Zoom LeBron Six: Limited Edition – Updated
October 27, 2008Indians Could Stand Pat
October 28, 2008The Cleveland Cavaliers played their first preseason game at home on October 7th against the Toronto Raptors and their first regular season game is October 28th against the Celtics in Boston. That gives us a less than a month until the season is officially underway, and so we will use the next week or two previewing the NBA season making predictions that will surely not even be remotely close to coming true.
Next up is the Eastern Conference, and we continue with the Southeast Division.
1. Orlando Magic
Players Lost:
-Carlos Arroyo, G (FA – Israel)
-Maurice Evans, G (FA – Atlanta)
-Keyon Dooling, G (Trade – New Jersey)
-James Augustine, F (Waived)
-Pat Garrity, F (Retired)
Players Added:
-Courtney Lee, G (Draft)
-Mickael Pietrus, G (FA – Golden State)
-Anthony Johnson, G (FA – Sacramento)
-Dwayne Jones, C (FA – Cleveland)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Jameer Nelson (10.9 pts, 5.6 assists, 0.91 steals)
SG Mickael Pietrus (7.2 pts, 0.7 assists, 1.00 steals)
SF Hedo Turkoglu (19.5 pts, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists)
PF Rashard Lewis (18.2 pts, 5.4 rebounds, 0.47 blocks)
C Dwight Howard (20.7 pts, 14.2 rebounds, 2.15 blocks)
Bench:
Anthony Johnson, PG
Keith Bogans, SF
Adonal Foyle, C
J.J. Redick, SG
Tony Battie, PF
Courtney Lee, SG
Mike Wilks, PG
Brian Cook, PF
Jeremy Richardson, SF
Marcin Gortat, C
Analysis:
The Magic are a bit of an enigma. The starting lineup, with the exception of maybe Pietrus, is outstanding. Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard each made the leap last year, and Turkoglu and Lewis were both incredibly solid last year as well. The Magic rode their starting lineup to an impressive 52-30 record. I have some concerns about the constitution of this year’s roster, though. The losses of Carlos Arroyo and Keeyon Dooling were tough losses, leaving Anthony Johnson as the only serviceable backup to Jameer Nelson. I’m not so sure Pietrus for Maurice Evans was really an upgrade. There’s no real backup for Howard. In fact, there’s not a single player on Orlando’s bench that anyone else is going to be worried about. I loved Courtney Lee in my draft coverage and I still would have liked to have seen him wind up on the Cavaliers, but he’s still unproven at this point. Last year the Magic were 6th in scoring and 11th in defense. Anytime you have Dwight Howard down low, your defense is going to be fine, and there’s still plenty of scoring in this starting lineup. It’s just the serious lack of depth that bothers me. The good news for the Magic, though, is that they are overwhelmingly by far the class of their division. With the injury problems in Washington, the unknown nature of the Heat, and the weakness of the Hawks and Bobcats, the Magic should still be able to run away with this division. An injury to any of their starters (and it’s almost certainly bound to happen), and the Magic may see a slight regression this year.
