While We’re Waiting… Evaluating Shurmur, Tribe Front Office and Gibson Produces
January 3, 2012Stuck In First: Considering the Indians’ Options at First Base
January 3, 2012Feel free to take any or none of this first part seriously.
This time five years ago Drew Brees was a free agent at the age of 27. Â He had five years of NFL experience and 59 games under his belt, starting 58 of them. Â In that time he threw for 12,348 yards and 80 TDs. Brees had some shoulder problems that caused him to miss the Pro Bowl and ultimately chose to field offers from the Dolphins and Saints after the Chargers offered him a deal that was so heavily-laden with incentives that he passed on it.
In 2005, the Browns had Trent Dilfer and Charlie Frye both playing QB at times. Â The Cleveland Browns had just as much chance as any other team in the league (presumably) to negotiate with Drew Brees and make him a part of their franchise. Brees was a QB who had thrown for over 3,000 yards in three of four years. Â Matt Flynn is nothing like Drew Brees.
Flynn has played in 34 games starting only two of them. Â In four seasons, Flynn has thrown for 1015 yards. Total. Â He put up some really gaudy numbers in a slugfest this past weekend with the Detroit Lions. Â These Lions finished the year 22nd in pass defense. Flynn also did it with a team boasting Donald Driver as probably the third or fourth best option in the passing game behind Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, not to mention a compliment of running backs and fullbacks. Â Flynn has only started two regular season NFL games in his four-year career.
That’s two more NFL games started than Robert Griffin III, who won the Heisman trophy this year from Baylor. Â RG3 is an athletic freak with a rocket arm and an ability to run faster than any defense he has faced. Â Most defenses he’s faced belong to fellow Big 12 teams. Â RG3 will definitely get drafted in the first round this year should he decide to enter the NFL draft.
Colt McCoy also tore it up against Big 12 teams despite being selected in the third round and decidedly not winning the Heisman trophy. Â He was the runner-up in 2008 though when he was a junior. Â Robert Griffin III is currently a junior.
Colt McCoy has also been compared to Drew Brees mostly due to their similar stature in relation to the size of the offensive line they play behind. Â In Brees’ first year starting in the NFL he was 8-8 with a 60.8% completion rate, 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 interceptions. Â All said and done Colt McCoy was 4-9 completing 57.2% of his passes for 2733 yards, with 14 TDs and 11 interceptions. Â McCoy’s QB rating was 74.6 vs. Brees’ 76.9.
Matt Flynn’s QB rating was 82.4 last year and was 124.8 this season. Â That’s over two seasons and only two starts.
Again, that’s still two more NFL starts than college junior Robert Griffin III.
See how confusing it can all be? Â Not every player mentioned in this post will end up being a great player. Â Well, except Drew Brees because he already is one. Â For all the excitement around them Matt Flynn and Robert Griffin III could both end up being complete and utter busts. Â I am not an NFL scout. Â I’ve never scouted a quarterback from college or from limited reps in the league. Â I watched the NFL combine last year and was unimpressed with Cam Newton who tore it up as a rookie this year in Carolina. Â Shows what I know. Â Unless I am underestimating our readership, none of you have had much more success scouting than I. Â Keep that in mind as we all express our opinions in free agency and draft this season.
Here’s what I’m going with right now. Â The Browns need to have someone to compete with Colt McCoy for the starting job next year at minimum.
If the Browns decide to go after Matt Flynn, it clears up the draft to take weapons including Trent Richardson, or Justin Blackmon. Â It clears the draft to take a right tackle or a premier pass rusher.
If the Browns decide to draft RG3 and bring him in to compete with Colt McCoy / eventually take over the team, they will need to be very very active in free agency. Â RG3 is a weapon, but he’ll need a lot of help as a young player.
At this point none of any of this precludes Colt McCoy, necessarily. Â He is young and needs more weapons too if he remains in Cleveland. Â I don’t know for sure that the book is closed on Colt McCoy’s career just yet.
We haven’t seen enough (I don’t think) to just go into next season and count on McCoy improving steadily, but it is a possibility that he will continue to get better. Â We’ll see if the Browns have any patience left for McCoy after this year and how it all unfolded with his father.
