Keith Law Ranks Indians’ Farm System 29th in MLB
February 8, 2012Cavaliers Shouldn’t Fear the 8 Seed on the Road to Rebuilding
February 8, 2012
We are so close to pitchers and catchers reporting to Arizona, that baseball starved fans like me can taste it. Football season officially ended Sunday with the New York Giants holding the Lombardi Trophy for the second time in four years. While I am a hardcore college basketball junkie (which in this town is like being a leper), I always have one eye looking towards my first love, the Cleveland Indians.
The upcoming season has a ton of intrigue. The winter leading up to this campaign had so many ups and downs. Everyone looked at the offseason as a time where the Indians would do everything they could to get that middle of the order, right-handed power bat to place between a healthy Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana. GM Chris Antonetti wasted no time improving his roster. Just after the World Series, he acquired veteran pitcher Derek Lowe from Atlanta presumably as the fifth starter. The thought was that he would stabilize that final spot, throw his usual 200-plus innings, and offer some veteran presence to the clubhouse of this young team. Little did we know how valuable adding Lowe would be.
Then the bat search began. Early talk surrounded Michael Cuddyer, but he was quickly priced out of the market. We moved on to Josh Willingham, who wanted a three-year deal, which the Indians did not want to give him. Then the Carlos Beltran rumors quickly surfaced. Within 24 hours, Beltran spurned the Indians two-year, $24 to sign with the St. Louis Cardinals. At least the Indians showed they were serious and willing to spend. After Beltran, Antonetti moved on to the three-headed first base free agent monster – Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Casey Kotchman. Lee never seemed to have the interest in the Indians that the Indians had in him. Pena looked like the guy who would finally be the answer. Though left-handed, Pena had the 35-40 home run power and the defensive acumen than the Tribe coveted. A reported one-year, $8 million offer was on the table for him, but instead he chose to go back to Tampa, where he spent 2009, for $7.25 million. In the end, they settled on the contact hitting Kotchman last week, one a one-year, $3 million deal. (SIDE NOTE – I still say the Tribe should have pursued a trade for Carlos Lee of the Houston Astros. While his defense is Matt LaPorta-esque at first, he was a right-handed bat power bat that could have been had for almost nothing.)
Meanwhile, somewhere in between the Pena and the Kotchman talk, a major story broke that would change the face of the starting rotation and would rock the organization. The man we all thought was the 28-year old Fausto Carmona, was found out to be Roberto Hernandez Heredia, a 31-year old and arrested in the Dominican Republic trying to renew his Visa to get back to the States for Spring Training. The situation was such that the Tribe couldn’t count on Carmona for the season. Antonetti was forced to strike quickly, and he did, trading for former Minnesota Twins starter Kevin Slowey.
Worst of all for the Indians, was what would follow in Detroit. Their main rival for the AL Central crown, the Tigers, lost Victor Martinez for the season with a torn ACL. While nobody in our city would ever wish anything bad on Victor, perhaps the most popular Tribe player of the last decade, it seemed as though the Indians chances at catching the Tigers had gotten better. But less than a week later, that excitement was tempered when Super Agent Scott Boras called his old friend, ancient Tigers owner Mike Illitch, and worked out a nine-year, $214 million contract with Prince Fielder. It was a punch to the gut of everyone in Wahoo World.
In addition to the Slowey, Lowe and Kotchman acquisitions, the Indians attempted to collect as many players with major league experience on minor league deals as they could. Guys like Dan Wheeler (expected to fill the Chad Durbin role in the bullpen), Felix Pie, Robinson Tejeda, Ryan Spillborghs, Andy Laroche, Matt Pagnozzi, Chris Ray, and Jose Lopez were brought in with a chance to make the club out of spring training, but more so to add depth. They also added AAA Player of the Year Russ Canzler (Tampa) and Aaron Cunningham (San Diego) via trades as other right-handed bat options.
