On The Bright Side
June 2, 2008Injuries or Excuses?
June 2, 2008Before I get started, here is a quick statistical breakdown of Grady Sizemore’s 2008 season thus far (team rank in parenthesis, minimum of 100 ABs):
At-bats: 209 (1st)
Hits: 54 (1st)
Runs: 32 (1st)
Doubles: 11 (1st)
Home Runs: 11 (1st, tied)
RBI: 30 (1st)
Total Bases: 102 (1st)
Walks: 33 (1st)
Stolen Bases: 13 (1st)
On-Base Percentage: .371 (1st)
Slugging Percentage: .488 (1st)
Batting Average:.258 (2nd)
Take a second to soak in all of those “1’s.”
While I haven’t done much digging, are there any other players that have that sort of cut-above production when compared to the rest of their team? Most players have just the power side, or the on-base/speed side…but both? Being Five-tool, and leading your team in every major statistical category are two totally different things. Think of the top players that are considered “five tool,” and then think of where they bat in their team’s order. The numbers above may be a testament to just how poorly this Cleveland Indians team is hitting, but we know that Sizemore is no slouch.
While I realize that you typically want your speed threat and on-base guy to bat first or second in your lineup, there comes a point where you’re simply doing a disservice to your team, as well as your fans, to have your leader in HR, 2B, RBI, and OPS at the top of your lineup.
Sizemore hit his 11th home run of the season on Sunday; and while this pales in comparison to the power leaders of the rest of Major League Baseball, you have a Cleveland Indians team that is struggling to put up runs as a whole. Why not take the chance of putting someone – anyone – ahead of him in the line-up, to set up a possible multi-run opportunity?
Sizemore’s career batting third does not give us much of a sample, but from what we’ve seen in the past, it is hard to imagine why he has been limited to this point. In 41 plate appearances, Grady is hitting at a clip of .281/.439/.594 with two doubles and two home runs. Instead of a revolving door that is currently occupied by Ben Francisco (thanks to Travis Hafner hitting the DL), Sizemore has the skill-set to be the third hitter in this lineup for the next several seasons.
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The arguments against moving Sizemore to the third slot may vary.
If he’s batting third, you take away his base-stealing opportunities. This is true, to a point. If Grady gets the chance to steal second, you invariably take the bat out of the hands of Victor Martinez. But given the fact that this team is in dire need of runs, having two guys on base at any time is a step forward from what we’re currently seeing out of the Indians. Plus, it may be worth considering that Sizemore historically steals more bases in the first half of the season (61) than the second half (31). Just food for thought.
If he bats third, who leads off? This very may well be the million dollar question. Technically, Francisco is second on the team with a .347 OBP, but due to only having 92 at-bats, he’s been somewhat cast aside for the statistical portion of this argument. Plus, he doesn’t exactly have the speed that you may want from a lead-off guy – despite his two stolen bases on the year.
It’s a sad display, but the best OBP from a non-heart-of-the-order guy is Casey Blake with .311 – and he’s typically found in the eighth or ninth slot in the order. Shin-Soo Choo has potential due to his speed, but he will need to prove himself at the bottom before he’ll get a shot at the top.
The other option that comes to mind: Josh Barfield. Yes, he’s in Triple-A, but he has an OBP above .300, which is a start. He has speed, as seen in his team-leading eight stolen bases, and already has the experience at the Big League level. The opportunity cost would be the dissipation of Jamey Carroll’s (.330 OBP, 86 AB) at-bats, but so be it. Could Barfield take a few more walks from time to time? Sure, as his K/BB ratio is 44/12. But when you’re dealing with very few options, Barfield doesn’t seem that bad.
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How much longer is this team willing to give Travis Hafner to break out of his funk? When he returns, will he automatically get the third spot back? If so, Francisco will likely bat second when Ryan Garko plays, or fifth when he doesn’t. Say Hafner does turn it around. Doesn’t a middle lineup of Sizemore-Martinez-Hafner-Francisco seem a little better than Hafner-Martinez-Garko-Peralta? Heck, even if you want to move Francisco ahead of Grady at the two-hole, it is still head and shoulders above the latter.
If Hafner doesn’t right the ship, you still have your two best players batting back-to-back, allowing for a higher possibility of multiple hit innings…and perhaps the occasional run or two. If it’s the lefty bat you like in front of Victor, Grady has that covered as well. Call me crazy, but I think this just might work.
So while we sit and wait for the Indians to go out and acquire that middle of the lineup power hitter, why not consider using the one that we currently have, but refuse to place in the middle of the lineup? What’s the worst that could happen? We lose nine of twelve?
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10 Comments
How many #3 hitters are batting .258?
How many teams have an offense worse than the Indians?
Sounds like something interesting to try. The leadoff spot really is the key. I think until they get someone to really fill that hole (I don’t think they’ll bring up Barfield), Grady will keep his #1 spot.
Millar (BAL) – .236
Ortiz (BOS) – .252
Griffey (CIN) – .255
Cantu (FLA) – .271
Kent (LAD) – .244
Cust (OAK) – .248
Sanchez (PIT) – .242
Vidro (SEA) – .236
Rios (TOR) – .262
Wow, the post steroid era has really taken its toll.
“Wow, the post steroid era has really taken its toll.”
true, HR’s are down like crazy, but what ever happened to plucking a few singles here and there and actually getting a run or 2 across the bag? i agree that steroids have a lot to do with the poor hitting across the league, but its not like every team is losing 8 of 11.
our problem at the beginning of the season: couldn’t hit at all.
our problem now: can’t hit with men in scoring position. if you want a positive, at least we’re making progress. now we just have to bring them home.
Wait, so you’re proposing that we take the guy who is clearly our best hitter… and give him fewer at bats? How is that not even mentioned as a downside?
What’s next? Casey Blake batting first and second? Are you Eric Wedge in disguise?
Yeah, the team will definitely score more when Grady comes up with the bases empty and 2 outs than when he leads off.
If that’s the logic, should Victor bat second?
what’s the difference if grady comes up with bases empty and no outs or bases empty and 2 outs? the 2,3,4 guys are hitting no better than the 4,5,6 guys. i agree with matt that casey blake batting 1st or 2nd is scary, but putting grady in the cleanup sounds like an experiment worth taking at this point
Should Victor bat 2nd? Yes. At least more Yes than Grady not batting first. Victor is a high average, reasonably high obp, low slugging hitter right now. Where else do you put that?
My dream lineup has:
#1: The high obp complete player. He’s a good enough hitter that you want him maximizing at bats.
#2: High obp / low power guy. I just want a guy who won’t make outs.
#3: Combo of obp and power. If the #1 guy isn’t your best hitter, #3 is.
#4: Starts the tilt towards SLG over OBP.
Let 1 through 3/4 get on base however they can while 4/5-9 hack away with league average OBP and relatively high power numbers.
In 33 AB with RISP, Sizemore is hitting .303 with 20 RBI and a 1.012 OPS. His BA on Balls In Play with RISP is .308. With RISP Grady strikes out 18% of the time, but with the bases empty he strikes out 23% of the time. For those reasons I think its worth trying to move Grady down to #3. What does the Indians offense have to lose?
But you know what’s disgusting? That Grady is hitting .258 and that’s 2nd on the team. Ouch.