While We’re Waiting… More Tannehill suggestions, tanking at another level and no off season for Pinkston
April 2, 2012Mike Florio on the Dan Patrick Show: “Richardson not a top 15 pick”
April 2, 2012Yesterday it was reported that the Indians came to terms on a two-year extension with SS Asdrubal Cabrera, keeping him with the club through the 2014 season. The deal is reportedly worth $16.5 million for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Cabrera was already signed to a $4.55 million deal for 2012, and all signs indicate that that figure is unchanged in the new contract.
Is this a good deal for the team? Why is the extension so short? What is Asdrubal really worth anyway?
Perhaps we should start by trying to answer that last question first. What is he worth? Well, let’s grab as much data as we can. I combined all of Asdrubal’s WAR figures from both Fangraphs and Baseball reference, averaged them together, then came up with a per-145 game figure to represent a typical season.
After crunching all those numbers, I came up with a figure of 2.8 wins above replacement. Not bad, but not earth-shatteringly good either. That sounds sort of like Cabrera to me.
Since Cabrera is about to hit his offensive prime and the advanced defensive metrics have always dinged him for his range a bit more than I think is fair*, I’m going to call him a 3-WAR player going forward. On the open market, 1 WAR is costing teams about $4 million, which means that a 3-WAR player could expect a contract that would pay him roughly $12 million per year.
*Cabrera was listed as the WORST defensive shortstop in the major leagues in 2011 according to UZR by almost 4 runs. In 2010 he was also at the bottom of MLB, costing his team 20 runs (or two full wins) compared to the “average” defensive SS. I can acknowledge that his range is not what it should be, but I find it hard to believe that his glove has cost the team almost 40 runs over the last two years compared to Erick Aybar. I don’t believe he’s a defensive asset, but I really don’t think he’s the liability that some of the advanced metrics would have you believe.
Of course, that’s a misleading approach to take in this instance. The $4 million number is really only applicable to free agents—that limited pool of players that, each season, who are allowed to have everyone bid on them. That’s obviously not the case with Asdrubal. Before signing the extension, Cabrera was already under club control through the 2013 season, so this contract really only bought out one year of his free agency.
A rule of thumb that we might use in this instance is the 40/60/80 rule. Generally speaking, arbitration-eligible players who sign long-term deals get paid approximately 40% of their free-agent value in the first year of arbitration-eligibility, 60% in their second year, and 80% in year three. No matter how much of the $16.5 million gets paid to him in 2013, it’s hard to believe that this deal isn’t particularly team friendly—after all, 80% of Asdrubal’s market value is still over $9 million. It’s not out of the question to believe that on the open market, Cabrera would’ve gotten $12 million per season or more. With this contract, the Indians will be getting him for the next three years for only $21 million, which seems like quite a deal for the team.
The other major question raised by the contract has to do with the length—or lack thereof. Typically, Shapiro and Antonetti have preferred to buy out a player much earlier in the game and, in return for the additional risk to the club for taking the gamble on a young, unproven kid, they’d buy out more free agency years at a discounted rate on the back end of the deal.* This one’s a bit different. First of all, Asdrubal has already been arbitration-eligible twice in his career, meaning he’s basically played four full(ish) seasons in the Majors before the team saw fit to extend him. For reference, Grady got his contract after only one full season in the Bigs.
*This was the approach the front office (in)famously took with Grady and Fausto. Maybe they’ve learned a lesson? I actually don’t believe that—they’d still do the Grady and Fausto deals today if given the chance. We just don’t have any players who are worth the risk those two were. You pays your dime, you takes your chances, etc.
But second, the extension really only adds one year of club control, since Asdrubal couln’t have filed for free agency until after the 2013 season. In many ways, this is the opposite of the sort of move that made Shapiro famous: rather than taking a big gamble on a young talent, you take a small gamble on a middling one.
Perhaps you think it’s not fair to call Asdrubal a “middling” talent. After all, he did hit 25 HR last season and he won’t turn 27 until November, so there’s certainly room for him to get even better. But let’s be clear: his defense is suspect at best, and until last season, he’d never given us reason to believe he could be a slugger. Prior to 2011, Cabrera had never had a full-season slugging percentage over .450; then, last season he leads the team in HR? Let’s just say I’d take the under on that 25 HR line for 2012.
