ESPN Mock: Cavs Land Harrison Barnes with Sixth-overall Pick
April 12, 2012NFL Draft: Browns Schedule Two-Day Visit for Tannehill
April 12, 2012Yesterday when talking draft, a friend of mine made a pretty good simple statement with regards to Justin Blackmon. It doesn’t really matter what a guy is “worth” on the draft value chart. Either you want him or you don’t. The draft value scale is only there to tell you what you probably have to do to get him. It also speaks to Pat McManamon’s mock draft from yesterday that I found so refreshing. It doesn’t matter what Mel Kiper thinks of Michael Floyd. If Tom Heckert thinks he is the best receiver in the draft and he wants him, he needs to either draft him at four or gamble on not getting the guy he wants in a trade down. Of course, we should have confidence that Heckert will find a way to make it happen as he has frequently traded up a couple slots when he had to in order to get a guy like Phil Taylor.
What is so helpful though is to look at the draft as binary. It’s either a 1 or a 0. You either want him for your team or you don’t. That’s the toughest part about draft speculation for fans. There are probably at least five guys projected to go in the first round that the Browns don’t want at any pick. Regardless of “rank” by experts there have to be guys that the Browns just don’t want on the team.
Much of the Ryan Tannehill talk is like that. Do the Browns even want Ryan Tannehill? They’ve talked at times like they would, but maybe that was to help drive up his price for trade purposes. Then again, if they have decided they want Tannehill on the Browns then they basically have to take him at four because he won’t be there later. That’s just taking what McManamon said about Floyd and applying it to the quarterback position.
At the same time, Mike Florio has written about the Browns draft needs and I agree with his QB takeaway as well.
Get a franchise quarterback, or stick with the journeyman you have. Drafting another quarterback of Christmas-without-the-playoffs-future won’t break the cycle of one journeyman after another.
The Browns made a play to draft Robert Griffin III because they saw him as a franchise player at quarterback. Missing out on that move doesn’t mean you can fix whatever deficiency the Browns were feeling by getting the next available options.
Last but not least, the one thing that people need to stop saying is “can’t.” I got into this conversation with (in)famous sports radio caller Hiram yesterday on Twitter as he said “You can’t draft a RT at #4!” There is no such thing as can’t. Even things others haven’t done before are fair game in the NFL because if you aren’t leading, then you’re chasing and probably never catching up.
Sure, the Dolphins never won a Superbowl with Ronnie Brown running the wildcat, but they became a far more dangerous team with it. As everyone from Cleveland to Kansas City and Denver chases the Belichick tree by bringing branches like Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Scott Pioli and Josh McDaniels, the only place it has actually retained its revered status is with Bill Belichick in New England.
While this logic may not necessarily apply to the Browns drafting Matt Kalil to be their right tackle should he be available at number four, it is still an important lesson. Championships are rarely won by trying to be the like the Patriots or Packers. Just like Apple Computer didn’t become Apple by trying to make the Palm Pilot better than Palm or trying to out-Amazon Amazon.com. Yet they found themselves one of the most revered companies by somehow ending up in the music and movie industry in a post-IBM hardware world.
In the NFL, you have to take care of business like everyone else, but along the way you also must find ways to innovate to create advantages. Innovation rarely, if ever, includes the word “can’t.”
97 Comments
I totally disagree with the premise of this post. Since there’s theoretically a market for picks, taking the guy you like at a position higher than you needed to use to get him is leaving value on the table. You get a benefit from being an awful football team. The best way to stay an awful football team is to leave some of that benefit on the table.
agree with all of this, Craig.
Admire GMs who seem to tune out the deafening crescendo of nonsense and info thrown around without context, the volume of which increases every year. It seems Heckert manages to do this. All these reports and opinions we quote turn to dust and ashes halfway through the first round, and then we forget that again next year.
We know this will happen because it always does: a big name will fall like crazy, and we’ll probably pass on him too as fans howl. The Browns will pick someone in the first few rounds who will send all us running for a player evaluation. And we won’t potentially fill every roster need because all of our draft choices can’t fit on the roster.