So this is how we got to today. It looks as though the Indians are done adding to the roster unless something else too good to be true pops up. The one thing currently hanging out there is the contract negotiations with shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. He is the last remaining arbitration eligible player on the roster. The Indians are said to be attempting to sign Asdrubal long-term, which would be a great thing for the organization, but nothing has been deemed close to being finalized.
What is interesting to note is that the Indians do not currently have a single player signed to a contract past the 2013 season. The real question is what are they positioning themselves for? While I love the outlook for the next two years, it seems as though the Tribe has a two-year window remaining before the cycle of rebuilding would begin again. This is not negativity; this is the reality of our situation and our market. I admire what Antonetti is attempting to do. He wants to win now and is doing what is within his powers to improve the team for today. That was proven with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade last July. He sacrificed his top two pitching prospects for two and a half years of an in-his-prime top of the rotation starter to pair with Justin Masterson. He has infused the organizations top two position player prospects – Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall – into the mix with veterans Choo, Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Grady Sizemore. Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana should be ready to bust out into the next step towards their prime years. A deep bullpen has been built with a mix of quality veterans and youth.
Now is the time for the Indians to make their move. But will they? If 2012 turns into a colossal failure, which I don’t see happening, the Indians will be shedding plenty of payroll, while being able to keep their young core in place. Lowe ($5 million), Sizemore ($5 million with potential for $8 million if he hits incentives), Hafner ($14 million), and Carmona ($8 million – which he isn’t getting unless he plays this year) will all be off the books at the end of 2012. That’s a nice chunk of change.
If a long-term deal can be reached with Cabrera, you will still have AC, Kipnis, Santana, Chisenhall, Brantley, and Choo along with Masterson, Jimenez, and Josh Tomlin in the rotation, and a bullpen with a bevy of arms that include Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Frank Herrmann, and lefty Nick Hagadone (who will more than likely replace Rafael Perez who will be a free agent at season’s end) for 2013.
Whatever happens after 2013 is the great unknown. That is why it is imperative that the Indians come through over these next two seasons.
24 Comments
“What is interesting to note is that the Indians do not currently have a single player signed to a contract past the 2013 season. The real question is what are they positioning themselves for?” To promote the entire Columbus Clippers roster!
and IPI has a theory to why STO might be for sale and why the Indians have refused to go more than 2 years out on any contract.
Interesting article.
I remember reading a Hoynes column in the PD this winter where, out of nowhere, he tossed out the idea of the Dolans selling in the near future. He didn’t report it as fact or anything. It was purely a hypothetical, but it just seemed like such a weird thing to throw out there (I think it was in a Q&A and the question didn’t have anything to do with the topic). In short, it made me really curious if there are whispers around the organization or some indications that people with some access have noticed. It seems entirely plausible.
STO for sale, no contracts beyond 2013 AND the farm system empty…i smell what the mgbode is cooking.
I’ve had the theory along with others that ’13 was the year the Jacobs sell, more evidence points toward it everyday.
“It was a punch to the gut of everyone in Wahoo World.”
Consider my gut “in tact”. I didn’t take the Fielder signing hard and hopefully others didnt as well.
Adding a big bat in baseball is great but not the thing that clearly seperates the Tigers from us in a division race.
Pitching, pitching pitching. A solid starting unit with a lights out bullpen crew (or vice versa) is more of a threat than adding a single bat to an already good lineup. IMO.
I wouldn’t say the farm system is empty. The upper levels, yeah, but that’s because so much of it is in the majors. And the lower levels, while not amazing, have enough talent that, if players develop (always a big if), we should be okay post-2013.
I agree. It hurt, but not as much as some have suggested.
And watching that Tigers infield will be worth the price of admission.
IPI mentions Gilbert and really that’s the best case scenario. Not because he will spend on payroll (he will not much more than Dolan if at all), but because it would infuse good-will to the fans as well as keep them anchored to Cleveland.
