SABR-Toothed Triber: Vetting the Top Draft Picks—Stats & Scouts

It’s old news by now, but the MLB draft is now complete, and the Indians walked away with a boatload of (read: 50)  new, young players.  Between now and August 16^th, the job is to sign as many of the picks as possible and assign them to the minor league system to continue their development.

Today I thought we’d take a close look at two of the early round picks.  I’ll certainly include some traditional scouting for each player profiled, but since I haven’t seen them in person, I’ll try to keep most of my opinions to what the numbers can tell us.

Let’s start with our first round pick, Drew Pomeranz.  He was selected fifth overall out of Ole Miss, after pitching for the Rebels for three seasons.  According to Nick James at PNR scouting, here’s his repertoire:

“Fastball – Sits 88-92 mph and Pomeranz can maintain velocity into the 7th and 8th inning. Command of pitch is below-average, but he can throw to general quadrants and can pound the lower half when he is on. Hides ball fairly well, helping velocity to play-up some.

Curveball – Pomeranz’s breaking ball is a big 12-6 curve thrown with a spike grip. Sits 77-79 mph. He gets good bite and plus depth, and it is a plus pitch now when on. As he continues to develop, it should be a consistent plus. Doesn’t yet maintain command from start-to-start. Shows understanding of how to set-up and bury the pitch.

Change-up – Straight change thrown with decent arm speed out of the same slot as his fastball. He can throw too hard, and runs the offering anywhere from 79 mph up to 85. Third best pitch by a fair amount right now, but he shows some feel for it and could develop it into an average offering down the line.”

Pomeranz himself has admitted that his changeup is a work-in-progress, and knows that before he can ascend to the Majors, he has some real work to do.  Nonetheless, as long as he can develop a third (and maybe fourth) pitch, he certainly profiles as a starter: he’s got the workhorse build (6’5” 230 lbs.), the easy motion, and the maturity to stick.  I’ve seen comps from Andy Petitte to Chuck Finley, for what it’s worth.

The SEC is a fairly strong conference, so Pomeranz did face some decent competition.  Keith Law has compared the SEC to somewhere between high-A ball and AA, though the comparison is tough to make, as age also plays into any parallels you draw.  Either way, here are his numbers at Ole Miss:

He certainly developed a few discernible skills over his time at Ole Miss.  Strikingly, his OPS against dropped from nearly .800 in his freshman year to below .600 in his junior year.  His strikeouts also trended in the right direction, going from 10.25 K/9 to 11.71 to 12.43.  Obviously, the competition played a role in those gaudy numbers—much of the scouting video I saw showed batters chasing fastballs out of the zone, and that just won’t happen as he works his way up in pro ball.  His walk rates look slightly high to me, and didn’t necessarily trend in the direction you’d like to see.  Nonetheless, his lowest K/BB ratio was 2.70, and if he can maintain that, he’ll certainly be an effective pitcher.

Pomeranz’s upside looks to be real: he’s got a starter’s body and presence, his curve can be a dominant, swing-and-miss pitch, and with additional coaching, his command and control will continue to improve.  Is he a future ace?  Probably not.  But with the right development, we’re not just dreaming: he looks like a solid #2 starter, and his ascent through the minors should be relatively quick.  As a junior, he’s also about as signable as a #5 pick can be.  I would put the odds of him signing at 95% or more.

Let’s move on to the Indians’ second round pick.  The Tribe selected Levon Washington with the #55 pick out of Chipola Junior College.  Washington is not yet 19 years old, a speedy CF who may have to switch to 2B in pro ball due to a weak arm and problematic reads.  Washington was drafted in the first round by the Tampa Rays in last season’s draft, but reportedly turned down $1.1 million to go play JUCO ball instead.  Reports have already leaked that the Indians have a $1.55 million offer on the table that Washington will likely accept, but no over-slot deals will be approved until August.

According to the Baseball Rumor Mill:

“Washington has quick wrists and good plate coverage and showed some ability to use the opposite field; his power is below-average, and his feel for the game isn’t great. He’s at least a 60 runner, getting down the line in as little as 4.05 seconds from the left side with reports of even faster times from last year. Washington is still recovering from offseason labrum surgery and his arm right now is comparable to those of Coco Crisp, Johnny Damon, and Shannon Stewart; he also struggles with reads in centerfield, only partially making up for it with his speed. He’s a tools player with limited feel for the game, reminiscent in build and play of Jay Austin, Houston’s second-round pick in last year’s draft who has yet to show any offensive ability in pro ball in over 400 plate appearances.”

JUCO does not allow for any easy comparisons to pro-ball—the talent is just too diverse.  Some JUCO players are just as good as any in a dominant Division 1 conference, and just opted for JUCO due to grades or pro aspirations.  But mixed in with the huge, Bryce Harper talents, are 18 year old kids who aren’t prospects of any sort.  For this reason, the numbers can deceive, but here are Washington’s stats from this season’s campaign:

The first thing that strikes me?  He walks more than he strikes out, which, at any level, tells me that the kid can control the strikezone.  Obviously, the ability to take a walk and make contact make him a great on-base guy.  But on top of that, he doesn’t appear to be making weak contact when he does swing: he’s slugging nearly .600; for reference, he was third on his team in slugging percentage (but also, by far, the youngest player on the team).

The tools are certainly there for Washington, the question will be whether he can overcome the adversity that will come with better competition and a potential position change.  Back when the Indians drafted Trevor Crowe, there was similar talk about moving him to the middle IF, but Crowe proved incapable, and has since settled in as a 4^th OF at best.  Washington has more upside than Crowe for sure—he’s younger, more athletic, and faster—but he also has the potential to flame out if he fails to put those skills to good use.  Regardless, the Indians look likely to sign him, so they believe that he can be a part of the team moving forward.  For an organization that has been loathe to draft much risk over the past decade, I’d say this one qualifies.

The MLB draft is such a mixed bag: you’re not likely to draft a player that can impact your team immediately.  By my count, there are only three players from last year’s draft currently in MLB.  On the other hand, it’s certainly a place to locate cheap, long-term talent, just ask the Braves and Jason Heyward (#14), or the Phillies and Chase Utley (#15), or the Rays and Evan Longoria (#3), or the Cardinals and Albert Pujols (#402!).

Did we get any steals in the 2010 draft?  What’s the old joke about mating an elephant and a rhino?  Eliphino!  Only time will tell, of course, but if you’re still paying attention to the Indians at this point, that means you’ve got some hope left in you for the future.  And we all know that the future is built on young, controllable talent.  Here’s dreaming on Pomeranz’s changeup and Washington’s speed: see you in a few years, guys.