Percentage Points: A CAVS Interview With Rock

All you complainers spoke too soon.  🙂

I already had a Cavs post in the works.  And the brilliant thing about it is that all I did was come up with questions and emailed them to our own basketball expert, RockKing.  Then I put them up and I get credit for the article even though he supplies all the meat and potatoes.  Pretty sweet deal, huh?

Alright.  On with the questions.  I asked Rock to give me the percentage chance of certain things happening this Cavs season and he gives me the predictions.  It will be a good piece to keep in mind so we can either tell Rock he is brilliant or completely wrong by the end of the season.  I give him a 74.2% chance of being brilliant based on his responses.

1. What percentage chance is there that Sasha Pavlovic ends up being a consistent contributor to this Cavs team this season? And do you expect him to end up being a starter, reserve or have even less of a role by season’s end?

90%… Look, Sasha is perhaps the worst basketball player on this team. He’s only had one good season in his entire career, and as of late, it seems like he always has some kind of nagging injury to overcome. But, for whatever reason, Mike Browns seems to love this guy. He plays significant minutes … meaningful minutes… regardless of how much he can hurt the team at times. Now, Sasha has shown that he truly is capable of playing very good defense. He’s bigger than Delonte and he’s quicker than Wally, which will give him the edge when Brown needs his 2 to play tough defense. If Sasha embraces the role of defensive specialist, his minutes will increase. If he doesn’t, he’ll still be a consistent contributor, but probably in smaller doses. By season’s end, I think his role could increase if Wally is traded for a big man. That will leave a lot of minutes open for the taking.

2. What percentage chance is there that the Cavs don’t coast through this season and what are the three biggest factors in determining whether they coast or not?

65%… How often does LeBron tell us what a leader he is? It’s a lot. So, with that in mind, it’s up to LeBron to make sure nobody is coasting. I don’t think this team coasts this year. The three biggest reasons I feel this way?

1. Pressure to win from the top. Danny Ferry and Dan Gilbert know that they need this team to make huge strides while we’re still 100% guaranteed LeBron is on this team. With that said, Ferry will not tolerate a team that is coasting, and if it begins to happen, he will turn up the pressure on Mike Brown to get through to these guys.
2. LeBron remembers. After Game 7 against Boston last year, I saw LeBron look the most devastated I have ever seen him look. I promise you that if you were to ask him in a candid setting, he would tell you that if that game were in Cleveland, the Cavaliers would have won that series. LeBron realizes how important home court is the NBA Playoffs, and I really believe he’s going to keep motivating his team to play for a chance to get the #2 seed and ensure home court in the 2nd round.
3. Finally, the players themselves. In the past, when the Cavs have coasted, it’s been with guys like Larry Hughes (who has admitted he doesn’t care about winning) and Drew Gooden (a guy I always liked, but was prone to falling asleep and making mental errors on the court an awful lot). Now, with guys like Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Ben Wallace, the culture has changed. These are all exciting players who bring a lot to the table and are not known for laziness. I think everyone around this team can feel the Championship weight in the air, and I think they are going to band together and play good, focused basketball all year.

3. What percentage chance do the Cavs have of keeping all of their big men healthy for the entire season?

15%…This one sort of depends on your definition of healthy. I would bet almost anything that not one of the trio of Z, Ben, and AV plays in all 82 games. Ben Wallace has chronic back problems, Z has admitted that part of the reason the Cavs wouldn’t let him go to Beijing was because of his own back issues, and AV has only played in 55 games or more in one season once. These guys are going to have their injury issues, and they will miss some time. The key for this team will be to never have 2 of them hurt at the same time. The Cavaliers can work around one of them being out, but if 2 of them are out, the Cavs are going to be in big trouble as that will mean either Hickson has to play before he’s ready or Lorenzen Wright is going to playing significant minutes, and that just doesn’t do anyone any good.

