NBA Lockout: What’s So Bad About 50-50?
October 25, 2011Rocktober – Old School Hip Hop is At My Core
October 25, 2011Despite a quarterback rating of 59.0, several errant passes – one which was intercepted – and never taking a snap within the red zone, Browns quarterback Colt McCoy continues to have the support of his head coach in Pat Shurmur. In Monday’s press conference, freshly removed from a barn-burning 6-3 win over the Seattle Seahawks, Shurmur stated that he continues to see good things out of the second-year kid under center.
“I think Colt’s improving and I’ll stick with what I said [after the game]: I thought he battled,” said Shurmur. “He scrambled once and got a first down, he got outside the pocket a couple of times and got yards and got out of bounds. He did a lot of good things.”
While it isn’t necessarily a good sign when a coach has to hand-pick three specific items to prove that his player is doing some things right, Shurmur isn’t exactly lying. Exaggerating the good and potentially ignoring the bad, yes. Lying, not at all – assuming he truly feels this way. There have been plenty of moments where McCoy has looked like a competent NFL quarterback. The unfortunate part is that these moments were typically sandwiched by insane levels of inconsistency, resulting in a few unfortunate incomplete passes and bootlegs that would run right into a containing defender.
Using the word “improving” can be a bit misleading based on frame of reference. McCoy certainly is not improving over his minimal work last season under Eric Mangini, but he may in fact be improving in certain areas from the first game of the season. With the intricacies of the West Coast offense, the NCAA leader in wins finds himself with a lot to digest. Doing so while opposing defenses are throwing safety blitzes as a means to combat any success has proven to be highly difficult, especially early in contests.
In turn, McCoy finds his name bantered about when fans and media types discuss what is “wrong” with the Cleveland Browns. With the defense looking better each week, the offense – specifically that in the first quarter – has become a focal point, one which continues to be marred with red flags after each marginal three-and-out. Things are not about to get any easier for the Browns offense as they head to the Bay Area to face Patrick Willis and the San Francisco 49ers offense which has managed to slow down established quarterbacks Mike Vick, Josh Freeman and Matt Stafford in consecutive weeks.
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Photo: Scott Sargent/WFNY
107 Comments
@ Garry Owen: What other conclusion can you draw from the recent games we have played other than Shurmur is an idiot? He was outsmarted by the Raiders! When is the last time the Raiders outwitted anyone? Hell, they can’t even trade properly.
Perhaps Colt could be decent, but he’ll never be Super Bowl material so what’s the point? Put him in a Packers/Saints/Whatever uniform and he’d win more games, sure…but he wouldn’t win big. And, isn’t that what every NFL team should trying to do?
I actually think Landry Jones is about as proven a commodity as can be had this draft. Watch him play and tell me you don’t see Eli Manning out there. He has a huge arm and can really spread the ball around. Give me him and Blackmon next draft and we’re 8-8 in one year. As long as Shurmur doesn’t call the plays. Which apparently he STILL doesn’t want to give up, even with a new offensive coordinator: http://morningjournal.com/articles/2011/10/24/sports/doc4ea626eceaa22250160055.txt .
He is as stubborn as he is stupid.
@Oribiasi – No, we didn’t know last year. That was the whole point of this season – to see what we have in Colt McCoy. If others deluded themselves into thinking that Colt was going to be the second coming of Otto Graham, well, that’s their problem. I don’t think the Browns ever thought that. They wanted him in the WCO with a WCO coach and let the season play out. I agreed with that and just wish more people would just relax and let it happen.
The whole point of the Brees in San Diego story is not to say, “oh look how dumb the Chargers were.” It’s to show that it is HARD to know what you have in a QB. San Diego had a Super Bowl winning QB on their roster and didn’t know it. You can say it was a “stupid decision” but no one else at the time thought it was dumb. If you knew it then, well, you are one up on all the other GMs in the NFL.