At this point, I could even entertain a trade up to the Colts for Andrew Luck. Â If the Browns do that though, they better be in the market for free agents like the Colts’ Pierre Garcon at a minimum as they won’t have the bullets in the gun for this draft and possibly even the next one to improve the team.
As the adage goes, there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Â I don’t eat fish, so I’m not really comfortable with the thought of de-skinning a catfish, but the Browns better do it this year if they have any hopes of not leaving Browns fans hungry yet again next season.
I’ll be looking at Tom Heckert’s strategies in free agency for clues. Â I’ve said it too many times already, this is the most important off-season since the Browns took Tim Couch in 1999. Â We better hope that Tom Heckert and company gets it right, whichever way they go with this off-season.
Just don’t expect them to tell you before they do whatever it is they plan on doing.
78 Comments
our head coach didnt watch the stanford/okst game last night.
didnt seem to know who played.
does anyone else think this is a problem?
Our head coach isn’t our head scout or general manager or team president.
Positives
————-
GB Offense doesn’t appear to drop-off when he is inserted into the game. Unlike in places like Chicago, KC, Indy, etc. where a missing QB has completely hindered the offense.
He is an accurate passer. Don’t think this one is very debateable. It was his reputation in college, and he has done nothing in the NFL to show that is not the case.
He knows the WCO. It might not be the exact same offense we will run, but it is very likely it will have the same terminology, same basic route trees, same types of QB reads, etc.
He is a UFA. No compensation required other than his contract.
He has shown (in limited duty obviously) that he can throw accurate deep balls in cold weather.
If we sign a UFA (GB needs the franchise tag for Finley), then we can focus our draft on getting him weapons. Blackmon/Lamar Miller/Adcock becomes a possibility for our top3 picks.
GB’s QB coach has proven through Rodgers that he can coach-up a backup QB and get him to play at a very high level (teaching is incredibly important).
He did beat out Brohm who was a 2nd round draft pick in the same draft for GB for the backup job despite the higher investment in Brohm (minor note, but still a note)
He comes from a winning program in GB and perhaps can bring in some intangible aspects (how to work off the field, how to carry a locker room, etc) as other players can do from such programs. Knowing what you need to do to win is an important part of winning (this is obviously not a guarantee but it should be noted).
Negatives
————-
Not the most physically adept QB. He’s not a towering QB nor is he a huge Big Ben / Cam Newton type guy.
He doesn’t have the strongest arm.
He does not have a ton of experience. It is possible that once defenses adjust to his strengths/weaknesses that he may not be able to adjust himself and fail (which is where the Kelly Holcomb comparisons are coming from).
He has looked great in the GB-system with GB-weapons. We do not have those weapons. Can he elevate lesser talent?
He will command a hefty contract. With Barkley staying, there are only 2 top10 draftable QBs in this draft (Luck and RGIII). Miami, Washington, and Seattle will definitely consider him. The Jets, Chiefs, Rams, and others may consider making a switch at QB if they can pay rather than use a draft pick. Probably Kevin Kolb money, but possible that we can get an “out” clause in it after 2 seasons much like is rumored that Arizona has with Kolb (up-front guaranteed money instead of spread out so that there isn’t a huge cap-hit or cap-hold if you cut bait).
ok. this is true. but wouldnt a ‘football guy’ be interested in the top QB or top WR or 2 of the top 5 OL prospects?
there are guys who sit in their cube and do their thing. and there are guys who live their career and industry and curious about the world beyond the specific role they hold today.
(you want to hire the second type.)
@53 – that was obviously about Flynn. Sorry.
and I like Flynn/Blackmon/Lamar Miller/Z.Sanders or Adcock as a potential fix to our offense.
think of it this way, if Blackmon does last to #4 (possible if StL trades down for Mia/Was to get RGIII and Minny picks Kalil)…is RGIII worth Flynn+Blackmon?
No need to be angry or insulting, Jack. Sorry you don’t like my opinions (but I’d certainly prefer that you quote them in full before launching your nuclear salvos – you missed some very important, subtly nuanced details!).