And this year we have to trade multiple picks, maybe moving down and up and down again. We might end up with some crazy configurations, like two firsts, four second rounders and none in rounds three or four. The horse trading might start before the draft. With 13 picks and maybe 7 openings, this promises to be the wildest Browns draft we’ve ever seen. Hope Heck’s heart feels ok.
The more I think about it the more it looks like they’ll have to trade up from 22 to get enough firepower on offense to compete. They’ve done well in the first few rounds of each draft at least, I’m confident they’ll continue to do so.
You build a board of potential draft targets based on BPA. While experts and fans create “mock” drafts based on early evaluations and combine risers/fallers,…rarely does this translate exactly into each teams BPA board. There are always surprise climbers and fallers and this year will be no exception.
Some teams go through their board and target need, so they basically skip over BPA in cases and settle for a player who fills an immediate need. Tannehill is an example of such a player. No matter the team that drafts him, he will be drafted much higher then that teams BPA would suggest he should. Since qb is an immediate need for some teams, they will “reach”.
I am hoping the Browns do not use this strategy when drafting. I hope they are one of the teams that truly build a board of BPA and take the best player available, regardless of position.
So if say Kalil is there at 4 and the Browns have him ranked higher then Blackmon,…either draft him or trade down if possible. Dont leave the better player (per your ranking) on the board just to fill a need. Maximize your draft.
I personally think outside of Luck, Richardson is BPA but I dont know if the Browns or any other team feels the same.
I agree. Draft who you think is best and plug them in where ever you see fit. If you draft the best LT in college and play him on the Right because you already have the best LT in the game then so be it. Also like this way of thinking with Claiborne. People say we cant draft him because we already have a shutdown corner. Since when would it hurt to have two shutdown corners in a pass happy league. I still want TRich and best lineman available with 22 but thats just me.
Spot on. This is what I find ridiculous about the “trade down to 6 and take whoever is left” strategy that everyone throws around. The Browns surely have a strong opinion on who they think is better after doing all their homework on these guys. I know it looks like the players are the same on Kiper’s Big Board, but they mean very different directions for the franchise. GMs aren’t indifferent about which direction they want to take.
Basically agree with that Florio quote, but I wouldn’t rule out the Browns thinking Wheeden has a legit chance at stardom and nabbing him at 22 or 37. If they think he’s more than a journeyman I have no problem with that pick.
To Roosevelt, you say it in your own post that this market is “theoretical.” There isn’t a thick market for picks — often there’s no market. If you want Floyd and can trade down to 7 that’s obviously better, but if you want Floyd and can’t make a trade then there’s no value being left on the table by taking him at 4.
i laughed at mkc’s piece today when she said ladarius green will go in the 5th/6th round. but let’s put that aside and use him as an example.
q: what do you do when your “BPA” in the 2nd round is ladarius green and youre pretty darn sure he’ll be there in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round?
a: you DO NOT take him in the second round.
i have to believe mangini/kokinos thought david veikune was the ‘BPA’ when they took him. how did that work out? you have to factor ‘market value’ in your selection.
regrettably, heckert has shown a tendency to fall in love with players and then overpay for them (taylor, hardesty) so there’s little doubt he’ll trade up again in this draft. (my guess is that we’ll deal for one of the pats 1st round picks to pick up weedon.)
The theoretical market operates in a fantasy world. It presupposes that trade partners are there, that a player will develop according to a standard path, ignores injury, etc.
It is a good tool to establish a baseline or starting point, but it isn’t very useful beyond that.
I agree.
Al Davis agrees with Craig. Ignore value and where you might get a guy and just pick who you want where you want them.
that was harsh, but the first 1/2 of the article above deserves it. the NFL draft is more like playing the stock market than making binary decisions. you need to gauge value and make prescient choices.
the very end of the article is where Craig makes good points. we do need to be innovative in how we approach the draft. but, this should be in the way of determining a players “true” value and then balancing it with his “perceived” value to maximize our choices in the draft.
Of course you can’t ignore market value. At the same time, Michael Floyd is undoubtedly a first rounder and most likely in the top half of the first round. I’m suggesting you can take a guy like that at #4 OVER a Justin Blackmon (hypothetically) and not be wrong. I am certainly not suggesting that the Browns figure out which third rounder they like the best and select him a round early.
