcon of even Josh Morgan. They bid farewell to Peyton Hillis too.
LOSS – Sun., Sept. 9 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – FOX 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Sept. 16 at Cincinnati Bengals – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Sept. 23 BUFFALO BILLS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Thur., Sept. 27 at Baltimore Ravens – NFLN 8:20 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Oct. 7 at New York Giants – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Oct. 14 CINCINNATI BENGALS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Oct. 21 at Indianapolis Colts – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Oct. 28 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Nov. 4 BALTIMORE RAVENS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
Sun., Nov. 11 BYE WEEK
LOSS – Sun., Nov. 18 at Dallas Cowboys – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Nov. 25 PITTSBURGH STEELERS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Dec. 2 at Oakland Raiders – CBS 4:15 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Dec. 9 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – CBS 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Dec. 16 WASHINGTON REDSKINS – FOX 1:00 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Dec. 23 at Denver Broncos – CBS 4:05 p.m.
LOSS – Sun., Dec. 30 at Pittsburgh Steelers – CBS 1:00 p.m.
0-16 here we come. Right?
Look, I can’t sit here and tell you that I am confident in the Browns with this schedule. There are more questions than answers for the team this year. I know this because they’re the team that I follow most closely. You don’t think there are plenty of questions in those other cities? The Cowboys went 8-8 last year including losses to the Arizona Cardinals and two losses to the Eagles. Speaking of the Eagles, they went 8-8, but they were woeful following a loss to the Seahawks that left them 4-8 on December 1st.
That same Seahawks team wasn’t able to get Marshawn Lynch on the field to face the Browns and then lost 6-3. After losing to the Browns, the Seahawks (with Lynch back in the lineup) followed that up with losses to the Bengals and Cowboys before beating the Ravens 22-17. Nobody could have predicted that four game stretch.
The point here is that yes the Browns’ schedule looks tough. The Browns look overmatched to us because our memories of last season are of Ls and not Ws. But let’s not be overly simplistic here. The Browns are a young team that is supposed to be getting better not worse. Yes, it feels very scary right now as the Browns haven’t added any free agents other than keeping pieces of the same team that disappointed last year. Even if you are scared, at least admit that you willingly have blinders on and you’re not really thinking about every other team on the schedule in detail.
Have the Steelers gotten better or worse? Will Mike Wallace be on the team? How about the Bengals who swapped out Benjarvus Green-Ellis for Cedric Benson? Did that make them better? The Buffalo Bills added the biggest free agent to their defense, but let’s not forget that even though I like Ryan Fitzpatrick as a QB, he did have eight games last year with multiple interceptions. Any team can lose when the QB gives the ball away two or more times in a game.
Point being that while it is possible for the Browns to go 0-13 to start the year, it is silly to say it. It is also silly to look any deeper than to say that it is a tough schedule. The Browns will probably lose more than they win. They will probably surprise everyone with a victory they shouldn’t get. They’ll probably surprise everyone with a loss that should be a win.
Oh wait. Is that even possible when they’re supposed to lose every game?
59 Comments
Completely agree that having a coach in Eric Mangini who could game-plan a win against any team in the league even with a JV roster made pre-season predictions like this especially futile. Yet somehow with Pat Shurmur things seem different.
Last season when folks were calling the Browns “the worst 3-3 team in NFL history,” I wrote that “the only question left is whether they’ll manage to equal the 5-11
record of the last two seasons, because it’s a virtual certainty that
they won’t surpass it.” And shucks, it really wasn’t too hard to see that at that point.
You’re right that pre-season predictions are different, but I wonder how different. One thing I’ve been thinking in the wake of this “0-16” talk is that it all makes it seem especially unlikely that they’ll use any of the top three picks to draft Tannehill or Weeden.
Craig, you don’t think they’ll lose every game?
You homer.
The real question is when are the Browns going to start having a winning record within their own division. Unfortunately, it will be very hard (almost impossible) to get to the playoffs if they can’t get to 3-3 at the very minimum.
Will be hard to get to that mark again this year.
Browns will be fine. Week 1 they play the Eagles. Thats all they need to worry about. This whole predicting the schedule is outragous. Play who you play and prepare week to week.
Two things:
First, Craig, you ask if the Steelers have gotten better or worse but look, while yes they are worse they are still way better than the Browns though. They could lose half their offense and still be better. Does not mean the Browns can’t beat them, just makes it unlikely.
Second, yes its futile to predict wins and loses. But its not futile to say that every team on our schedule (sans maybe the Colts) is more talented than the Bronwns. Most teams are far more talented than the Browns. That is not a good thing.
Therefore, while its wrong to say ‘this game is a win and this game is a loss’ its not wrong to say that its unlikely the Browns can win more than 5 games.