I want to first be clear that I wasn’t saying to give up on Colt. Clearly, he has this season to prove to the FO and coaching staff that he is making the requisite strides to becoming our starting QB moving forward.
my post was demonstrating that it has been shown for teams in our scenario (bad for seasons on end + bad this season) that drafting a top10 QB has proven to be quite the elixir. no, it does not HAVE to be a top10 QB, but those do have the highest probabilities of being good.
however, I would cool those jets on Gabbert, Ponder, and Dalton. None have been special this year. Ponder was under 50% his first game and threw 2 balls to Woodson, Gabbert has not been good in any sense in JAX and Dalton (best of the non-Cam rookies) is largely overstated in his performance to date (he’s basically where Colt was after the first few games last year, if he continues to improve, then he could be a ‘find’. It is definitely something to watch).
there are 2 real questions as it pertains to the Browns:
1. What will it take for Colt to do this season to make us not draft his replacement?
2. If we draft his replacement, then who do we target (i’m saying we have no shot at Luck)?
Actually, that will be a fun game to play each week… the Where Was Drew Brees At This Point In His Career game. After his 14th game playing as an NFL QB, Drew Brees had just come off a miserable home game against the Oakland Raiders where he completed 53.7% of his passes, threw 3 interceptions, zero touchdowns, and had a 40.6 QB rating.
@ Vengeful Pat: If a car is coming straight for you, I am guessing you wouldn’t say “well we have to be patient, he might swerve first.”
As for Colt, he just doesn’t have it. Can he be a serviceable QB at the NFL level, sure. I’d even say he can be above average, given the right receivers (which we don’t have), a good running game (which we used to have) and a competent coach (ha).
I also resent the implication that I am the only one disgusted with this crap. I seriously doubt it (actually, I know I’m not).
@46- I use to think that too, but I’ve come to believe that QBs either have it or they don’t. If they don’t, no amount of time on the field will make a difference. Sure, they might play at an acceptable level behind a solidly built line, but they’ll never be good enough to win a Super Bowl (outside of Trent Dilfer, that is).
@oribiasi – ALAS…..I have never yet been on a “date” like you speak of. I spend most of my time locked in my apartment worrying about the future of the Cleveland Browns and why they hire people who want to hurt such cute and fluffy animals. I also have an extensive glue collection that I curate and I simply do not have time (you wouldn’t believe the time it takes to dust 278 bottles of glue) to get out as much as I used to.
It doesn’t surprise me that Holmgren would lie about how many people he ‘actually’ interviewed. When he was assembling his staff in Seattle he was notorious for only accepting applicants that brought him a kitten to eat first.
@oribiasi – why does it matter to you so much that he only interviewed 4 people (or 3 people or however many it was)? according to that article, it looks like our final list came down to 6 candidates. I am supposing that we looked at many more candidates in determining who to choose for those physical interviews.
also, Mangini and Rob Ryan were essentially coaching for the job as well their last year. that’s 8 ‘final’ candidates. others Holmgren screened likely weren’t released to the media.
guys like Holmgren have an inner circle and can discuss with their circle candidates and do alot of the back-channel work ahead of time so they don’t have to interview a ton of candidates that do not fit the philosophies that they are trying to shape the franchise in. why is that a bad thing?
@ Mark: If I had the time to look back in the WFNY archives I bet I can find dozens of people praising Colt and saying that he was ready to take it to the next level this year. I doubt there would be many people saying “well, we’ll just have to wait and see…we don’t know what we have yet…blah blah blah.”
Let’s not forget that NFL analysts that research teams for a living all thought the same thing; Colt was on his way up. Can you honestly say he looks better than year than last year?
@ stin4u: So you’re the one with the pot farm they seized earlier this year!
http://www.ohio.com/news/ohiocentric/marijuana-plant-seizures-exploding-in-rural-ohio-1.178569
Deep thoughts after scrolling through all 35 comments, some red-meat angry.
I could barely read WFNY’s NBA post today. If we play basketball this year, that’s ok, if not, whatever, like when someone offers you pizza at 4 in the afternoon and you say, “I could eat.” Or not.
But you want to talk about a new coach and a young QB on a team that’s been incompetent for years? Adrenaline rush, baby!! Back and forth, all day, you say this, I say that, again and again and again. Maybe Al Lerner really was a genius, what a deal he got for $300 very large. And how incompetent was Modell to kill this money cow.
@50 – While I get your point and agree with it(“give Colt time”), can we PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE stop comparing every QB (especially short ones) who draws criticism to Drew Brees? Brees is the one-in-a-hundred exception to the rule. Just about every other QB who “just needs more time” turns out to be a bust. Or, at best, mediocre.