Projected Record: 51-31 (4th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Orlando Magic Blogs:
Third Quarter Collapse
Orlando Magic Blog
Believing In Magic
Orlando Magic Fan
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Thu, Jan 29th – Away – TNT
2. Tue, Mar 17th – Home – FSNOH
3. Fri, Apr 3rd – Away – ESPN
2. Washington Wizards
Players Lost:
-Roger Mason, G (FA – San Antonio)
Players Added:
-JaVale McGee, C (Draft)
-Juan Dixon, G (FA – Detroit)
-DerMarr Johnson, G (FA)
-Linton Johnson, F (FA – Phoenix)
-Taj McCullough (FA)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Gilbert Arenas (19.4 pts, 5.1 assists, 1.77 steals)
SG DeShawn Stevenson (11.2 pts, 3.1 assists, 0.79 steals)
SF Caron Butler (20.3 pts, 6.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists)
PF Antawn Jamison (21.4 pts, 10.2 rebounds, 0.43 blocks)
C Etan Thomas (DNP)
Bench:
Andray Blatche, C
Antonio Daniels, PG
Darius Songaila, PF
Nick Young, SG
Dominic McGuire, SF
Juan Dixon, PG
JaVale McGee, C
Dee Brown, PG
Oleksiy Pecherov, PF
Brendan Haywood, C
Analysis:
I guess the Wizards’ team motto is “If at first you don’t succeed, try try again.” This roster has had precious little turnover in the past few years as they continue to try and try again to make it through a whole season with everyone healthy and their version of the “Big 3” intact. Last season the Wizards overcame a plethora of key injuries and still managed to make the playoffs with a 43-39 record. They were 14th in scoring and 12 in points against. This season, they’re going to deal with injuries again. Star PG Gilbert Arenas will miss at least half the season. Starting center Brandan Haywood had a huge breakout season last year, but will miss 4-6 months at the minimum this year. Antawn Jamison has already been banged up in the preseason. I just don’t see this ending well. For one thing, it’s a little confusing as to why the Wizards keep trotting out this exact same team year after year and then wonder why they keep getting the same results. Butler and Jamison are 2 absolute studs and they form the heart and soul of this team, but the pieces around them aren’t working. The loss of Roger Mason is a bigger deal than people realize, and an already thin bench, the injuries to Arenas and Haywood are huge. Daniels is an able backup, but what if he gets injured? What happens if Etan Thomas gets hurt? Or, heaven forbid, Jamison or Butler get hurt? I’m not sold on how good this team is even at full strength, but dealing with the existing injuries will be too much for this team to overcome.
Projected Record 36-46 (8th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Washington Wizards Blogs:
Bullets Forever
Truth About It
Wizznutzz
DC Sports Blog
Gilbertology
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Thu, Dec 25th – Home – TNT
2. Sun, Jan 4th – Away – NBA TV
3. Thu, Apr 2nd – Away – TNT
4. Wed, Apr 8th – Home – ESPN
3. Miami Heat
Players Lost:
-Ricky Davis, G (FA – LA Clippers)
-Jason Williams, G (FA – LA Clippers)
-Earl Barron, F (FA – Italy)
-Bobby Jones, F (Waived)
-Stephane Lasme, F (Waived)
-Matt Walsh (Waived)
Players Added:
-Michael Beasley, F (Draft)
-Mario Chalmers, G (Draft)
-James Jones, F (FA – Portland)
-Yakhouba Diawara, F (FA – Denver)
-Jamaal Magloire, C (FA – Dallas)
-Eddie Basden (FA)
-Tre Kelley (FA)
-Omar Barlett (FA)
-Shaun Livingston, G (FA – LA Clippers)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Chris Quinn (7.9 pts, 3.0 assists, 0.77 steals)
SG Dwyane Wade (24.6 pts, 6.9 assists, 1.71 steals)
SF Shawn Marion (14.3 pts, 11.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists)
PF Michael Beasley (Rookie)
C Udonis Haslem (12.0 pts, 9.0 rebounds, 0.37 blocks)
Bench:
Dorell Wright, SF
Mario Chalmers, PG
Mark Blount, C
Yakhouba Diawara, SF
Daequan Cook, SG
Joel Anthony, PF
Marcus Banks, PG
Jamaal Magloire, C
Shaun Livingston, PG
James Jones, SF
Analysis:
If you can figure out what this Heat team is going to be like this year, then major props to you. New coach Erik Spoelstra will have his hands full trying to figure this roster again. And “new” coach is the right phrasing, for sure, as Spoelstra is facing his first head coaching gig at any level outside of D-League action. The good news is that he’s spent over a decade with the team in various capacities, and he know this roster well and he knows the franchise well. Preparation may not be an issue for him, but trying to figure out how to mold this collection of players into a playoff team will be. Last year, Dwyane Wade limped through 51 games with the Heat before shutting down his season. The Heat ended the year at 15-67 and used the #2 pick to grab starting PF Michael Beasley out of Kansas State. With the return of a healthy Wade and a motivated Marion, the