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January 19, 2012
Indians' SS Asdrubal Cabrera
The lines in the sand got a little clearer this week in regard to the Indians’ arbitration-eligible players. Of the seven guys who were potentially going to arbitration with the club*, five avoided their hearings by agreeing to one-year deals: Jack Hannahan, Chris Perez, Justin Masterson, Joe Smith, and Shin-Soo Choo. All received some form of raise, and in total this group will make about $8 million more than they did last year—about a 100% raise. Good work if you can get it, this baseballing.
*Read much more than you ever wanted to know about the arbitration process and how it relates to the Indians here or here or here; let’s be honest: I write about this stuff way too much.
Maybe we’ll talk about those raises another day, or why they were completely expected, or why only a fool would think it possible that Indians’ payroll wasn’t going to increase in 2012—we’re already looking at almost $65 million for opening day, and that’s without signing a first baseman.
But today I’m interested in the players who didn’t sign one year deals. Specifically, I’m interested in Asdrubal Cabrera*, and what the Indians might be doing with him.
*Raffy Perez is the other player who couldn’t reach terms with the team, and they’re WAY off from each other. My quick take? He’s not worth what he’s asking (asking $2.4 million, offered $1.6 million)—especially not to the Indians. We have Nick Hagadone ready to take the other lefty spot in the pen for the league minimum, AND Raffy struck out fewer than 5 batters per nine innings last year. For a LOOGY, that’s just awful. I wouldn’t be sad if he left, to be honest. But I would miss the red glove.
Cabrera is in his second year of arbitration-eligibility, which means a couple of things for the team. First, he’s due a raise for this season. Last year he made $2.025 million, so he should be expecting considerably more just because he’s a second-year eligible player. That would be true even if he didn’t have something of a breakout campaign in 2011, but he did. On top of that, it means that as things stand right now, the team only has control of Asdrubal for two more years: 2012 & 2013. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after that.
And that sort of got me thinking. It struck me as odd that Cabrera was one of the players the team couldn’t reach terms with on a one year deal. He asked for $5.2 million, while the team offered $3.75. Back in October, I predicted that Cabrera could get about $5 million for the 2012 season, whether through arbitration or a contract offer, so obviously I think the team is low-balling him a bit here.
But why? Why would they low-ball one of their best young players? [Enter: “DOLANZ R CHEEPZ!!!1!one!! LMFAO” Thanks for coming!].
My guess is that they don’t want to sign Asdrubal to a one-year deal at all. They want to use the extra time (and perhaps put some pressure on Cabrera and his agent) to work out a multi-year deal. Think about it. Of the seven players, Cabrera is probably the best candidate for locking up with a Shapiro-esque type contract that buys out some early years for less than a player is worth by offering multi-year security. He’s young. He’s fairly durable. He’s a position player—a group that tends, on the whole, to be a safer bet than pitchers. He’s already pretty good, and might be getting better as he approaches the age where most hitters tend to peak (he just turned 26 in November).
None of this is to say that a multi-year deal will get done, or that this is even what the Indians are thinking at all. But if they are buying some time to work out a contract that keeps Asdrubal here through, oh, say 2015, when Fransisco Lindor is projected to arrive on the scene, it would probably be the best signing they could have made this winter.
If, on the other hand, they go to arbitration, Asdrubal will almost certainly be a bit offended by the team’s unwillingness to move off their low-ball offer. And that wouldn’t bode particularly well for the team’s chances of keeping him beyond 2013.
In other words, even though things seem quiet right now, I wonder if the next few days won’t go a long way toward determining the future of Asdrubal’s career and how much of it might be spent in Cleveland.
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Image Source: (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta)
14 Comments
I hope that you are correct.
What does a realistic contract for AsCab look like?
2012- 6 million 2013- 7 million
2014- 8 million
2015- 9 million(team option; no no trade clause)
30 million?
It could also be that a long-term contract is clearly not a possibility. If that were the case, it would make some sense for the Indians to make what they consider a fair, low-end offer regardless of the ill will it would create.