If you can guarantee, 100%, that RG3 is the Browns’ best bet for a franchise QB, either now or in the future, then you have me sold. I assume, however, that you are no more of a “talent evaluator” than I am, having probably watched as much or more and played as much or less football than I have, and cannot do so. Therefore, I continue to disagree with your approach and maintain that drafting Blackmon is better than drafting Griffin. So there. I know you are, but what am I?
It’s all an exercise in theory, anyway. With any luck (no, not that “Luck”), Blackmon will be drafted #2, RG3 will stay at Baylor, and we’ll trade our #4 pick for a long-snapper and tee-retreiving dog. We’ll end up 4-12, which is better than the 5-11 record that we’d have with either Surefire Blackmon or Can’t Miss Griffin.
Tomayto, tomahto, let’s call the whole thing off.
Oh, and I’m waiting for next year.
Lets look at some ” facts ” to see what the truth is…..
FACT – 9 of the top 10 QB’s in passer rating are IN the playoffs…
FACT – 13 of the top 20 rushing leaders are NOT IN the playoff
FACT – 8 of the top 10 reception leaders are IN the playoffs…
Anyone see a trend there.????…..its a PASSING league….so getting a RB ( Richardson ) is a waste of time….
For those of you who dont think you can find a WR later in the draft….
FACT – Greg Little had the 2nd most receptions amongst rookies ( AJ Green beat him 65 – 61 )…..!!!!
I know he didnt get that many yards but thats more our offense and the type of receiver he is…..just think if he didnt lead the league in drops…..
What does this tell us????……YOU HAVE TO HAVE A GREAT QB…!!!!
We need to draft RG3 if he is available…You need to take the risk of grabbing a level one QB when the opportunity knocks…( WHY DO YOU THINK THERE WERE SO MANY TEAMS RISKING 1ST RD PICKS ON QB’S IN LAST YEARS DRAFT!!! THEY KNOW THAT !!! )
The 3 QB’s not in the top 10 in rating that made the playoffs were Flacco ( still not sold on him ) …Dalton ( Everone laughed at pick but honestly…would you rather have him or McCoy ?? )…and Tebow…please…..that charade and his 15 minutes of fame will end this Sunday….he will not be the starting QB by week 6 next year…
Take RG3….Besr OL on board with Atlanta pick…..and speed with 2nd and 3rd rd picks on offense or another OL…..Defense in FA…to help fill a spot or 2……DO NOT TAKE A RB OR LB …WASTE OF TIME….
But thats just my opinion and I could be wrong 🙂
I think if Shurmur had said he watched the OK St game jimk would be on here complaining that Shurmur was wasting time he could have spent pouring over free agents. If Shurmur said he was watching the game and looking over stats and evaluations of free agents while watching the game jim would say he was spreading himself too thin.
If the Good Time Too sank and Pat Shurmur walked across the water and carried every passenger back to shore jimk would be lambasting Shurmur for not knowing how to swim.
QB is by far the most important position on the team and nobody without an ELITE-level QB wins any more. This outdated model of ball control and defense does not win championships. Hasn’t since the Ravens had the best defense in league history. And drafting other positions of “need” (such as defense) might actually be a significant detriment to team growth. Improving the defense, which is already pretty decent, might result in few extra wins and then where are you? You’re 7-9 with a bum quarterback with no prospects of drafting elite-level QB talent early in the draft. If Heckert thinks that RG is an elite-level prospect, and he’s available at 4, you HAVE to take him.
I’ll be happy with the tee retrieving dog if we can name him Brownie.
geez, porkchop. what’d i do to you?
fact: we are in need of a qb.
fact: we are in need of a wr.
fact: we are in need of o-line.
fact: top prospects were playing an important game on national tv and so opportunity existed to view these prospects in realtime.
opinion: it’s good to have a football coach who likes to watch good college football games.
opinion: it’s good to have a football coach who is interested in his possible draft choices.
fact: porkchop doesnt know me.
opinion: porkchop’s mindreading of me doesnt create a compelling argument for whatever point he’s trying to make.
@jimkanicki I am not concerned by that. I’m quite positive as they start to clarify their draft board Shurmur will have all the tape he could possibly want on any and all of the draft picks the Browns might consider taking.