I think after looking at this schedule, the Browns should definitely stay away from QB in the first round this year and expect to be in good position to get the top rated qb next year. Hopefully after this year there won’t be a house cleaning…
What do you mean by ‘fine?’ Like, being able to compete for the playoffs? Yes, the team has to focus on the first game, and thats it. But the fans don’t.
My thoughts exactly to a T. Let’s not worry about wins & losses until training camp at the very least. Let’s get ready for the Lions in August & go from there.
I hear Matt Barkley hired a Cleveland realtor as of about 7:30 last night…
And thus, good sir, you have accurately and completely encapsulated what “hope” looks like for Cleveland fans.
I 100% agree with Frowns here. The combination of the lack of talent AND an overwhelmed head coach have me very down on the Browns. I just don’t see how we will win more than 3-4 games. Which is just downright depressing for Year 3 of the Holmgren “rebuild” plan.
That said, the optimist in me wants to believe that the Defense will continue to grow and that adding offensive pieces like TRich and (someone like) Kendall Wright could jump start the Holmgren era (despite Colt). But it is just so hard to have faith in the Holmgren regime given the string of bad decisions it has made (waffling on Mangini, hiring Shurmur, not hiring on OC, the odd RGIII failure and subsequent media airing by Holmgren, investing in Colt, etc.).
I don’t care who they’re playing and when. They better win more games this year or the pitchforks will be out.
That’s my hope for this season. I hope the Browns win enough to keep the front office and coaching staff from getting themselves fired. If it takes you 4 seasons to win 16 games, you’re doing it wrong…rebuild or not. Just to accomplish this feat, they need to win 7 games this year.
Wins…that’s all that matters. Not strength of schedule…just wins (and wins against the division).
Somebody queue up the GLC song….
I agree that Shurmur had a very poor first season as a head coach. His story will be told by the bye week this year in all likelihood. The Browns built in some excuses for him last year by making major mistakes like not hiring an offensive coordinator.
Love or hate the Brad Childress hiring, it definitively does one thing. It takes one of the defenses of an overwhelmed rookie head coach the year prior and throws it completely out the window for 2012.
Things are supposed to change year over year. If that same overwhelmed head coach is still overwhelmed this year with Childress helping scheme the offense, then he will be shown the door, I think. You can’t have a team with this much experience in the coordinator spots lay an egg from a coaching standpoint this year.
the Bills also have seemingly gotten worse on OL from last year. not sure how that is possible (draft can change that). their DL got a bit tougher though 🙂
Does anyone think we have less talent on the team today than right before Heckert was hired?
we went from one of the older groups in the NFL to one of the younger ones. we have a bunch of draft picks that are playing. the high picks seem to be corps building type pieces. we also focused on defense the first 2 drafts, and look at that, the defense is ahead of the offense.
let’s just at least wait until after the draft before completely tearing the team apart. I hear we might have a couple picks in it 🙂
I sure hope you are right. I liked Jauron last year. Maybe Childress can help in a similar way.
Your statement is based on the assumed premise that being young is good. I am open to the possibility that that may in fact be true, but am not 100% certain it is.
For example, when I think of teams like the Patriots and Steelers, who have achieved long-term success, I see teams that combine a handful of young players with a strong core of veterans. Neither team ever executed a complete rebuild starting only with young players (like the Browns are trying). Rather, they brought in a “system” first, and continue to constantly refresh that “system” by having the proper mix of veterans (who buy in) and young guys (who are willing to learn).
One of the reasons I am a Mangini guy is that he is the only Browns coach that ever seemed to understand that balance. H&H seem to just think going young will solve everything. I hope they are right, but I am not sure what model of success they are following.
Maybe it’s just me but I am not very confident that Childress will do that much good. Just listing to his former players like Dustin Fox talk about how he is a horrible coach does not inspire confidence. I know he was talking about him as a head coach but still.
Let me put it this way: If we are counting on Brad Childress to be the answer to most of our offensive woes and coaching problems then thats not a good thing.
The thing that frustrates me to no end, is the lack of simple coaching that I see time and time again. Gotta get better at clock management at the end of the half (several times we went in with timeouts left when the other team ran out the clock). Make the team punt the ball, anything can happen. I should not get mad at the coach during the season. He needs to put the players in the right situations for them to be successful.
