Unanswered Prayers: Trevor Hoffman to DL?
March 23, 2009While We’re Waiting… Pat White Gets a Tryout, Dwyane Wade to the Line
March 24, 2009
If the Browns can’t trade down, maybe they should just pass for a while and then pick later. This is the conclusion that I am aiming to prove. Now, I know that isn’t really the proper way to go about doing analysis. Still, this is the burgeoning philosophy that has been forming in my brain for the last few years. And it is a natural conclusion for a Browns fan. Tim Couch, Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren are exhibits A-C.
Obviously it is easy to take the other side of the argument as well. Joe Thomas was taken high in the first round and has been worth every penny of his top-five draft money. But, unless you see another Joe Thomas surefire, slam dunk draft pick on the board, you are asking for trouble drafting that high because of the contract demands. I would argue that there isn’t a surefire pick in this year’s draft. There is no quarterback that I am dying to have. There isn’t another offensive tackle that I am dying to have. Maybe I am ignorant, but Orakpo and Curry don’t even blow my mind. Crabtree is probably the closest thing to a sure thing from what I can see, and that seems too high to take a wide receiver, even for these receiving-challenged Browns.
Obviously, the real goal is to trade down, but what if that opportunity doesn’t present itself? Should the Browns be unable to trade down, would it be worthwhile to just pass on the number five pick and wait a few picks and pick lower where the risk / reward ratio is a bit more balanced? If, as I am guessing, the Browns feel this is a weak draft, then they should by all means pass. They should sit and wait until the draft dollars are more reasonable for the talent level that can be acquired.
Let me provide some evidence. I looked at all the first rounders from last season and figured out their contracts as best as I could from various sources around the internets. A really valuable resource was RotoWorld.com. The only contract that is a complete guess is Branden Albert, the offensive guard for the KC Chiefs. There was absolutely no info available, so I looked at the previous offensive lineman and slotted it as best I could. The validity of these numbers down to the dollar really isn’t the issue anyway. The point is illustrated perfectly without 100% accuracy. I will be talking about guaranteed dollars mostly. Overall contract values aren’t very realistic because most of them include ego-boosting bonuses or incentives that will never be reached.
Last year’s draft featured Miami’s #1 pick of Jake Long to be their franchise left tackle. From Jake Long with the first pick in the draft to the last pick in the first round, Kenny Phillips, the guaranteed dollar drop off is 82.8%. We all know there is also a huge talent drop between Jake Long and Kenny Phillips. From Jake Long to the 5th player in the draft was a 26.7% drop in guaranteed money. Does it seem like there is a 26.7% talent drop between Jake Long and Glenn Dorsey? Maybe. That was last year when there was a clear cut #1 on the board. This year there doesn’t seem to be that consensus pick sitting at the top of the draft.
More importantly, let’s examine the gap from #5 and #10. The reasoning being, if there isn’t a clear cut #1, then there sure shouldn’t be a clear cut #5.
#5 to #6 there is a 4.5% gap in guaranteed annual dollars
#5 and #7, an 11.4% drop
#5 and #8, a 21.9% drop
#5 and #9, a 40.9% drop
#5 and #10, a 37.3% drop
#5 and #11, a 42.7% drop
In plainer terms, Glenn Dorsey’s guaranteed contract at #5 is paying him $4.4 million per season while #10 Jerod Mayo’s deal is paying him guaranteed $2.76 million per year. Of course both players stand to make more than that with incentives and bonuses and things like that.
Still, in a salary cap business like the NFL the difference in contracts ($1.7 million guaranteed or $6.4 million with incentives) does not equal the talent drop from pick to pick. Teams who consistently have to pick in the top of the draft are at a disadvantage in the game of football with the salary cap and the risk / reward in drafting that high. The cap for 2008 is estimated to be about $116 million. If you spent every dollar in the cap in a given year that means on average you would pay each player $2.189 million per year. So you can see if you draft Jake Long and he turns out to be a bust rather than a franchise player, he isn’t carrying the load you expected and he costs you as much as three average players. In a game where such a factor of success is health and depth, you can’t afford too many busts in the draft.
Which brings us back to the Browns. There is no telling how far set back the Browns were over the years by having busts in the first round with Tim Couch, Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren. Just consider that for each one of those, not only were we not getting any production out of their spots, we were probably sacrificing depth due to the astronomical amounts of money they accounted for under the cap. In essence the draft process in the NFL forces teams who can nary afford to be wrong to ante up more money in a process that doesn’t reward risk nearly as much as it should.
I hate to do this to you Browns fans, but here’s the deal. The Pittsburgh Steelers draft well, but they also never draft at the top of the board. Rashard Mendenhall was a relative bust for them last year. He played sparingly in four games and got hurt. By their standards that is a bust. At pick #23 he cost them $1.425 million in guaranteed dollars. And look at the history of #1 draft picks by the Steelers and you see why they won the Super Bowl this season. 2006 they selected Santonio Holmes at #25. 2005 they selected Heath Miller at #30. 2004 they selected Ben Roethlisberger at #11. 2003 they selected Troy Polamalu at #16. The three years before that they selected Kendall Simmons #30, Casey Hampton #19, and Plaxico Burress at #8. In the case of Plaxico, they let him play out his rookie deal and let him walk before ever paying him bigtime free agent dollars. How smart do they look today?
