Percentage Points: A CAVS Interview With Rock
October 28, 2008Browns Are Early Favorites, For Once
October 28, 2008This is it. This is what we’ve been waiting so patiently for. The Cleveland Cavaliers kick off the 2008-09 season tonight in Boston against the Celtics. We’ve been running division previews for the last month, and now we’re to the division you really care about, the Central Division. Will the Pistons win the division yet again and maintain their supremacy over the rest of us, or is the year the Cavaliers finally take the throne? Lets get to it…
1. Detroit Pistons
Players Lost:
-Jarvis Hayes, F (FA – New Jersey)
-Theo Ratliff, C (FA – Philadelphia)
-Juan Dixon, G (FA – Washington)
Players Added:
-Deron Washington (Draft)
-Kwame Brown, C (FA – Memphis)
-Will Bynum, G (FA – Israel)
-Trent Plaisted, F (Trade – Oklahoma City)
-Walter Sharpe, F (Trade – Oklahome City)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Chauncey Billups (17.0 pts, 6.8 assists, 1.29 steals)
SG Richard Hamilton (17.3 pts, 4.2 assists, 1.01 steals)
SF Tayshaun Prince (13.2 pts, 4.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists)
PF Antonio McDyess (8.8 pts, 8.5 rebounds, 0.68 blocks)
C Rasheed Wallace (12.7 pts, 6.6 rebounds, 1.68 blocks)
Bench:
Amir Johnson, SF
Jason Maxiell, PF
Rodney Stuckey, PG
Arron Afflalo, SG
Kwame Brown, C
Walter Hermann, SF
Will Bynum, PG
Walter Sharpe, PF
Alex Acker, SG
Cheikh Samb, C
Analysis:
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Not much has changed with the Detroit Pistons. Sure, they’re breaking in a new coach and that always adds an element of the unknown, but this is the same ol’ starting lineup everyone else in the East is sick and tired of facing and losing to. The Pistons were 59-23 last year, and there’s little reason to think all that much will be different with them. They were 17th in scoring and 1st in defense last year, and those numbers should be about the same this year. This isn’t a team that’s going to score a lot, they prefer a bit of a slower pace, and they will rely on suffocating opponents with their defense. Similar to the Celtic’s style of defense, the Pistons will attack you on the perimeter and then rely on McDyess and Wallace to clean up on the blocks. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it, I guess. But Joe Dumars does have his eyes on fixing things. He has said he won’t make a move just for the sake of it, but he is going to be looking around for any trades he thinks can make this team better. Rasheed Wallace is said to be a player on the block, and Billups’ name was floated around in some offseason trade rumors. This very well could look like a different team come April, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Pistons have been remarkably healthy over the last half-decade, and if that continues this season, there’s a chance this team could match their win total of a year ago. But with an increasing age and not a ton of depth on this team, and with a new coach and a grace period to get used to him, I am predicting the Pistons have a natural regression and fall back to the rest of the Central just a bit.
Projected Record: 55-27 (2nd in the Eastern Conference)
Key Detroit Pistons Blogs:
Need4Sheed
Detroit Bad Boys
PistonsNationBlog
Detroit Pistons Full-Court Press
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Wed, Nov 19th – Away – FSNOH
2. Sun, Feb 1st – Away – ABC
3. Sun, Feb 22nd – Home – ESPN
4. Tue, Mar 31st – Home – FSNOH
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
Players Lost:
-Dwayne Jones, C (FA – Orlando)
-Damon Jones, G (Trade – Milwaukee)
-Joe Smith, F (Trade – Milwaukee)
Players Added:
-J.J. Hickson, F (Draft)
-Tarence Kinsey, F (FA)
-Lorenzen Wright, C (FA – Sacramento)
-Jawad Williams, F (FA)
-Darnell Jackson, F (Trade – Miami)
-Mo Williams, G (Trade – Milwaukee)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Mo Williams (17.2 pts, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals)
SG Delonte West (10.3 pts, 4.5 assists, 1.12 steals)
SF LeBron James (30.0 pts, 7.9 rebounds, 7.2 assists)
PF Ben Wallace (4.2 pts, 7.4 rebounds, 1.68 blocks)
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (14.1 pts, 9.3 rebounds, 1.64 blocks)
Bench:
Wally Szczerbiak, SG
Anderson Varejao, C