Actually I take it back. Shurmur probably won’t have access to tape because everything is digital, but you know what I mean. 🙂
Guys, Shurmur doesn’t pick the roster.
Chris@60…..Excellent Points !!!…you are right on the money as far as continuing to draft to an already good defense….it can make you a mediocre team without a great QB..( although at this point mediocrity might be better than what we have had )….You HAVE to take a chance on an elite QB prospect when you can…If you are right on him then you hit the jackpot with winning seasons and playoff appearances and god forbid maybe even a super bowl appearance…..WIth a Blackmon or Richardson you get a couple games at best and become a solid 6-10 maybe ..maybe 7 – 9 team…but absolutely no better….Remember…as you draft to get a little better….SO ARE YOUR OPPONENTS…..
“I know he didnt get that many yards but thats more our offense and the type of receiver he is…..just think if he didnt lead the league in drops…..
What does this tell us????……YOU HAVE TO HAVE A GREAT QB…!!!!”
To me this is counter intuitive. So you are saying that since Greg Little cant catch a pass that hits him directly in the hands the problem is therefore the QB?
I understand that people think we don’t TRY to throw down field but the fact is unless we know the play call we don’t really know. I’ve not seen many plays this year where all two three or four receivers ran two yard curl routes or slants. I’m willing to bet most of those dump plays aren’t because they don’t want to go down field or Colt can’t get it there, it’s because the QB is forced to check down for any number of reasons.
The fact is that even if Greg Little has skill enough to be a number one there is NO ONE to take heat off of him. Teams will always roll a safety on top of him because MoMass and Josh Cribbs just aren’t a threat being single covered.
I’m not saying Colt is the guy but simply getting another QB isn’t going to force teams to not double cover our only “legitimate” (using that loosely) receiver. And it’s not going to get Josh Cribbs to run better routes and it’s not going to get MoMass to stop shying from contact.
@66…..Sorry, my point may have be a bit confusing….What i was trying to say was that we found a potentially good receiver without having to pick high….you can find good receivers in later rounds….look at the steelers…Ward.3rd rd…Wallace 3rd rd….Brown 6th rd….we would kill to have any of them…( Ward iin his prime…the others now..)….its all about talent evaluation and the QB !……It always starts with the QB….Ben and Brady are going to make Wallace and Gronkowski look better than the latter will ever make a QB look good….just sayin….
Of course thats just my opinion and I could be wrong ! 🙂
It doesn’t matter who the receivers are if we don’t have quarterback. The move is and will always be to make the Godfather Offer to the Colts for Andrew Luck.
If they believe RG3 is the guy then fine, but top picks at any position miss. I would rather they get a successful player than take any position based on a perceived need.
I also think unless we are interested in trading up, this discussion is moot. One of three things will happen:
Browns do not trade up. The top 3 picks will not include (in some order) all of Luck, Blackmon, and Griffin. We likely pick the one of those three not yet picked.
Browns do not trade up. The top 3 picks are Luck, Blackmon, and Griffin. We likely trade down (I don’t see us taking Kalil or Claiborne or someone else at 4).
Browns trade up and get the guy they want. If it’s Luck it costs them probably 4+ picks but maybe 3 first rounders. If it’s not, then probably both our first rounders this year.
These are the options we should be debating. The Griffin vs. Blackmon debate is meaningless unless you are counting on the Browns trading up because both will very likely NOT be there at pick #4.
We will continue to have issues at QB until they have a solid line and some options who can catch the ball.
Seriously, what’s the big deal about leaving Colt for one more year, building a line and receiving corps, then adding the stud QB? All Qb’s will fail until they have time to throw, someone to throw to (and a runn game which is also line dependent)
What ended couch’s career? Injury and concussion. What will end Colt’s? Same. And the next guy? And the guy after that?
Not every team is going to get lucky with another Ben who can be injured and effective in a crowd, and not everyone can be lucky like the Bengals with Dalton.
Can we do this right for once before we get to QB #20? I’m so sick of this.