Also, (I’m in no way saying this is what’s happening), what if you believe that Floyd is the next Jerry Rice? Do you risk trading down to get him, and thereby possibly miss out on him, or do you take him as soon as you can? In an instance like that, trade value means nothing – even if the next Jerry Rice is projected by everyone but you to be a 3rd rounder.
At some point you have to trust your own talent evaluation, which I think Heckert does – which is one of the reasons I like and respect him as GM.
ok, but what if you can trade down with JAX, pick up Lavonte David (which you acquire with their 2nd rounder they give you to trade up) and STILL get Michael Floyd. in that sense, yes, you were wrong for taking Michael Floyd at #4. which is why you have to weigh things.
the best example will probably always be Indy taking Edgerrin over Rickey. Yes, they both had good careers though Edge was probably the better pick for Indy. However, the opportunity cost that Indy lost by not getting the Ditka trade for Rickey was absolutely enormous (and they still very well could have gotten Edge).
Agreed. The draft is about adding the most amount of value with the picks and roster you currently have. Our roster is bad, but we have 13 picks where we should be able to add a few starters.
He probably believes that there are starting RTs later in the draft so drafting one at 4 would be ill advised. If Heckert believes that trading down and adding a second rounder would add more value than drafting at 4, then he’s gunna try and do it and probably succeed. For example, if someone like the Jags or Dolphins or Chiefs want to move up for any player and are offering a #2, we should take it, because Heckert would probably want Michael Floyd AND Doug Martin over just Blackmon or just Richardson. The key word for the draft is value, and Heck knows it
I don’t like this new wild take chances Craig. I get what you are saying with the Apple thing but it doesn’t quite work because Apple had infinite options to compete in any market place they wanted. If they were part of a confederation of businesses that all agreed to attempt to become the best at making personal computers then their forays into music would be seen as a failure. In your analogy the Browns are no good at football so they should try to become the best hip-hop dance troupe in the world.
Second ignoring the word can’t is something that people who don’t deal with a luxury tax can say. So I’ll explain can’t using can. You can drafta left tackle at 4 and you can try to convert him to right tackle and in 5 years you can pay him 3 times what any of his right tackle peers make and you can eat up 20% of your salary cap on two tackles. You can do that, and it definetly would break the mold and blaze a new trail. You can also get used to having to nail late round picks who become good early so they can play right away at lower salaries, and you can get used to watching everysingle playmaker walk away because their is no way you can pay them.
See, it can be done, I just feel that you don’t have to jump off the edge of the Grand Canyon to prove that you don’t have to donkey down the trail everyone else uses.
I also don’t agree with the “Just take Floyd at 4 if you love him so much!” line of thinking. Falling in love with a guy and determining you’re going to take him regardless of value leads to a disease known as Ditkitis, it does seem to be treatable but the short term effects include losing an entire draft worth of picks and wearing a stupid rasta wig.
And since I’m stuck on this soap box lets remember that Bill Belicheck didn’t blaze his own trail, he has sort of meandered back and forth across the trail his mentor Bill Parcels laid down, and Parcells did the same from whoever his mentor was, just as Holmgren did with Walsh.
Now Craig, get this whole Frank the Tank thing out of your system and start making sense again 🙂
This concept of whether or not you want a guy and where you have to pick them I thought is a fairly obvious statement or opinion. The problem with Cleveland is we have no identity and haven’t had one for a long time. The draft has become so important to every team in the nfl that it comes down to how well you team build rather than picking a guy where he needs to go. It’s fools gold to think that we need all these marquee skill players and to draft these high risk skill players that you can find 2 or 3 rounds later in the draft. Philadelphia has all pros at every skill position on offense and didn’t succeed the way people thought they would. You have to have great offensive and defensive lines unless you have an all world quarterback to bail you out of weak areas on your team. A great offensive line with a great defensive line and we control the trench areas and the skill players will fall into place because we control the line of scrimmage. We will need a franchise quarterback at some point but we have to give a young qb the chance to succeed by letting play action work and there are developmental qb’s in every draft. I personally love Brock Osweiler because when you watch him play he looks like one of the most athletic players on the field every game and he has a great arm and he has that je ne sais quoi. We need to trade down and draft offensive linemen to fill every hole except for Thomas’s spot and maybe Mack. Of course every year there will be guys that we like and want but we have to get an identity before we take a guy up high. We need to get as many picks as we can in the first 100 picks for a couple years(unless we can get a franchise qb) and draft offensive and defensive linemen and things will take care of themselves. Draft these skill players past pick 100 unless it’s Calvin Johnson jr.
