Cracks in the Armor?
January 5, 2009Baltimore Cares None For Randy Lerner’s Rush
January 5, 2009With the Cleveland Indians about 40 days from starting up spring training, much of the talk regarding the team will revolve around their off-season moves. Perhaps this is why there wasn’t much off-season talk around this time last year? Regardless, Mark Shapiro (whether he’ll admit it or not) learned from last season’s mistakes of laurel-resting and hit the ground running. Whether with Kerry Wood, Joe Smith/Luis Valbuena or Mark DeRosa, I think we can all agree that our General Manager has been managing since season’s end.
But the one glaring spot – that I’m sure he would have liked to address – was the starting rotation. The bulk of the free agent money was spent on acquiring Wood. The residual would have to have either been split between SP and INF, or Shapiro would have to choose one or the other. When DeRosa was acquired, his salary dictated the latter and the Tribe will be forced to go to battle with our starting rotation the same as it was during game #162.
A few things to consider:
1.) After trading away C.C. Sabathia, the Indians went 44-28
Read: After trading away a player who was unhittable in the second half of the season and went on to sign a ridiculous contract, the Indians won over 60 percent of their baseball games. Granted, this was done mostly in part to huge performances by guys like Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis, but also in part to Jensen Lewis getting the job done at the back end. Asdrubal Cabrera and Ryan Garko started hitting like major league baseball players, and obviously Cliff Lee was simply amazing. But at the end, the team that we have going into 2009 is largely the same one that we had at the tail end of 2008. But…
2.) We should have a fully healthy line-up
While we had to have the abovementioned players step-up, there will be guys playing in April of this season that were not there last year. The elephant in the room is Travis Hafner; no pun intended. Having Pronk (and to a point Victor Martinez) back should provide a decent boost to this team. Jhonny Peralta should remain in the clean-up spot, and should have the protection of a guy that received MVP consideration not all that long ago. Our top-down batting order will be considerably better than that during the majority of last season – this should make things a bit easier on our rotation.
3.) We still have Kelly Shoppach
Our biggest trading piece coming into the off-season was our back-up catcher that raked at a high level last season. Most teams’ starting catchers cannot hit as well as Shoppach, so a trade at this point may still not be out of the question. But consider that even if we retain Shoppach (which seems more and more likely by the day, given Shapiro/Eric Wedge’s love for having options behind the plate as well as catcher first base), we acquired some large pieces to our puzzle without betting our biggest chip. Given our injuries last season, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to need Kelly’s services this year – even if his value will likely never be higher.
4.) Speaking of options, the back-end of our rotation is full of them
Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona and Anthony Reyes appear to be locked into the one-two and three spots. Until Jake Westbrook returns (all indications point to July), we have a slew of guys that could be filling in the back end: Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson, David Huff, and Scott Lewis. Jackson is out of options, and may just (sadly) wind up as our fifth starter unless we cut ties. Laffey (one option remaining), Sowers, Lewis and Huff have to be on the radar of several MLB teams due to their upside/lefty combo. One of them will slot into the fourth slot – pending any other acquisitions – with the rest starting just down I-71. That’s not a bad position to be in.
5.) Mark DeRosa could wind up being a Type A Free Agent
Given to the top 20 percent of all free agents, assuming the Tribe and DeRosa part ways after 2009, we will be awarded two draft choices. Consider that the first round draft pick has the potential to be better than all three players that were traded away, this could wind up being an even bigger part of the deal that will ultimately be gauged in terms of value come next September. C.C. Sabathia was a Type-A FA. While obviously not on the same level, the season that DeRosa has could mean just as much to the Indians in 2009 as someone of Sabathia’s skill level. Using the two-year average, DeRosa already has a solid foundation from which to build. Thus, spending the money on a multi-position player with this type of upside may have been that much better.
Obviously, we can revisit all of this when the off-season is oficially over. Though FA money is pretty much gone, the trading market is still open of business. Shoppach or any of our young lefties (and likely Ben Francisco) are all tradable assets. Let’s see if Shapiro can continue rolling in the same direction as we head into March.
16 Comments
“…given Shapiro/Eric Wedge’s love for having options behind the plate as well as catcher)…”
Umm, what? Is there another position that plays behind the plate? Are we spending money on umpires now?
“…assuming the Tribe and DeRosa part ways after 2008, we will be awarded two draft choices in 2009…”
1:00 on 1/5… whoever had that at “first forgetting it’s actually already 2009” in the pool wins the cash!
(and apparently, whoever had ME as “first WFNY writer to be a jerk to another writer in the comments” in the pool ALSO wins the cash…)
Scott is just a marked man because he’s an Ohio State fan.
I originally thought they’d keep the Zach Attack around as a long man, because with the iffy 3, 4, and 5 spots, you may need one, but who does that leave out? The pen appears to be is set with Wood, Perez, Betancourt, Smith, Lewis, Masa, and Adam Miller. Maybe you keep Miller in Columbus for a while. Who knows.
Cant wait for the season to start…Im so over Browns talk. I bleed Red, White, and Blue.
Thanks, DP – fixed. Let me know if I can get a re-grade.
Todd, all valid points. They could turn Zach into the long reliever – lets just hope it works out better than the Jason Davis experiment…
#4 Chris
I have been zinged, and I like it.
I’m anxious to wait on starting Miller’s big league clock until it’s necessary. I’d love to leave him in C-bus for a few months to get acclimated to the ‘pen.
@DP being the first WFNY writer to be a jerk…
I got ya beat. I called out Rick for calling his article bullet points with no bullets. There was absolutely no reason for me to comment that, but I went ahead and did so anyway.
Jerk = Me
Three things I do not like:
1. Lee is not going to pitch like that again. He could have a great season and still lose 4-6 more games.
2. I think relying on Westbrook for much of anything is a bad idea. Plus when he comes back he’s going to be a 5-inning Paul Byrd type. That’s a pretty surgery to come back from….
3. I need to see more of Reyes and others. The 3, 4, & 5 spots are all up for grabs. YIKES!
I like the team at large but I think we all need to be more realistic how unsettled this rotation (even Carmona to a degree) is.
Agreed BC. Bill James forecasts Carmona to be like 8-8 this year…
@DP: How “New York” of you to want all of the hot prospect players in Columbus…
@Scott: DP just wants the hot Indonesian prospects in Columbus.
TEBOW IS NOT WELCOME IN COLUMBUS!!
Carl Pavano is done for a one year deal with the tribe. Who knows, if he stays off the injury list maybe we’ll be a solid pitcher in the 4 spot
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