One possibility/scenario I haven’t heard anyone talk about is if/when Peyton Manning becomes available. Not really sure what my opinion is, but if we could sign him for 4-5 years then load up on offensive weapons and a RT with our first few picks I would have to think we’d be a lot better. Peyton makes guys like Garçon, Collie, etc. Into good receivers….who’s to say he couldn’t do the same with Blackmon, MoMass, Little, Norwood, etc? Just some food for thought……
To add to my comment….I know the Colts have said they can afford both, but have heard several guys in the media speculate they’ll cut Manning before his $28M roster bonus is due in March.
I have to say, I’m on the RGIII train. I heard people say his bowl game was his WORST game of the season.
I’m also hopeful we can get his current teammate Wright with the second first round pick we have. They have chemistry already, and more than anything, this team needs SPEED.
Blackmon, would be a good pick, but if you don’t plan on being in the top 10 in the draft for some time, take RGIII. You can get stud receivers and running backs later. I honestly think you should take a QB every year if you aren’t sold on your current guy. A great QB fixes so many issues, it’s worth a pick. Ask the Colts.
How nice would be be to see those two giving the AFC North fits for the next 10 years?
@70 – Because people are drinking the Kool-aide and jumping on the ESPN hype train.
RG3 would be good… but the team needs playmakers. I think people underestimate the value of a good complementary running game.
Colt regressed dearly this year because he didn’t have Peyton Hillis. I remember that whenever he would get hit, Mangini would call a running play and have Hillis smash into the linebacker in retaliation. A true “weapon” in a sense. This allowed Colt to be more comfortable when there was another threat in the backfield. Really, our first legitimate threat at RB since we got back. We looked O.K. through our growing pains when Hillis was there, but when he didn’t play, and either Hardesty or Ogbonnayya was there, you could see that the running game just ran into the line or away from contact, which was a different experience for him.
For those of you that say weapons are overrated – when Peyton Manning was drafted, he had an experienced Marshall Faulk in the backfield, then they went ahead and drafted Edge James with the #4 pick in the draft. They had Marvin Harrison, the 19th pick from 4 years ago just hitting his prime. Drew Brees, when he took over the reigns, had some running back named LaDainian Tomlinson in his backfield – I’m sure that made life easier for him too. Brees actually regressed as well after his first year starting. There are growing pains for the important position in football.
While our receiving corps isn’t prime right now, it has a lot of complements. We would also need a better back than Montario, and we need to bring Hillis back for more smash mouth.
I’d be OK starting over with RG3 – but woudln’t mind if we decided to draft Blackmon with the #4, and LaMichael James in the 2nd round, with a front 7 player with our 2nd first rounder… With those in place I think we can see a different Colt McCoy. I don’t think we should use 2 years of a garbage rebuilding team to fully evaluate the most winningest quarterback in college history that had great accuracy when we had great confidence. Let’s see what the kid can do with some confidence instaed of knee-jerk doubt.
So why are we all sold on Colt?
Well, I would have to say it’s not his NFL play, but
probably his character, and collegiate winning past. Neither produces wins in
the NFL. Yes he is talented, but so are many second string QBs in the NFL. They
(back-ups) would NOT be in the NFL if they didn’t, and yes he needs some
playmaking talent around him. Let’s look
back…when in college Colt completed 72% with under achievers, in the pros 58%
with same! He made lesser talent better then, so why not now? Remember, Greg Little
is a rookie on a rookie team, unlike the pick the Browns could have had in
Julio Jones, whom has a Franchise guy under center. Â If Jones was with Cleveland how would he be
used? The West Coast Offense is a Spread Offense that is used to spread the
field horizontally not vertically, and Colt does not have the arm for a
vertical threat like a Jones or a Green.
Further, everyone has portrayed their thoughts on how
Cleveland GM and staff should use the 2012 draft picks. BLUF, if the Browns
front office will not commit to Colt has the teams future, why should we? He is
undersized, small hands, small arm, average speed, and little talent around
him, all of which do not produce W’s in the AFC North.  But I almost forgot, we like his personality
and his winning collegiate past. Tebow was a winner in college and has arguably
the best personality we have ever seen in sports. I would also say he has not yet
convinced Elway he is capable of winning year in and year out.