4. What percentage chance is there that the offense will end up with LeBron dominating the ball again?

49%… This number would be much higher were it not for Mo Williams. I really think a lot of people are incorrectly playing down the significance of Mo being on this team. The Cavs have never had a PG they trusted to run the offense. Larry Hughes played there out of position, Gibson isn’t a good enough ball handler, Damon Jones was pretty bad at setting up the offense, Jeff McInnis was a shoot-first PG who never seemed to even try to fit into this offense, and Eric Snow’s abilities were just too diminished by the time he got to Cleveland. But what Mo Williams can do is not only initiate the offense, but he can create offensive opportunities as well. He’s far from being in the same class as CP3 or Deron Williams, but who cares. Guys like that are tough to get on your team. Ultimately, it all falls into LeBron’s hands, though. It’s up to him. Mo Williams can handle the job if LeBron lets him. But Mo, like everyone else, still defers to LeBron. When he comes up to the top of the key and asks for the ball, he gets it. So there’s still a good chance that in tough spots LeBron will revert to old habits. The hope, though, is that Mo can earn LeBron’s trust and we won’t have to go through that again.

5. What percentage chance is there that this team will remain in good spirits with so many players vying for playing time down the stretch of games? Obviously guys like Gibson, West, Pavlovic, Varejao, and even Szczerbiak could be trying to get on the floor at the end of games, and we know that LeBron and Mo Williams will be on the floor, so…

99%…. I love the chemistry of this team. Winning always cures what ails you, so as long as the team is winning, there’s not going to be any disruption anyway. The Cavaliers left Damon Jones rotting on the bench, and we all know how much DJ loved to talk, but he kept his mouth closed most of the time and he rarely made any kind of waves. He accepted his role because for the most part the Cavs were winning. The good news is, that even if the Cavs aren’t winning, I don’t think you’ll hear any complaints about playing time. LeBron is the ultimate professional and he’s always careful not to cause distractions, and the rest of the guys always follow his lead on this matter. These guys are, for the most part, young and energetic players who all get along great both on and off the court. LeBron is great at keeping the locker room loose and fun, and guys always seem to buy into it. The last guy I can remember openly complaining about his playing time or how he was being used was Larry Hughes, and he was subsequently traded the next year. I don’t see a loss of playing time being an issue, as least publicly, for any of these players.

6. After seeing the pre-season, what percentage chance is there that JJ Hickson contributes right away? Is it possible that he could be to the Cavs this year what Big Baby was to the Celtics last year?

5%… I love Hickson’s energy, effort, and hustle. I love how ferocious he is on the boards, he’s technical in trying to always box someone out on every shot, and he never ever gives up on plays. Those traits are going to someday make Hickson a really, really good player in this league. But he just doesn’t have the defensive fundamentals to play for Mike Brown yet. Brown is going to be as patient as he can with the young 20 year old, and until Hickson can fit into the team-defense scheme the Cavaliers play without being a liability, his role will be limited. I do think Hickson will get there this year, and I think he’ll be a big part of the Cavaliers’ playoff run, but to contribute right away? I don’t see it happening, short of injuries to other players.

7. What percentage chance is there that the Cavs underperform this year and Mike Brown finds himself on the hot seat?

1%… Never say never, you know? But even if the Cavaliers win 42 games and have the 5th or 6th seed as some “experts” are predicting, I don’t think that’s enough to put Brown on the hot seat because even then, the Cavs will still play tough in the playoffs. But to be completely honest with you, I just don’t see this team underperforming (I just knocked on wood, to be safe). I can’t recall a Cleveland team I have been this excited for since the late 90s Indians teams. This is a serious Championship contender we have, and this team is going to be out to prove it this year. That’s just my gut feeling.