The point is that good teams obviously draft well, but they rarely have to play the game of drafting in the top of the first round, where you push in an inordinate amount of chips for a relatively small pot. It isn’t a smart poker strategy. It is with this in mind that I wonder if the Browns should just watch their pick go by for 3-4 slots until they can get better value for their drafting dollars.
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2008 NFL draft picks with estimated guaranteed money and estimated total money if all incentives and bonuses were earned. Neither column represents actual cap values due to the fact that some contracts are front-end loaded and weighted in different ways with bonuses. I treated every salary as a straight line per year average. That means that inherently the values on this table are all wrong, but it provides an accurate monetary comparison for my purposes.
| Pick | Team | Player | Guaranteed Annual | Total Annual |
| 1 | Miami | Jake Long – OT | 6,000,000 | 11,500,000 |
| 2 | St. Louis | Chris Long – DE | 4,350,000 | 9,600,000 |
| 3 | Atlanta | Matt Ryan – QB | 5,791,667 | 12,000,000 |
| 4 | Oakland | Darren McFadden – RB | 4,333,333 | 10,000,000 |
| 5 | Kansas City | Glenn Dorsey – DT | 4,400,000 | 10,200,000 |
| 6 | NY Jets | Vernon Gholston – DE | 4,200,000 | 10,000,000 |
| 7 | New Orleans | Sedrick Ellis – DT | 3,900,000 | 9,800,000 |
| 8 | Jacksonville | Derrick Harvey – DE | 3,435,000 | 6,680,000 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | Keith Rivers | 2,600,000 | 3,833,333 |
| 10 | New England | Jerod Mayo | 2,760,000 | 3,780,000 |
| 11 | Buffalo | Leodis McKelvin | 2,520,000 | 3,880,000 |
| 12 | Denver | Ryan Clady – OT | 1,902,500 | 2,458,333 |
| 13 | Carolina | Jonathan Stewart – RB | 2,159,000 | 2,800,000 |
| 14 | Chicago | Chris Williams – OT | 1,840,000 | 2,546,000 |
| 15 | Kansas City | Branden Albert – OG | 1,656,000 | 2,291,400 |
| 16 | Arizona | Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | 1,500,000 | 2,666,667 |
| 17 | Detroit | Gosder Cherilus – OT | 1,772,000 | 2,500,000 |
| 18 | Baltimore | Joe Flacco – QB | 1,750,000 | 6,000,000 |
| 19 | Carolina | Jeff Otah – OT | 1,478,000 | 2,866,000 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay | Aqib Talib | 1,640,000 | 2,800,000 |
| 21 | Atlanta | Sam Baker – OT | 1,600,000 | 2,600,000 |
| 22 | Dallas | Felix Jones – RB | 1,533,000 | 2,105,000 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | Rashard Mendenhall – RB | 1,425,000 | 1,971,000 |
| 24 | Tennessee | Chris Johnson – RB | 1,400,000 | 2,400,000 |
| 25 | Dallas | Mike Jenkins | 1,350,000 | 1,945,000 |
| 26 | Houston | Duane Brown – OT | 1,240,000 | 1,820,000 |
| 27 | San Diego | Antoine Cason | 1,736,000 | 2,406,000 |
| 28 | Seattle | Lawrence Jackson – DE | 1,728,000 | 2,250,000 |
| 29 | San Francisco | Kentwan Balmer – DT | 1,200,000 | 1,600,000 |
| 30 | NY Jets | Dustin Keller – TE | 1,199,000 | 1,700,000 |
| 31 | NY Giants | Kenny Phillips | 1,034,300 | 2,230,000 |
17 Comments
You forgot to mention that Mendenhall also got robbed before the season started.
Very interesting take, I hadn’t thought of this. Out of ignorance ( apparently), I thought that Minnesota lost their picks that they failed to act on.
pragmatic reasoning, Craig. Sort of a “moneyball” type of approach to drafting.
While I agree with the reasoning behind the philosophy in waiting to draft in order to pay less for a player and get the same sort of talent level… any smart agent is going to contend that the Browns took, say hypothetically three picks after our pick, would claim that their player was still selected with the 5th draft and still attempt to get that money for their client so now we would be left with a lesser talent for about the same price
Easier said then done. Even if the Browns did pass and pick at say #12, you can bet the agent will do all in his power to get the player #5 money. That is the only thing that worries me about trading down.