We’ll have a better sense of what this team will be after the draft. My guess is our draft will look something like this:
1a Trich RB (because we’ll be looking for instant offense regardless of QB)
1b K. Wright WR (or Floyd)
2 M. Adams OT (or some other RT)
3 B. Wagner OLB (or some other LB)
4a C. Minnifield CB (or some other DB)
Players we get after that aren’t likely to see much playing time this year. So our depth chart might look like this;
QB: Colt, Seneca
RB: Trich, Jackson
TE: (good to go)
WR: Little, Wright, MoMass, Cribbs, Norwood
OT: Thomas, Adams
G: Pinkston, Lavaua
C: Mack
DT: Rubin, Taylor, Sheafering
DE: Sheard, Rucker, Benard, Parker
SOLB: Gocong
MLB: DQ, Maiva
WOLB: Fujita/Wagner
S: Ward, Young/S. Brown
CB: Haden, S. Brown/Minnifield, Patterson
Could be the youngest team in the NFL with an inexperienced head coach and the 3rd toughest schedule. Our young players would have to get good in a hurry for us to see more wins than last year. Could be ugly.
Does Barkley have another year of eligibility or is he forced to come out in 2013?
Romeo Crennel is the perfect example. Love him as a coordinator… Head coach? oof.
True… But Romeo’s players respect him because, at least as a coordinatior, he is smart and treats his players with respect and is a great guy and great coach. Players talk about that all the time.
But with Chilly? None of that. Maybe he can design good plays and schemes – thats a start. But if your players dont respect you as a coach and as a man then that no scheme will do much.
Lyndall, it’s hard to predict the Browns win total? Really? How bout 4-5 wins like it has been for every year seemingly since they came back? Seriously, you use useless ancedotal evidence when just using an average of the last 5 years will tell us all we need to know! Another 4-12 season is by far the most likely outcome. That was not hard…also appreciate the inherent arrogance you have that allows you to mock nfl.com about their reasonable supposition that the browns could realistically be 0-13. It seems also realistic that they might now more than you about pro football. They’re paid for their expertise, after all…
I think Jauron has done an admirable job considering the offense has not made his job any easier. The one complaint is that it would be nice to get a few TOs to help setup that anemic offense.
Hate to say it but when I look at it I could see them going 4-12, I hope I’m wrong.
Strongsville
it’s based on the assumption that young players have a better chance at improving than older players.
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Mangini completely pushed the ledger to the veteran side. Not sure he obtained balance.
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Holmgren and company definitely brought in a system. They brought in some of their own WCO-tree guys (Jake, Seneca, Dmitri, Gocong, Fujita) and they have focused on the draft to build the true corps.
All predicated on drafting well. Let’s hope we do.
our young guys might not know any better than to win some games 🙂
switch out Sanu for KWright, Osemele for Adams, R.Brooks for Minnifield and find a FS to challenge late in the draft (C.Sensabaugh?) and I like the look of that roster to be honest.
Agree on the importance of drafting well. That is essential to H&H model. My concern is they have shifted too much to the young side and that, realistically, the young talent is not all that good (outside of 5-7 guys).
While young guys have a better chance than old guys of improving, they also have a better chance of not panning out. Older guys generally have the advantage of less uncertainty – you know what they are. As such, if you add them strategically you can create a baseline of talent that ensures competitiveness while young guys develop.
H&H, in my opinion, are too heavily invested in their own young guys. For every Haden, Ward, or Little, there is a dud like Hardesty, McCoy or Marecic.
The local paper here in PA is saying that the “Eagles have a patsy in week 1 with the Browns.” That right there is enough to fire me up. I cannot wait until the day when people stop saying things like that, however true they might currently be. If nothing else, I think the Browns do have some emotional advantage this year being the little brother expected to lose every game. I just hope the coaching staff is up to drawing it out of the players.
I’m all for the Browns playing Giant Killer (and Eagle Killer, and Raven Killer, and Steeler Killer, and . . . ) this year. Every week.
Using a team’s record from previous years is THE most useless anectodal evidence you can offer for how a team will do this year. In fact, that would be the definition of “anectodal.”
let’s see though:
Haden, Ward, Taylor, Sheard – all drafted 1st or early 2nd
Little, Hardesty – late 2nd rounders
McCoy, Marecic, Pinkston, Lauvao, Hagg, Skrine, Cameron – all later round picks.
So, Heckert seems to be hitting high and doing some hit/miss later. This is what the good drafters do.
I haven’t given up hope on Marecic or Cameron. FBs tend to be a harder position to learn than is given credit to it. And we all knew going in that Cameron was a project.
Pinkston/Lauvao have a put-up or shut-up year coming on them. As does Colt.
anything we get from Hagg/Skrine is a bonus as they provided some nice flashes last year and hopefully can build on it.
Despite your apparent attacks on me, I’ll address this.
I’ve discussed frequently that there is no such thing as an overnight turnaround in the NFL. It appears as if there is one because a 4-6 win team will finally put it all together and win 10 games or something like the Bengals did last year or the 49ers and Texans did. But really it is an overnight change in record, but the roster and the experience and chemistry on the team was building over the course of time before getting over the hump.