Colt McCoy is as fine a QB as you can possibly have; touble with the Brownies…they rest of the team never shows up to play. Surround the QB with quality players and you might actually win some games.
using your example: if Philly didn’t draft any skill position players until past pick 100, then they wouldn’t have DeSean, Maclin, or McCoy.
Yeah but if you take a guy like Floyd early and in the 3rd and 4th rounds you can’t find any good offensive linemen then the Floyd pick is a wasted pick when you could potentially find guys that will be just as good as Floyd. You can’t find good trench players for the most part past the 4th round but you can definitely find skill players. A wide receiver is tricky though because you might have to draft one a little early but Floyd is no guaranteed superstar Calvin Johnson type and Cleveland can’t protect the qb long enough to make him worth this high of a pick. 2 dominant guards with Joe Thomas and a solid right tackle gives you a chance to win. The 3rd and 4th round and even the 5th will be loaded with skill players that can contribute but good luck finding big men(o-line and d-line) that are quick on their feet and coordinated.
Jake Bequette, DE, Arkansas
Billy Wynn, DE Boise St
Cam Johnson, DE/OLB Virginia
Senio Kelemete – OL Washington
Brandon Brooks, OG/OT Miami (OH)
Brandon Washington, OG Miami (Fla)
now, are those guys as good as the ones you get in the top3 rounds? no, of course not. but, neither are the WRs or RBs.
I love OL, but we just need a RT at this point. The other high value picks have got to go more skill position. You are over-valuing the ease at finding late-round skill guys.
And when we get an offensive line then you can start using earlier picks for skill players obviously. Look what Philly did without an o-line and d-line with all those skill players and that’s my point. I’m all for getting good skill players but if we don’t have trench players it doesn’t matter who we have. And if you think you can find 300lb+ o-linemen later in the draft that can run well and are coordinated good luck to you. I guess you are satisfied with our offensive lines performance then last year or you think we can get them later in the draft which I think is pretty funny. And you must not read well because my example for Philly was just saying you can have all pros at every offensive skill position but without a great o-line it doesn’t matter it wasn’t where Philly picked them.
Colt McCoy is average at best.
Meh, he is very average and that’s a fact. His production is poor, with most of his numbers getting a lot of help from garbage time football.
He is NOT an elite QB in the NFL and without one of those you’re mostly dead in the water.
Barkley, 2013?
Vick played in 13 games in 2011 and was sacked 23 times.
Colt played in 13 games in 2011 and was sacked 32 times.
So, 9 more sacks is a good deal, sure, but it’s not earth-shattering, in terms of difference.
Just consider this, regarding out shutdown corner, Joe Haden. He had 6 sacks in 2010. He had 0 in 2011.
Although, to be fair, Eric Berry (the guy I was pulling for in Haden’s draft) only had 4 INTs and then, of course, was super injured in 2011.
I couldn’t disagree more. You need to have at least one dominant guard on your team and most likely 2 to run the ball effectively. Alex Mack played awful last year in Shurmur’s system and other than Thomas no job should be secure on the o-line. Pinkston showed that he was alright but that’s funny if you think he showed all pro potential. I won’t even get into an argument with you about the depth of wide receivers and running backs to o-linemen because it’s a joke. It is so difficult to find athletic big o-linemen that can run well and you can’t find them past the 3rd round. When it comes to wide receivers and running backs you really have no idea who will emerge unless he is a physical specimen like Calvin Johnson was. A wide receiver has to depend on how good his qb and system is and running backs might have a terrible o-line. Someone in the 3rd round might be better than the guy you picked in the 1st round. When it comes to o-line it’s not hard to figure out who the cream of the crop is. It’s basically a sure thing right there for you to take that just happens to be the most important positions other than a qb on the field. As far as team building you and I are on polar opposites because Cleveland’s o-line might need 4 replacements in order to be good. Other than Joe Thomas no one impressed me at all. Pinkston as of right now would be good depth but that’s it.