8. What percentage chance is there that Wally Szczerbiak will be on this team after the trade deadline?

30%… I think there a few things that could keep Wally in Cleveland. One thing will be a simple matter of what’s available. Ferry cannot afford to make a trade just for the sake of making one. There’s no guarantee that there will be an impact player that the Cavs need who will be available. Second, the Cavaliers could decide they don’t want to take on any more long term salary and they want to keep as much salary off the books for 2010 as they can, so they might decide to just let Wally’s contract expire. It would ease the luxury tax burden on Gilbert and it would give Ferry more long term cap flexibility. Finally, there’s a small, minute chance that Wally actually plays really well this year and the Cavaliers decide they don’t want to part with him and they want him in the postseason. Wally gives the Cavaliers some nice size at the 2 and he’s able to fill in at the 3 when the Cavs need him. He has some things to offer to this team, and if he plays well enough to become an integral part of the rotation, I could see Mike Brown wanting to keep him. But in the end, I still think there’s an overwhelming chance that Szczerbiak is moved at the deadline. I think this is the Ferry really tries to swing for the fences and goes for it all.

9. What percentage chance is there that Eric Snow is ever able to live down his wife DeShawn’s appearance on “Real Housewives of Atlanta” on Bravo?

??%… As intrigued as I am by this, I don’t get Bravo and have never seen Real Housewives, so I can’t speak as to what he needs to live down, but I would imagine if he could convince someone’s wife to be a contestant on “Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader?” would go a long way toward helping. I’m just saying…

10. What is the percentage chance that the Cavs will get the number 1 seed in the east this season?

0%… I know the Atlantic Division is really tough with Toronto and Philly both improved, but Boston is still the class of the East. The loss of Posey and the one extra year of age aren’t going to be enough to stop them from winning more than 55 games this year, and Cleveland just has too far to go in one year to win that many games. You could argue that Boston might be prone to coast with their Championship hangover, and I can see that point of view, but at the same time, have you ever seen KG play basketball? That guy is as intense as they come and he’s not about to be satisfied with one championship. He wants another one, and his intensity and focus just oozes on to his teammates. Short of a season ending injury to Pierce or Garnett, the Celtics will be the East’s number one seed.

11. What percentage chance is there that LeBron will win the MVP? How much of the award do you think is actually dependent on your teammates?

11.11%…. I give LeBron a 1 in 9 chance, because I think LeBron, Elton Brand, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Kobe, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, and Tim Duncan all have a chance to be serious MVP candidates. If the 76ers challenge the Celtics for the Atlantic Division, Brand has a good chance of winning it. If the Magic come out and play even better than they did last year, Howard will get a good look. If the Heat have a resurgence back to playoff contender, it would be hard to vote against Wade. If the Jazz get the #1 seed in the West, Williams will get a lot of votes. If the Blazers sneak up and take the division, it will be because of Brandon Roy. If the Spurs come out and just dominate this year and prove they’re not finished yet, Duncan will be a big part of that. A lot can happen, and for LeBron to win MVP, I think the Cavaliers have to push 53-55 wins. So that’s where your teammates come into play. We learned last year that if your teammates are bad, you’re not an MVP candidate. LeBron had an historic season last year, and nobody gave him the slightest MVP consideration. In all the scenarios I listed above, they all depend on the teammates pushing the superstar. MVP in the NBA is definitely a team award these days.

12. What percentage chance is there that the Cavs could pick up one of the other team’s last minute cuts? If any, which make your mouth water?

20%… They could, but I don’t see anyone that I really love. Austin Croshere would have been a guy the Cavaliers might have trusted to give them depth (Mike Brown was in Indiana with Croshere, so there’s a connection there), but no, none of the cuts really excite me. The closest one would be Malik Hairston, a guy out of Oregon who was drafted in the 2nd round by Phoenix and traded to San Antonio, but the Spurs cut him on Sunday. I always thought whenever I saw him in college he looked like a guy with some skills. He’s an excellent shooter which the Cavaliers can never have enough of, and he’s an unselfish player who plays good defense, all traits Mike Brown likes. He’s also a big guy, and we know how much Mike Brown likes his big SGs. But really, the Cavaliers have plenty of combo guards as it is, and they need Jawad Williams’ ability to play the 3 or the 4, so I don’t see them going after Hairston. As for the available big men, there just isn’t anyone who really excites me. I’d rather see the Cavaliers stick with Williams, a player who went through camp with all these guys and a guy who LeBron is friends with.