The opt-out on the Progressive Field lease is in 2018. My fear is the Dolan’s will sell the team by 2015 giving the new owners time to shop for a new city as well as being able to say that they gave Cleveland a shot and it just isn’t working out there.
agreed that the system is not “empty”; however Columbus and Akron are which to me are the suggesting of the impending sale due to the time it takes to move from Kinston to Lake County on up.
my worst fear is this town without the Tribe, the one team able to produce moderate to high success for the past decade but unable to produce the same now “cult” following of the Browns.
I get that there are only 8 home games a year for the Browns versus the 3,809,544,003.001 homes games for the Tribe but the lack of respect for the overall strength of management of the organization makes me unhappy.
well, my worst fear is that they not only move, but move to SA, which would mean that I have to hate a MLB team that is less than an hour from my home and feel dirty if I ever buy tickets.
As I’ve mentioned before when this topic comes up, I’m worried about what crazy concessions Bud Selig might force upon a new owner as well.
Well their rotation and bullpen is arguably better, too.
SIDE NOTE – Carlos Lee has stated he would reject a trade to any AL team, and would likely have cost twice as much in salary as Kotchman and obviously prospects too.
But they’re negotiating with Cabrera and they tried to negotiate with Choo last year. Also, why wouldn’t they try to keep their better players? It makes the franchise more valuable if Dolan did sell, and the new guy certainly wouldn’t want to jump into a small market franchise with little major league talent.
Also, for all the reasons Dolan would want to sell, why aren’t they reasons Gilbert wouldn’t want to buy? Gilbert certainly knows how the revenue structure works in MLB and how much the new CBA harmed small market teams. As much goodwill as he built up with “The Letter”, nothings going to change the fact that he’s not going to spend wildly like the average fan wants, and all that goodwill will disappear quickly.
guys like Choo and Cabrera, yeah, no doubt they’d be willing to sign them long-term to reasonable deals. if they are going to sell though, you do not want unmarketable players on longer term deals (say 3-4 years of a Josh Willingham). it could also just be being financially prudent.
i agree on Gilbert not wanting the bad PR that comes with the Indians. that’s why I am fearful.
The assumption is that people hate Dolan SO MUCH and love Gilbert SO MUCH, the Jake would magically fill up again allowing for us to spend $150M a year to bring in winners like Willingham, Pena, and Cuddyer.
As for reasons not to buy, they apply to everyone interested in the team. We are not a particularly promising investment, imo.
Way I see it, Dolan has been mostly frugal yet willing to spend on occasion and STILL wants to sell. Anyone interested in buying the Indians will be either be in it to use it as a play thing that operates at a loss (a pipedream, imo) or as a bottom feeder that minimizes costs to live on the MLB welfare system like the Pirates have for years. That, or relocate it to greener pastures (if those exists)
Long short, as I’ve said before: be careful what you wish, Dolan critics.
Co signed.
This is where Shaprio and Antonetti have got to start hitting some home runs on their draft picks. Shapiro took a lot of heat as GM and still takes heat as VP. But I think people criticize him for the wrong reasons. Its his terrible drafting that people should be up in arms about, not trading CC Sabathia when he basically had no other choice. And yeah yeah, I know, Matt LaPorta. But at the time LaPorta was a top prospect. Shapiro isnt the only GM to get burned dealing an All Star for a so called “top prospect”.
But I digress, drafting is the one area in which the Indians need to vastly improve. Thats the ticket to some semblance of sustained success. Not overpaying guys like Cuddyer, Willingham or going in the red for the next decade to sign a 300 pound first baseman. I mean signing Fielder is great for your team if they can afford it, but obviously we cant.
Long story short, if the Tribe begins to draft better, maybe we can have a consistently competitive team and folks around town will put away their pitchforks for Dolan.
“Spend when the time is right” – Paul Dolan
Bullshit.
Seconded.
and a third.
payroll near $80mil in ’08 & ’09. payroll over $70mil this season.
were you expecting over $100mil? and if so, from where is that money coming?
I’m gonna miss one of my favorite players from the second half of last season, Kosuke Fukudome. It doesn’t seem like he’s signed anywhere since his contract ran out.