Yeah, it’s hard to predict. The team that Mangini coached in 2009 is nothing like the team that will open the 2012 season this year. Nothing like it.
Huh? Excuse me? We have lost to the Steelers how many years in a row? Using that record is useless?
What are you talking about?
I’m talking about “useless anecdotal evidence” (the exact phrase offered in the comment to which I was responding). See above. It ain’t that hard.
I expect us to win some games that we aren’t supposed to, especially since most other teams are circling us as a win on their schedule. We should be a better team than last year, but that brutal schedule could conceal it. Like the Cavs, the season will be worth watching if only to see the improvement of our young team.
Except for Trich, I don’t know which specific players we might target. Just guessing based on interest we’ve shown and obvious holes in our depth chart. Heckert could come up with a twist we don’t expect like a guard in the 2nd round, or waiting until round 3 for a WR. As long as we get good football players, it’ll work out.
Oh, I read it. I also read what you said: you are seriously suggesting that last year’s wins and losses “is THE most useless anecdotal evidence” there is. That’s crazy talk.
Come on, don’t lose your credibility here. How we did last year is the writing on the wall for this year. Hell, we may even be WORSE, considering we lost a major offensive play maker, we lack a RT or LG, and we have to rely on rookies for major skill positions.
Huh? San Franciso 49ers hardly made any roster changes from 2010 to 2011. You know what change they did make? They added a competent head coach. All of a sudden they are in the playoffs.
Craig, it really can be that simple. Don’t over complicate the matter to make anyone sound smart. A Ferrari looks great in a parking lot, but without the right key it’ll sit there forever.
I believe Craig’s point is that same Ferrari will sit forever without the engine as well (to use your metaphor). You have to build the engine before the key will work.
The premise presented (not by me) was that anecdotal evidence is useless to predict performance. I don’t necessarily agree, as anecdotal and circumstantial has some modicum of usefulness.
Accepting the premise as true, however, (i.e., that anecdotal evidence is useless) I maintain that a team’s past record is the most useless anecdotal evidence to predict future performance. The team, and the many anecdotal circumstances surrounding it, are not the same this year as in other years. Otherwise, one could say, based on the last few years, that the Browns will never again beat the Steelers or win a game in their division. Obviously, neither is true.
My point is essentially that it’s foolish to berate someone for employing anecdotal evidence if the only thing offered in response is worse anecdotal evidence. That is all.
The the Niners have an engine? They certainly seemed like it in 2011. But, in 2010 I don’t think anyone thought they even had a 95 Ford Escort.
They added the right piece and the puzzle worked. Sometimes its just that easy.
No, you’re going way off-base. No one said that they will NEVER beat them; just that it is less likely to happen now, given how poor our team performed and how little our FO has done to fix it. That’s the point.
If we have lost to a team last year twice and then the team that faced that team is effectively the same, if not a little crappier, then the evidence of last year is very useful to predict this year’s results.
This would not be the case if they made a G.D. move this off-season to improve their roster. They sat on their laurels when they should have been out looking for talent to replace the monstrosity of holes in our offense.
No, you’re going way off-base. No one said that they will NEVER beat them; just that it is less likely to happen now, given how poor our team performed and how little our FO has done to fix it. That’s the point.
If we have lost to a team last year twice and then the team that faced that team is effectively the same, if not a little crappier, then the evidence of last year is very useful to predict this year’s results.
This would not be the case if they made a G.D. move this off-season to improve their roster. They sat on their laurels when they should have been out looking for talent to replace the monstrosity of holes in our offense.
No, you’re going way off-base. No one said that they will NEVER beat them; just that it is less likely to happen now, given how poor our team performed and how little our FO has done to fix it. That’s the point.
If we have lost to a team last year twice and then the team that faced that team is effectively the same, if not a little crappier, then the evidence of last year is very useful to predict this year’s results.
This would not be the case if they made a G.D. move this off-season to improve their roster. They sat on their laurels when they should have been out looking for talent to replace the monstrosity of holes in our offense.
Okay. We’ve moved far afield from my original point. No problem.
Ok, let’s delve deeper then:
Goldson and Bowman stepped up huge last year. Combined with newcomers Whitner and Rogers and their secondary made a HUGE jump.
made their offense simple as possible and relied on their defense to win games. Gore stayed relatively healthy.
call me INSANE, but this defense has the potential to be elite and keep the browns in every game this year. theres no way theyll win less than 4 games.
The Redskins practically practice in my backyard. It would be sweet to get a win against them in the December cold, the part of the year they usually tank
That great steelers offense couldn’t score more than 14 in a game aganst our browns… having them half as good would probably mean they don’t score more than 7 or 6…