Assessing the Indians Offseason Options: A Look at our Trade Chips
October 12, 2011Will Shurmur Stop the Cleveland Coaching Carousel?
October 12, 2011
If the 2011-12 NBA season becomes completely canceled (something not out of the realm of possibility), the assets acquired in the deal which ultimately sent LeBron James to Miami could play a integral role come this spring.
ESPN’s Chad Ford recently penned a piece discussing the possible outcomes of the 2012 NBA Draft in the event there is a complete cancellation of the 2011-12 season; we have already seen the first two weeks canceled and a potential decertification of the NBPA would be equivalent to a “six-month reset button,” as one league source put so poetically. In Ford’s words, the league has several options as to how they will approach a draft that will be rife with talent: re-do the lottery with the 2011 odds, have a league-wide lottery which would equal-weight all 30 teams, or merge the two in a weighted lottery akin to that of the NHL.
In two of the three scenarios, the Cavaliers would have a fairly decent advantage in terms of getting compensated for James packing his bags last offseason. The first is obvious; the Cavaliers won 19 games last season and would have the second-best odds at the first-overall selection, picking no later than fifth overall. The second option, which would seem insane from a poor-record point of view, might not be so bad after all. Here’s what one GM said to Ford:
“How is it fair that teams like the Lakers or Mavericks or Heat have an equal shot of winning the lottery? You’re saying LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh need the No. 1 pick the same way a depleted team like the Cleveland Cavaliers do? I don’t think so.”
Eu contraire. In the deal which sent James’ to Biscayne Bay, the Cavaliers – on top of acquiring a slew of draft selections – earned the right to swap picks with the Heat in 2012. Alas, if the Heat were to “win” an equal-weighted lottery, Chris Grant and company would gladly take that pick from them, slotting Pat Riley’s top-heavy squad down to wherever the Cavaliers would have selected otherwise.
Also worth mentioning is the Cavaliers getting the Sacramento Kings’ pick in 2012 if JJ Hickson’s new employer falls out of the “lottery.” All hypothetical, sure, but with the league more worried about the upcoming season rather than ironing out what-ifs, it’s what we have to work with.
That said, an NHL-type lottery could ultimately be the worst-case scenario for the Cavaliers as this scenario calls for past-season records (plural) to come in to play. Yes, the Cavs were deplorable last season when it came to wins and losses, but they provided NBA-best records in the two seasons prior. This is undeniably the most level-headed of options, but not one that can properly account for the fluctuation in a handful of organizations; teams like Phoenix and Utah could also be burdened, further grouping Dan Gilbert with Robert Sarver.
At this stage, its fruitless to fret about the unknown. Just know that as the 2012 NBA Draft draws closer, the Cavaliers will have options at their disposal.
9 Comments
that would be hilarious if an equal weight lottery gets put together ‘quickly’ and the ‘what-if’s’ are not ironed out properly.
then, at the draft as Pat Riley is celebrating winning the #1 overall pick, Dan Gilbert walks over and delivers the news to him. now that would be theater (and never happen because Riley is too calculating not to know that, but still fun to think about)
Please bring back the NBA! I just picked up some new lockout gear.
Do we receive the right to swap with the Heat AND to their 1st pick (top 14 protected)?
Meaning – is the ‘swap’ also Top 14 protected, or is it unprotected?
While I would miss the NBA this year, it is nice to know the cavs could benefit from not playing for a year (expiring contracts and such).
I don’t understand why a 3-5yr cumulative record would be “more fair”, than re-doing the lottery. Now you are rewarding continued incompetence even more.
I’d suggest an actual weighted lottery, where there are 1000 balls redistributed as last year, and another 1000 split evenly amongst all teams (so each playoff team would have ~30 balls, or 1.5% chance of winning)
Narm – I’m not sure I’m following.
Not sure if this helps or not, but 2012 is only the ‘swap’ year along with their second-round pick. The first-round picks that the Cavs get from the Heat are between 2013 and 2017.
@Swig: that would take a lot of balls.
@ Scott – thanks – I thought we had the right to swap AND receive their first rounder in 2012. Which made no sense to me.
Thanks
This will never happen, but any chance of our big Trade Exception getting extended? That would have HUGE value in a Hard Cap league.
What a bonus no season, rich babies out of work and the Cavaliers getting top draft picks. That’s to much of a win, win, win situation for it to happen.