Daniel Gibson, PG
Sasha Pavlovic, SG
J.J. Hickson, PF
Tarence Kinsey, SF
Lorenzen Wright, C
Darnell Jackson, PF
Jawad Williams, PF
Analysis:
Where to begin? This Cavaliers roster is the deepest roster and has the most talent on it of any team in the LeBron James era. That’s just a fact. But the Cavaliers won’t win games on that fact alone. There is still much work that needs to be done. Last year, the Cavaliers really limped out of the gate, and then started turning it on after the midway point. Then came the massive trade and it took the Cavs some time to figure out their new teammates. In the end, the Cavaliers wound up with a 45-37 record despite having a pythagorean win total of only 40 games. There are several reasons why I think the Cavaliers will be much better this year. First of all, they were 24th in scoring last year and 9th in defense. I think they can be better in both categories this year. Offensively, the addition of Mo Williams means the Cavaliers should see their pace increase a bit, leading to more scoring opportunities per game. They were 24th in Pace last year, and if we are to buy into the preseason hype about the offense pushing the ball more with Williams, then you would expect that number to increase. There are tons of assists to be had on this team between LeBron, Williams, and West. Improved ball movement with the extra dynamics of the backcourt will help as well. Furthermore, the Cavaliers are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, particularly on the offensive end, which will still lead to plenty of 2nd chance opportunities. On defense, having Ben Wallace for a whole season will help the defense. Look, we all know Ben isn’t the same player he once was. But on his good days, he’s still a very effective defender and rebounder, and he’s certainly a defensive upgrade from Drew Gooden. Despite his reputation in Milwaukee, Mo Williams has already shown in preseason that he’s capable of playing decent defense, and Delonte West, though undersized, is an incredibly tenacious defender. Then you throw in Varejao off the bench and this is a frontcourt that, while shallow, is still able of playing truly great defense. Ilgauskas is not as quick as he once was, but he still has the ability to block shots and alter shot attempts. You can’t go into the paint without being aware of where his enormous 7’3″ body is.
Coming off the bench, it will be interesting to see what Szczerbiak can bring this year. When on, he and Daniel Gibson are capable of forming a duo of deadly sharp shooters just waiting to make teams pay for focusing too much on LeBron. The Cavaliers only truly glaring weakness is frontcourt depth. While none of the backcourt guys are true All-Stars, they are all solid players who bring different intangibles and can be mixed and matched in any way Mike Brown wants. If LeBron is able to give some steady minutes at PF, he will reduce the imapct of the lack of frontcourt depth. The Cavaliers can go to a lineup with Mo, Gibson, West/Szczerbiak/Pavlovic, LeBron, and Z/Andy/Wallace to get whatever kind of matchup they are looking for. All of this, of course, depends on Mike Brown’s coaching and his ability to be creative with the offense. We saw glimpses of the many different looks he can throw out there in the preseason, and the hope is that he was able to learn which matchups work best when and where. The Cavaliers are a team built for the playoffs, and it would be nice to get home court advantage in the 2nd round this year. To do so, though, a lot of things will have to go their way. They will have to stay healthy at every frontcourt position, including LeBron. The backcourt must find ways to limit their individual deficiencies. Mike Brown must be able to give this team some kind of offensive identity, whatever that identity may be. Most importantly, this team must be at their best defensively all year long and not wait until the 2nd half to turn it on. If all these things happen, and if the Cavaliers can be a top 5 defensive team, then I believe this team could win up to 54-55 games or so and challenge for the Central Division. Assuming there will be some injuries and focus issues like there always are with this team, though, I’ll set the number slightly below that.
