NFL Draft: WFNY Roundtable, Part III
April 27, 2011Peyton Hillis Wins Madden ’12 Cover
April 27, 2011
There is a generally accepted NFL Draft Pick Value Chart that most NFL front offices use to gauge value of picks for trade purposes. It is a point system where the first pick is worth 3,000 points and Mr. Irrelevant is worth two points. The idea being that if you wanted to trade the 25th pick in the draft with a value of 720 points for the 6th pick of the draft worth 1600 points, you would have to make up somewhere in the neighborhood of 880 points.
If you have the 25th pick in the first round, chances are you have the 57th pick in the second round which carries a value of 330 points. In essence, when you add up your first and second picks (720 + 330 = 1050) you are still drastically short of the 1600 you need to get into the sixth spot. In other years, a team could make up ground like that by trading a veteran player. Without that option this year, teams will have to mortgage the future and trade future picks.
It is 100% worth it to mortgage the future for this year’s draft.
I am going to let you in on a little secret. The NFL Draft Value Chart is out of date.
The value chart has been used for years. It was even (probably) used as the Browns traded out of the 5th spot in 2009 when the Jets drafted Mark Sanchez. You’ll remember Sanchez as the guy who got a gaudy five year $50 million deal with $28 million in guarantees. The pick that the Jets traded for was worth 1700 points according to the chart. That means they had to trade enough assets to the Browns to make up 1700 points. The Jets traded the Browns the #17, #52, Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam and Bret Ratliff. The two picks were worth 1,330 points alone even before the players were added. That is how much the pick was worth even though the Jets were going to have to pony up an extraordinarily large contract to Mark Sanchez. But what if they didn’t have to pay him that much money?
Assuming that whatever conditions the NFL returns to in 2011 include a set rookie salary wage scale, then how much is a pick really worth? Significantly more points. So, if the Browns’ pick this year at #6 has been worth 1600 points in the past, what is it worth today?
In 2010 the Seattle Seahawks selected Russell Okung 6th in the draft and ended up giving him a 6-year $58 million contract with about $30 million guaranteed. Presumably under whatever new deal the NFL strikes, the 6th pick in the draft will not get anywhere near that amount of money. Additionally, because it will be set in stone, the rookie will be guaranteed to be in camp and practicing on time. Given those two huge risks will be contractually mitigated, what premium is placed on the top-end picks in the NFL draft now?
Nobody really knows for sure. One thing I do know though is that I would be looking to take advantage of the arbitrage and get into this year’s draft at all-time low prices. If you were ever going to mortgage the future to get into the first round, you should do it this year. The Browns have been rumored (however much you believe it) to be trying to trade with the Vikings for the 12th pick in this year’s draft. Under the current scale that pick is worth 1200 points. Under next year’s system once the value chart has seemingly been updated, that pick would be worth significantly more.
If you were shopping in the store and you could buy bread for $1 a loaf, wouldn’t you buy an extra loaf if you knew in a week it was going to be significantly more money?
9 Comments
I think the draft value chart is completely absurd in general. There is no way two mid-late first round picks is less valuable than a top 10 pick in my opinion. I would trade a top-10 pick for 2 first rounders in a heart beat if it was possible, but no team would ever do that. The talent gap just doesn’t match the point gap. I mean, by the end of the 1st round you’re talking about players being 1/3rd the value of the top pick which is just insane. No way players like Jimmy Smith or Corry Liuget are worth 1/3rd as much as Cam Newton.
I just feel it’s a stupid system because it’s truly absurd the amount of picks/compensation it actually takes to make up points.
Also, as far as I’ve understood it, the 2010 CBA will likely be carried over to 2011 until a new CBA is reached. This means we sadly won’t likely see a rookie wage scale until the 2012 draft.
@Nick – this year, with Cam Newton, maybe you are correct. the trade value chart needs to be more of a fluid thing and used as a baseline, not a rule. it’s possible this draft is more depth than elite talent, and that it doesn’t hold as much.
but, if Patrick Peterson is truly the Charles Woodson clone that people claim he is going to be, then wouldn’t he be worth more than Jimmy Smith + Corey Liuget even if they end up being solid starters for their respective teams?
Elite talent always comes at a premium and you are more likely to get that elite talent at the top of the draft.
this post from the other thread now fits here better, so I’ll add it:
Here are some of our ‘options’ if we do decide to trade down trying to match trade value (picking one from each region of the draft for examples)
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
#6 + #70 = 1840pts
#9 + #40 = 1850pts (w/ Dallas)
#17 + #28 + #60 = 1910pts (w/ NE)
#6 = 1600pts
#12 + #43 = 1670pts (w/ Minn)
I like the NE trade the best because we then have the ammunition to actually get back into the 1st round if someone drops we really like (#37+#60 =~ 20th overall selection). 3 1st round picks from our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks (possibly Watt, Carimi, and Liuget)
@Craig – the only problem with the trade value chart bread example you use is that Jimmy Johnson created (or stole depending on which source you believe) the trade value chart ‘before’ the top draft picks were receiving inordinate amounts of money.
therefore, the top picks next year (or perhaps this year) may return to actually being worth what the chart says instead of being worth less these past 10 or so years, which would explain the relative lack of mobility with those picks.
I would argue that the point difference is because at #6 you have a wider range of players to choose from. If the team sitting at 23 needs ONE impact player, they have a better chance of getting him at #6. So, to them, it’s probably worth Jimmy Smith and Corey Liuget for the opportunity to select the guy they need/want.
It’s not just about value of the specific players. It’s about the value of selecting in the spot, and the opportunity to pick from a deeper talent pool.
Not doubting teams use this value chart, but it seems so skewed in places, like the value drop off between the overall #2 to #4 pick and the relatively low value of second round picks. Remembering Butch’s infatuation with Winslow, which led him to give them our #7 overall for Detroit’s #6, for cost us our #37 overall. Using this chart, Butch “only” overpaid by 350 points – more than nominal but not huge. But doing that to move up a single slot was huge, egregious for an organization that needed talent badly. Aside from the details of that example – Butch would likely have blown the second pick anyway, the Lions wanted Roy Williams all along anyway – my point is just that it looks to me like the very highest picks are way overvalued and second rounders undervalued.
Anyway, I would love us to get an extra third rounder. Not sure how we don’t have to draft a pass-catching RB given Montario’s injury history. There should be some good ones there in the third. If H & H are determined to use a third, fourth or fifth rounder on another QB project, we just need more picks if they want to try to fill the multiple needs without free agency.
If Patrick peterson or AJ green isnt there, I say trade down to 8 with TN so they can get a qb and we can get Julio or Prince and their 3rd rounder.
With the new court ruling, the league should be “open for business” allowing players to be included in the trades. From everything I understand (mostly from PFT) the league is in contempt of court by not opening the league. That doesnt mean FA has to ensue, but players could be involved in trades adding yet another dynamic to the draft.
Also on the chart, the 67th pick is worth more than EVERY PICK in the 7th round. I think I’d rather have 32 shots at it.