option a- ot matt kalil and wr kendall wright or wr micheal floyd with a trade up or even rb richardson. option b- blackmon or richardson and ot mike adams or ot martin.. option b you blew it like butch davis,savage,carmon policy and dwight clark,ect…… why kalil, if kalil isnt the second best player in the draft he is the best!!!!!!!!!! you draft best availble regardless of postion or need(besides martin and adams are weak and terrible at pass protectors))). look a o-line works together as one unit a five man power chain mulling and bulling over defenders in the run game,keeping your qb clean off his back with minutes to throw,scoring ,while mashing and carving the oppenents defense up and keeping your defense well rested on the sideline!!!! o-line is the most important postions in football period(an offensive line is as good as there weakest link,,sure we had the best left tackle in the game but your right tackle has been the worst in the game.if you got all this talent at qb,wr,and rb but they got no chance because your right tackle and og’s are weak and play like garbage then what good is it….a foundatats up front and in left to right is as important as the other…….rookie salaries are and extremely cheap and affordable,,,,,jets had 4firsts whenre was higggh .it takes 5 solid drafts to compete year in and year out with no drop offs….relax this is year three in there rebuild…we already have a top 10 defense under them ,prez mike and gm hecks,and we are year three in draft we are not ready for qb’s,wr’s,and ‘or rb’s. a foundation up front is what is needed…you have 13 picks with wr and cb being a strength of this draft…….in 2013 with the browns being just about the only team needing a qb, you got qb’s…matt barkley,baray,jones,wilson,ect…….we have time and wr and rb can be had every year in every round….and can also be traded up for one, with a mountin of extra picks…
jets had 4 first round picks whe rookie scale was higher and they had a bigger payroll then us as well………….computer jammed and couldnt write the one line.
And Philly had one of the worst lines in the league. So Cleveland’s line is worse than Philly’s by a substantial amount which is sad. So once again my original point skill players won’t only win you games you have to have a good line and you can’t find good linemen for the most part past the 3rd round.
It’s like any other market that has inefficiencies. Sometimes you have to spend too much money on gasoline because you need gasoline, even if pure supply and demand dictate a lower price. But the default and the ideal is an efficient market.
We should take the best player on our board regardless of what the Kiper’s of the world think (unless you’re Phil Savage and actually use Kiper’s board to make picks). If Floyd is our fourth rated player, then fine, take him fourth. If he’s our ninth rated player then we’d be helping our team less than those that pick right after us. That’s what we mostly did from 1999-2010, which is the main reason why our team is a mess.
Agree totally with the thought that you have to be an innovator in this league. I love when people say “it’s a copy cat league”. How often do the copy cats win Superbowls? When Bilichick was signing a bunch of unknown free agents in the spring of 2001, the “experts” who kiss his butt now thought he was just another retread failure. Be creative Browns and quit with “our system” crap.