Projected Record: 52-30 (3rd in the Eastern Conference)
Key Cleveland Cavaliers Blogs (Other than us, of course):
Cavalier Attitude
And One
Cavaliers Corner
George Thomas’ ABJ Cavs Blog
3. Indiana Pacers
Players Lost:
-Kareem Rush, G (FA – Philadelphia)
-Flip Murray, G (FA – Atlanta)
-Jerryd Bayless, G (Trade – Portland)
-Nathan Jawai, F (Trade – Toronto)
-Ike Diogu, F (Trade – Portland)
-Jermaine O’Neal, C (Trade – Toronto)
Players Added:
-Brandon Rush, G (Draft)
-Roy Hibbert, C (Draft)
-T.J. Ford, G (Trade – Toronto)
-Rasho Nesterovic, C (Trade – Toronto)
-Jarrett Jack, G (Trade – Portland)
-Josh McRoberts, F (Trade – Portland)
-Maceo Baston, F (Trade – Toronto)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG T.J. Ford (12.1 pts, 6.1 assists, 1.1 steals)
SG Mike Dunleavy (19.1 pts, 3.5 assists, 1.05 steals)
SF Danny Granger (19.6 pts, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists)
PF Troy Murphy (12.2 pts, 7.2 rebounds, 0.43 blocks)
C Rasho Nesterovic (7.8 pts, 4.8 rebounds, 0.7 blocks)
Bench:
Jeff Foster, C
Jarrett Jack, PG
Marquis Daniels, SG
Maceo Baston, PF
Stephen Graham, SF
Brandon Rush, SG
Roy Hibbert, C
Travis Diener, PG
Josh McRoberts, PF
Jamaal Tinsley, PG
Analysis:
Call me crazy, but there’s a lot to like about this Pacers team. Obviously PER is far from the ultimate authority on player’s performance, but how many teams have a starting lineup with all 5 guys above the league average in PER? Not many, that’s for sure (the actual answer is 2….Dallas and Utah). Last year the Pacers were 36-46, but they made some nice moves to fix their biggest issues. They brought in 2 really good PGs in Ford and Jack to displace Tinsley and his team-killing style of play. By getting Nesterovic back in the O’Neal trade, they made sure they could try to replace Jermaine with a committee of Nesterovic, Foster, Hibbert, and Baston. Last year the Pacers were 7th in scoring and 26th in points against. This team can score with anyone. They are just loaded with sharpshooters. Dunleavy, Granger, and Murphy are all lights out shooters. When Foster is healthy and in the lineup, they will surround him with shooters while Ford and Jack initiate the offense and make you pick your poison. This is not to say there aren’t plenty of questions about this team. Can Ford stay healthy? Will this team play a lick of defense? Where will the rebounds come from on this team? Can a team win without a real post presence? If Hibbert can give the Pacers anything at all, this will be a team worth watching all year. No matter what, they will be a team that will be fun to watch and a team that will annoy the heck out of you as they drill 3-pointer after 3-pointer on you. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but this team intrigues me, and I think this looks like a playoff team.
Projected Record: 43-39 (7th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Indiana Pacers Blogs:
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Fri, Nov 7th – Home – FSNOH
2. Fri, Dec 5th – Home – FSNOH
3. Tue, Feb 10th – Away – FSNOH
4. Mon, Apr 13th – Away – FSNOH
4. Chicago Bulls
Players Lost:
-Shannon Brown, G (FA – Charlotte)
-Chris Duhon, G (FA – New York)
-JamesOn Curry (Waived)
Players Added:
-Derrick Rose, G (Draft)
-Elton Brown, F (FA)
-Roger Powell, F (FA)
-Darius Washington, G (FA)
-Omer Asik, C (Trade – Portland)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Derrick Rose (Rookie)
SG Thabo Sefolosha (6.7 pts, 1.9 assists, 0.88 steals)
SF Luol Deng (17.0 pts, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists)
PF Drew Gooden (14.0 pts, 9.3 rebounds, 1.28 blocks)
C Aaron Gray (4.3 pts, 2.8 rebounds, 0.26 blocks)
Bench:
Ben Gordon, SG
Joakim Noah, C
Tyrus Thomas, PF
Andres Nocioni, SF
Kirk Hinrich, PG
Larry Hughes, SG
Demetrius Nichols, SF
Michael Ruffin, PF
Cedric Simmons, PF
Analysis:
I don’t know, I just don’t get it. What direction are the Bulls going in? What kind of team are they trying to be? Why do they choose to bring their best players off the bench rather than start them? The good news for the Bulls is the arrival of Derrick Rose. Rose is going to be a great player for years to come. But this year, he’ll just be leading a team full of mismatched pieces and underperforming players. The chemistry is bad, they have a new coach, and they don’t have a true go-to guy on offense other than Ben Gordon, who was threatening to not return to the Bulls all offseason. It’s like one big soap opera. Last year the Bulls 18th in offense and 16th in defense and they finished the year with a 33-49 record. Outside of drafting Rose, the Bulls didn’t really do anything else to improve themselves other than re-sign Deng and Gordon. To me, this looks like a team that is going to see much more of the same this year. The one nice thing about the Bulls is their versatility. When they need tough defense, they can bring in guys like Noah, Thomas, Nocioni, and Sefolosha. When they want more scoring, they can team up Gordon, Deng, Nocioni, and Gooden. There are plenty of options here for new coach Vinny Del Negro, the problem is this team still has the same issues it had last year, which is too many similar style players at the same positions. I don’t see much change in the Bulls this year at all.