Heat hope they have a dynamic trio of players they can use to make the leap in one year from lottery favorite to playoff contender. It won’t be easy. Wade showed us all at the Olympics in Beijing that he’s healthy and ready to go, but one can’t help but wonder if that extra wear and tear won’t end up catching up with him at some point this season. Already in this preseason Wade has been hampered by what he has classified as weakness in his surgically repaired knee. The sooner Mario Chalmers is ready to go, the sooner this team will make the leap. Nothing against Quinn, who is a decent enough player, but he shouldn’t be a starting PG in the NBA, at least not yet. He’s not the complete package the Heat need. They were 30th in scoring last year, and while some of that can be attributed to Wade’s absence, a lot of it is also poor ball movement at the point of attack. Chalmers should be a significant upgrade at PG once he proves he’s ready to go and can carry the load. I’m always hesitant about teams that lack low post presences. At 9 rebounds and 0.4 blocks per game, Haslem does not scare many opposing centers. The Heat were 14th in points against last year, and a good portion of the problem with their defense was at PF and C. Now, with Beasley coming in, the Heat will have to hope he can use his athleticism to give the Heat the kind of low post defensive identity they need to get into playoff contention. I could see this team winning anywhere from 28 games to 43 games without much surprise, but I think to expect more than a 20 game improvement in one season is asking a lot. I think it’s much more likely that the Heat will settle in at around 35 wins.
Projected Record: 35-47 (9th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Miami Heat Blogs:
Miami Heat Sun-Sentinel Blogs
On The Beat
Crazy From The Heat
Peninsula Is Mightier
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Sun, Dec 28th – Home – FSNOH
2. Tue, Dec 30th – Away – FSNOH
3. Mon, Mar 2nd – Away – NBA TV
4. Sat, Mar 7th – Home – FSNOH
4. Charlotte Bobcats
Players Lost:
-None
Players Added:
-D.J. Augustin, G (Draft)
-Alexis Ajinca, C (Draft)
-Shannon Brown, G (FA – Chicago)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Raymond Felton (14.4 pts, 7.4 assists, 1.22 steals)
SG Jason Richardson (21.8 pts, 5.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists)
SF Gerald Wallace (19.4 pts, 6.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists)
PF Emeka Okafor (13.8 pts, 10.7 rebounds, 1.68 blocks)
C Nazr Mohammed (9.3 pts, 6.9 rebounds, 0.85 blocks)
Bench:
Jared Dudley, SF
Ryan Hollins, C
Matt Carroll, SG
D.J. Augustin, PG
Andre Brown, PF
Sean May, PF
Adam Morrison, SF
Alexis Ajinca, C
Shannon Brown, SG
Jermareo Davidson, PF
Analysis:
The Bobcats are a team much like the Grizzlies were last year to me….a young, enigmatic team full of fascinating parts that fit together in a way that should make them incredibly fun to watch once all those parts learn how to fit together. Fun to watch, but deadly to play against. But the Grizzlies never figured out how to put it together and it all fell apart. The Bobcats are at a similar fork in the road. Are they ready to finally become a playoff team, or will they be doomed to blow it up and start all over again with a brand new rebuilding phase? The Bobcats will certainly be hoping for the former, and that’s why they have brought in Larry Brown to try to get this lineup figured out and working right. Make no mistake about it, there is a lot of talent on this team. Their record last year of 32-50 is somewhat intriguing. They were 19th in scoring and 20th in points against. Their level of persistent mediocrity is a sight to behold. How can a team with so many good players be so average? Injuries and a lack of defensive focus are 2 primary culprits. I would imagine that the Bobcats will be a better defensive team this year just on the merits of Larry Brown alone. Plus, Emeka Okafor is an outstanding defender and Richardson and Wallace are quick, athletic defenders who can create chaos on defense. Richardson and Wallace are also excellent offensive players and they will be the keys to this team this season. Wallace provides the flexibility in the lineup that will allow Larry Brown to play with different lineups to create mismatches for opponents. If he wants to go small, Wallace can play PF to allow 3 perimeter shoots on the court. If Felton can stay healthy, the Bobcats will have really nice depth at PG with the addition of D.J. Augustin in the draft. If this team stays healthy, I really think this could be a playoff team, but alas, the lack of frontcourt depth after Okafor, May and Mohammed will become a serious issue once Okafor and May experience their yearly injury troubles.