Could they get one of the big-name quarterbacks with the
team being so non-committal regarding 2011 starter Colt McCoy? Sure they could,
but is it the right thing to do? Everyone’s opinion is Luck will be taken
leaving only RG III due to Landry and Barkley staying in school. The popular fan opinion is that RG III is not
the right type of QB and we need Talent around Colt. Â Colt played in a spread when at Texas and RG
III ran a spread at Baylor. Difference is
RG III has a big arm and speed to compliment any rushing or passing attack, not
to mention an elusive ability not seen by many to ever play the position.Â
I have read a lot of conflicting ideas with what Cleveland
should or should not do with the upcoming draft, but most reveal not giving up
on the beloved Colt; however adding to the WRs, RBs, OL, DL, and LBs to provide
support. Â Blackmon would be nice to have
on the outside, but it looks like the Rams will get him for their FRANCHISE
guy. Plus guys like Mike Wallace and Victor Cruz are always available later in
the draft (Proven). Trent Richardson is a beast of a RB, but if you draft him
and don’t have a QB to open up the running with completions he becomes useless.
We tend to forget when the Browns had Mack and Byner, we also had Kosar who was
completing passes to Ozzie, Brennan, Langhorne and Slaughter setting up the offense
for success. We also had a defense that was keeping us in close games that were
won because they would outscore the opponent. Not to mention the Browns don’t
see the playoffs during that era with the back-up QB talent of Gary Danielson
(McCoy). So what should the Browns do? Especially since every QB since the
Browns return to Cleveland in 1999 have been mediocre at best. If I were Heckert of Holmgren I would have to
create a timeline for success. I have to find a QB that can make any player,
offense, defense, team better ASAP. Pick up additional talent on O Line, and
the WR positions. If I were H & H I would be happy with our defensive
foundation and go after a pass rushing phenom.Â
The D did not bode well against the run, but remember when your offense
is 3 and out and not scoring the D’s efficiency and productivity is
reduced.Â
If the QB position is not important why have the past
decades best teams like the Steelers, Patriots (Amazing unseen Round 6 pick),
Atlanta, New Orleans, NY Giants, Colts, San Diego, and Green Bay. Cleveland
needs offense there is no way around it. If we are truly rebuilding you take a
Franchise QB when available, but if not available you prepare for his coming.
The Browns are a few key picks from fans watching them in the Playoffs.
Tony Grossi gave his comment in a related article …”I
would give up the two No. 1s this year and one next year for Luck. Now, that
doesn’t mean instant success his rookie season. But having him in place would
enable the Browns to concentrate exclusively on filling out the rest of the
team. Without “the guy” in place, a team is just spinning its wheels. Atlanta
Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff once told me when you don’t have “the guy,” you
waste time, energy and resources searching for him and you don’t get the other
things done.” Now I am not 100% on board, but at some point these types of
risks need to be taken to ultimately move a Franchise over a seemingly
never-ending hump of losing seasons. Atlanta’s GM has a point!
Colts Career
NFL statistics as of Week 14, 2011
Pass
attempts            685
Pass completions      400
Percentage                 58.4
(65% adding 47 drops as completions, not all drops are catchable passes)
TD-INTÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 20-20 (17 INTs were bad throws on good routes,
3 were tipped or poor routes)
Passing
yards             4,309
QB
Rating                   74.5
Â
Go Browns!
I’m a little confused by your logic. The risk of a first round QB is substantially lower than the risk of a first round WR and RB. WR are considered one of the the most volatile positions, with busts and steals all over the league. Getting a Top 5 QB almost always guarantees a solid franchise QB. The only example contrary to this that I can think of in the past few years is Jamarcus Russell (who lacked work ethic, unlike RG3). Remember Braylon Edwards? 3rd overall pick. Reggie Bush? 2nd overall. It is rare to find a a top 5 wr or rb unless they are a complete freak of nature (see Calvin Johnson or AJ Green) and Blackmon is not anywhere near these people.
“Getting a Top 5 QB almost always guarantees a solid franchise QB”
Since ’99, fully half of the QBs taken in the top 5 have been total busts. Couch, Akili Smith, Carr, Harrington, Vince Young, Alex Smith, and Russell.
Yeah, I know Alex Smith is starting now, but that just proves that coaching and offensive linemen are what turns busts into starters and good into elite.