Does Brady Quinn need to play?
January 29, 2008Johan Santana Sweepstakes Winners
January 29, 2008The Cavaliers are sitting at 24-19, tied with Toronto for the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference. Looking back, the Cavs got off to a rough start without two of the primary pieces from last year’s team. A rough schedule and no Andy Varejao certainly contributed to the Cavs’ 9-6 start. A win against Boston had the Cleveland faithful smiling on the way into Detroit. The smiles would disappear. LeBron’s injury coupled with Varejao’s holdout sent the team on a 6 game slide.
On December 11th, against the Pacers LeBron came back from his injury, and Varejao played his first game after the Cavs matched Charlotte’s contract offer for him. The result was quite spectacular as the Cavs, led by Hughes, James and Andy dismantled the Pacers. It was a short-lived celebration as the Cavs struggled to find the correct rotation, losing 4 of the next 6 games. The Cavs were 12-16 at that point, but started winning when Hughes was moved back to the point, and the bench starting playing productive minutes, with a rotation of Gibson, Varejao and Brown. Starting on Christmas day, the Cavs have played excellent basketball, going 12-3. That stretch has not been against elite competition, but does include road wins over Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers.
Recap aside, how are the Cavs doing? Answer- About the same as last year. Andy Varejao is playing better than ever, but Sasha Pavlovic has taken a step backwards. For whatever reason, Sasha is not hitting outside shots, and isn’t slashing to the basket like he did last year. Daniel Gibson is hitting open looks with regularity, but I have to agree with Charles Barkley’s assessment that by now Gibson should have earned a starting spot. While he was put in that spot early on, he certainly hasn’t earned the right to be more than a spot shooter. He is not capable of running the point, and despite his speed and athleticism, he isn’t able to play consistent defense.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas is playing consistent solid ball. He shoots the ball well, and gives the effort we all have come to expect from the big man. His numbers are up slightly, as has been his playing time, especially with Varejao missing as much time as he has. Drew Gooden still is a bit streaky, but I think he is understanding more and more what the Cavs need from him for the team to be successful.
Larry Hughes continues to be an enigma. There are flashes of the player that we all wanted him to be, but they disappear as quickly as we see them. It is obvious that Larry doesn’t want to run the point, and probably shouldn’t be. He is not a passer, he is a slasher. At times he plays great defense, but there are nights when he seems disinterested. The Cavs are 7-2 when Hughes scores in double digits. Perhaps more telling, they are 8-1 when he shoots better than 40%. (The one loss was the recent Phoenix game.) If Hughes gets going, the Cavs are as close to unstoppable as they can be. For better or worse, the Cavs fate probably lays more in the hands of Hughes than in anyone else.
That includes LeBron James. Look, LeBron is obviously having his best season, and is one of the top three players in the league hands down. He has decided that the fourth quarter is his this season, which is putting to rest most of the knocks against him. But in crunch time LeBron still holds the ball too much. If the Cavs are to be considered a Championship contender, LeBron must have other options, and the offense has to work with him to get the best possible shot for the team. The days of spread the floor and let LeBron win it needs to be over.
If you look at the numbers, the only Cavs that are above the league average in Player rating (PER) are LeBron and Zydrunas. Actually, I’d throw Varejao in that category as well, because he is percentage points behind despite coming off the bench. Hughes and Pavlovic are the worst two starters at their position in the league using the PER ratings. The Cavs rank 27th in the league as a team in assists. That is a mighty condemning number. The three teams below the Cavs are a combined 41-88. The Cavs are tied for first with Houston in rebounding, which comes as no surprise. The defensive numbers are off this season, but those numbers might be a little misleading this season. When the Cavs are at full strength they are still one of the better defending teams in the league.
Would a trade help? Answer- I’m not convinced it would. Let’s say you go get a guy like Jason Kidd. Now, I don’t think that the Cavs can pull off a major trade like this, because I can’t imagine they have enough to trade away. Any trade that nets the Cavs a major dollar player will mean that Larry Hughes would have to be the centerpiece of that deal from the Cavs end. I just don’t see that happening. But let’s pretend the Nets wanted Hughes…does that make the team better? Well, probably, unless we had to give up Gibson to get him. Kidd is not a fantastic outside shooter, and if Gibson goes in the deal that leaves our only outside threat to be Damon Jones. Oh, wait…there’s Donyell Marshall. Like I said, that leaves Damon Jones as the only threat. Now Kidd would be able to get Gooden and Zydrunas better looks I believe, which might make things a little more interesting. I just don’t think that a rotation of James, Gooden, Z, Sasha and Kidd is a guaranteed winner. I would hesitate to give up on Gibson for that line-up.
More than likely is a minor trade for a guy like Damon Stoudamire (yes, I know he would be a signing at this point.) That doesn’t really excite me either, because more than likely we would be giving up one or two expiring contracts to get him (Newble, Shannon Brown, Devin Brown.) Speaking of Devin Brown, you have to be impressed with his play. He is to the offense a little of what Varejao is to the defense. When he comes off the bench for 4 minute stretches he is terrific.
So if the team is about the same as last year, that should be good news right?
That would sound like great news, considering they won the East last season, but there is a new sheriff in town this year. Repeating as Conference champs will be a much tougher road this year. Obviously Boston has put themselves at the front of the class, though they have looked beatable as of late. Boston cannot afford to lose one of their big three to injury. I would say that if they were not at full strength going into the playoffs they would be hard pressed to get out of the second round. While Garnett, Allen and Pierce have done what everyone thought they would do, it is perhaps the surprising play of point guard Rajon Rondo that has them at the top of the leader board in wins.
If the playoffs were to begin now, the Cavs would play the Raptors in the first round, then most likely play the Celtics with the Pistons/Magic winner to follow. Even if the Cavs could continue their hot streak and claim the 3rd seed, they would more than likely have to face Detroit, Boston and either Toronto or Orlando in order to get to the Finals. That is not an easy road. Certainly not as easy as last year’s waltz to the Pistons.
I would give the Cavs a B overall so far this year. They certainly could have been better, but with contracts and injuries hampering them, they have done well to be in the position they are in.
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2 Comments
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Thanks Rupert…