Dellucci Does Levitation
April 16, 2008Browns Made A Huge Mistake, Pause, Not
April 16, 2008
Most of you probably know by now, but in case you haven’t heard, Rafael Betancourt will be taking over the closer’s role for Joe Borowski while he heads to the DL. You’ll have to excuse me while I beat a dead horse here for a minute, because I know I’ve said this before, but I want to reiterate it again, I think this is a mistake on several levels.
First of all, lets consider Betancourt’s past as a closer. For all the negative thoughts I have about the closer position, I will say that it takes a certain mentality to be a closer….a mentality that is different from any other pitcher’s mentality. For all of Joe Borowski’s shortcomings in physical skill, I will give him credit that he certainly has a strong closer’s mentality. He doesn’t let blown saves get to him, and he never lets his last outing impact his next outing. I’m not sure Betancourt quite has that mentality.
For his career, Betancourt has a 2.85 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .228 against him. In non-save situations, Betancourt has a 2.73 ERA and opponents are hitting .222 off of him. Those numbers are extraordinary. As a setup man, there are few better in all of baseball than Betancourt. A funny thing happens, though, when Betancourt is put in save situations. For his career, in save situations, Betancourt’s ERA jumps up to a whopping 3.14 and batters are hitting .240 against him. Now, I realize these numbers are far from horrible, but the point is that he performs significantly worse in the closers role than he does in the setup role. There may be several reasons for this, but it’s hard to get past the mental aspect of being a “closer”. With a guy like Masa Kobayashi, who proved in Japan he had this mentality, sitting in the bullpen, why not let him try to prove he can do it in the States as well? Why is Eric Wedge so quick to hand the job over to Betancourt?
Another reason why I hate to see Betancourt put in the closers role is because of the reduction in innings pitched he is likely to see in this role. I think we all agree that Betancourt is the Indians’ best reliever. So wouldn’t it also stand to reason that we want to see him used as much as possible? Well, that’s unlikely to happen as a closer. If you look at their numbers so far this year, Joe Borowski was used in 5 games and pitched 4.0 innings. Betancourt has appeared in 7 games and pitched 7.0 innings. Going back to last year, Borowski pitched 65.2 innings compared to Betancourt’s 79.3 innings. That’s a difference of almost 2 whole games, which is pretty significant for relievers. In Wedge’s system, the closer is ONLY used in the 9th inning with a 3 run lead or less, or else every once in a while in the 9th inning of a tied game. No more is Betancourt going to be around to help the team carry the lead into the 9th inning. Rather, he will be sitting there waiting and just hoping the other guys in the bullpen can carry a lead to him.
Baseball Prospectus did a study once on scenarios in which relievers had the most impact on the outcome of a game. They found that for the home team, your best reliever can best help the team win in the following situations, in order from biggest impact to smallest:
- 9th inning, 1 run lead
- 9th inning, tied
- 8th inning, 1 run lead
- 8th inning, tied
- 7th inning, 1 run lead
- 7th inning, tied
- 9th inning, 2 run lead
For the road team, the numbers change to:
- 9th inning, 1 run lead
- 8th inning, 1 run lead
- 9th inning, tied
- 8th inning, tied
- 9th inning, 2 run lead
- 7th inning, 1 run lead
- 8th inning, 2 run lead
It’s pretty fascinating to study these numbers. The main implication of this is that, yes, in 1 run games, it is best to save your best reliever for the 9th inning. But more so than that, these numbers would seem to say you might as well use your best reliever in the 8th inning as well. Obviously, you can’t wear out the arm of your best reliever by using him all the time in all the toughest situations. But my point of all of this is that rather than reserving your best reliever in a prescribed manner for the 9th inning with a 3 run lead, it makes much more sense to use him agressively in close games when the best hitters are coming up. If the 3-4-5 hitters are up in the 8th inning of a 1 run game, wouldn’t it make more sense to use your best reliever then, and let your 2nd best reliever clean up the 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th? In my opinion, it most certainly does.
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3 Comments
so if you don’t think Betancourt should be the closer, who do you think should close? I have done no objective analysis but I feel that Perez should be closing. Who knows?
Well, I don’t think there should be a “closer”. I think the bullpen should be fluid and used situationally. But, if there is going to be a “closer”, I’d prefer it be Kobayashi, so Betancourt, Perez, and Lewis can still all be used in their setup roles where they are most effective.
Rock King. We are on the same sheet of music. Not only must we worry about HOW Betancourt adjusts to the new closer role. How will he adjust once Borowski comes off the DL and he has to go back to being the setup man?
With that said… Even though I dislike the move …. who knows maybe it was the right one. The front office pays Wedge more than me to make these tough decisions.
As Tribe fans lets all hope this IS the right decision…
– Betancourt’s closing issues of the past are no longer
– He flourishes in his new role and develops into a dominant closer and…
– Stabilizes our bullpen for the next 4 to 5 years.
Man… Talk about some optimism. Must be the Starbucks…