I’ll believe the tribe will go to their first arbitration in 20 years when I see it. Hart begot Shapiro who begot Antonetti, and there remains the institutional fears of the nastiness created by the Swindell arbitration. They try for harmony. We’ll see if Antonetti goes his own way but he may just be applying steady pressure on the player to see what shakes out.
Because players never sulk or request trades?
if we could do a 5 year at an average of 7 per season this is fair to all sides
Are you saying that a lowball offer may cause Acab to sulk and play poorly? Possible, I guess. But considering the way baseball contracts work, I don’t see that being likely. A bad year full of bad attitude would cost Acab way, way more than it would cost the Indians.
I hate saying this because I like Asdrubal, but I’m not sold he is worth that kind of money/years. Was his ’11 power a statistical abnormality? The guy had a .346 SLG in ’10. And as has been discussed here before, every defensive metric rates him poorly. He also had a pretty bad second half of the year.
Signing guys after one or two career years has not been an effective strategy for the Tribe.
Tough call, I like Cabrera a lot and botching this negotiation will be more bad PR for the Dolans. But they cant overpay him either.
As others have mentioned, his defensive metrics are below average in spite of the highlight reel plays. And I think we all question whether his power is sustainable.
If Drubal is smart I think he will take a 5 year deal for around 30 million. It gives him some financial stability in case his power numbers, and value, level out. However, something tells me that he doesnt see it this way. His agent is probably in his ear convincing him that he can be a 12-15 million a year guy.
I dont see arbitration, and the heretofore mentioned “sulking”, happening at all. And I don’t particularly feel that the Tribe’s offer is much of a lowball. Putting a $1-1.5M “cushion” in place for negotiation, I predict they settle at around $4.75M, +/- 200K.
As to longer term, Drubal has time on his side, and the Tribe loses with every month that passes. I’d guess they’ve already exchanged some terms, and it wouldn’t surprise me if a deal gets announced in Goodyear.
5/$30 is in the range of a Tribe offer. 5/$40 wouldn’t surprise me as a final deal. It bears saying that Drubal has barely cleared $3M in his first 5 years. Grabbing $30-40M AND being a free agent again at 31 seems pretty reasonable. Gambling with time, and potential suitors 2 years down the road, seems less wise than getting something done in the next 2 months.
Mea culpa for failing to acknowledge that the Indians don’t have much leverage with Cabrera, in that they really have nobody reasonably close to ML-ready to compete with him. Both sides know that. So screwing around with “fishing expedition” offers, from a Tribe perspective, would be way more harmful than helpful. And this guy limped and gimped his way onto the field the last 60-70 games of the season. The Tribe knows that. Those are the kinds of guys that get paid.
No way Cabrera is going to sign a multiple-year contract with the tribe. 2013 will be his last season in Cleveland because that happens to be the same year Derek Jeter’s contract is up with the Yankees. The Yanks do have a mutual option, but Jeter could very well be playing elsewhere or forced into retirement. Guess who the Yanks will have their sights on.
A good example of how CHEAP the front office and owners are. Cabrera, as of this blog was number 20 as far salary for MLB shortstops!!. That is an insult!! What do you think Detroit would pay him? Hell Peralta(sp) makes over $ 5,000,000 !! Bruce Drennen claims owners don’t dig into their own pockets. That is BULL!! Where the hell did all the $ come from to pay Fielder. Ha! It smelled like pizza. The game has changed. Indian fans will have to wait for salary cap in MLB before they smell any kind of championship. Remember how the Tribe spent in the 90s? My conservative guess is Mike Illitch would gladly pay A.Cabrera 8-10 million.
Cabrera will be gone sooner than later. Just as Lee and CC did. The Indians owner( just for the record is a billionaire as is Illitch. Actually worth more than Illitch, also in that category. Big difference……….Illitch is willing to spend. Both small market teams with opposite goals.