Projected Record: 33-49 (11th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Chicago Bulls Blogs:
Blog a Bull
Thank You Isiah
Bull Riding
Top Ten Chicago Sports
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Wed, Nov 5th – Home – ESPN
2. Sat, Nov 8th – Away – FSNOH
3. Fri, Jan 2nd – Home – FSNOH
4. Thu, Jan 15th – Away – TNT
5. Milwaukee Bucks
Players Lost:
-Royal Ivey, G (FA – Philadelphia)
-Bobby Simmons, F (Trade – New Jersey)
-Yi Jianlian, F (Trade – New Jersey)
-Mo Williams, G (Trade – Cleveland)
-Desmond Mason, G (Trade – Oklahoma City)
-Joe Smith, F (Trade – Oklahoma City)
Players Added:
-Joe Alexander, F (Draft)
-LucMbah a Moute, F (Draft)
-Malik Allen, F (FA – Dallas)
-Tyronn Lue, G (FA – Dallas)
-Francisco Elson, C (FA – Oklahoma City)
-Richard Jefferson, F (Trade – New Jersey)
-Damon Jones, G (Trade – Cleveland)
-Luke Ridnour, G (Trade – Oklahoma City)
-Adrian Griffin, G (Trade – Oklahoma City)
Projected Lineup (Players with +Average PER last year in bold):
PG Luke Ridnour (6.4 pts, 4.0 assists, 0.6 steals)
SG Michael Redd (22.7 pts, 3.4 assists, 0.90 steals)
SF Richard Jefferson (22.6 pts, 4.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists)
PF Charlie Villanueva (11.7 pts, 6.1 rebounds, 0.46 blocks)
C Andrew Bogut (14.3 pts, 9.8 rebounds, 1.73 blocks)
Bench:
Tyronn Lue, PG
Charlie Bell, SG
Dan Gadzuric, C
Malik Allen, PF
Luc Mbah a Moute, SF
Joe Alexander, SF
Francisco Elson, C
Ramon Sessions, PG
Damon Jones, PG
Analysis:
I have to start this one by saying…..poor Michael Redd. He doesn’t deserve this team. Last year the Bucks had some talent, but they pretty much gave up on their coach and the team just tanked their way to 26-56 record. So, the Bucks brought in Scott Skiles to give the team focus and defensive intensity. But here’s where it gets weird. They made the trade to bring in Jefferson, giving them a really nice starting lineup with Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Andrew Bogut. But then they decided they needed to get rid of a “defensive pariah” like Mo Williams….so they traded him to Cleveland and brought in Luke Ridnour. I must have missed when Ridnour became an even adequate defensive player. I would take Mo Williams’ defense any day over Ridnour’s. I don’t see how this year’s team is any better than last year’s team. Yes, Richard Jefferson is a very good player, and Michael Redd is a true All-Star, and Bogut made some strides last year. But there is no depth on this team at all, they have no PGs, there’s not much rebounding prowess, and there’s still not much defense. They’ll be better defensively, but I still don’t see them being good in that area. Yes, they’ll get some scoring out of Redd, Jefferson, and Bogut. But all in all, I just don’t get this team either. Much like the Bulls, I don’t see the identity, and I don’t see what they’re trying to accomplish here. This is going to be a torturously long season for the Bucks, and I feel bad for Michael Redd. I just do.
Projected Record: 23-60 (15th in the Eastern Conference)
Key Milwaukee Bucks Blogs:
Brew Hoop
The Bratwurst
Bucks Diary
The Bob Boozer Jinx
When The Cavaliers Play Them:
1. Tue, Nov 11th – Home – FSNOH
2. Sat, Nov 29th – Away – FSNOH
3. Fri, Feb 20th – Away – FSNOH
4. Wed, Mar 4th – Home – FSNOH
Previous Previews:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest Division
Pacific Division
Southwest Division
EASTERN CONFERENCE
3 Comments
If the Bulls are below the Pacers at season’s end they should be ashamed. They have WAY more talent. As we’ll see in CLE, a solid PG solves a ton of problems and Rose will do that. I am sure Rose will also get drilled and miss 10-15 games due to his slight frame but he will be a difference maker. Man, imagine how good the Bulls would be if they kept Tyson Chandler and not signed Big Ben.
When the Bulls 2nd string plays their 1st string…who usually wins? I doubt anyone could see much of a difference.
Also, why would you draft a great pushing PG like Rose, then put all your fliers to come off the bench. Replace Hinrich with Rose and make that your starting 5 and then you have an identity. Starters push the tempo, are super-aggressive on defense to create turnovers and transitions. Then, the 2nd string comes in and slows things down to throw the other team off balance.
Nevermind, noone tell Chicago. Let them flounder.
Don’t feel bad for Redd. He had his chance to come play with LeBron and he hasn’t been in the playoffs since.