@ mgbode: You are supposing when you should be hoping. Hoping that Holmgren spent more than three interviews to pick a coach. Also, don’t count Mangini; we’re both adults and we both knew he wasn’t coming back once Herr Holmgren spoke late in the season.
Look, I had a lot of faith when Holmgren came in…but please tell me what I should base my faith on now? The defense? We’ve played crap teams? Their record? See the previous comments. The coaching? Don’t get me started. The special teams? AH! See what I mean? There is nothing you can hang your hat on here.
@ NJ: Thank you, sir/madam. You said it all right there. Now, prepare to be chastised for calling a spade a spade.
I find it funny how many Mangini backers complain about how Mangini got a bum deal here because Mangini didn’t receive enough time to get things done, yet now they’re completely gleefully to unabashedly Mangini Mangini’s replacement.
@oribiasi – see, the problem is that I have no reason to take your word for the supposedly known fact that Colt McCoy “just doesn’t have it” after his 14th game playing as an NFL QB (and 6th game in a new offense). So I guess you don’t care about Drew Brees, Eli Manning, or Donovan McNabb, or any good QB who took time to reach his potential? I’m jumping out of this argument… there are zero facts behind it to interest me. It’s your eye test versus logical reasoning… there’s just zero reason at this point in his career to think that Colt McCoy cannot be a Superbowl caliber quarterback. Zero.
@oribiasi – That’s a bit of a rookie mistake my friend, it’s alright you will learn (or maybe you’ll pull a Colt!1!!). Glue is actually made from animals, those are the ones that don’t grow from the dirt. But you did convert one third down here, a pot IS involved in glue making. Nicely done.
@NJ – who are these other quarterbacks you speak of? I’m talking about guys who showed accuracy and natural leadership in college with the same physical attributes and defining characteristics coming out of college as Drew Brees. I can’t compare a guy like that to him? Who else would you put in that boat?
ok, I think I have it all figured out.
Shurmur < Daboll
but, let's not forget
McDaniel < Shurmur (Bradford has 'regressed' this year)
Fox / McCoy < McDaniel (Denver's passing offense 'regressed' this year)
Daboll < Sparano / Dan Henning (Miami's passing offense 'regressed' this year)
Henning is unemployed, so obviously he is the answer to all of our problems.
Either that, or having no offseason activities have made it difficult for most teams that have switched offensive systems and/or QBs (Cam Newton being the obvious glaring exception).
(yes, we need Colt to rise above that and show progress and move this team forward)
@ Vengeful Pat: For every quarterback that did make it after being “given some time” I am sure there are dozens who never did.
I disagree with some of the players you mentioned, especially McNabb and Manning. Second year in the league he had 21 TDs, 13 INTs, and 3,365 yards passing. Doesn’t sound like he needed too much time there, does it? Just because you *heart* statistics/facts so much, here is a little gem for you: McNabb only started 6 games the year before he put up those numbers.
Eli Manning is another bad example on your part: year two, his stats were 24 TDs, 17 INTs and 3762 yards. Hmm…something seems weird here…it’s almost like McNabb’s SECOND YEAR.
Got anything else?
@ stin4u: Well, at least you made me smile on a Tuesday. Now, please go drink some more Kool-Aid and catch God riding on an asteroid ASAP!
@ mgbode:
We absolutely have no shot at Luck. We’ve already won 3 more games than the front-runners (MIA and IND) – and beat both of them head-to-head. I don’t see that trend “improving” (if improving means we might be in position to draft Luck). That leaves us with guys that have college resumes no better – in my opinion – than McCoy’s. In short, I don’t see his replacement anywhere on the horizon. Ergo, giving up on McCoy just isn’t an option right now (but I don’t interpret YOUR comments as suggesting that).
@ oribiasi
It does nothing good for your tenuous credibility to claim that an NFL coach – with vastly more knowledge and experience in the game of football than you have – is an “idiot” or should be riding the “short bus.” It just makes you seem angry and bitter – and frankly more than a little obsessed. (Well, okay, you sound like emotional Joe Clevelandfan.)
@68- I don’t follow the college game at all so if they had similar college careers and skill sets coming out, fair enough.
I just know that I have heard literally DOZENS of NFL draftees (Troy Smith being the first to spring to mind) garner comments like, “he’s the same height as Drew Brees!” as though that proves something.
