Browns Content to Be Competitive and Developing
September 7, 2010Da Clip Show: Keeping an Eye on the Tribe’s AAA Squad – 9/7/10 Playoffs Edition
September 7, 2010
Online sports book extraordinaire Bodog.com unveiled their latest batch of odds that range from which teams are most favored to win the Super Bowl all the way down to how many games Browns third-string quarterback Colt McCoy will start for 2010. And if we can get past the 100/1 odds of a Vince Lombardi trophy landing in Cleveland, we will find that the future does not appear bright in the eyes of one line-setting company.
We discussed the 5.5-game over/under for the Browns 2010 win total just last week. But what we did not delve in to is the fact that the considerably low line is not only a function of a tough schedule, but one that appears to be dampened by poor player performance.
Starting quarterback Jake Delhomme currently has an over/under for total passing yards of 2,500.
Here are the passing totals of the last eight seasons for the Cleveland Browns:
2009 – Brady Quinn: 1,339
2008 – Derek Anderson: 1,615
2007 – Derek Anderson: 3,787
2006 – Charlie Frye: 2,454
2005 – Trent Dilfer: 2,321
2004 – Jeff Garcia: 1,731
2003 – Kelly Holcomb: 1.797
2002 – Tim Couch: 2,842
Alas, a pegged yardage total of 2,500 puts Delhomme somewhere between Charlie Frye’s 2006 season of a 4-12 team and that of Tim Couch in 2002 when the Browns went 9-7. The sad news is that the Browns have only had two seasons of greater than 2,500 yards in this span. Good news is that Bodog at least feels that Jake will be better than the majoirity of his predecessors.
In terms of to whom Delhomme will be throwing the ball, Bodog sees things as a three-way split between Mohamed Massaquoi (650 yards), Brian Robiskie (400 yards) and Joshua Cribbs (375 yards). Massaquoi led the Browns in receiving yardage last season with 624, providing this season with a minimal increase over the total from a year ago. If there is any silver lining here, it is that Bodog sees at least some participation from the Browns’ receivers instead of relying on an equal amount of receptions (34) from running back Jerome Harrison. What these yardage totals also show is that Delhomme may be hitting his tight ends and running backs a lot more than initially anticipated.
Speaking of Jerome Harrison, Bodog sees a considerable decline in the running back’s game-by-game production. Though he is a featured back this season, Harrison is only anticipated to have 800 yards and 5.5 touchdowns, both listed as his current over/under marks. Last season, Harrison managed to scrape together 862 yards and five touchdowns, the bulk of which was accumulated in the final month of the season after Jamal Lewis hit the injured reserve.
All of this appears to have a trickle-down effect on head coach Eric Mangini who (once again) finds his name in the spotlight of those coaches that may not be asked back come 2011. Presently, Bodog has their coaching-specific bet favoring the chance that Mangini will notbe back come week 1 of next season, earning those that bet in his favor $160 for every $100 sacrificed at present day. To earn any winnings on Mangini being replaced, one would have to sacrifice $200 to win $100, reflecting current odds of a 66.6 percent chance towards his dismissal.
Oh, and for those curious about the abovementioned Colt McCoy line…the over/under for his starts is set at 0.5. And if you believe the rest of the above to be any indication of the future, the “over” on this one may not exactly be a bad move.
4 Comments
Man, I knew it was bad in the past, but I had totally forgotten that Kelly Holcomb only threw for 1.797 yards in ’03. Less than 2 yards in the entire season!
A lean era in Cleveland football history to be sure.
Great article headline…terrible stats. Those numbers hurt my eyes.
While the o/u lines and spreads are always very interesting, its important to note that they do not necessarily represent what Vegas “thinks” will happen. They have to set the lines wherever they feel they can get the most action overall and more importantly, the most evenly placed action on both sides of the bet.
Even if they thought there was a pretty decent chance that the Browns are a darkhorse this year and they will win 7-8 games, they could never put the o/u at 7.5 because the public would pounce on the under. Vegas may still believe themselves to be accurate on the 7-8 win prediction, but they cannot risk the possibility of being wrong and paying out big time.
Therefore, while the vegas lines are often used as a good gauge of a non-biased, well informed prediction, they are more accurately a better reflection of the general public’s perception of a team/game/individual. Which I think we know is a)not always well informed or correct and b)almost never in favor of the browns.
What Tommy said.
If any of those lines were higher, there would be heavy weight on the unders by the rest of the betting public. The last thing Vegas wants is weighted betting.