The Hiram comment is funny. That guy calls in ALL the time to EVERY sports radio show in Cleveland. Must be nice to be without a job and be able to call in whenever (he does always have some good points). I can’t wait for the draft, let’s get Kalil is he’s there. I agree with the comment about “you cant draft such and so this high”. We need good players, regardless where we get them. Even if we have to use a higher pic to get him. It beats the alternative: missing out on the guy
yes ive been saying if you take by need not on best availble not only are you building yourself weaker but leaving talent on the table for another team to build themselves stronger and the weaker team will lose to the stronger team with more talent…..for the record i said bill bellichick was going to be a great coach and it takes five solid drafts to build a contender year in year out with no drop off…..and i said no on courtney brown,gerrard warren,william green,jeff faine,braylon edwards,and wimbley over holati nahta…….no body use to listen………o-line isnt reinventing the game nore is d-line….its always been the most important postions in football……giants won with 3 wr’s not drafted so high and a d-line one of the tops in the league,there o-line was solid but not great and had two solid running backs to keep the patriots tired in which nether one where drafted high…eli manning is a special talent and if he had blocking like lt joe thomas lg cordy glenn c alex mack rg kelechi osemele or rg brandon brooks , rt kalil….then he would be even scarier…….in 2013 we can add a qb like that in barkley,baray,jones,wilson,ect…..also with wr and cb being a depth of this draft we have a mountin of picks to move around and trade possibilities to have as well with furure number ones not including 2013 and our picks this year we can easily move up and get players with ot matt kaliiil.if we wanted or remain patient and take best availble at our picks
hiram is an idiot he said yes to courtney brown,warren,edwards ect he has a loud mouth but knows zero about football
Mgbode, you consistently say exactly what I’m thinking, except do a better and more thorough job of it. Do you ever write your own articles? Or want to? If you ever cook one up I can get some eyes on it.
I agree with the part about the o-line. I’m not going to Monday morning quarterback about their past picks but I have not liked basically any of clevelands draft picks for the last ten years except for Joe Thomas Trade down and draft a couple guards and a right tackle with the 22nd and whatever picks you get with the 4th pick. This will give us an identity a little bit that we can give some of these skill players a chance to do well because we control the line of scrimmage. I hate picking in the top 10(not as much any more with the new rules where you pay people less) because you can get the same caliber talent in the 20’s and hopefully you pick up a pick by trading down. The people who want receiver early aren’t too far off because a good receiver is tough to find but to draft a running back early is craziness. Still no receiver in this draft will end up being a Calvin Johnson impact player so take some o-linemen and do your homework and get a guy a little later that will contribute. You can get a TY Hilton in the 4th round and a Lamichael James or Isiah Pead in the 2nd maybe 3rd round that can stretch the field and make short passes long gains which is what the west coast offense is all about. You will not find athletic guards that can run and pull and be coordinated on their feet that late in the draft. Same with a right tackle they have to be fast enough to cover the edge on teams speed rusher because they don’t want to line them up against Thomas.
I couldn’t disagree more-er. You need to give Mack a pass since he was covering a rookie and 2nd year guy on either side on every play. It makes no sense to say that a WR depends on his QB and system for success but a center like Mack doesn’t have to depend on the 2 guys standing right next to him to look successful. The idea that we need to replace 4 guys on the line is like getting a date with a supermodel and complaining that she didn’t eat her whole meal at dinner.
If you look at any all-pro list from the past decade you will see that every position has about 8 guys drafted in the first 2 rounds and a guy or two that came out of nowhere.
That being said Olinemen are no easier to predict success in than anyother position. For instance does Alex Baron’s name ring a bell? Probably not he was drafted 19 in ’05. That is 2 spots higher than most anyone has the Browns taking a shot at an o-lineman. He’s out of football and only made it through his rookie contract with St. Louis. The point is we could go back and forth all day me showing you 1st round busts on the line and you showing busts all over the rest of the field.
As far as sure things go, Bob Gallery being drafted 2 overall to be LT for the Raiders would like to talk to you. As would a guy named Gosder Cherlius or Jeff Otah both drafted in ’08 before the 22 pick and doing an average at best job. Cherlius is particularly intriguing because he was taken one pick ahead of Joe Flacco. Detroit could have taken Flaco and found somebody else to let people run past the RT positions and sack him as Cherlius has done for Stafford.
Just sayin’ its not science nothing is guaranteed.