@69- Daboll protected McCoy and asked very little of him. Shurmur has high expectations of him and has asked him to lead this team. The first way may have been better at getting us wins (or not), but I think Shurmur’s way will give Colt the opportunity to show us if he can play in this offense.
First an answer to your question:
“Look, I had a lot of faith when Holmgren came in…but please tell me what I should base my faith on now?”
the drafting for one. especially at the top of the draft were we have been accustomed to busts.
another is Jauron. most of us on here (especially myself) were expecting a horrendous unit at first that would grow as the season went forward (hopefully). Jauron has been masterful so far with the defense and you only get credit for stopping the teams that are on your schedule.
the STs are terrible. the offense has been subpar. we need both to improve. but there are signs for hope.
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as for the Holmgren interview process – if you truly believe that Holmgren threw 3 names in a hat (including a minority candidate) and just picked a guy because he once coached with his uncle and shared an agent, then there is no use debating.
holmgren had at least a year to cultivate a list and talk with the littany of people he knows across the NFL about the candidates (and ask if he had missed any). realistically though, coaches constantly talk to each other about other coaches and who they respect and which young guys are on the rise and such. it’s their ‘office gossip’. it doesn’t mean that Holmgren picked the right candidate (time will tell), but it also doesn’t mean he haphazardly selected this one.
McCoy is going to be fine. He went from a “Football For Dummies” offensive playbook used by Daboll and is now trying to absorb the West Coast Offense on the fly. Give him a chance to learn the offense and get him some weapons not named “Robiskie”.
@oribiasi, your first point is completely ridiculous. What does it matter if 10,000 other guys failed? They’re not the guy we’re talking about. And yes i’ve got something else… I’m talking about 14 games into starting, not 2nd year into starting. Go back and tell me how those guys were doing 14 games into their career. Better yet, go back and tell me how they’re doing 6 games into a new offense.
I do heart stats because they mean something. Both QBs you are trying to throw back in my face completed a horrible 50-something % of their passes in their second year, but even so you should be looking more at their first year stats as neither came into a new offense in their second year.
@ crobarred
What if there was a 6’6″, 225, 4.2 forty, hands-of-glue receiver in college named Robiskie Jones? Would you consider him? I know I would.
@NJ – that’s not me… I actually research players. Troy Smith’s best comparison now is Baltimore’s backup QB, Tyrod Taylor. If you want to compare stats, height, weight, ability… they’re basically clones of each other.
@ Garry Owen: I’ve been citing stats all day but I guess that is what passes for tenuous credibility here. I am guessing if I had more of the “let’s just be patient guys, it’ll be fine, buy some more tickets and gear please” attitude I’d be considered more intelligent, right?
Don’t you want more from the team that you support or cheer for? Maybe it doesn’t matter to you all that much, and that’s fine. But then don’t make comments.
@Garry – I agree with you as long as Colt shows more improvement this season. And, definitely with no shot at Luck. Also, I am not as big on Jones, Barkely, or Tannehill as many others. Brock Osweiler looks better to me than those guys but he definitely has his own risks (trusts his arm too much and ends up throwing too many INTs).
@ Vengeful Pat: Once more, please tell me why I should care about new offense, etc. He isn’t learning Mandarin Chinese, he is learning the West Coast Offense.
EVERY other team had a poor off-season due to the lockout. We had it worse, with a new coach. Sure, I will admit that; although, it does make one wonder why it seemed wise to switch with a lockout looming.
If McCoy finished with the second year numbers that McNabb or Manning had, then I’d be sold right now. Trouble is, he is on pace for like half of those figures.
@oribiasi – I didn’t play football past middle school, so I don’t really know how big these playbooks are or what is involved, but the way I imagine it is that it’s pretty tough to learn a new offense. You’re not just learning where each wide receiver, running back, fullback, and tight end goes, but you’re learning which guy has the “hot route”, what your progressions are, etc and you’re doing it for at least 50 plays, maybe more like 100. Then you’re still learning how to read defenses (they may play you differently in your west coast offense system than Mangini’s system), you need to know where to put your protections and where the holes are in your protection, etc. I mean, I think there’s a good amount to learn and keep in your head.
@Garry: Yeah I’d consider him but if he has the same issues getting open as our current Robiskie, he can join his brother in name on the pine.