I remember the Vikings did this, accidentally or not, a couple years ago when they drafted one of the Williams they have on their D-line. They waited like 3 picks before drafting him or something. Now I am not entirely sure about what happened so hopefully someone has a better memory than I or actually looks it up, but I thought he held out for the money he would have earned if he were drafted in the Vikings original position, instead of taking the normal money for the position he actually was picked in. So if thats the case, then it wouldn’t really matter. But maybe it isn’t, who knows
I agree about your analysis on the way the Steelers draft though. The same can be said about the Ravens and Patriots for the most part. Although if the Browns hit big time on this draft pick, I’m sure none of us will care how much he is making
I’ve long thought this; we need an OLB, a CB, a RB, and a safety. There isn’t one good enough to take at 5. Why take someone we don’t need as for a ton of money instead of someone we need for less money? Plus, if we hold out and move down we may find more trading partners. No one wants to trade into the top 5, but they may want to trade into bottom half of the top 10.
i see that we have david patten again.
Craig
Nobody wants high draft choices. They cost too much guaranteed dollars, hence they are untradable downwards. Second round choices and low first rounders are very valuable because these are good players at low money. Every team hopes to trade down, but these are infrequent occurences in the NFL and should not be considered a viable strategy. It just will not happen.
Lets plan on what the Browns are stuck with. the number 5 pick.
I just don’t see a solid pick at 5 either. Curry’s long gone by then, and there really aint anyone else I see the Browns needing that high. Crabtree maybe, with the rumors swirling about Braylon going to the Giants, but I’m a little sketchy on him as well.
this is why you dont draft for need, you draft the best available player. We should 100% draft crabtree and go after our needs in the 2nd round, that of course is contingent on not trading down.
Yeah there is no way this would work unfortunately. I would be all for it if it did. I know Quinn’s agent wanted more money than the slot he went because they had considered taking him at 3 where they got Thomas. Every agent worth his 3 percent commission would push his guy to sit out and force the Browns to pay the 5 slot money anyway, so why deal with it. If Crabtree is there and Curry gone, we probably have to take him.
I think the browns need to just go for the best available guy on their board. It gets a little too tricky when drafting on need, and hopefully Mangini notcied that last year with Vernon. Kokinis is from baltimore though, and they usually get the best guy on their board, so hopefully that philosophy is brought to Cleveland. A side note, I doubt that guy will be crabtree even if he’s the best, and I wouldnt mind him there, but I think they might narrow it more to best available who is a ‘lock’. If Curry is there then I think he’s the guy, but if not, it could be Raji, and that could be a solid DL. Heck, that other guy (Savage) had an eye for talent, and he did understand that the game can be won in the trenches. Raji would make the browns DL one of the best, and their OL isnt bad either (if you just look at the left side).
I understand the logic here, but this is NOT the year to do it, given the Browns’ position. For a number of reasons, the Browns should be able to nab the draft’s best player (Crabtree) at the 5th spot; this is the definition of value, and has only happened due to a rare confluence of factors:
-The Lions are desperate for QB help and have been burned by too many high draft picks at WR in the past, meaning they will reach for Stafford
-The Rams are in dire need of an o-tackle and are almost certainly going to take Jason Smith
-The Chiefs and Seahawks both have top notch receivers (Bowe and Housh) and have too many other needs to grab one in the top 5
Crabtree is an absolute stud; so what if he’s “only” 6’1″.5 and may not run the greatest 40 in the world. Many of the league’s elite receivers didn’t have blazing fast 40’s, because there’s a difference between track speed and playing/route running speed. Anyone who watched a single college FB game should be DROOLING over the possibility of the Browns getting Crabtree. And oh yeah, even if we don’t trade Braylon this year (almost certain), we’re not going to re-sign him next year.
In sum, if you have a chance to take the best player in the draft at the 5th spot, you take him…regardless of need. But oh yeah…we also need him.
I e-mailed back with Paul Zimmerman two years ago on the aforementioned topic. His thought was this looks so much like a cost-saving move.. his arguement was EVERY self-respecting agent would say “you waited 2 picks deliberately, you are going to have to pay the money for that spot.”
Sort of when you trade-up for a player, the player usually get’s a bigger deal since they know you wanted him so bad you traded up for him.
I love the idea but practically it is worthless.
What happens if multiple teams pass on their picks. Let’s say the Browns do indeed let the #5 pick slide. The Bengals are then on the clock and they also decide to let time expire on their pick. Are the Browns then back on the clock, or does the team in the 7 spot then leapfrog them both? If that happens, are the Browns then stuck behind the Bengals, or do they go back to the original order? I can’t see this happening, but it is possible. I wonder if the NFL has thought this out?
Yep, the #7 team could jump in. This actually almost happened the 1st year the Vikes screwed up. Literally the team after them was all disoriented and had to re-think their pick.. then they made their pick… then the Vikes we’re still fumbling around, and then JAX tried to jump in and the Vikes guy literally threw the index card with the pick into the NFL guy’s hand about 1 second before the JAX guy could. So, once you use all your allotted time, you can jump in at any time and make your pick.
This just reeks of a disoriented franchise and I think although it may make financial sense, it destroys your cred with all agents and players. We can’t afford any more of that although I think we’re doing better.
Bottom line, the NFL needs to fix the rookie scale. The Patriots have 4 picks 28-75 range. They will get the $$$ = to our 5th pick. I’d rather have the 4.