Projected Record: 34-49 (10th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Charlotte Bobcats Blogs:
Queen City Hoops
BobcatsPlanet
Rufus On Fire
Bobcat Bonfire
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Thu, Oct 30th – Home – FSNOH
2. Sat, Dec 6th – Away – FSNOH
3. Wed, Jan 7th – Home – FSNOH
5. Atlanta Hawks
Players Lost:
-Josh Childress, F (FA – Greece)
-Salim Stoudamire, G (FA – San Antonio)
-Olumide Oyedeji (Waived)
Players Added:
-Maurice Evans, F (FA – Orlando)
-Thomas Gardner, G (FA – Chicago)
-Othello Hunter, F (FA)
-Randolph Morris, C (FA – New York)
-Flip Murray, G (FA – Indiana)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Mike Bibby (14.1 pts, 6.5 assists, 1.06 steals)
SG Joe Johnson (21.7 pts, 5.8 assists, 1.02 steals)
SF Marvin Williams (14.8 pts, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists)
PF Josh Smith (17.2 pts, 8.2 rebounds, 2.8 blocks)
C Al Horford (10.1 pts, 9.7 rebounds, 0.94 blocks)
Bench:
Maurice Evans, SF
Flip Murray, SG
Zaza Pachulia, C
Acie Law, PG
Solomon Jones, PF
Randolph Morris, C
Speedy Claxton, PG
Othello Hunter, PF
Mario West, SG
Thomas Gardner, SG
Analysis:
I’ll give the Hawks an ‘A’ for effort. They tried to improve themselves by acquiring Mike Bibby in a midseason trade last year, and they rode their talented, if not unorthodox, lineup to a 37-45 record and into the playoffs where they shockingly pushed the Boston Celtics to 7 games in the first round. The Hawks were as average as average can be last year, though. They were 15th in scoring and 15th in defense. They got into the playoffs as the 8 seed, which is right in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings. And then in the offseason, they lost one of their key players in Josh Childress when he bolted for Greece. The Hawks signed a couple decent players in Mo Evans and Flip Murray, but otherwise, this just looks like a team ready to take a giant leap backwards this year. Bibby looked old in the playoffs and he was completely outplayed by Rondo. Bibby will have to find the fountain of youth and/or just play better in general this year if the Hawks are to do anything. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith are 2 of the absolute best players in the Eastern Conference, but I’m just not sold on the rest of this roster. The backups look weak, there’s not a lot of size and rebounding, not a lot of defense. The Hawks were a fun, exciting team last year, but a lot of their momentum sailed away into the sunset along with Childress. That defection seemed to deflate this whole franchise, and I just don’t see them bouncing back into any kind of playoff contention again this year.
Projected Record: 31-51 (12th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Atlanta Hawks Blogs:
Hawks Blog | ajc.com
Right Down Peachtree
Hawks BasketBlog
Sports Page Atlanta
Peachtree Hoops
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Sat, Nov 22nd – Home – FSNOH
2. Sat, Dec 13th – Away – FSNOH
3. Sun, Mar 1st – Away – FSNOH
4. Sat, Mar 21st – Home – FSNOH
Next up will be the Central Division.
Previous Previews:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
Pacific Division
Southwest Division
EASTERN CONFERENCE
2 Comments
Orlando’s looking as good as ever. I think Hedo will regress a bit from last season, but with the depth at the wing, it won’t matter.
Why isn’t DeShawn Stevenson in bold? Oh wait, because he blows, that’s right.
For fantasy sake, I’m hoping your projection of Quinn starting for Miami is correct.
I’d love to get G Wallace on the Cavaliers…they could use a Wally, right?
No Josh Childress means this is Marvin Williams’ year to shine.
That is all.
As of yesterday, Quinn was still officially listed as the starter on their depth chart, but all indications are that Chalmers has been outstanding for the Heat so far and he is actually challenging for the job. We’ll see who wins out, but I’d still give Quinn the slight leg up on the job.