One of my biggest complaints about the Browns since they’ve “come back” is the lack of stability. I want to win as badly as anyone but it takes time. It starts with the owner. The front office turnover. Then the coaching carousel. Each coach wanting to bring in “their guys” and changing out the offensive and deffensive systems. There is so much turnover that you can’t build anything. Every four years it’s a rebuild of the franchise.
I’m hoping with the hiring of Holmgren and Heckert that things will stabilize. It is clear that they want to build the foundation through the draft. They have a QB of the future with McCoy. It is ridiculous to think that after 14 games you have an idea as to what the kid can do. Is he Andrew Luck? No..he most likely is not. But I’d rather have him in the system for another year then drop a first round draft pick on a QB who may or may not pan out (as in the Browns will not be in line for Luck) and then have this same discussion in another 2-3 years.
@o:
Man, is that really where we’re going with this?
Okay. I accept your invitation. I’ll not comment anymore. But not because I don’t “care.”
About the Browns, anyway.
[All: Forgive me for my part in “cleveland.comming” the conversation. It’s the unfortunate risk and too-often reality of my presence on these here interwebs. I’m gone. Fading away. MacArthur-style.]
Garryowen!!
For soon ’tis known from when we came;
And tearing all before us.
Where’re we go they dread the name
Of Garryowen in glory.
Then hurrah for our brave commanders!
Who lead us into the fight.
We’ll do or die in our country’s cause,
And battle for the right.
And when the war is o’er,
And to our home we’re goin’
Just watch the step, with our heads erect,
When our band plays, “Garryowen.”
In other words, it might not be like learning Mandarin Chinese, but I bet it’s about as tough as learning German 🙂
@85 – standard Mandarin or Shanghei dialect?
@oribiasi (#81) – “If McCoy finished with the second year numbers that McNabb or Manning had, then I’d be sold right now. Trouble is, he is on pace for like half of those figures.”
2011 Colt McCoy 1377yds 8TDs 4 Ints
16 game pace = 3672yds 21TDs 11 Ints – 56% 5.5YPA
2nd year McNabb = 3135yds 21TDs 13Ints – 58% 5.9YPA
2nd year Eli = 3762yds 24TDs 17Ints – 52% 6.8YPA
So, he is on par with McNabb (with more attempts) but not nearly the YPA of Eli (but less Ints and higher % as well). TDs pretty even for the season with both.
Umm, you were saying?
@87- As the kids would say: AW, SNAP!
@ mgbode: I’d be really impressed/surprised if he achieves those numbers. I didn’t do the math (I’m not obsessed) but I can see your point and I concede it, of course. Colt could be as good as those two were in their second years.
Let’s talk at the end of the season, though.
@ mgbode: Since you seem good at this, give me his 16 game pace based on his six games from last season.
After reading all this idiotry the only thing I could come up with is oribiasi knows everything and I believe him to be Art Modell messing with all of us.
Yes I made that word up in case you were wondering.
normally, I would provide something snarky and say “divide numbers by games played, multiply by 16” but since we might be able to end the “myth of Colt regressing this season” I’ll play along:
Colt played in 8 games last season (all starts)
1576yds 6TDs 9Ints – 61% 7.1YPA
16game pace = 3152yds 12TDs 18Ints
So, he was significantly better in both % and YPA last year, which is impressive. That is until you realize that it came at the cost of huge INT numbers (even bigger when you realize how many fewer attempts he had) and low TD totals (though Hillis stole alot of those chances).
This was the rare WFNY comment section that actually changed my opinion about something. While I still don’t think he’s the guy, I feel a little more hopeful that Colt is not complete garbage.
@ Chris: Boy, I hope I’m wrong brah. I really do. I want this team to succeed very much but when I see some of the idiotry (haha) on the field and in the locker room (“We only need to score 4.) it makes me worried.
HAHA its an awesome word
oribiasi, I think you’re more than worried.
And that’s OK. Everyone needs to get through this season however they can.
Me, I drink a lot. That’s my coping mechanism.
Gene Hackman didn’t star in a movie until he was 31 years old. Maybe Colt McCoy will win two Oscars. We just don’t know. The Brees /McCoy comparisons are ridiculous.
@NJ – I am not convinced yet either. But, hopefully he continues to progress. Honestly, it’s been baby steps this year and we were all hoping for something more. And, the most difficult progression is from mediocre (which he is approaching) to good. We’ll see if he can get there.
Hey, at least our starting QB isn’t Ken Dorsey (anymore)