While We’re Waiting… Cavs Preview, Sick D-Line and Browns Draft Position Prospects
December 19, 2011Kyrie Irving Provides Cleveland With a Taste of What’s to Come
December 19, 2011Browns fans are obviously upset this morning and for good reason. The same old script played itself out yet again. At least this time they were competitive, right?
Lots of opinions flew out after yesterday’s 20-17 overtime loss to the great John Skelton and his Arizona Cardinals, but in reality, was it a game that was really important for the Browns to win? Sure, you all want to talk about Seneca Wallace vs. Colt McCoy, the fact that we had a Peyton Hillis sighting, or another horrific special teams breakdown in OT was essentially the play of the game for the Cardinals.I’d rather talk on the most important thing that came out of yesterday.
With the loss, barring a miracle, the Browns have locked themselves into a top six pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Rejoice!
During yesterday’s early slate of games, two teams with four wins each that would have picked ahead of the Browns, took the field as road underdogs. The Miami Dolphins thrashed the Buffalo Bills thanks to over 200 yards rising from the revitalized Reggie Bush. The Dolphins, you remember, left Cleveland on September 25th a hard-luck loser when Colt McCoy took the Browns all the way down the field and hit Mohammad Massaquoi in the end zone for a game-winning TD. They started their season 0-7 and have rattled off five wins in the last seven games. The Washington Redskins went into New York and owned the Giants for four quarters for their fifth win of the year.
That is two teams who the Browns jumped in the draft order with one fell swoop (or should I say one fourth quarter collapse).
As of today, the Colts, at 1-13, sit in the catbirds seat for the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. The Minnesota Vikings and St. Louis Rams would pick second and third at 2-12. The Browns, the Tampa Bay Bucs, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are all 4-10. The Browns finish with games against the Ravens and the Steelers. Sure, this is the NFL where anything can happen (see Chiefs 19 Packers 14), but we all know – the Browns will finish 4-12. The Bucs end their season with road games against Carolina and Atlanta. Odds are they won’t be winning either. Jacksonville closes at Tennessee and at home against the lowly Colts.
The tiebreakers are decided on strength of schedule.
Now if you are of the opinion that the Browns have to draft a QB with the first of their two first round picks, then I’ve got good news for you. Obviously the Colts will either draft, or trade to a team that will draft Andrew Luck with the top pick. The teams currently ahead of, or tied in the loss column, all have their QB’s of the future. The Vikings drafted Christian Ponder last season. The Rams have last year’s rookie of the year and overall #1 pick Sam Bradford in the fold. Tampa Bay has third year man Josh Freeman at the helm, another former first round pick, and the Jags took Blaine Gabbert (who I think has bust written all over him) in the top 10 last year.
So that means, Browns fans, if you should choose, USC’s Matt Barkley and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III will be there for you at six in the worst case scenario. Think the Browns should go RB or WR? The higher the pick, the better chance you get to snag Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon or Alabama RB Trent Richardson.
So get upset if you want about the Browns collapse yesterday. Its all par for the course these days. In the end, nobody will remember this loss, nor will they care about it, if its the difference between getting yourselves a future all-pro playmaker.
(photo via John Kuntz / The Plain Dealer)
73 Comments
if we draft a RB, then I hope that Lamar Miller (UMiami) drops to us in round2. he looks like a McCoy style runner who can do some real damage in both phases.
that said, I hope we find a way to re-up Hillis and not worry about it. we have plenty of other holes to fill.
1A – Barkley/Griffin/Blackmon (need top5 pick)
1B – K.Wright/Barron/J.Jenkins
2 – Adcock/Minnefield/L.Miller/Z.Sanders/Sanu
First pick of the draft should be Richardson or Blackmon. Second first round pick NEEDS, and I severelt stress the word NEEDS to be an OLB who knows what to do when it comes to tackling and stopping a RB. Gocong IS NOT the answer. He is a pass rush LB who has had some great goal line stands but he has been getting owned by every RB just about. DQ Jackson cant do it all on his own. He needs a wingman. We need to find our Terrell Suggs.
I don’t see Blackmon falling to the Browns unless we trade up, especially after the success Green and Julio Jones had this year. There’s people in St Louis and Jacksonville right now having the same discussions about how they need an impact WR. I actually think we have better odds of getting Luck than Blackmon.
Interesting tidbit: The Colts have had the worst record in the league the last three times there was a virtual consensus can’t miss superstar QB available. (Elway, Manning, Luck)
Stick with McCoy into next season. I don’t think he is the long term answer, but he is adequate to hold the spot through this offseason so we can fill other needs. If he doesn’t turn into Brees 2.0 with a full offseason and some more weapons to work with, take a 1st round QB in the 2013 draft.
I will also be quite interested to see if Luck sticks as the #1 overall. I’m not sure you can take a QB with this high of a profile and expectations and expect him to sit quietly on the bench while Manning plays 2-3 more years. I’m not sure Manning and Luck can co-exist for very long. Maybe one season? Either Manning goes, and they draft Luck, or Manning stays, and maybe they go another direction in the draft. I also read that Manning has a $28 million roster bonus due sometime soon…
That, and I heard a stat on the radio the other day…Apparently Luck has yet to face a top 30 defense this season? Will be interesting to see what happens when scouts start breaking him down piece by piece. He’ll probably still go #1 overall, but I’m not sure he’s going to be the slam dunk that everyone is talking about…
I’m tired of seeing Colt scrambling around because the line can’t keep the heat off him. How would you like to be a Browns QB with that kind of protection; he should get hazardous duty pay… Give Colt a chance with a line that blocks and receivers who can catch and run.