There is reason to believe, however, that this shorter term is beneficial to both sides. From the Indians’ perspective, there’s obviously far less risk associated with a shorter deal than a longer one: less time for the player to get hurt, to eat excessively, to fall off a cliff or to eat too much. Heck, it even means he’ll have less time to carb-load. Furthermore, much has been made of the Tribe’s depth at SS throughout their minor league system. Not only is 2011 first-round pick Fransisco Lindor outperforming (already obscenely high) expectations, but as Terry Pluto pointed out yesterday, there’s also Tony Wolters, Dorssys Paulino and Ronny Rodriguez—any of whom might be able to eventually fill-in at SS.
And from Cabrera’s perspective? Well, he’s only relinquishing one year of free agency, so he’ll still hit open market before he’s 30. Furthermore, there happens to be a certain SS in pinstripes who will likely be retiring after that 2014 season. Cabrera might just want to be aligning himself for the biggest possible payday of all. Either way, by locking in now for the next three seasons, he’ll have the comfort of knowing that his paycheck won’t be subject to a down season or a career threatening injury. Or a delicious plate of spaghetti and meatballs.
All told, this seems like a good deal for both sides. The team gets an extra year of Cabrera and a potential bridge to the next big thing in Cleveland for less than he’d likely make on the free agent market, while Cabrera gets the security of never having to worry about money ever again.
Cholesterol though? He probably still has to worry about that.
15 Comments
Wish it was Choo getting the extension, but I’m ok with this.
we have Asdrubel for 1 more year than we could have had. positive news.
Just wish it had one more club year option but still a pretty nice deal. It’s almost like not giving him a deal except now we have that extra year were we can trade him to a contender as we go back into rebuild mode in 2014.
Finally we’re keeping a good player; how many did we see participate in the various exoduses of this team? It feels good to keep one in the fold who was already looking like Red Sox material. Good for us.
While I think Cabrera is overrated, I’m glad this got done. It’s also a very team friendly deal so if we fall out of the gate this year or next, we could still flip him for something (assuming he produces).
LOL so these are good for another two years? hopefully the 2013 version has hair…
First of all, people really need to stop using this UZR garbage. I like stats as much as the nxt guy, but any defensive statistic that says Jhonny Peralta was the 4th best defensive SS last year loses all credibility.
This was a good signing for sure. It may only truly be a 1-year extension but it gives Lindor that extra year to be groomed as the heir apparent. Hopefully this team is still competitve as the contract winds down. And when he becomes a FA, they can offer him arbitration, he can decline and we can get a draft pick or two when he signs with the Yanks.
(And a small correction, Santana led the team in HR’s last year, not Cabrera.)
I like this for another reason. While this team is supposedly in its brief contention window, it doesn’t have a lot of veteran leadership. The veteran leaders from ’07 – CC, Grady, Hafner – are all gone or always hurt. Last year when the Tribe was hot it just looked like Astrubal’s team, like he was the guy getting big hits and the emotional leader. This is a big pay raise for him and will hopefully keep him team-focused for a while longer. You don’t need your best player on a young team contract-focused.
UZR (and most of the advanced statistical defense stats) require more than one year to fairly rate a player. Most people say you need three years, though I’ve heard as many as five. Just like a guy can have a good April/May at the plate, a guy can have a seemingly good UZR year just thanks to the sample size.
Advanced d stats still are somewhat lacking, but they shouldn’t be completely discounted especially if you see trends that coincide with empirical observation.
My take on ACab: ridiculously quick hands, a decent arm, but bad range. If he can get to the ball, he can make a great play on it. Problem is, you can’t make a play if you can’t get there.
I like stats! Unless of course they disagree with my preconcieved notions. Then the stat sucks. Peralta gets a lot of grief, but the guy had great hands and a strong arm. There’s a reason multiple managers have played him at short now.
Also, I’m not sure where Jon is getting his 2010 data from. UZR has Cabrera at about -10 per season, not -20.
to be fair, there isn’t really a defensive metric that stat-heads agree on yet. it’s tougher to judge than the offensive ones.
Problem is all the defensive metrics say pretty much the same thing regarding ACab.
Underrated portion: They now have the ability to trade him for a nice package in 2014, right before his skills start to diminish, if they see that their window is closing/closed.
Oh, I agree with that. But I find the way we pick and choose which are the “best” or “worst” depending on what we want to believe in the first place hilarious.
fair enough