For every Robert Gallery there are 10 Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtrees. So your argument is that some guy didn’t work out in 2005. You basically just made my point about how rare it is that linemen don’t work out. I didn’t say you can draft just anyone you have to do your homework but I am a huge proponent on having a great offensive line and a franchise quarterback as your stars of your offense. The Calvin Johnson’s of the world are so rare but great linemen are available all over the league.We are not going to get our star quarterback so why wouldn’t we build the line up which is the most important part of your offense. If it were up to me I would trade down and grab a guard and tackle in the first couple picks, resign Steinbach, and then take Kelechi Osemele as a project guard/tackle that could end up being great. With the extra pick that you get trading down draft either a db or outside linebacker. A big receiver is useless to Colt McCoy early because he has a weak arm. You need Wes Welker type players for that can can catch little dump passes and turn short passes into big gains. We need to establish that we can run the ball and get a franchise qb as our top priority. Because there is no franchise type qb that will be there at #4 trade down and draft o-linemen.
Before I say this I also agree that o-line is a the best place to build I just disagree where effective linemen can be drafted.
That being said, for every Bob Gallery there aren’t ten Braylons or Crabtrees, there are one of each.
For instance in 2005 the first 2 recievers off the board were Braylon and Troy Williamson, both busts. The first two OL were Jamaal Brown and Alex Barron also both busts.
In 2009 the first two recievers taken were Darius Heward Bay, and Crabtree. Chosen before either of them were Tackles Jason and Andre Smith, both unmitigated disasters. Ironically the later 1st round picks redeem both positions with Alex Mack and Michael Oher, and Jeremey Maclin and Percy Harvin being chosen.
My point is that if you just want to say that O line is a safer, more guaranteed pick in the first round that is okay, but you can’t prove it by going through the drafts and evaluating the success, comparatively of skill position players versus o-line.
I don’t think you even understand the argument. Offensive linemen are a priority to have success on your team and you can’t find them later in the draft. And I completely disagree with you. Offensive linemen taken in the first 30 something picks have way longer careers and contribute longer than wide receivers and running backs. I’m not going to spend time because I don’t think I even care that much looking up the last 10 years of drafts because no matter what we still need 3 maybe 4 new offensive linemen to be competitive. And I am not giving Mack a pass because being a center is about getting in the right pass protection. He put people in the wrong positions all year with his reads. Look at how dominant Pouncey is for Pittsburgh and he is worthy of a 1st round pick not Mack. I hope he does improve this year but if he doesn’t why keep him. And o-linemen are tough to know if they are going to succeed but you have a good chance of getting production with an early linemen pick. Whether we succeed with the pick or not we need 2 dominant guards to run the ball at a consistent level and your not going to have a good chance of getting them past the 3rd round. You will have a lot of upside skill player picks if you do your homework past the 3rd round. You will not present an argument to me that will not change my mind on needing almost a whole new offensive line before we can even move on. You can’t find guys later that are good linemen.Unless we can get a franchise quarterback draft a whole bunch of linemen this year. Next year we might need different needs but we have one of the worse lines in the league with the best left tackle and this makes no sense.
Here’s one thing they can reasonably do to make sure they are in position to capitalize on their circumstances, should they arrive. One small contingency plan on the .01% this actually happens, it wouldn’t hurt to be ready for it.
Suppose the Vikings are screwing around trying to trade their pick or whatever, they don’t send the card to the Commissioner right away. Say its getting close to the end of their clock and the card still has not been turned in (I know it was a different regime, but the Vikings HAVE done this before).
So, I just think the Browns should have a card ready with the name of the player they think is the best in this draft, (other than the presumed top 2 picks), ready to go to the podium at a split second’s notice.
Again, there is an infinitesimal chance of this happening, but this is how preparation meets opportunity, and it doesn’t cost anything to “be ready”
I understand the argument just fine. I simply disagree with the premise that you can’t find o-linemen later in the draft. All positions have higher success rates higher in the draft.
You have an opinion and you have made it clear that you aren’t willing to let facts change that opinion, so we can leave this alone until you “care” to prove that O-line are only successful if gotten in the first 3 rounds. I have give you two examples where you are clearly wrong and if we went through the draft you would see you are severely misguided. However we have already established that you “don’t care” to be proven wrong. But hey just because your premise is wrong its no reason to let it go.