RG3
@ClemJax
Kinda hard to let a guy “sit and develop” behind bad QBs and woeful offenses.
@Big Z – that’s my point. If the Browns take a QB in the top 6 this year, they’re telegraphic that McCoy is not the answer and we need the best available replacement as quickly as possible. There’s no possible way they make that pick and then stick them on the bench for 2 years behind McCoy. It’s an all-or-nothing pick in that case, and the odds of “nothing” are way too high to make that move now.
“Creative risk taking is essential to success in any goal where the stakes are high. Thoughtless risks are destructive, of course, but perhaps even more wasteful is thoughtless caution which prompts inaction and promotes failure to seize opportunity.”
-Gary Ryan Blair
TRANSLATION: BITE THE BULLET. DRAFT OUR FRANCHISE QB!
You make a good point, ClemJax, but I don’t think that any successful team is basing their decisions on what the fans would like them to do. Moreover, I don’t think it is a secret that McCoy is not a premier starter in this league. We aren’t fooling anyone by not drafting a quarterback.
The same argument against drafting a high profile quarterback is being made on behalf of teams like Indianapolis who currently have a Hall of Fame quarterback. People say that Manning and Luck can’t co-exist. So…if you can’t draft a top-tier quarterback when you have a top-tier quarterback (Colts, Packers), and you can’t draft a top-tier quarterback when you don’t have a top-tier quarterback (Steelers, Ravens), then when can you draft one?
Again, I just don’t understand why people view quarterbacks as higher risk than other positions. Give me some data and I’ll adjust my view. There are busts at every position. If you need a reminder, see our previous non-quarterback draft picks in the first round (Brown, Green, Warren, etc.).
wrt draft, i think theres a time to be principled and a time to be pragmatic. two examples:
last year the cavs went 4-2 in final six games. it cost them the worst records but it amounts to only a few percentage points of chance in the lottery. twolves tanked to get those ball. karma straightened it out. principled.
last year if the browns had beaten steelers in last game they would have joined a seven way tie with other 6-10 team and with their SOS would have drafted 13th, not 6th. it’s hard to see how that would have been a good thing for the building of the team. pragmatic.
this year, there are two (maybe three, i just dont love griffin like everyone else, lets not go there now) prototype qbs.* we need a prototype qb. there is no chance either will be there past #5. so this year, i’m pragmatic.
The Idea that drafting QBs early is risky is no longer relevant. The risk was you were spending all this money on one player and if he doesnt work out you can’t afford to pay another QB. The new CBA fixed that. QBs don’t get paid any more than any other position.
There’s no more risk in drafting a QB than any other position. And I’d bet that 1st round QBs pan out way more often than 1st round defensive ends (another position of need) and WRs.
No more ‘flyer’ QB’s!! That’s all we’ve seen since the last attempt at one with Couch (don’t try to count Quinn).
Look…it’s really simple in my mind. The QB is the only guy in the offense to touch tue ball on every play. Thus, he has a much bigger impact on the game than a wideout who, on a GREAT day, touches the ball 7-10 times.
You may disagree that the franchise QB is available, and that’s fine. But if you think he is, then you draft him…now.
@ClemJax – it’s the SD Brees/Rivers principle. Brees did not show enough in his first 2 seasons, so they drafted Rivers #4. Brees then went and had himself a probowl year (and blew his shoulder out in the last game). Unfortunately for SD, Brees was a FA and skipped town for NO.
I have no qualms doing the same. Draft a QB (if one falls to our slot). Colt can start the year. If he fails, then we have our QB-insurance on hand. If he has a Brees-style ascension, then we have a highly drafted QB to auction (or Colt depending on who we believe is better long-term).
ROI on QBs is pretty good when they hit.
@63/pepe. oh geez. that sound like a research project and i will take that up.
a couple years ago when the o-lineman vs wr debate was hot, i did my masters’ thesis on the washout rates of 1st rd WRs vs 1st OLs. the 1st round OL is about as safe as it gets. if you cant afford to whiff, go OL.
here’s the messy raw data. (i should really clean up my site.)
http://jimkanicki.com/blog-2/files/909bfa61236ec8c7d33ca71595194bef-7.html
i think we can cool it on the blackmon talk.
the rams have a franchise qb and two solid tackles. i can think of no scenario where they dont get bradford an A level target by taking blackmon.
@jimkanicki – the Rams may love Sanu or think Kendall Wright will drop to them in round2. they may go Claiborne with their pick.
I agree 100% with this column. For those who don’t, please answer this question: would you rather have a couple of more wins in the forgettable 2010 season or AJ Green lining up as the Browns WR? Justin Blackmon is worth a couple of more losses.
I don’t see any team with a need at OT, QB, or WR passing on Kahlil, Luck, or Blackmon. Those guys are as safe as they come and they all have Hall of Fame upside. That’s not hyperbole. Don’t see the Browns landing any of them barring a trade or a winning streak.
Everyone knew Suh was going to great. He’s already one of the best if not the best tackles in the NFL. You can’t pass on talent like that.
Look, I have no idea how to build an NFL team to be successful. If I did, I would have a job in football. But a friend of mine has a damn good point:
If you don’t see the need for a Franchise Quarterback, then explain the Indianapolis Colts???
i felt bad rooting for the browns to lose yesterday.. but ultimately im sick of just missing the greens and berrys of he world because of a meaningless victory late in the season. lose out, draft a playmaker in rg3, barkley, or blackmon first and either a receiver, rb with the other pick in the 1st. take a rt in the 2nd. im sick of 2nd round receivers, give me a 2nd round OL
also, the two names above me are muppets and that is cool.
@ 54 pepe
What about Jeff George?
I kid, I kid…