While We’re Waiting… Comparing Kipnis, Play the kids, and fifth-starter battle
March 19, 2012
Setting the standards for Browns debate
March 19, 2012
Until I was about seventeen, I was pretty sure Paraguay was an island nation in the South Pacific. It just sounded so right I never even bothered to check: the Philippines is next to Guam is next to Paraguay. QED. When I found out that I was, in fact, horribly wrong and that I could actually drive to Paraguay if so inclined, I was embarrassed. The moral of the story: It’s never a good thing to be surprised by publicly available facts.
This is sort of how I felt when I was looking at some of Michael Brantley’s numbers the other day, but let me back up before we get there.
The narrative I’ve constructed in my head says that Michael Brantley is one part of the four-piece bust we got in return for CC Sabathia. While he’s not as spectacular a bust as LaPorta, that’s mostly due to the fact that he was never all that highly regarded in the first place. Brantley probably has the skills to be a fourth outfielder on a good team or a centerfielder on a mediocre one, but to expect more than that borders on hallucinatory. To expect him to hit enough to hold down a corner OF spot is downright insane.
But here’s what I found out the other day that made me start rethinking things: Michael Brantley is YOUNGER than Jason Kipnis. I’ve not been so surprised since Paraguay.
Not that I want to carry the Brantley-Kipnis thing to any extreme, but it is interesting to me that while Kipnis was allowed time to develop at his own speed in the Minor Leagues, Brantley was forced onto the Big League roster at the age of 22 because the team had so few viable OF alternatives.
To me then, it would seem possible that the Brantley that we’ve seen so far has been largely a work-in-progress. And that just because I’m tired of seeing him ground out weakly to second base, doesn’t mean it must always be so.
When we acquired Brantley, his skills were said to be twofold: getting on base and speed. In parts of three Big League seasons he has a .316 OBP and 27 stolen bases and thrown in some sub-par defense just for good measure.
But this is where we remember that he’s only 24 years old, and that most players his age don’t have three years of MLB experience to learn from. There’s a reason teams don’t typically rush young players to the majors—even Grade A prospects like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. No matter how much potential a player might have, that potential means nothing until the player learns how to unlock it. Perhaps these last few years have allowed Brantley time to find the key?
We once thought that Michael Brantley could be the next important piece of our outfield. Maybe we just expected it to happen too quickly. Don’t look now, but he’s got a .379 OBP so far this Spring. He’s walked as often as he’s struck out. And more than half of his hits have been for extra bases. This isn’t me saying that you should believe in these numbers.
But maybe we should stop believing so much in the numbers he put up three years ago. There’s a good possibility he’s a different player today, and he’s going to have every opportunity to prove it this season.
16 Comments
Great piece. I’ve never understood the criticism that Brantley has taken. In my mind, he had a pretty good year last year before he was sidelined with injury. I think that Dr. Smooth is poised to have a great year at the top of the order.
I agree that Brantley has some potential and we can “hope” on it. But, we can’t bank on it because, as you said:
“There’s a reason teams don’t typically rush young players to the majors—even Grade A prospects like Bryce Harper and Mike Trout”
I thought Brantley was quite good in left field a year ago, I was hoping that somebody else would step up in center so we could keep him there.
If he can strike out less and walk more, he should be ok this year.
I’m a Brantley fan, and suspect that some forget his age because his on-field demeanor is that of an older player. The last time he was healthy he was having consistent quality at-bats but seemed to lose his patience and discipline when hurt, maybe compensating for problems with his swing. Really think this kid just needs to stay healthy and he’ll become a legit starting outfielder who hits .280-.290 with some pop. Not a perennial all-star, but a reliable producer until they have to move him or lose him
I guess because he came with Laporta I assumed they were both about the same age. Unlike Laporta I hold out hope that Brantley can become an effective everyday player. Like just about every other aspect of the team this is a “lets see what we really have with these guys season”.
also, Jon, you didn’t play FIFA on any gaming konsole? that’s the only reason I knew where all the countries resided growing up. watching soccer has never been much for me, but in FIFA you could turn the penalties off, keep injuries on, and have hockey on grass (with a bunch of scoring too). Loved that game.
if he’s only a reliable guy, then we have a better chance at re-signing him (so a Cuddyer or Willingham type talent is what you are thinking, right?).
I’m sure Brantley is glad LaPorta is still around compared to him Brantley will never look bad. I’m pulling for Brantley though.
I’m sure Brantley is glad LaPorta is still around compared to him Brantley will never look bad. I’m pulling for Brantley though.
No, by reliable meant if he hits free agency at age 27(?) consistently producing those kind of numbers I mentioned, he’d be almost at Choo-level, circa 2008-2010, except younger and with possible additional upside during his sought long-term contract. That’s probably 5 years at an annual not determined by tons of incentives which the Dolans can’t pay.
ok, to me Choo had perennial allstar stats though.
.300 hitter, OPS+ 140-155, 30+2B, 20+HR, 20+SB
if Brantley does that for 3 straight years, then I’ll be very, very happy.
There’s still plenty of hope for Brantley. A lot of guys don’t start developing power until they’ve been in the league for a few years. I’ve seen some comparisons too Big League Choo in the comments… Choo didn’t start to develop home run power until he had been in the league for about 3 years at age 25. Likewise, it usually takes a few years of seeing major league pitching to develop the patience necessary to get walks. In my mind, Carlos Santana was kind of the exception to the rule there… before he arrived I couldn’t remember seeing a rookie who was that patient at the plate.
Argh! What is it with all these Spring Training stats? Jon, you should know better.
re: Brantley… As much as I like the guy, I don’t see his game being comparable to Choo. He walks less, puts the ball in play more, and doesn’t have that type of power. I think he tops out at 10-15 HRs while Choo can go 30-35 imo.
That said, if Brantley can figure out CF in the majors, none of that matters. He seems to have the physical tools to play the position, but needs to improve the lines he takes to the ball. Whatever he does at the plate, decent defense at center will go a long way. I’m actually glad to see him get another chance at center this year.
I think projecting Choo to be a 30+ HR guy is a little ambitious. His career high is 22 in a season…
It is. You’re right. I should have been more clear. I wasn’t projecting him as such. It was more a top range on him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jack 30some HRs. I’m not going to look up the #’s but in his first year, he hit like 15 or so in maybe 300-350 ABs. And he just drives the ball so well. I see him hitting 30 before Brantley hits 20.
“before . . . injury” is not an useful qualifier. A big problem that has come up with Brantley is that he can’t really stay healthy. A lack of health at 22-24 is not a good sign as a player ages.