As far as Mack goes, I don’t know what you are doing sitting on a couch on Sundays watching football. Are you telling me that you can watch a game and tell what plays are being signaled in, what audibles McCoy is making, what protection adjustments Mack is calling, and whether or not breakdowns in protection came from his calls or from people missing assignments? Once again, I think you have an idea and conform reality to fit it. Same goes with Pouncey who like Chris Samuels before him seems to be injury prone and might not have such a long career. But hey lets not let anything disuade you from your ideas.
thank to porkchop to picking up the argument after I left. I agree with 90% of what he said.
and Floyd, I implore you to watch the last 4 games of the season. if we were talking about how the OGs were playing in the first 10 or so games, I would have been stomping my feet too. Pinkston and Lauvao improved and they have a chance at getting better (noone ever said all-pro — but, no team has 5 all-pro guys)
I don’t understand why you think it’s so easy to get late round WRs. Calvin, Andre, Larry, Roddy, Julio, AJ, Nicks, Maclin, etc. were all 1st round picks. DeSean, Jennings, etc. were 2nd rounders drafted high.
Yeah, you’ll get the occasional Cruz or Colston who you can get later. Just like the occasional OL who you get later. But, WR has definitely become a priority of early drafting of many teams and that is where the talent lives (for the most part).
I agree about having an above average OL. but, you are taking this to the extreme.
not satisfied, but I realize they played better down the stretch and I think that Pinkston and Lauvao have potential. If Steinbach is healthy, I would love to re-sign him and make it a 3way battle for 2 open spots.
Philly took awhile to gel but ended up going on a tear and finished the year 8-8. With as well as they were playing late in the year, we could have been talking about them instead of the mighty 9-7 Giants as a standard bearer if they had happened to win one of their close games early. Yes, their OL was a problem (as was their LB corps).
thank you sir. I must admit it’s much easier to engage in short debate than write the well-thought articles that the writers of this site consistently do.
Ok…lets try something ” different ” here……If we assume that a great OL makes all the “skill positions ” better …( and I agree with that )…..then I have a simple but extraordinary plan for the browns……If Kalil somehow is available at 4…( say vikes trade down etc and that is now a real possibility )….then we take Kalil at 4 and then trade UP from 22 and assure ourselves DeCastro from Stanford….( there is much commentary to the fact he is the best guard in a decade..)…..so you leave the first round with picks of the best Tackle and Guard in the draft……with the play of our current gaurds at the end of the season that should IMMEDIATELY give us one of the BEST OL’s in the NFL…..then just stock up on skill position WR and RB…..Then the excuses of our OL go away and we find out who is who at the skill set……Add a little more depth on our Def and we could and should be competitive immediately……( I think everyone is going to be pleasantly suprised at how well our 2 FA DE’s that we picked up on the cheap are going to help us..)……Great OL…Top 10 Defense…..RB’s are a dime a dozen and should thrive behind that OL…..when Colt gets a little more time common sense says he will be better….I am telling everyone that picking up Kalil and Decastro will have more positve effect on our team than any other 2 picks in the first round or total draft…( Except for maybe Luck and RG3 )……Let the comments begin………………
Ok…lets try something ” different ” here……If we assume that a great OL makes all the “skill positions ” better …( and I agree with that )…..then I have a simple but extraordinary plan for the browns……If Kalil somehow is available at 4…( say vikes trade down etc and that is now a real possibility )….then we take Kalil at 4 and then trade UP from 22 and assure ourselves DeCastro from Stanford….( there is much commentary to the fact he is the best guard in a decade..)…..so you leave the first round with picks of the best Tackle and Guard in the draft……with the play of our current gaurds at the end of the season that should IMMEDIATELY give us one of the BEST OL’s in the NFL…..then just stock up on skill position WR and RB…..Then the excuses of our OL go away and we find out who is who at the skill set……Add a little more depth on our Def and we could and should be competitive immediately……( I think everyone is going to be pleasantly suprised at how well our 2 FA DE’s that we picked up on the cheap are going to help us..)……Great OL…Top 10 Defense…..RB’s are a dime a dozen and should thrive behind that OL…..when Colt gets a little more time common sense says he will be better….I am telling everyone that picking up Kalil and Decastro will have more positve effect on our team than any other 2 picks in the first round or total draft…( Except for maybe Luck and RG3 )……Let the comments begin………………